Nevbot
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I just thought I would take this opportunity to brag a bit about the fact that I had the opportunity to chat with Peyton at the Masters last week for about 5 minutes. Truly a bucket list experience and I must say, he has the Southern Hospitality that one might expect but wow- did not expect to run into him and it was quite the experience. It just had to be the one place left on earth where cell phones are banned, so no picture opportunity unfortunately.
I told Peyton that my first Colts experience was riding to Buffalo in a blizzard when the Colts were 14-0 and they benched him only to lose that game. I said thanks for my first Colts experience being one where he was riding the pine. He laughed, apologized to me and said that if it was up to him he would have been checking down in that snow storm for 4 quarters. He thanked me for the support, and was asking me a bit about myself, where I am from, etc. Quite the gentleman! I think it was obligatory for him to be nice to patrons while he was wearing his Green Jacket, but none the less....a great experience meeting a childhood hero. Lynn Swann walked up to us while we were talking and shook Peyton's hand. I joked that now was the perfect time for a 10 yard slant- and then slid into the bushes like Homer Simpson with humility.
Unforgettable experience everyone!
Would love to hear some of your Peyton stories from over the years, since it is a bit of a slow time of year before the draft! Let it fly Colts fans
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10 hours ago, Scott Pennock said:
Prime example of a player "CHOOSING" to play somewhere else versus come to Naptown. He chose less money to play for Houston. This happens to both of our major franchises, the Pacers and the Colts.
This is not a GM issue, this is a culture issue. Indiana is a flyover state and thus most free agents will choose to fly over as well and sign with a franchise in a larger city, larger market.
You can say he did it because he likes the Texans chances with Stroud versus the Colts with AR5 - but, big time free agents have skipped the Colts even during the Manning and Luck era's too.
Perhaps someday some of you armchair GM's will realize this and stop whining so much about the FO............Polian, Grigson and Ballard alike.
This is spot on. Small market, and people want to think a St Elmo's steak, the combine and Manning's legacy is enough for people to want to just come to Indy to play. We don't have the night life, climate, roster or tax breaks to incentivize anyone to come here. So the only way to do it is money. We would automatically have to mark up every offer we want to make by 5-10% to have a chance at most of the top guys. And the unfortunate reality of first tier free agents is that their value already gets marked up 20% to that players actual worth, so Ballard is probably out before the real negotiations are even taking place. We can afford to do that move for like ONE marquee player when the roster is ready....but not now, not on a good player who hit free agency because their former team didn't find them important enough to keep them. We can never fall back on the fact that a we can lure a player here because of external factors.....because those will typically work against us. There was extensive discussion about this on page 48 of this thread.
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I am starting to wonder what Blackmon and Edwards are looking for. What do you all think they are worth?
I would think Blackmon might command 6-9 mil a year? Edwards approximately the same or a bit more since he was playing for SB champ? -
21 minutes ago, stitches said:
You keep not understanding @Superman 's and my worries about asset allocation. Roster construction is a zero sum game. When you put resources in one area this means that those resources cannot be put in another area. When you keep hammering the run defense .... investing and overinvesting and trippling down on it and paying 40M+ for your DTs and 7M for backup run stuffing nose tackle and 10+M for what is essentially run stuffing linebacker, this means that money now cannot be spent on things that are much bigger concerns for this team and coincidentally those are things that actually correlate with winning much more than run defense in the modern NFL.
I like Partridge's hire too... but his job is not player evaluation and roster management. His job is to coach the players he's given. That's why I find it so weird that you keep deferring to Partridge's opinion, when we don't even know what his opinion is. It can range from "meh... i'm ok with this guy, probably can work with it but don't sweat it if you can't get him" to "OMG, please, please, please find a way to bring him to me. He's amazing and the missing piece". What we know is that this is Ballard's job to decide whether to pursue him and what limits to set on an offer to him.
Well now it's done and whatever visions they have of him, his actual play will depend on Davis's talent, skill and Partridge's ability to get the best of him.
