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CurBeatElite

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Posts posted by CurBeatElite

  1. On 10/28/2020 at 1:42 PM, EastStreet said:

    I'd like to see the WR rotation firm up a bit once Pittman gets back. TY/Pittman/Pascal/Johnson might end up being a nice rotation. Burton seems to be eating up slot type snaps, so there's that too. As far as being a threat in the passing game, I think a lot of the issue has simply been game plan / play calling. Not really sure why we chose to throw it a bunch in the first game with zero preseason vs a team who is horrible vs the run. I do understand why we tossed it a lot vs the Bengals after getting down. The rest of the games were just heavy run / conservative game plans though.

     

    I'd just like to see some balance.

     

    Personally, I think Mack going down early in week 1 changed the game plan.   Also, aside from the 2 bad interceptions, Rivers was very efficient passing vs. Jax.  Before he got hurt (I think it was the 4th offensive drive - TD drive 1, Hines got stopped on 4th and 1 at Jax 3 drive 2, Rivers threw pick drive 3) Mack was very effective as a runner and receiver out of the backfield.  The missed FG, getting stuffed on 4th and 1 deep in Jax territory on our 2nd drive and costly interceptions certainly didn't help, as it allowed Jax to stay in the game and then take a lead.  Had we gotten that 4th and 1 we could have easily been looking at 14-0 after our 2nd drive (or if we kicked the FG, 10-0).  The 3rd drive, Rivers threw a pick which gave Jax a 27 yard field to work with and they scored to tie it 7-7 -- all the sudden, we're looking at a tied ball game instead of a 14-0 game.  I'm  not sure how much trust the coaching staff had in Taylor week 1 into his rookie season without having a preseason, but my guess is that if we got up 14-0 or 21-0 we would've ran a lot more (if Mack didn't get hurt, I also think we would've stayed with the run a bit more).  We were pretty balanced the first two drives.  Also, it was week 1 -- now everyone knows the Jags don't really have a good run D, but that wasn't such an easy assessment with no tape from this year available on them that first week.

     

    I'm with you though, other than the NYJ game, we haven't really been balanced on O.  It'd be nice to get more of a balance during the final stretch.

     

     

    • Like 1
  2. On 10/26/2020 at 9:05 AM, Nickster said:

    Pro reference has a cool list of HOF predictions.  He rates just under average for HOFers. The only current HOF guy I’d rate him above is NA math.  There are a few players like Big Ben that rate above him on that list.

     

    i personally think the lack of a championship appearance makes him marginal but I think he will and should get in.
     

    he is essentially a dead heat on this page with Ryan.  Do you rate Ryan as N HOF?  I personally put him in the hall of very good and see him and Rivers at like the cutoff line. I would rate Ryan over Rivers if ATl wouldn’t have blown it against ne.

     

    Ben is 4 below him on that list... 

     

    Look at the AFC since 2004 -- Brady, Peyton and Pittsburgh have been dominant since Rivers entered the league (Flacco and Mahommes each had 1 SB appearance since Rivers entered the league, otherwise it has been/was dominated by Brady and his HOF coach Belichick, Peyton and his HOF coach Dungy, and Ben and his future HOF coach Tomlin).  Yea, Rivers lack of championships may hurt him in some eyes, but we'll probably never see another era of dominance in the NFL like Brady-Belichick put together in NE.

     

    IF is a big word -- I'd put myself in the HOF, too, IF I was 6'5" 240 pounds had a cannon arm and won 6 superbowls... Ryan will need to play at least 4 more seasons at a high level to touch Rivers' statistical numbers.  Ryan was Rookie of Year in 2008 (Rivers was basically ineligible for ROY since he sat behind Brees).  Ryan was MVP in 2016 and had a very amazing year (led the league in passer rating -- which Rivers did in 2008 and also led the league in TDs but somehow wasn't even elected to probowl).  Other than that, his SB appearance, and his cool nickname "Matty Ice" Ryan has a ways to go to be at Rivers' level.

     

    19 hours ago, Thebrashandthebold said:

    Kelly went to four straight Super Bowls. Aikman won a Super Bowl. That would put them both way ahead of Rivers and they were.

     

     

    No, Aikman is nowhere near ahead of Rivers (other than his SB ring).  Kelly, at least, was among the best QBs in the league when he played, just like Rivers.  Aikman was on an amazing team and he helped guide them to the SB.  Kelly was on an amazing team and helped guide them.  Kelly was a better QB than Aikman, by far.  Rivers has never been on a team nearly as stacked as either of those guys.  

  3. On 10/23/2020 at 4:49 PM, bestQBever said:

    Finally someone who sees it for how it is. I really like JT but his vision imo is a glaring issue and is what is preventing him from being an elite RB already. We saw guys like zeke and saquon pop off year 1 and I believe that physically, JT is better than both of those guys. I think right now he is thinking about what to do at every level of the play instead of saying "oh, if the play unfolds like this, this lane will be open and then I can beat this guy at this angle." I think while Marlon didn't have the size, his vision is pretty much what catapulted him into a top 10 RB status.

     

    Not quite sure JT is more physically gifted than Saquon (not sure any RB in the NFL is, TBH -- maybe Derrick Henry due to how massive he is?).  Their 40 yard dash, 20 yard split, 10 yard split, 20 yard shuttle are just about identical (JT ran a 4.39, SB ran a 4.40).  Saquon had a 5 inch higher vertical leap and 12 more reps at 225 lbs on bench and is also 8 pounds heavier and 2 inches taller.

     

    Also, not sure Mack is a top 10 RB.  I like Mack, he had a good year last year... but behind one of the top OLs in the NFL, he ranked 24th in average yards per carry last year out of those who had >100 carries.  He has developed good vision over time and he is a pretty solid receiving back (which Taylor is proving to be as well).  Mack has never been 'dominant' and he certainly wasn't any more than 'average' as a rookie.  Taylor's performing better than Mack did as a rookie and his vision and decisiveness seem to be improving every week.  If he stays healthy, he'll be just fine.

