TomDiggs

I am hopeful on OL if we move on from Kelly and upgrade at RG I am genuinely excited about Raimann and his progress and development at LT Even with down years after getting paid, I am still high on the ability to bounce back for Quenton and Braden. We need to upgrade at OC and RG I am actually high on the young TEs. Ogletree is going to be a welcome surprise if he comes in healthy this year. Woods' potential is through the roof. Granson can still make things happen. We need a slot WR that can separate (I don't care how big they are size-wise even if Ballard does). But it all starts w fixing OC and RG in my opinion.

Regarding Lamar and his asks, there's a handful of info out on Lamar that has been validated to then be able to pull the thread and infer what he likely wants He turned down a long term 5-year deal that Schefter outlined that they saw where he had $175M guaranteed for injury and where there was a "springing guarantee" where the guaranteed money would jump to $200M if he was on the roster on the 5th day of 2026. So protection against injury he had $175M guaranteed. And a $25M guarantee activated in year 4 of a 5 year deal if he lasted that long that would have resulted in $200M guaranteed. Lamar turned that down. He then talked about a shorter fully guaranteed deal. So Baltimore then offered the 3 year deal at $133M fully guaranteed (~$44M APY) Lamar turned that down. BMore then threw their hands up. They tried all different ways and kepy getting a no. Now the interesting part is in terms of QBs the largest guaranteed money (fully guaranteed) to date: Watson ($230M) Russ ($124M) Kyler ($103M) ARod ($102M) J.Allen ($100M) Even if you extrend that to "practical guarantees" which are likely to be earned you get: Watson ($230) Kyler ($189) Russ ($161) ARod ($151) Allen ($150) Mahomes ($141) Stafford ($130) Dak ($126) Goff ($110) M.Ryan ($100- over his extended contract from ATL to IND) It is very easy to see that the 5 year deal would put him above all but Watson in full guarantees and above all but Watson and Kyler in practical guarantees. You could even put him over Kyler at the $200M mark w the springing guarantee being deemed practical. So if he is saying no to all that and also to the amount on the shorter term full guarantee then it is easy to pull the thread and say hes looking for a Watson contract and he either wants $200m+ fully guaranteed on a 5 yr deal or he wants a shorter 3 year deal fully guaranteed at more than $133M which probably means he wants around $150M or so there. just food for thought

My guess is he will have some WR incentives and either playing time or team success incentives. but the going rate for elite ST types is around $2.5-$3M a year. That’s what Matthew Slater tends to get. so a purely ST contract for him would likely be in that 2-$6M range. I’ll be curious to see the finer details when they come out

Also posted this in the big FA thread, but for those looking for Matt Gay contract numbers here they are: Gay got $13M of the $22.5M guaranteed, but $8M of it is in a signing bonus spread over the 4 years, $1.08M is is 2023 salary guaranteed and $3.92M is guaranteed in 2024. So basically no guaranteed money after 2024 and if he were cut in 2025 he would have a $4M dead cap hit compared to his $6.75M charge if on the roster. And if cut heading into 2026 he would have a $2M dead cap hit compared to $6.75M if on the roster. 2023 cash: $9.08M Cap numbers: 2023: $3.08M (guaranteed) 2024: $5.92M (guaranteed) 2025: $6.75M (no guarantees, $4M cap charge if cut) 2026: $6.75M (no guarantees, $2M cap charge if cut)

Contract details coming in for both Ebukam and Gay: Ebukam: Basically around $11M in cash in 2023, but cap hit is probably around $5.3M Then (before incentives), around $7.7M in 2024 and $11M in 2025. With him having the ability to earn an extra $3M total if he reaches sack escalators and playing time/playoff escalators. To have numbers that look like the following is a really reasonable get. Especially with those out-year cap numbers likely jumping: 2023: $5.3M 2023: $7.7M (with incentives making it up to $8.7) 2024: $11.0M (with incentives making it up to $13.0M) Gay: 2023 cash: $9.08M Cap numbers: 2023: $3.08M 2024: $5.92M 2025: $6.75M 2026: $6.75M