Again... don't want to answer for Superman, but this is because of apparent focus in Ballard's roster building philosophy. We complain that they bring nothing to the pass-rush, because it's the pass rush that needs one of the biggest improvements. not the run-stuffing. And by investing in them and not someone else who is more pass-rush proficient, we are again steering this team into a direction that is not conducive to what wins in today's league.
A coach can help extract the best out of a player and can help develop their skills. A coach cannot magically turn Grover Stewart into Justin Madubuike or Zaire Franklin into Frankie Luvu or Raekwon Davis into ... I don't know Dorance Armstrong or Za'Darius Smith.
Lets be clear here - we haven't really done much in first week of free agency. Well, we've kept our own... that's something Ballard has done in the past. The only two outside moves we have now are Raekwon Davis and Joe Flacco. Last year we signed Minshew on March 17, this year we signed Flacco on March 13... Last year we signed Matt Gay on March 13 and Samson Ebukam on March 14. There really isn't something out of the ordinary that Ballard is doing this year. All those were in the first week of FA last year too...
I kind of agree... people are starting to catchup to the fact that no matter the lip service he's done to changing the approach now that we have a cheap QB... Ballard really hasn't changed much of anything about his philosophy. He's doing the exact same things he always does, he focuses on the exact same thing he has always focused on and there is no sign whatsoever that he will be changing anything in his roster construction beliefs. And when the draft comes he will again do what he always does(and BTW this is where I actually am almost all the way there with him) - he will likely trade back for more picks, he will pick high level athletes, he will pick lenght at corner/lb/DL... My hope is that Steichen will manage to somehow convince him to spend big on another weapon....
At the end of the day, the more time passes and the more I see of Ballard the more convinced I get that he is not the guy to get us there. He's too entrenched in his philosophy(one that has not proven to be successful so far). He's not aggressive enough when opportunity and circumstances align and we actually have the chance to strengthen the team around our young QB, who needs all the help he can get. Which is a shame, because in a lot of ways I like Ballard(love his overall demeanor and presence, love his draft strategy for the most part, love that he runs a tight organization and we don't leak like most teams out there, etc.)... but ultimately the results are what he should be and eventually will be judged on. He's the type of GM who will run a solid operation, the team will never be in salary cap hell, the team will never be depleted of draft picks, but he also will never take the big chances to focus extended collection of resources into a window for contention. We will very likely continue to be what we've been with him so far... a middling team that some years miss the playoffs and some years make it only to be hammered by a team that actually has invested into their window for contention. The only real hope I have is that AR turns into somewhat of a monster(top 5 QB in the league) and is enough to keep us in contention on his own(well, with Steichen's help of course)...
Those are my current feelings on Ballard's prospects as our GM going forward... I hope I'm wrong.
But isn't this the formula for any winning team? Unless you have Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, etc....you aren't going to consistently win, make the playoffs or hoist a Lombardi. We are working through the growing pains of finding our guy. Ballard kicked the can for as long as he could because he very well knows that as GM in the NFL if you swing on a QB in the first round and miss- you can kiss your job goodbye.
I think a lot of people are discounting what the Indianapolis Colts inherently are as a franchise- something that we can't change and it's an inevitable reality- we are a small market franchise who is subject to the exact same salary cap rules and competitive landscape as the other 31 teams. It might be unfair, but it is the reality that we have to face. Things to consider:-We don't have a Peyton Manning or Luck anymore. The QB isn't drawing high value free agents to Indianapolis over more attractive offers.
-Although Steichen seems great, he is not established enough to attract free agents to come play for him yet over more attractive offers.
-We are coming off an abomination of a season in which our owner seemed to be pulling the puppet strings and micro- managing. It will take a few seasons of functional growth to attract players back into trust our front office and ownership.
-Players can sign the same deal that we offer but choose to play in tax exempt states like Florida. Nice weather, more active night life, based on the recent rankings likely also better atmospheres for their families, weight rooms, facilities in general. Lucas Oil might be a nice stadium, but from all other accounts we are very average (and probably below) in what really attracts an NFL player to come play for you.