     

    On 10/23/2020 at 7:37 PM, Painterman said:

    Anyone think we may be sandbagging? Long season, schedule gets harder, shouldn't show too much too soon. 

     

    I have thought that at points... but due to the amount of injuries we have had to key players (Pittman, Campbell, Mack, all of our top 3 TEs at time, etc.) I think Reich/Sirianni have been forced to pull back some on O play calling.  I also think TY is not the same TY he has been in the past, whether he's lost a step or is just not syncing up with Rivers or a combination of the two, he doesn't seem to be his old self.  It seems like Marcus Johnson is now our primary deep threat (think about that if you're an offensive play caller - a guy who got cut and resigned to the practice squad is the #1deep threat when going into the season we thought Campbell, Pittman and TY would be 3 very solid deep threats).  If the guys we have stay healthy and if Pittman (and potentially Campbell) come back 100% healthy, I could see them opening up the playbook a bit more, but I think we've been pretty limited in the WR (and at times TE) part of our offense.

     

    On 10/25/2020 at 4:19 AM, crazycolt1 said:

    There is a lot of truth to this comment if you think about it. 

    It is never easy for a fanbase to get over the loss of a QB some consider one of the best to ever play the game.

    Then Manning was replaced by Luck. When Luck was healthy he was a beast. A linebacker mentality playing QB. 

    What made him fun to watch is what lead him to an early exit. 

    With Manning and then Luck this team was carried by the play of the QB position. 

     

    I think Ballard has been working on a team that is not dependent on a pro bowl caliber QB to win games. 

    A lot of Colt fans don't get excited when we don't have a super hero that puts us in awe. 

     

     

     

    Ballard has been saying that since day 1.

     

    On 10/25/2020 at 6:57 AM, Nickster said:

    Problem is that non pro bowl caliber teams almost never advance in the playoffs. 

     

    I dont think that's the plan for Ballard I think it's more the reality with luck's sudden retirement.  This team is actually built around elite qbing imo.  Had Ballard known before, he would have been wise to try to get an elite qb because elite QBs win championships.  I'm glad we have Buckner big time but if we dont find a qb solution we are going to be one of those teams just talented enough to get a middle 1st round pick and will need to get lucky at qb drafting.  Eason. Could be the answer.  Who knows?  QB drafting is like drafting hitters in mlb.  There is rarely a hitter or qb drafted that is surely going to be good.

     

    I hope I am wrong but I think the team is in for a tough couple months after the lions.

     

    I don't think Rivers is really too far off from being pro-bowl caliber.  He's 6th in completion percentage and 9th in average yards per pass.  He has thrown a couple of baffling INTs, but otherwise he's playing good ball and he's playing with a new group who he had no preseason games with, a limited camp with, and is down his #2 and #3 WR, #1 RB, and has seen all of his top 3 guys miss at least one game.  It'd be nice if his TD numbers were a bit higher, but with the loss of Pittman, we don't really have a truly dangerous RZ WR.  

     

    I think we'll be just fine to be hunting for the playoffs and AFC South title after this next stretch.  Pitt beating TEN was big for us last week.  TEN is going into Cincy who has lost 4 of 5 games by 1 score or less and who has tied once.  They're not really a pushover (I expect TEN to win, but won't be shocked if Burrows and Cincy give them a heck of a fight).  Then they have CHI who is 5-2 and who beat TB after we basically dominated them.  They've got to play IND twice, CLE, GB, and Baltimore after CHI (they also have Jax, HOU, and DET) -- they don't have a walk in the park down the second half of the season.   

     

    We should be able to beat DET, LV, sweep HOU and beat Jax at home... that's 5 wins (9-7)... but I think we can at least split with TEN (now we're 10-6), and win at least 1 of 3 out of Baltimore, GB, Pitt (that'd be 11-5).  We should get a WR target back very soon (Pittman), potentially get an additional pass rusher (Turay) at some point down the stretch and potentially get Campbell back late in the  season.  So long as the guys we have now stay healthy, we should continue to improve as the season goes on.

     

    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    To the original poster - I don't think teams stacking the box is their way of disrespecting Rivers.  Rivers is top 5 in the league in deep ball accuracy and he's shown multiple times he still has an arm.  I think teams do fear Taylor a bit, he has shown on several occasions (including his first NFL catch) how fast he is and how dangerous he can be if he gets into space.  Our offensive play calling has also been pretty predictable at times.  Finally, I think the main reason why teams are stacking the box is because we don't really seem to have a true deep threat.  TY and Rivers have not been in sync all season, TY's had a few bad drops and I think he has lost a step (maybe I'm wrong, but he doesn't seem like the same dynamic TY and I think he was better the first half of last year with Brissett, so I don't think he was just a product of Luck).  Rivers lost his fastest WR, Campbell, and has been without his biggest WR, Pittman.  Going into the season with TY, Pittman, Campbell as the top 3 WRs really seemed like they'd be able to blow the top off defenses -- after 3 games it seems like TY's not the TY of old, then Pascal, Fountain and Dulin don't seem to have been able to strike much fear into opposing defenses (though, I do think Dulin could be a deep threat).  Maybe Marcus Johnson will turn out to be a deep threat -- he's averaging 20.9 yards per catch... and in the 3 games he's played he has had a long of 27, then 36, then 55 yards.  If he keeps that up against stiffer competition, teams will likely have to start accounting for it or pay the price if they keep stacking the box.

  4. 4 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

    Soft zone defense all game which has yet to stop anyone all year.

     

    3 hours ago, aaron11 said:

    i'll say it was the interceptions.  the colts dominated most stats besides completion %

     

    ^I'll say you're both right.. along with not converting a 4th and short inside Jax's 10.  

     

    The Jags didn't really beat us that game, we beat ourselves... but as recent trends go, we stink against JAX in JAX and we stink at season openers... hopefully that'll change, soon.

     

    Also, losing Mack early in that game probably had a lot to do with our offensive game plan (IMO)... we threw 46 times and ran 22 - Mack was having a lot of success running, we struggled after he went down.

