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Indianapolis Colts


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Everything posted by Superman

  1. That's fair, but I didn't have a problem with Leonard because of he was lesser known. It was because I thought he would have been available later in the draft. I think a couple other teams were later connected to him, so he might not have been available. More importantly, he definitely lived up to his draft status, if not, more, as a rookie. The Colts staff was absolutely right to take him where they did, and my concern was unfounded. Maybe a harsh grade for Willis, I like some of his traits, I just think he'll be limited as a cover man (Geathers?), and he's more of an undersized LB than a good DB prospect. If they carve out a role for him, great, but his work in coverage is concerning, and I think it limits his potential. On the trade, I don't think the charts always hold up as gospel, especially when you include a future year's pick, but the trade works on every chart. If you don't downgrade the future pick, the trade is a clear win for the Colts; I downgrade future picks, so to me, the trade is a push. I think there's precedent in previous years that suggests they could have gotten an extra pick also, but I don't think that really changes the value of the trade by very much. Good post, btw. What do you see them doing with Tell?
  2. This is a prisoner of the moment kind of argument, IMO. Luck got drafted with Russell Wilson, a third rounder who won a SB in his second year. Luck has never been to the SB. The Colts can't beat the Pats, they got to the AFCCG pretty quickly but then fell off, etc. If you look at the typical benchmarks and don't actually analyze the players and their careers, it's not hard to see where this narrative comes from. It's dead wrong, but it's not hard to follow.
  3. He's started five more games than Mahomes.
  4. That's reasonable, and there have been tons of players with outstanding physical traits who couldn't put it together on the field. But Barton has rare size and movement ability, something you don't often find late in the draft, and if Mudd and Strausser know what they're doing, this is the kind of player that can really turn into something. Like, starting caliber LT, based on his traits. Then again, he might just be another H/W/S guy who never develops into an actual NFL player. I feel like Patterson's ceiling is probably decent spot starter / swing backup.
  5. Something else they have in common: I didn't understand the Leonard pick last year, and I'm not super excited about Banogu this year. Hopefully I'm wrong about him just like I was wrong about Leonard.
  6. A little late, but I wanted to get this on the record before camp starts. These are my thoughts on the Colts draft. Just a disclaimer, any disagreement with any picks is just me expressing my opinion, not suggesting that the Colts are wrong or that I know any better than they do. Trade: acquired 2/46 and a 2020 second rounder in exchange for 1/26, A- Ballard and Co. telegraphed this for weeks, and explained it well. It’s easy to see that they had similar grades on a bunch of guys who they expected to fall anywhere between 20-40, and were willing to move back if they could get value. Getting a future second and still coming away with one of their desired guys is value. I can nitpick and say that they could have gotten another pick in the deal, but when you analyze this on any of the charts and adjust the future second, it comes out as a push, which is acceptable, especially since they already had #34 from the Jets. 2/3 -- Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple, A- This is a solid pick anyway you slice it. Great prospect on paper, good athlete, nice size profile, fits the length requirements Ballard looks for (77” wingspan). But on film, he’s physical, quick, aggressive, high intensity, fiercely competitive, and shows up in run support. His technique needs refinement in man and zone, but he still effectively blankets receivers in all areas. The physical traits and abilities are there, and he looks quicker than his workout numbers suggest. What I really like is that this pick appears to signify a tangible shift in defensive philosophy toward a scheme that will employ more diverse coverage schemes. There were other players I liked more, but as the draft unfolded their plan mostly made up for it. 2/17 -- Ben Banogu, Edge, TCU, C Definitely a H/W/S prospect, his length and burst show up on film, what also shows up is a complete lack of refinement, virtually no technique as a pass rusher, and he’s not great in space. He should be able to handle edge responsibilities on early downs, from a two- or three-point stance. At first Ballard said he might be a Sam prospect (think Jamie Collins), but more recently, the coaches have suggested that he’ll be an end to start with. Apparently his college coaches did nothing to help him develop as a rusher -- which isn’t surprising, TCU doesn’t even use playbooks, I believe they didn’t teach technique -- so he still has a lot of upside, and being exposed to guys like Houston and hopefully Mathis will be great for him. I feel like there were better players available at multiple positions, and probably greater value to be gained even if Banogu was highly coveted. 