-Most importantly- players and agents know that (for the above aforementioned reasons) Ballard is never going to blow the top off in contract negotiations, and if they balloon above his target, he pulls out. Ballard himself knows that he isn't exactly playing in a level playing field and therefore his philosophy needs to be defined and disciplined- and I agree with it. To have NFL top talent on the Colts- we need to draft those guys ourselves so that we can control the rights to retain them. It's our only chance, and at least Ballard is well above average at drafting.
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4 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:
I may be looking at this wrong, but I always would like a QB3 with a growth path
Someone like Milton has all the tools to be successful, but if gets a little better in the next 2-3 years, he may
(Heaven forbid) if AR fails (Possible) he could be the guy.
Or......
He will get some time on the field the next two years, and people notice, and we get 3rd round draft offers (or better) for him.
Either way, in a QB starved league, having a developed talent can serve the team in many ways
If after 2 years, the team is still not thinking that Sam is ready to be even a back up...... maybe time to move on
I completely agree with you about investing a pick in a QB3, however I don't think our roster has the luxury of taking one in the first 3 rounds-especially now with the Flacco signing. I also think Milton showed enough at the combine where there is no chance he lasts 3 rounds. A team like Seattle probably wouldn't hesitate to bring him in as their #2 and let him sit behind Geno for the remainder of his deal.
Sam is a weird one. He was always going to be a 3-4 year development project and that is exactly what he has been. He has only played real NFL snaps during our teams most deplorable moments in the last 10 years...and I don't really think this is a fair shake at what he might be able to do with a capable and confident o-line, RB, and especially play caller. His profile fits our offensive scheme well as a QB that can move and processes quickly, and from all reports that I have read over the years he has worked diligently in improving his mechanics and arm strength. To add to this, in every chance to show his stuff in pre-season action, he has played fantastic. At the very least, he is your perfect QB3 who knows the system, will work hard to make other players progress and is as cheap as they come. I think his chances of winning games if (God Forbid) he was thrust into action would be far better than if Milton was our QB this year. Just my opinion.
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I think so, a good deal. He has been top of the league in tackles for a few seasons now, so production will never be an issue for him. Seems durable, knock on wood.
Franklin is also very active in the community and is a positive role model for kids and all that. It goes a long way to giving management the confidence in locking up those players nice and early, and in this case at an affordable rate. Zaire is probably worth more per year and still probably has some upside of improving.
Getting rid of a next year problem now is never a bad thing.
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I think Indianapolis, a small market by nature, has always and will usually have trouble attracting the best talent in free agency. Having Manning or Luck would substantially help towards attracting the best, but right now we have a developing rookie with the keys to the Cadillac. So there's that.
The main issue lies in the teams we are going up against when bidding for these players. If Miami, Tampa, Jags want to offer the same deal to our FA targets- why wouldn't the player choose the other teams over Indy? They all outperformed us last year, the climate is perfect and oh ya....that state TAX thing that FLA players are exempt from.
So that leaves Indy in a position of having to overpay for anyone they want to bring in. Ballard knows this and everyone else does too.
SO my point is, I do believe Ballard may make a dip in FA this year, but most certainly not at a marquee position unless he wants to pay for the likes of aging talent like Khalil Mack, etc. Maybe this is where he dips.
I think he will overspend a bit on a position like linebacker or safety or DT. Expect moves at these three positions specifically, because it will free up Ballard to focus primarily on O for the first few picks of the draft. Its the more frugal and sound approach.
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8 hours ago, ArmchairQB said:
I recall he was a high RAS guy that didn’t pop on tape and lacked a second or third move and would need coaching up. Could be another reason Ollie was let go. Paye has certainly underwhelmed. At this point I’m with the don’t pick up his option crowd. Lewis was a 2nd rounder in 2018 that has never managed to earn a starting job even though he pops on tape. Wonder why?
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/kwity-paye/32005041-5916-8986-d9fb-d5cb1d17eb42
You actually wonder why Lewis hasn't been more impactful? It is simply because he hasn't managed to compile back to back full seasons. He has had some back luck with season enders.