    • Like 1
  5. 8 hours ago, Nickster said:

    I think he’s hall of fame material.
     

     But I can understand that he’d only qualify for the hall of very good in some people’s minds.  The playoffs and being probably only the 8th or 9th best during his time compared to peers like Manning, Brady, Roethilsberger, Brees, Wilson, Rogers, etc.  

     

    He was usually closer to top 10 than top 5.

     

    I tend to disagree here.  Have all the guys you mentioned had better seasons than Rivers?  Yes.  Have more than 4 done it in the same year? Aside from last year, I think not (admittedly, part of that is due to the other guys being injured for long stretches of time).  

     

    Rivers has also had seasons where he was better, at least statistically, than all of the guys mentioned here.  In 2008 he led the league in passer rating and tied for lead with Brees for TDs (Brees had more yards, but also threw almost 200 more attempts and still had the same amount of TDs and a lower passer rating), that is one example where Rivers was either the best or 2nd best QB in the league for a season.  He's had other seasons where he has led the league in passing or completion percentage.  

     

    I'm not saying he's better than Peyton, Brady or Brees (the 3 guys with the best stats in NFL history)... but aside from winning SBs, he's put up better numbers than Big Ben throughout his career, he's thrown for >4,000 yards 11 times (Wilson has done it 3 times), and if he retired this year, Rodgers would likely have to play at least 3 full seasons at a high level to touch Rivers' numbers (Rodgers has 2 MVPs and the best passer rating of all-time, so he won't need to do that to get in anyway).

     

    I do see your point... when Rivers retires he won't be considered the 'top' QB of his era.. but he's played through several waves of very solid QBs (Peyton, Brady, Brees were already established when Rivers got here -- Eli and Ben had 2 years under their belt before Rivers took the reigns from Brees, even though Rivers was drafted the same time of them), then guys like Rodgers (got to start 1 or 2 years after Rivers due to sitting on the bench behind Favre), Wilson, Luck, Newton, and now Mahommes, Burrows, Lamar Jackson, etc. have entered the league after  Rivers got started... regardless, he's been a top 10 QB through all of it, while never playing under a HOF coach or on an elite team (with the exception of 2012 and 2019).  So in 14 seasons as a starter, he's been in the top 10 on 12 occasions, and out of those 12, I think he's been at 5 or higher at least 50% of the time.

     

     

    • Like 1
  6. I think Taylor has been consistently improving.  His overall numbers will likely depend on what Reich/Sirianni do with the O play calling.  We seem to have had more imbalanced than balanced games on O (really aside from week 3 against NYJ).

     

    Week | Pass Attempts | Run Attempts

    1        | 46                    | 22

    2        | 25                    | 40

    3        | 25                   | 31

    4        | 29                   | 38

    5        | 33                   |18

    6       | 44                   | 15

     

    Both Hines and Wilkins have seen big drops in carry attempts the past couple of weeks (Wilkins got 9 carries each in week 3 and 4 and 1 each in week 5 and 6... Hines got 7 in week 3, 9 in week 4, 1 in week 5, 0 in week 6).  Personally, I am glad to see the reduction in Hines' carries, especially when it's a draw from shotgun and they run him up the middle.

     

    Taylor has been 4.0 YPC or greater since week 3 and he seems to be developing more of a relationship with Rivers as receiving back.  

     

    Obviously some games will dictate our game plans (e.g., last week we were down 21 and had to pass heavy).  Though, I think Reich and Sirianni will likely try to balance things out more in the second half of the season.  I expect Taylor to start getting a handful more carries per game and to also continue to see an increased role catching out of the backfield.  He seems like he's getting more comfortable with his OL and with his vision every week.  I expect he'll continue to improve and that we'll see him playing an increasingly bigger role in the O as the season rolls on.

     

    If he keeps his YPC up over 4, doesn't cough it up, increases his receiving numbers and stays healthy, I'll be very happy with his performance as a rookie.  I'm not setting any benchmarks for him, but I think he's well on his way to being close to or surpassing a 1,000 yard rushing season (needs to average 75 yards per game to do so).  

    • Like 1
  7. On 10/23/2020 at 10:05 PM, DontEverGiveUp said:

    Sure, if it's a popularity contest.

     

    But statistically, Rivers was the best QB in the league from 2008-2010.  He was top 3 in 2013 and 2018.

     

    And for comparison's sake, let's look at Brady vs Rivers in the years I listed.  Rivers undoubtedly had better performances in 2008, 2009, 2013, and 2018. 

     

    Heck, Brady only played part of 1 game in 2008, while Rivers led the league in TDs, TD%, Y/A, AY/A, and passer rating...I'd love to find the person who thinks he had a better season than Rivers that year.

     

    And let me expand on that 2008 season, and how it proves Rivers has been criminally underrated (which leads to many of these unnecessary HOF discussions).  Imagine a QB that leads the entire NFL in TDs, TD%, Y/A, AY/A, and passer rating but doesn't even get voted to the pro bowl.  I don't think a QB has ever been more robbed of accolades than Philip Rivers that year.  Should have been MVP.

     

    Brees got offensive player of year that year, and threw for more yards and the Saints offense put up more points.  He and Rivers tied for league lead in TDs (both 34) with Kurt Warner (30), Aaron Rodgers (28), Peyton (27) rounding out the top 5.  Brees did throw 635 attempts and Rivers 478, which explains the difference in yards.  Rivers rating was a 105.5, followed by Chad Pennington (97.4), Warner (96.9), Brees (96.2), Peyton (95.0).... I think it's kind of a toss-up between Brees and Rivers for offensive player of year that year and think the fact that Brees got it is OK given that the Saints had the most explosive offense in the NFL that year and he was the leader of it.