2/59 -- Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State, A My favorite pick of the draft. I’ve been beating the drum for a YAC monster at receiver for a long time, and the Colts drafted one of the best YAC producers in this year’s draft. He’s quick and shifty, as a former RB he breaks weak tackles, a natural pass catcher (though he has some drops, they appear to be focus related, not a lack of ability), and he has elite deep speed. Not a lot of routes on tape, but his athletic profile, including his foot speed, balance and body positioning make for an understandable projection as a route running prospect. Major production in college, and he can return punts and kicks. On top of my excitement about the player, picking a receiver on Day 2 is a great value in this draft, and I like Campbell better than several receivers with higher profiles that went earlier than him. 3/26 -- Bobby Okereke, LB, Stanford, B+ Another athlete with speed and length, but not technically refined. Rangy and with decent awareness in the passing game, not incredible in man coverage but seems to have the physical ability to handle himself in certain situations. He’s not a downhill run defender, will more likely evade blockers than take them on, yet he plays with a physicality and likes to hit ball carriers, using his closing speed to arrive with bad intentions. He’ll be a great special teamer, and he’s an obvious fit for the defense, assuming he takes to coaching. Good value at this spot in the draft, and he’ll add immediate competition in the LB room. (Side note: Hopefully the Colts got it right with the character evaluation, given the recent news that he was accused of sexual assault a few years ago at Stanford.) 4/7 -- Khari Willis, DB, Michigan State, C+ Good tackler, breaks down well in space, sometimes comes in too hot and overruns the play, could be better at shedding blocks, not afraid to show up in run support and lay a hit; decent awareness in the middle of the field, plays the ball instinctively and aggressively, has tenacity and active hands when the ball is arriving, only a moderately effective cover man but doesn’t back down; decent range but somewhat limited on the back end, much better closer to the line of scrimmage; team captain, from a big family, known as a hard worker, ultra competitive. It’s easy to see him as a rotational DB early on, but I don’t think he has a very high ceiling. 5/6 -- Marvell Tell, DB, USC, C+ Long, athletic, decent ability to play the ball in man coverage, good range and agility to close in different coverages, not a great tackler, lacks the awareness and refinement to stay in position as a single high safety, stuck between positions but an obvious prospect at corner, which is where the Colts are moving him. He looks like he’s at least a decent dime prospect, maybe has the potential to be a starter as he learns the position and refines his technique. This pick will look great in a couple years if the staff can maximize his potential at corner. 5/26 -- EJ Speed, LB, Tarleton State, INC Who? It’s impossible to know whether another team would have taken him, requiring a fifth rounder on a small school unknown. But watching his highlight video, he lives up to his name -- he’s fast. He also has decent size and good length, so he’s another developmental guy with the traits the staff loves. I’m withholding a grade on this pick. 6/27 -- Gerri Green, Edge, Mississippi State, C- An unimpressive athlete with the size profile of a tweener edge, but he plays with a tenacity that allows him to contribute, he has good strength and power, when he’s balanced he can defeat blockers with his upper body, good awareness including in space; they talked about him having some ability to play Sam but he looks like a sub DE, at best. They were most likely drawn to his intangibles, as he was a captain on a defense with several standout players, but everyone seemed to look up to Green. Not super thrilled about his prospects in the NFL, but he can definitely be a special teams maven right away. 7/26 -- Jackson Barton, T, Utah, B+ In late rounds, I think a great strategy is to go after players