Overall though he has always produced in a limited role and that is why he has always been brought back. Perhaps we should give him a bit more of a role since he has pretty much earned it. -
On 1/15/2024 at 7:21 PM, Colt.45 said:
the original 12...Sorgi
If not Minshew, Brissett? Or some youngun' from the draft
I would love to see Jacoby come back here to be our backup on a reasonable deal. He and Minshew should come at about the same price tag (Jacoby may be a tad cheaper due to age?)
The Mariota call is decent too and he played in the Eagles system this year. He would transition into our O and be even cheaper than the aforementioned.
It all really comes down to what Minshew is asking for. If its reasonable and on par with his value as a BACKUP, I think we bring him back. Personally- I don't see any team bringing him in to be their starter. They would bring him in to compete with a Mac Jones level QB. If Minshew can land in that type of situation he is likely to make a few million more than if he stayed in Indy- but he kind of made it clear that money isn't everything for him, he seemed to enjoy his time here and mentoring AR so who knows? Maybe he takes a team friendly to stick around. Gardner has had years to prove he's a starter, so nobody is giving him 20 million a year. His ceiling for pay is closer to 10- But do WE want to pay that? It slightly takes the benefit out of having a rookie on a cheaper deal. I like the Sam E approach as backup- He's still cheap, he knows the system, he can run a bit, and if AR goes down again at least we probably lose bad enough to pick high.
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1 hour ago, Smonroe said:
No problem. Here it is:The QB is the most important position. Your franchise success is dependent on him. (For the sake of brevity I won’t go into reasons. We all know it starts with the QB).
The Colts have a rookie QB that finished two games. He is still an unknown, both health wise and performance. If the Colts can get a QB at 15 that they rate higher this season than AR was last year, the chances of franchise success doubles.
They compete for the starting job. Loser is a cheap(er) backup.
Again, I’m not advocating it, I’m saying a case can be made for it. You can disagree, but then you’re saying we should put all the eggs in one basket.
This is kind of where I am at. There is nothing that occured this season that gives me the confidence that Richardson is durable. I have hope that he can be good IF HE STAYS HEALTHY, but that is completely up in the air right now. He could go on to not miss another game for 15 years, but if I am a betting man- he will miss a few games a year, and we will need a good young back up.
Ideally, I would like that backup to have a similar skillset to Richardson so we can develop the same O that becomes sort of interchangeable with either guy- like what the Ravens have with Lamar and Hundley.
Having said that, I don't think we can spend that pick on a QB in the first round. There is no way. We have too many bigger holes to fill, and the promise of AR and his draft slot alone provides that we need to spend our first round capital elsewhere this year.
If this were the same conversation next year (AR was injured AGAIN for most of the year), then you absolutely use a first on QB- and I would assume that it's a new GM making that pick. For now though, our wagon is hitched to AR.
I am okay with a QB in the third round that is athletic. I still think Sam E is likely a better option to run our system if AR goes down, but I digress. There is a reason he is still rostered.
I think Ballard definitely goes WR or literally BPA at 15 this year (or even a slight trade back is likely). If someone like Nabers falls to 12-13, maybe a trade up? Bowers at 15 seems right too. I like these players here. I don't think we take a CB that high because we value zone corners in our scheme which can be had in droves in the 2nd and 3rd round.
Should be a very interesting draft, especially after seeing what happens in FA this year. This is the first year that I truly feel we will dip on a player or two. But it will likely be a safety and a linebacker. Cheapest spots to pay top dollar for, which aligns with Ballards MO.
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I think what people are quick to discount and often here is cause and causation. The chicken or the egg argument.
Personally, I think its way more team oriented than any of us give it credit for. The teams that go the furthest every year are just that. The best TEAMS. I think we are too quick to say that one teams success solely lies on the shoulders of (usually) one person, and that is so far from the truth with any Super Bowl winning team.
It might just so happen that personality types (and how well they gel together) is the secret sauce here. So often, trying to fit square pegs into round holes with Coach/Quarterback personality types is the key factor to weather a team has success or in the case of the Patriots for many years- sustained success. I wouldn't say that Brady and Bill were necessarily the same personality types but they certainly allowed their biggest strengths to meet in the middle. They expected discipline and hard work and dedication from their teammates and led by example in accomplishing it.