     

    Peyton got MVP.  Rivers had superior yards, TDs, rating, TDs and less INTs than Peyton.  Peyton had slightly better completion percentage.  Peyton won MVP because the Colts went 12-4 and he led a lot of comebacks.... the Chargers went 8-8.... so statistically, yes, Rivers was better than Peyton but in part due to popularity and in part due to Peyton's comeback wins and leading a team to 12 wins... kind of hard to argue very strongly for one or the other there (Rivers had bettter stats, Peyton's team had more wins and maybe relied on Peyton more).  Oddly enough, Rivers knocked Peyton out of the playoffs that season (the day after Peyton was named MVP).

     

    The ProBowl that year was ridiculous -- and that is often times a popularity contest -- Peyton was starter (OK), but the backups (Favre and Cutler) and alternate (Kerry Collins) were ridiculous.  No way Rivers shouldn't have gotten the nod over them.

     

    But yes, you are correct, Rivers statistically had multiple seasons where he was top 2-3 in the league and in 2008 it was clear he and Brees were the two best.  This shouldn't be a 3 page long thread, as it's not even an argument.  Rivers is a HOFer, undoubtedly.

     

    On 10/23/2020 at 11:27 PM, NewColtsFan said:

    Rivers has never been a Hall of Famer for me.

     

    I think he’s in the Hall of the very, very good.  I suspect he will eventually get in the Hall.  He’s been very good for a long time and has put up lots of numbers.  So odds are the Chargers franchise will make a big push for him.   I won’t complain.   But if I had a vote, I doubt he’d get it.   Just my two cents....

     

    If you dissect his stats, and really dig into his career - how do you justify not voting for him?

     

    He'll retire in the top 5 all-time in passing yards and TDs.  He is an 8x probowler (would be 10 but he declined 2x as an alternate).  He led the league in passing TDs and had the highest QB rating, yards per attempt and TD % in 2008.  He led the league in passing yards 2010.  He led the league in completion percentage 2013.  He was 2013 NFL Comeback Player of Year.  He's got the 5th longest streak of consecutive starts in NFL history (in 3 more games he'll move to 4th all time).  

     

    He is top 10 all-time in yards per game (above Rogers, Roethlisberger, Eli).  He is top 10 all-time in passer rating.  He is top 10 all-time in passing yards per attempt and adjusted passing yards per attempt (top 5 in net yards per attempt).  He is top 10 all-time in passing completion %.  He's top 5 all-time in passes completed, though only 7th in pass attempts.  With 1 more 4th quarter comeback, he'll be top 10 in that category.    

     

    He is 13th all-time in approximate value - look at the names he is ahead of on this list: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/av_career.htm

     

    He has never had a top-tier defense nor has he had a HOF coach (something Peyton and Brady for good chunks of their career, and likely what Big Ben has in Tomlin).  He is 5-6 in the postseason and other than 2006 (his first year as a starter) he hasn't been too bad in the playoffs.  He has a 2-1 playoff record over Peyton (2-0 vs. Peyton as a Colt).  

     

    In 2020, on a new team with a depleted roster (lost WR 2 and 3, RB 1, and has seen all 3 of his top TEs miss time) he has a 69.7% completion percentage.  He is in the top 10 in most wins by a starting QB all-time.  

     

    I have a hard time believing that Rivers doesn't deserve to be in the HOF, though I'd like to hear a logical argument as to why he doesn't deserve to be there or why you wouldn't vote for him.

     

    5 hours ago, w87r said:

    Longevity and being accessible to your teammates is a pretty important thing.

     

    Couple that with top 6 list in most statistical categories = HOF

     

     

    Don't act like we're on a Chargers board amd a bunch of homers.

     

    Most Colts fans didnt even like Rivers till he got here. Respected his grind but wasnt a fan.

     

    He'll be in the top 5 in yards by week 10 and likely in top 5 in TDs by end of season (definitely if he plays another year).  

     

    And yes, Rivers was 2-0 vs. Peyton in the playoffs when Peyton was a Colt.  He also had a 7-2 overall record against Indy before he came here.  He had the noted interaction with Colts fans after winning here when they were flipping him off and he was chirping back at them.  A lot of people thought he was a whiner, etc... so no, Rivers hasn't been historically liked by Colts fans, mostly because he consistently was able to beat Indy.

     

    5 hours ago, Nickster said:

    Definitely on numbers.  No doubt shoo in.  2nd or 3rd year probably unless he somehow wins a SB this year or next then first balloter.

     

    im not saying he should be, but he will be.

     

    Just curious as to why he shouldn't be... you're right, based on his career, he is a 100% shoo-in to the HOF.  

  8. 3 hours ago, Myles said:

    I get that, I'd just prefer it be tougher to get in.   Since the game changes and the rules change, I think comparing to other players playing the same position at the same time is the most fair way to do it.  

     

    I see where you are coming from to some extent... but don't fully agree.  I think if you ask just about anyone who follows football and has for a long time to name the top 3 QBs ever, both Brady and Manning will be mentioned.  There are 23 QBs from the modern-era in the Pro Football HOF.  Several of those guys were not the best at their position at any point in their career.

     

    Troy Aikman won multiple superbowls on absolutely loaded teams, but he was never a first or second team all-pro and was only a 6x pro-bowler (Rivers has gone to 8).  Aikman never lead the league in any major passing stat in any season of his career.  In 2008 Rivers threw the most TDs and had the highest passer-rating of any QB in the league, in 2010 Rivers lead the league in passing yards, in 2013 he lead the league in completion percent.  Aikman throughout his career was never really at the top of the league in terms of QB play (as evidenced by no first or second all-pro selections and never leading the NFL in any significant passer category) -- most would say Marino, Montana (early in AIkman's career), Steve Young, John Elway, Brett Favre, Jim Kelly, Warren Moon, and late in his career Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning were better QBs than Aikman.

     

    That's one example out of many where guys who are in the HOF may not have been the top dog at any given point in their career, but still had a HOF career.  Compared to guys who he was drafted with who are likely HOFers, Rivers has better individual statistics than both Eli and Big Ben.  He was never really on an 'elite' team all-around (especially lacking a top notch defense like Eli and Ben both had during their SB wins).  RIvers beat Peyton in the playoffs and despite playing with other HOFers like Brady, Peyton, Brees, Eli, Big Ben, Kurt Warner, Favre, etc.. he made the pro-bowl 8x, and in 2008 when every one of those guys were in the league he still lead the league in passer rating and TDs thrown.