with desirable physical traits who might need technical refinement. Barton has prototypical LT size and length (he’s basically a cutout of Castonzo), and he moves pretty well on film, has good lateral range and change of direction, and looks natural climbing to the second level. His technical issues are many: bends at the waist, his feet get crossed up at times, he lacks the initial anchor to handle NFL bull rushers, definitely lacks the re-anchor to handle a speed-to-power rush. And while he has long arms, he doesn’t know how to use them, his hands and fit are out of sync, and as a result he tends to catch rushers rather than block them. This also shows up when blocking in space, as he tends to crash into defenders rather than block them effectively. He’s raw and needs a lot of refinement to play on Sundays, but the physical tools are there. 7/32 -- Javon Patterson, C, Ole Miss, B- Looks like a solid prospect with upside as he gets stronger, he plays with reasonably good technique and he’s aggressive at the snap, good range and good feet, he can get better with his hands and his stance. He’s not going to challenge anyone for a starting spot, but he’s a guy to keep an eye on as a C/G combo, which is something of value on game day. He'll miss this year with an ACL, but he can still work on his upper body, and hopefully he doesn't lose his lateral ability when he comes back. What I think they did well: All told, I think the Colts added a lot of competition across the board. The DB room is now crowded, with multiple versatile players, they added some potential depth at OL, more speed at LB, a decent edge prospect, and an electrifying YAC receiver. I'm excited to see these guys in action soon. What I think they missed on: No true pass rush prospect. I'm underwhelmed by Banogu and I'm not sure that what they saw before the draft is what they saw after they got him in the building, but he is an intriguing physical prospect who hasn't received a lot of coaching yet. They passed on better prospects (for various reasons, some are easily understandable -- Sweat might not have passed their medical, Tillery had a medical red flag, Simmons had medical and character concerns, etc.), then took a project player in the second. Between Banogu, Tell, Speed and Green, the coaches are going to be asked to develop some very raw talent right away.
  7. He's a really talented young QB with flashy physical gifts, but he needs refinement in the technical areas. He can make enough plays now to win games, the question is whether he'll be able to master some of the finer details of QBing.
  8. Yes, but I don't disagree with them not sinking money into a high usage back with prior injuries who can't stay healthy and averages 4 yards/carry for his career. Full top, I wouldn't pay Gordon. Add in the fact that Bosa is coming up, Rivers is coming up (I assume they extend him at some point soon), Adrian Phillips, Hunter Henry... and they're up against the cap as it is. At the same time, I don't blame Gordon for threatening to hold out. They hit him with the option, probably have no intention of paying him, and are going to try to run him into the ground in his final year with them. Then maybe tag him in 2020 and have him at their mercy. I get why he's using the little bit of leverage he has.
  9. Snarky response is what difference does it make if Gordon sits out four games, or misses four games due to injury? Because he's only played 16 games once. Actual response, he's their best back by a long shot, but I don't think it's impossible to replace 80% of his production with another player. If he doesn't show up to camp and they don't feel great about their backs after a couple weeks, I would expect the Chargers to find a way to acquire a starting caliber back from somewhere.
  10. Good piece on the QBs. https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/07/08/nfl-draft-2020-quarterbacks-tua-tagovailoa-justin-herbert-jake-fromm
  11. I expect Mahomes and the Chiefs to have a slight regression, especially if Hill misses 4-6 games. I feel like the Chargers have the best roster in the league.
  12. I have the Chargers in the West. And while I think the Colts should be the best in the South, the Jaguars are serious.
  13. See, I think the Ravens are serious. Like, 13-3 potential. I'm not a huge Lamar Jackson fan, but assuming they put him in an offense that allows him to be efficient, they should be okay on offense. The defense should continue to be fast and physical and set the tone, and that's what wins in the AFC North. I understand not being sold on the Steelers, given the changes they're undergoing. But they have a WR pipeline and a vet QB, a good coach and GM, and a history of overcoming obstacles.