I think you are seeing more of a shift in how coaches are running their teams to become much more liberal in treatment of their guys and also their discipline philosophies. McDaniels, Sirianni and to a lesser degree perhaps McVey and Shannahan are all examples of this. I think Shane is a bit of straight edge and conservative, but I digress- The teams that go the furthest have a synced up identity and philosophy. I think with Shane and Richardson, we can absolutely accomplish this. Starts with Ballard though- making sure he is matching up these personality types for best chance of success.
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20 hours ago, Solid84 said:
Sure when you take out the first 47....
The point is there's been no changes that suggests this is something we can count on going forward. It's an anomaly.
Maybe, but the 60 sacks from this year is the most recent example from what will look the closest to our starting D on week 1 of next year.
It could be an anomaly, but it could also be the start of a trend. I saw improvement from Dayo, solid play from Paye. We definitely need to add another rusher to the mix, but I think the corners and linebackers in coverage is the main issue.
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On 12/25/2023 at 2:20 PM, MikeCurtis said:
I think the team is sold on AR5 as QB1. We could save some money and not resign Minchew but he is a great back up
Linebacker IS a need but I view it behind Stud DE Playmaker FS and CB
This year has been good and bad for a variety of reasons. Minshew being able to compete coming off the bench is great for the fans, team, coaches and player development, but hurts our overall draft pick this April (okay big deal, I would take the first benefits over the last negative). We have been able to make the most out of a bad (AR going down) situation.
The biggest impact cannot really be quantified, and its a big negative- not having AR on the field all year taking valuable reps. Weather AR played well this year never really mattered. The fact that he got valuable reps and we saw some growth and improvement and chemistry with his guys- this was always the most important thing for this whole season....and it was robbed from us.
What makes it even more painful is that AR played a LOT better than a lot of us assumed he would right out of the gate. What could this kid's ceiling actually be? In his limited action he looked great and very explosive and pretty raw. He clearly needed those reps and it was going to be a thrill to watch him utilize them.
But the caveat is the thing that scares me the most...Even when he was not shut down for the season, Anthony missed a significant amount of time for various different ailments. It wasn't just one freak injury....it was like 3 or 4 of them. I am more scared that the guy just simply isn't durable, and what makes him the biggest threat on the field and the reason we took him at 4 is also the same reason he is on bench in a sling. If he doesn't become some form of Jalen Hurts style of passer(less risky running, half read options, more disciplined QB play and throwing into accurate windows), I am legitimately concerned he will have a short career.
Point being- We lost the most valuable thing here in development time for our QB. We had the advantage of him being 21 (22 for his developmental year). Now his age is more irrelevant since next year will now be that developmental year. Same goes for enjoying five full years of having a QB on a rookie deal....now we will also probably have to roster a semi-expensive backup to insure ourselves that we can repeat a worst case scenario like this year.
While this season has been fun, and good for fans- I might say that it was a big of a NET LOSS for our Colts. Will definitely revisit this logic in late January and hope we mop the floor with the Texicans this Saturday night!
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1 hour ago, lollygagger8 said:
I want Paye to be good and he isn't
Dayo is meh
Not a slight on Ballard, but it sucks our best DE is a player he didn't draft. I just hope he opens up the checkbook this off season!
Raimann has been a Godsend. That dude is legit.
TE's: they are going to need to draft a good one.
Granson really isn't good.
Mallory is semi-exciting.
Ogletree was ok, but might be gone considering what happens with the battery charges.
Mo Cox is being used as a blocker 90% of the time
Need Woods back!
Going to have to draft a LB or 2 as well
I wouldn't say Pate isn't good...he is a much more balanced defender. I think all of us expected and hoped he would become a great speed rusher, but he was never that guy and in hindsight I think it was wishful thinking. He has a high motor and plays both the pass and run with competence. Having said that, I don't think he was worth the pick where we took him. He has played like more of a second rounder/low first rounder.