     

    2 hours ago, SpanosSucks said:


    I always hated the “no success” in the post season as a reason for not being elite.  Post season success is a team issue. 
     

    06 - First year of playing.  LT was having a MVP season.  Little was expected of Rivers.  Multiple stupid penalties, a fumbled INT, and a missed FG essentially lost that

     

    07 - He played on a torn ACL against a 16-0 patriots team.  Can’t really expect anything spectacular 

     

    08 - Team was 8-8.  They weren’t expected to win the super bowl.  He threw 3 TD in the loss to Steelers, but defense and special teams sucked

     

    09 - lost by 3.  Kaeding missed 3 FG.  He did throw a costly INT that lead to 7 points, but game was still winnable. 

     

    13 - played pretty good, but vanilla ground and pound playcalling ruined game.  Had a chance to come back at the end but classic Chargers allowed Manning to convert a 3rd and 18 to seal the game

     

    18 - threw 3 TDs, but the defense got absolutely shredded by patriots.  
     

    not saying he played the best he’s ever played in these games.  But he didn’t play horrible in any of them.  His lack of post season success isn’t from him crumbling in playoffs.  It was just Chargers being Chargers. 

     

    I get why post-season success can push a borderline guy (see Eli) over the edge.  But since Rivers has been in the league there have been 2 occassions when the QB representing the AFC team in the Superbowl wasn't named Brady, Peyton or Ben (1x Flacco with a loaded defense and 1x Mahommes who just had one of the greatest seasons by a QB in NFL history).  

     

    The level Rivers has played at, for the amount of time he's played, makes him a surefire HOFer (he's about to surpass Marino's records and the only knock on Marino was he didn't win a SB).  First ballot? Maybe... will he get in within a couple years of being eligible? Definitely.

    • Like 1
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  9. 9 hours ago, Colt.45 said:

     

    Fair point. One of them was gone for a year. 

    However, since we're adding caveats, lets note that one of them is on a new team, new city, and hadn't played with the guys on his offense before.

     

    Rivers was also forced to do virtual learning/meetings with his new team and coaching staff due to covid.  The Rookies on this team had very little NFL experience compared to years past (Pittman was the #2 WR and Taylor has become the number #1 RB this season).  If I recall correctly, Luck played very little in preseason games that year... but this year Rivers and his teammates didn't even get to play preseason games.

     

    Also, through 6 weeks Rivers has lost his RB 1 (Mack), WRs 2 and 3 (Pittman and Campbell), and has seen all 3 of his TEs (Doyle, Burton, MAC) miss games.  

     

    On top of that, TY seems like a different (not in a good way) TY than he was in 2018.  I think he's slowing down a bit and he and Rivers don't really seem to be on the same page yet (TY has played several years with Luck prior to 2018).  I'd say the only part of this offense (not including QB) compared to 2018 which is better is the OL and maybe over time the RB (Taylor looks better the past few games than he did early on).  The WR and TE play has seemingly declined.

     

    8 hours ago, Nesjan3 said:

    Yes but if your comparing the two quarterbacks to say both are entering new systems is just pretty unfair to Luck

     

    Rivers has familiarity with Reich and Sirianni from SD (Reich was QB coach in 2013 and OC in 2014-2015).  Reich then spent a couple seasons as OC in Philly.  Sirianni was quality control, QB coach, WR coach when he was in San Diego.  This is a similar system to a previous system Rivers had been in, but it's not the same system and it has entirely new players, who Rivers didn't even get to play a pre-season game with.

     

    ___________________

     

    All-in-all, I think Rivers has played very well.  He put that ball 50 yards in the air on a perfect strike to Marcus Johnson last week.  He's still got arm strength and accuracy.  He made two dumb throws in JAX which resulted in INTs and two dumb throws against CLE which were INTs.  He's not fast, but he never was... I really have no concerns with his arm strength and if he can just limit his mistakes (it's like 95-99% of the game he plays very well and then 1-5% of the game he does something dumb), I think he'll be just fine.  Outside of the CLE game, the OL is keeping him pretty clean, which is something I think he's still getting used to after his last few years in SD.  

  10. 7 hours ago, Nesjan3 said:

    Seems like he is always getting spotlightled whether it be for a dumb mistake, getting burned, or a nice play. Either way a good trait of a corner is when you dont hear about him. That means he is doing his job. Rock is getting targeted as a weak spot on our team for sure.

     

    I'm not really sure that Rock is a 'weak link.'  Personally, I think Willis is the 'weak link' of our secondary.  That said, Rhodes seems like he's back to probowl form after a down year last year and I imagine after his pick six and other INT that teams are more likely to pick on Rock that Rhodes.

     

    7 hours ago, Two_pound said:

    I don't think any of our defensive backs look very good when they are playing stand around zone defense. The more aggressive they play the better they are(Kenny Moore especially). We actually have a pretty solid group of db's.

     

    Agreed -- though, the problem with Kenny Moore is he is really not very good when he has to line up outside.  I know he typically only does that if an injury happens, but he becomes a liability out there (IMO).  However, as a nickelback, I think he's one of the best in the entire NFL.  Just hoping we don't have any injuries to Rhodes or Rock so that Kenny can stay on the inside, which is where I think he belongs.

     

    Overall, I'm happy with our starting secondary.  I think Willis is the week link in the backfield, but he's a pretty solid 'weak link' (much like Glow on the OL).  I have liked what I've seen from Tavon Wilson at S and trust Odum.... I also have liked most of what I've seen from Carrie.. but do think we'll have to continue addressing CB depth this off season.