  14. How it usually goes is a bad team gets better, gets a wild card spot and maybe does something in the playoffs, then takes their lumps and tries to make moves to become a real contender. If you tell me the Browns can go 10-6 and maybe win a playoff game, I have no problem with that. But people are projecting them to go to the SB, which is crazy to me. And that's without even discussing all the things I mentioned earlier, which make me very bearish on the Browns this year. I think incremental improvement is a real thing in sports. Going from bad to title contender in one year is extremely rare.
  15. I don't find it hard to believe that the Browns will be better next year. But I am not buying them as serious contenders. Rookie head coach (not high on anyone's list as a HC candidate before last year, as far as I remember), added a couple of big names who aren't known for leading their teams to the playoffs, one is a prima donna, they added a really good RB who is suspended almost half the season (and was just linked to a bar fight over the weekend)... and their QB is an undersized loud mouth who has courted controversy almost nonstop. This team has major question marks. And it's not a team that has traditionally been a winner and has proven leadership at any critical position. They're a perennial cellar dweller that went 0-16 two years ago. It's not like we're expecting a bounce back year from the Packers or the Steelers, even though they have some questions to answer. This is the Browns, who haven't done anything right since they came back into the league. They have two winning seasons in the last 20 years; the last time they were above .500 was 11 years ago. Everyone's talking about them being improved last year, but they still only won 7 games. They played one of the easiest schedules last season, and still had a negative point differential. That's a recipe for regression, not drastic improvement. They also play in the most physical division in the league, competing against two teams that have set the tone for consistently physical plan. Vegas set the over/under at 9 wins for the 2019 Browns. I'm not a gambler, but I'd take the under in a heartbeat. I honestly think every team in the AFC South is better than the Browns. Before I can pick them to win their own division, let's see them actually beat the Steelers or the Ravens for a change. I wouldn't even pick them to make the playoffs at this point.
  16. Our LBs were constantly out of position in both phases. I thought that was as big a factor as anything.
  17. There are also rumors that the mother of his children is not mentally well. This situation could be very messy, top to bottom.
  18. Ray Rice didn't get another chance because he wasn't good anymore.
  19. AJ Brown is my favorite receiver in this draft. Isabella, Hollywood Brown, and Deebo have potential to be high volume producers quickly. N'Keal Harry has some Keenan Allen potential, although Allen was a better route runner coming out, but the body control is similar, IMO; Harry is probably better after the catch. I'll say AJ Brown. I reserve the right to change my mind three years from now.
  20. Bumping this out of curiosity. I wonder what everyone else thinks of their alternative drafts at this point of the year. I'd replace Collins with Eric Kendricks, and Dawson with Henry Anderson. Could probably do something different than Michael Bennett in that case, also. Holliman isn't even on a team right now, not even a practice squad. Langford has had a couple of breakout games; he was always going to be good. Spain is on the Titans roster, hasn't played very much.
  21. I'm hiding La'el Collins talk in this thread. Please start a thread on him, or dig up one of the old ones, if you want to talk about that decision. It's not the purpose of this thread.
  22. Out of respect to Jared's game, I'll ask that we save the La'el Collins discussion for another thread. And if you're going to play, don't pick La'el Collins, per Jared's rules.
  23. Yup, that's why players whining about not having fully guaranteed contracts is annoying to me. There's nothing prohibiting it for any player at any time. It's all a point of negotiation, and if a UDFA like La'el Collins can get a fully guaranteed contract, then there's obvious no rules against anyone else getting it.
  24. His contract could have been fully guaranteed as a late draft pick. That's a point of negotiation, same as a UDFA. Less leverage for the player when he's drafted, though, since one team has his rights, and there's no bidding war, but it's still a point of negotiation. The big difference between being drafted late and being a UDFA is that he can renegotiate his contract after just two years as a UDFA, instead of the minimum three years for a draft pick. You're right on with everything else.
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