Dayo has either met or exceeded expectations at this point- but I also think he has played about right where you would expect a second rounder (especially coming off an Achilles) to play. His sack numbers keep trending up and I am excited to see how he continues to develop.
I would agree that Grandson can go. You can find an undersized receiving tight end literally anywhere. He is just a guy, always was, and was probably only drafted because Frank Reich was pounding the table for him.
You're right- Mallory has looked good on a small sample size. I would just let Ogletree walk at this point, and Mo-Allie is a very expensive backup who I don't see us keeping.
Also- Jelani Woods is apparently made of the only most fragile type of glass, since a hamstring has now kept him out the entire year after a very promising rookie campaign. I would hold onto him simply for his measurables. but I would be pretty worried here too. Expect an upgrade at the TE position as a whole.
Definitely need a few more LB's with specific skillsets or a stud that can do it all. High pick anyone?
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If I am being honest, I wish I could see Sam E run this O with Steichen calling the plays and Sam running around on some half field read options plays.
We could go after a mobile young signal caller, but I figure that it would take him at least a year or two in our system to provide quality backup value, unless he is a vet that has played in Shane's system elsewhere ala Minshew- and those guys are limited.
So we come back to Sam. He will be two years in Shane's system next year, almost past his rookie deal with some starting experience. He is plenty mobile, and you can't tell me that his arm is much less than Minshew's.
My point being- I don't see a scenario where Sam doesn't probably compete for the backup spot next year. Having said that, he are spending pennies on the position and given AR's rookie campaign, we probably need a much better insurance policy than Sam in case of the worst. Ballard surely doesn't want to travel down that road again.Sam intrigues me in this system but unfortunately I doubt we will ever get the chance to actually see it happen- and if we do- we are probably screwed to some extreme anyway.
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On 9/10/2023 at 7:30 PM, Dark Superman said:
He looked solid in his first-ever game against a very good Jaguars team. It's hard to win without a running attack and no elite players at the WR or TE spots. Chris Ballard needs to get aggressive and do whatever it takes to get talent around AR5. You literally have your QB and LT on their rookie deals. No excuses!
This is very true, good post. All of our skill position players are still on their rookie deals, most importantly QB. We SHOULD be able to overspend on a stud like the Dolphins are doing with Tyreek, but we cant because we are saddled with a few questionable contracts with players that are underperforming their payday.
I honestly don't see a scenario where Leonard is a Colt next season at his current rate of production. I get it, he is coming back from a lot of injuries over an extended period....but if he doesn't become even 80% of his former self on the field and quick- I expect him gone, as we can afford to cut ties with him after this year.
You can't all tell me that we could probably plug in Stuard instead of Leonard and our D would be better? Probably, but we still have to let Leonard find his sea legs. The upside is immense if he can get back into form.
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12 hours ago, Matabix said:
I think we are all looking at this like JT is expecting 16 million. That was HIS starting point, and he would very likely play for 10-13 million a year so long as there is a multi year contract attached to it- something the Colts have not done, and have publicly said they will not do.
If a team offered the Colts a second rounder and JT 4 years at 11 million I think we can make a deal. I just wonder which team will do it.
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On 7/15/2023 at 9:23 PM, LJpalmbeacher2 said:
Here's mine:
1. Johnny Unitas
2. Bert Jones
3. Peyton Manning
the rest are more difficult especially the order which is less important.
4. Geno Marchetti
5. OT Parker
6. Raymond Berry
7. Lenny Moore
8. Mike Curtis
9. Marvin Harrison
10. Dwight Freeney
I personally think it is criminal to have Bert Jones and even perhaps Unitas ahead of Peyton. I also think Marvin is ahead of all of these guys except Unitas
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the players union should try to push for scrapping the rookie pay scale for the running back position so that young RBs can cash in on NFL first contract money right away, since many aren't even seeing that second contract anyway,
Finding a way to do it gets a lot trickier, but the logic makes sense.
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Adam Vinatieri anyone?