     

    6 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

    Two weeks in a row now the Colts defensive has played poorly in the 1st half only to come back and allow only a FG in the 2nd half.  The defense is for real but they need to come out of the gate faster.  To me it shows that Flus is not a very good game planner but he is good and reading the game and making adjustments.  I'm sure they do this but if not, I think Flus needs to figure out how other teams are going to game plan against his defense and then develop the game plan on that.  It seems like all he does his look at the opposing team film and develops his game plan from that, he does not take into account the adjustments the other team will make based on the Colts game film.

     

    The D definitely seemed to be much better in the 2nd half the past two weeks.  To 'Flus (and the D's) credit - the offense did them no favors by fumbling on our own 43 last week on the opening drive, aside from killing momentum, that gave Cincy a short field to start with.  The Browns were averaging 39.3 points per game the 3 matchups prior to the game against Indy and they have a very solid O (two pro-bowl caliber WRs in OBJ, Landry, a solid OL and a solid running attack).  

     

    I agree with you, the D needs to start out faster, but I don't know that I credit the slower starts to Flus' game plan the past two weeks as much as I do to they started in very poor field position against Cincy and the Browns area legitimate offense when Mayfield's healthy and on his game.

  11. 5 minutes ago, CR91 said:

     

    So you're nitpicking about receptions? Or off the field issues? Ray Lewis was accused of double murder and he's a first ballot hofer. 

     

    No, in your first post you say stats aren't important without post-season success.  Then you use a very poor example by comparing Rivers to Kenny Anderson.  Your logic in this post was very flawed.

     

    Then you suggest I don't realize today's NFL is more passer-friendly than it was when Kenny Anderson played, which you were wrong about.

     

    Then you come back with another post suggesting that stats do matter and use a list with 75% of the guys you named not having a superbowl ring (only Marv has 1).  Then you lie about your statistics, so not only were you trying to reverse your stance on flawed logic, you were lying with your claims (by the way Carter isn't in the top 10 in receiving yards).  

     

    Ray Lewis wasn't (i.e., was NOT) found guilty on double murder.  He is also pretty much unarguably the best middle linebacker of his generation and arguably of all time (and had multiple super bowl rings).  Ray Lewis was always considered a team leader and an exceptional team mate.  There was a video of Randy Moss hitting a crossing guard with his car.  Randy Moss was known for taking plays off if he felt like it.  Owens had character issues on and off the field his entire career (including spitting in an opponents face on the field and overdosing on pain killers off the field).  Owens truly displayed his character by being the only member of the NFL HOF to skip his induction ceremony and instead held a private party.  Marvin punched a young fan at the pro bowl and was in the news related to multiple shootings outside his carwash very near the time he was up for eligibilty.

     

    I'm really not nitpicking anything at all.  I'm saying you have flawed logic to start the argument and you are lying (maybe not intentionally, maybe you're desperate and don't realize you're making stuff up) and reversing on your logic from your initial argument.  And you're obviously not reading my posts fully and are seemingly attempting to be a troll.

     

     

  12. 2 minutes ago, CR91 said:

     

    So are we talking just QB stats? Because guys like Randy Moss and Terrell Owens who are top 3 in every WR category were not first ballot. Cris Carter was not first ballot and he retired with all the best numbers at WR at that time. Our own Marv wasn't first ballot.

     

    Didn't you say in your previous post that stats don't mean anything?

     

    QB is a different position than WR, obviously.  And if you read my post, I'm saying I think Rivers has the credentials to be first-ballot but he'll have a lot of competition with guys who will be retiring at or near the same time as him and who will likely be on the ballot at the same time.  This all comes into play with the selection committee.

     

    And then let's get to the facts... Rivers is going to be top 5 in passing yards and most likely passing TDs when he retires.  Right now he is one of only 6 QBs ever to throw over 60,000 yards and 400 + TDs.

     

    Randy Moss was a first ballot HOFer, so you're wrong there.

     

    Randy Moss is 15th all time in receptions, he never made it to the 1,000 reception milestone.  So you're wrong that he was 'top 3 in every WR category'.  Terrell Owens is 8th all time in receptions (and wasn't in the top 5 when he retired).  Cris Carter's numbers are no where near Jerry Rice's and weren't even in 2002 when he retired (Rice retired in 2004).  I'll give you some credit, Carter at the time he retired was only the 2nd WR to have over 1,100 receptions. 

     

    Also, every one of those players you mentioned had off-field issues.  While they are not supposed to influence the selection committee, the selection committee is made up of humans and undoubtedly they do.  In the case of Moss and Owens, they were seen by many as poor teammates for a good chunk of their careers as well.

     

    In Marv's case, Andre Reed got into the HOF in 2014 and Tim Brown in 2015.  Both WRs who had been eligible for a while.  I basically made the same argument about Rivers - Eli will be at least one class ahead of him, so I could see voters giving Eli the nod over Rivers. 

     

     

  13. 1 hour ago, Dingus McGirt said:

    He’s a year removed from last being a starter.  Does anyone really believe he’ll get a starting job elsewhere next year?

     

    Only team I could think of would potentially be New England if Cam and the Patriots don't turn it around and if Belichick comes back.  The only reason I say that is because Jacoby is a disciplined player who doesn't turn the ball over much and he has familiarity with NE.  I think Belichick could win with him being basically a game manager, and if NE drafts a QB who they want to develop, I could see Jacoby making sense for them as a short-term solution.

     

    41 minutes ago, ColtJax said:

    If Eason is ready to be the back up I'd try to trade him now, like to the Cowboys for a 3rd.

     

    Highly doubt we could trade Jacoby for a 3rd.  I don't think he's any better than Dalton, anyway.

    • Like 1
  14. 3 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

    Ben is still playing so you can't say that with any reality. 

    I think Rivers gets in first ballet unlike some who don't. 

    The thing is players have to wait five years. Opinions change over that time. 

    A lot of fans don't realize that 48 members of the HOF vote on who gets in and when they get in. 