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12 minutes ago, stitches said:
Another article from Zach Hicks on what we are likely to see from our offense built around Richardson:
https://www.si.com/nfl/colts/news/empty-theory-splitting-field-anthony-richardson
Good stuff! I really hope we are getting AR mentally up to speed with every waking hour of the day.
I also hope we have throwing mechanic specialists like House or Simms working with him on footwork, launch angles and touch.
AR is so moldable at this point, I hope we get the best in the business working with him early and often on top of our coach staff. When the break occurs before training camp, I love that Minshew will likely be working with AR in Florida and I hope the aforementioned specials are working with him a ton too.
You never know how quickly AR may come on. The first time in his life where all he has to focus on in football. No school, everything is now in behind him. And he seems like the type of kid that breathes ball and wants to give his life to it.
Only time will tell! The ride should be fun!
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16 hours ago, Superman said:
First thing for me is that I don't have a problem with them running from the QB position. But I think that style of play will take its toll over time. In fact, Lamar has been hurt in each of the last two seasons, and Hurts got hurt last year. The idea that those guys -- or anyone -- can continue to play that style at QB and not be punished seems crazy to me. And I think everyone involved knows it.
I see the money commitment, but I assume that both teams expect those QBs to evolve as time goes on. And both of them are much better in traditional QB areas than they were at the beginning of their careers. I think they both still have some work to do, but the contracts are a bet by the teams that they'll continue to improve in their ability from the pocket. I don't see the contracts as an indication that they intend to keep using them in the same way. Josh Allen's comments support that idea.
I don't necessarily agree that accuracy is valued less. I think teams see the athleticism as a mitigating factor, while the QB develops. With new offensive approaches, you can function as an offense even if your QB isn't ready to work from the pocket. And it's better for his development because he's getting live reps, and in theory, his mobility can help protect him at times. But I don't think that's meant to be the final form, not for the offense, nor for the QB himself.
That's why I think a guy who is as raw as Richardson, who probably doesn't even get drafted as a QB ten years ago, could go at #4. That's why the Bears are willing to play Fields, even though they can't put together a functional passing game. (And BTW, I think the Bears have been doing it wrong; they need to get the passing game going, because Fields is basically a glorified RB at this point. If the passing game doesn't click in this season, he could be out by 2024.) The ability to get a developing QB on the field sooner while still competing as a team is now fully demonstrated, so more teams will commit to that strategy, even using high picks along the way.
And while the Eagles are okay with 24 year old Jalen Hurts running the ball 160 times, that doesn't mean they intend to have 27-28 year old Jalen Hurts running the ball that much. Teams might be willing to turn over the QB position more frequently than in the past, but historically, most QBs don't last as full time starters for a decade anyway. Only the really good ones. But I don't think you even get 6-8 years from a 'featured runner' QB before they get run down, if not seriously injured. If you transition that guy into a more traditional passer, who is still athletic enough to selectively hurt the defense as a runner, you can get a lot more out of him. So 2-3 years from now, Hurts might still be able to have a huge playoff game as a runner, but probably won't be used as a 'featured runner' all season.
Ultimately, I think you still have to be able to win from the pocket. Whatever their limitations, Hurts and Jackson are still capable from the pocket, and a lot more accurate than Richardson is at this point. I think it would be a mistake to look at them and think the lesson is that pocket passing and accuracy aren't important anymore.
Nice post. I would say that making these athletically gifted QB's a solid pocket passer and NFL processor is priority number one. Their legs simply provide the baseline for a functional offense, confidence building for the young QB by building around RPOs early and cutting his reads to one-read or a half field read. You can't teach a pocket passer to become weapon as a runner, but you can teach a running QB how to pocket pass if the intangibles are there and for AR, they seem to be.
Ease him along until he is having success with the vanilla version of what we want to be and when he starts excelling within his limited packages, start expanding. It will take two years for his passing to be refined enough to take our foot off the gas in regards to using AR as a runner. We simply will need to, and he will probably prefer that early too. Just let him ball and react early as opposed to think/overthink.
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44 minutes ago, stitches said:
S2 is not that type of test. From what I gather it's more about visual perception and reaction times. You have to follow dots or shapes on a monitor, process that information and react a certain way, stuff like that.
One thing that I presume the S2 test does not account for is integration into a plan. It measures only visual perception and reaction times.
So if this is inherently an issue with CJ Stroud (which it seems to be based on the test), the proper system and coaching and volume of reps in the system should do a number of things to overcome this poor S2 score:
Alleviate the need to make a high volume of second reaction plays, but hammer his safety outlets so that it is in his muscle memory. Build a strong system around CJ's strength that involve pure pocket passing.
Surround him with the supporting cast to succeed. He has shown at OS that he can succeed with flying colors when the situation is right.
So if he is slow to react and see certain things on the field based on the test- how much can an elite arm talent make up for a lot of those shortcomings? Sure he may read things late, but he certainly has the arm talent to make up for it, You even see it in the Georgia tape...but he still makes the plays.
If Stroud falls to us I think he is the pick, but I am not expecting it to fall that way
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FWIW, I think Richardson's weaknesses seem equally as coachable as Levis. The biggest knock on Richardson seems to be his lack of experience, lack of tape, and the underwhelming passing accumulation when he WAS on tape. But there were flashes of brilliance on his tape too.
It will really come down to the flavor that our FO and SS decide on. Personally, I think Levis has a lower ceiling than AR, who might have a higher ceiling than any of them if we are looking 7 years into the future, but lots would have to go right:
AR lands in the best environment, with the right coach and mentorship.
We have Steichen (developed Herbert and Hurts), and Minshew (who AR knows from Florda workouts and knows the scheme and his role as a mentor/bridge)
We have a roster that isn't garbage and can support him, which is important.
Finally, and this has yet to be seen- will we red shirt him for the year as a starter or give him some valuable experience? I would hope he gets in a few starts at the end of the year at least to see what we have. Best case scenario he picks up the playbook and NFL speed quickly and starts out the gate as a rookie. THAT would be big for us and unexpected.
Levis to me is a Tanehill- or at best Goff- type of prospect. His personality really rubbed me the wrong way in many instances (albeit there is other media of Levis where he is perfectly acceptable like at the Manning Passing Academy and some longer interviews where he is speaking about non football related things). It seems like once the Combine started, Levis tried to put on this clown show of cockiness that never really translated well at all. Add to that, his throwing session wasn't really any better than AR or CJ.
It's also possible that even if CJ falls to us (he probably wont and we would have to trade to 3 to get him if he's there), he ends up being more of a Jacoby. Perfectly acceptable NFL arm talent, but lacks the processing ability to really make adjustments pre snap and on the fly. There is a place for the conservative QB in the NFL- but it's as a backup. You need the high upside players to make the big plays and take the shots when it matters most. Will Stroud be able to do that when he is under duress constantly and not throwing to the best athletes on the field? I would rather have the best athlete on the field.
The trump factor for me is age and moldability, and AR has both in spades. He has barely been coached, only started 13 games. He will be 25 if we extend his 5th year option! Give him an entourage of quality NFL coaching, build a scheme around his unique skillset and see what you have. I think with the other 3, we pretty much know what we have and the ceiling is a 10 story and not a high-rise. In order to actually lift a Lombardi and get past Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Allen and the rest- we need to aim big here. The comparisons to Cam Newton I can see- but AR is younger coming out, might have a stronger arm and is faster. Cam might have been a more refined passer coming out of college, but never quite developed that aspect of his game to the point where he is already basically toast. Hoping AR has that dawg of a work ethic if we take him.
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What is Chris Ballard MOST LIKELY to do in the 1st Round of the 2024 NFL Draft?
in Colts Football
Posted
While I agree that having Marv Jr would have such an impact, I none the less contend that we could potentially get an equally impactful player without having to give up the boatload. I think Bowers could be just as (if not more) impactful to our team right away than Marv Jr. would. Probably Nabers too.
A lot of smoke starting around the Texas DT as a surprise pick for us at 15, as he is a top 10 talent that is projected around 15. I wouldn't hate it so long as the aforementioned are already off the board.