     

     

    By the end of this year, barring injury, Rivers will definitely be top 5 All-Time in Passing Yards.  He'll likely be top 5 in passing TDs.  I am with you, the HOF has a lot of factors, but they aren't selecting 'teams' they are selecting individual players.  The fact Rivers doesn't have a SB will likely hurt him in the eyes of some voters, and it's the only thing I think which could keep him from being first ballot (potentially along with his retiring class and who else is on the ballot).  Eli likely won't return to the NFL, so he'll be eligible at least one year prior to Rivers - I don't see Eli as first ballot, but he'll get in.... I could see some voters selecting him over Rivers if Eli isn't in the same year Rivers is eligible.  Rivers will also be retiring likely around the same time as Big Ben, Brees, Brady, and some other guys who are sure-shot first ballot HOFers like Larry Fitzgerald, Jason Witten, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, etc...

     

    That said, it'd be pretty darn hard for a person on the selection committee to have a good argument as to why he/she decided to not vote in a quarterback (the most important position in NFL football) who had top 5 career statistics.

     

    Another interesting stat on Rivers: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/av_career.htm  He's 12th all time in approximate value.  Every guy ahead of him who has been eligible for the HOF is in the HOF and most players behind him, all the way down to 100 are in the HOF if they've been eligible to be there.  Heck, if you look at the top 50 of all time, the only two who haven't gotten in and have been eligible are Kenny Anderson and Jim Tryer (tied for 49).  

     

    Also, to Rivers' credit on not having a SB.... look at the AFC superbowl representative since 2004-2005 (the year Rivers was drafted, even though he didn't start full-time until 2006). 

     

     2004 - New England (Brady)

    2005 - Pittsburgh (Ben)

    2006 - Indy (Peyton)

    2007 - New England (Brady)

    2008 - Pittsburgh (Ben)

    2009 - Indy (Peyton)

    2010 - Pittsburgh (Ben)

    2011 - New England (Brady)

    2012 - Baltimore (Flacco - who had a great post-season run but had an absolutely stacked D, arguably the best D ever)

    2013 - Denver (Peyton)

    2014 - New England (Brady)

    2015 - Denver (Peyton)

    2016 - New England (Brady)

    2017 - New England (Brady)

    2018 - New England (Brady)

    2019 - KC (Mahommes)

     

    Never before in NFL history has a team (New England with Brady and Belichick) been that dominant for such a long stretch.  I think everyone would agree that Brady, Peyton and Big Ben are all HOF QBs.  Flacco, highly unlikely.  Mahommes, if he stays healthy, may go down with a strong case of being the GOAT.  

     

    Not like Rivers has had it easy in the AFC since he's been in the league.  The Colts were the winningest team of any decade in NFL history and made it to the SB twice during that stretch.  Brady/Bellichick were so dominant for so long together.  Flacco won it on a team with a top 5 defense of all time.  Mahommes and Ben are no slouches and had very good coaches and teams when they won.

     

    • Thanks 1
  15. 24 minutes ago, CR91 said:

     

    You realize you're talking about an era where teams were just starting to throw the football. At the end of the day, stats mean nothing without playoff success and vise-versa

     

    Your initial post read: "I don't know. I kinda put him in the Kenny Anderson category. Great QB with stats to back it up, but no or little success in the post season. He'll get in, but not before Eli and Ben"

     

    Kinda seems like stats mean something.  And your logic is totally flawed.  The HOF has a lot of factors and it is for individual players, not for teams.  Therefore, stats do matter.  If the HOF selection criteria was based mainly on playoff success, like you suggest in this post (contradicting your first post), then Trent Dilfer, Mark Rypien, Jeff Hostetler, Brad Johnson and Jim McMahon all are more deserving of a HOF spot than Dan Marino.  You realize how smart you sound?

     

    Yes, I understand it's a more pass happy league now.  In his 16 NFL seasons, Kenny Anderson was a top 10 QB in 4, maybe 5 of those years (~25%).  In his 14 seasons as a starter, Rivers has been top 10 in 12 or 13 of them  (>85%) - many of them in the top 5.

     

    The case for Kenny Anderson to be a HOFer is a very long shot (maybe his 1 MVP year out of 16?? No).  The case for Rivers as a HOFer is a 100% sure shot, he is well-deserving of it.  Winning a SB would be icing on the cake.    

  16. 16 hours ago, coming on strong said:

    rings do matter though .   if eli manning has zero rings does he get into HOF?    Its only one aspect though as i said in my other post .   dan marino is in because of the records and mvps.  My point was if you a player is not a legendary player and is borderline hall of fame then rings matter .   With Eli the rings will push him over the edge , same with rivers  i said rivers is ranked in my opinion 6 out of 32 during his prime a ring pushes him even and makes him tied with big ben for 5th making with a first ballard pick .  

     

    Eli also won two SB MVPs and beat Brady both times.  That is kinda huge.

     

    15 hours ago, CR91 said:

    I don't know. I kinda put him in the Kenny Anderson category. Great QB with stats to back it up, but no or little success in the post season. He'll get in, but not before Eli and Ben

     

    Well Eli will be eligible at least 1 year earlier than Rivers, so highly unlikely Rivers beats him in.  Rivers has better career stats than both of them, more pro-bowls than both of them, in 2008 Rivers was the NFL passing TD leader and passer rating leader, in 2010 he lead the league in passing yards, in 2013 he lead the league in completion percentage.  Big Ben 2x had the most passing yards in his career, but never close to best completion percentage, TDs or completion percentage.  

     

    As a side note, I think your Kenny Anderson comparison is a bit ridiculous - Rivers has >5% better career completion percentage, double the passing yards and TDs.

     

    5 hours ago, indykmj said:

    No. But regardless, he'll probably eventually be voted in.

     

    If nothing else, his (likely) post football, media gig will allow him to further score points 

    enough voters on the fence to get it done.

     

    If Rivers does go into broadcasting, it should have absolutely nothing to do with him being voted into the HOF as a player.  

     

    ________________________________________________________________________

     

    Yes, Rivers is a HOFer.  He'll finish his career top 5 all time in passing yards and likely top 5 in passing TDs (surpassing Marino in yards likely by week 10 of this season and he's 16 TDs shy of Marino).  


    Rivers is an 8x pro-bowler (Eli was a 4x pro  bowler, Big Ben a 6x pro bowler).  Rivers was arguably the best QB in the league in 2008 (led the league in TDs and passer rating), otherwise he was usually top 5 (behind Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers -- maybe two or three seasons behind Big Ben).  Peyton, Brady, Brees are the three most prolific QBs in pretty much every single significant passing category in NFL history.   Rivers has also led the league in passing yards and completion percentage on other occasions, was the 2013 NFL Comeback Player of Year, and his 230 consecutive starts I think are 6th most in NFL history.

     

    I don't think he'll be first ballot without winning a ring, but he has every other credential to be a HOFer.  It'd be absolutely ridiculous if a guy who finished his career in the top 5 all-time in passing yards and passing TDs, only 1 of 10 QBs of all time with a career passer rating of 95.0 or better, top 5 in passes completed, top 10 in passing yards per game, and top 10 in passer completion percentage does not get into the HOF.

     

    This really isn't an argument.  Look at the numbers.  Rivers is, undoubtedly, a hall of famer.

    • Like 2
  17. 21 minutes ago, dw49 said:

     

    You are forgiven .

    BTW.. I also noticed Blankership was really drilling his kicks yesterday. Looked like more power and less finesse than previous games ?

     

    What @Superman said -- he was putting his XP's perfectly down the middle.  Not really sure if his power increased or not, but his accuracy was insane.  I'd like to see one of those 'ghost' videos they do w/ bowlers to see how close each one of his kicks were to the others, to me it seemed like every kick hit the net directly in the middle (between the uprights), but I'd like to see if they were all hitting the same height on the net.

     

    16 minutes ago, Superman said:

     

    For a team that blitzes so little (11.1%, last in the league), we have a respectable pressure rate (21.2%, 14th ranked, 4th among teams that blitz less than 20%). Also best in the league in adjusted net yards/attempt (4.3). We have the best pass DVOA in the league, and that's with giving up a few big plays here and there. 

     

    So we're pretty good for not having a consistent pass rush. Imagine how good we could be if we were able to get more consistent pressure... 

     

    Also, obligatory "we haven't played any good offenses yet" should be inserted here. I'm glad the defense is playing well now, but we have some good offenses after the bye. A nice five week stretch includes the Lions (not great, but Stafford is dangerous), the Titans twice, Ravens and Packers. We'll have a better idea what we look like after that. And we don't really get a break after that -- still have two against the Texans, the Steelers and the Raiders. I don't think we'll finish top five in total or passing defense this season. Maybe top ten if we stay healthy.

     

     

    They were right down the middle.

     

    Yes, I think it's pretty inevitable that our defensive ranking will decline as we play better offenses.  

     

    Aside from being interested to see how our passing D does against Stafford, Jackson, Rogers, Big Ben, Carr and Watson -- I'm a bit nervous about how our D will hold up against the run with Derek Henry.  Additionally, with the lack of blitz, it seemed like our DL can struggle with QBs who can get outside the pocket (ala Baker Mayfield) -- so I'll be interested to see how 'Flus game plans against Lamar Jackson who is, IMO, a much more mobile QB than Baker.

  18. 16 minutes ago, Superman said:

     

    I'd like to see the pass rush be more consistent, and sometimes it seems like the run fits get a little screwy (first half yesterday and last week, first half against the Jags), but while watching over the last few weeks I'm feeling like the DL is maybe the best unit on the team. Especially accounting for depth. The OL probably has a better starting unit, but the DL reserves are pretty good. 

     

    Yes, the DL is definitely a solid unit.  Hopefully we get Turay back and it improves further.

     

    I agree with you about the pass rush being more consistent... though, considering we rarely blitz (I think we send non-DL players after the QB the least out of any team in the league), it's really not too bad (granted we haven't had much experience this year against top-notch OLs).  

  19. 10 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

    Our defense looked lethargic in the 1st Qtr for some reason but Burrow is no joke, he is good. They put us in a huge hole. 

     

    Well, Doyle's fumble on our half of the field on the first offensive drive certainly didn't help any yesterday.

     

    Kinda similar to the Browns game, the D started kinda sluggish but really clamped things down as the game went on.  

     

    Agreed with you, Burrows is a very solid QB.  He also has a very solid set of guys around him between Higgins, Boyd, Green, Mixon and Bernard.

     

    • Like 1
  20. 3 hours ago, indyagent17 said:

    I don't think Reich is going anywhere this year or next but If we finish under .500 then I could see different coordinators. What I and most of you find troubling is the poor starts on both side of the ball.  

     

    We had a slow start on O yesterday... otherwise, we've been starting faster on O this year than we have in many years scoring TDs on our first drive in 4 of our first 6 games.  Versus Minnesota Rivers threw a pick (that was the ball which bounced of MAC's chest right around the goal-line) at the end of a very solid drive and then the Colts scored a TD on their second drive.

    • Like 3
  21. 7 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

    I am not arguing they should have run more.  I just said the run was relatively ineffective when they tried to run which it was.

    Two of our most effective plays were Taylor's run out of the shot-gun today.. it was effective when it needed to be.

  22. 6 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:

       My HS has the same coach from the time I was a 2nd Grader until I was in college and his Wing T was taught and/or run starting in 7th grade

     I agree 100% and have said so multiple times

    Makes sense!  (Grammar-wise, did you go to Princeton?) 

  23. 1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

    Sorry but it’s wasn’t.  38 of Taylor’s 60 yards came on two carries and heavily skewed his average.  Take those two runs out and his average drops to 1.57 ypc.  Those two runs were exceptions to how it went the rest of the day.

     

    the TD run with Burton was a nice trick play but I am not factoring that in as a sign the run game as a whole is work mist like I wouldn’t hold it against the run game had it not worked.  It’s a gimmick play in its own category.

     

    That's fine.. we won the game... if you're the coach and we're down 21-0 are you going to try to run every play or are you going to pass?  If you choose the former, I don't want  you as my coach.

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