Hang on hang on hang on! Let me calm you down and talk you off the ledge lol Matt Gay is a bigtime upgrade. Chase had a good year. He did. But Chase was historically not great before last year. He was a band aid that had a career year. And is not likely to repeat it. Chase's career numbers are decent. 78.8% on FGs. He is even decent at 50+ yards at 81% Where is he brutal? where it matters most for kickers a lot of the time. 40-49 yards. He is a career 59.4% kicker from that range. Oof. Gay was here on the PS in 2020 before the Rams signed him away from our PS. Since then? Gay is 91.5% on FGs, still 75% at 50+ (solid) and exceptional 40-49 at 88% Ballard doesn't spend money for us seemingly ever. I will definitely not bash him for making our team better by spending money. We just got better. A kicker is not a premium position, but the Gay contract is in line with what he should make as a top-5 kicker. And we already know him well from his half a season here hopefully. It is a good get.

Yea he was signed to our PS back then when he lost the TB job to Succop back in the day. He was basically signed as competition/insurance to a rookie Hot Rod and lost out to Hot Rod Rams scooped him around the middle of the season 2020 when they had their own kicker injuries and basically 2021-2022 he has been a top-5 kicker for them. Good get.

Gay should also be handling kick-offs. He has a strong leg and is a big boy (6'0" 232 lbs) and he was 12th in terms of PFF kickoff grade out of 30 Kickers. Chase was 10th. So very similar performance on kick-offs and a pretty great upgrade in FGs/XPs For numbers, he handled 77 kickoffs last year and only 16 were returned. That is just 21% of kickoffs returned. And the average return on those was only 21.6 yards. The average field position start was basically the 26 yard line. Chase (as a comparison) had 47% of his kickoffs returned. So Matt Gay is solid on kickoffs. The last two years Matt Gay has easily been a top-5 kicker. In terms of PFF grading (for those that go by that as a loose rough idea metric), he was a 90.0 last year (4th overall) and 82.6 the year before. Those are basically Justin Tucker/Daniel Carlson/Younghoe Koo type grades He deserves what he just got paid

Dalvin Tomlinson to the Browns on a big deal Side note: As Colts fans we really, really should enjoy Grover this season, because I feel like there is a strong likelihood this will be his last year here. He will be a FA next season and be 31 at that point. The Interior DL market has exploded this off-season. Non-Edge Defensive linemen have received some of the biggest contracts so far: D.Payne- $22.5 average per year (APY) J.Hargrave- $21M APY D.Jones- $17M APY Z.Allen- $16M APY D.Tomlinson- $14.3M APY D.Onyemata- $11.7M APY And this is before the next wave of superstar non-Edge DL get their bag coming up with guys like Quinnen Williams, Jeffery Simmons, Dexter Lawrence, etc Fans should really enjoy him while we can. He has become an absolute monster in the middle and easily is a $15M-$20M APY guy after this year even though he isn't racking up sacks. The league is finally recognizing the value of the big guys that do the dirty work even if they are not 8-10 sack per season guys. Long overdue.

I’m low-key excited to see Domann get some defensive reps was very solid on ST and had that coverage hybrid S/LB profile coming out even being compared to guys like Milano we could do a lot worse.

I should retire from this off-season now on top lol it’ll be my one hit lol

Bobby’s deal

many going in that same range of $6-$7M a year.....Pratt, Edwards, Anzalone, etc I wonder what Bobby is getting offered out there? I hope he lands somewhere where he can star. Like the Giants or some other needy LB team.

Von Bell to Carolina and Jessie Bates to Atlanta? If anyone plays fantasy football in IDP leagues like I do, give me alllllllll the Dax Hill stock lol

I am just guessing here, but it sure looks like Payton is gonna remake that offense to limit Russell Wilson's struggles. Basically create what he was successful with in Seattle. Which is predicated on a great running game. They just spent big big on the OL w McGlinchey and Ben Powers. So they might feel they don't Neeeeeed some of the WRs they have if they shift their offensive focus and philosophy. Still think Jeudy could feast somewhere where there is a timing-based system with how impressive his route running and separation can be

Sheesh. That is a lot lot lot for Edmunds lol

Doubt Bobby O goes there now w them signing both TJ Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds

Also, for those that lament Ballard and him not being aggressive enough and blah blah blah.....Ballard is a master drafter. His background is in scouting and it shows. And the staff he has built is pretty damn great. People have stolen some of our scouts and front office people and have been trying to steal Dodds and Morrocco. These guys tend to ace the draft. But that said, here is a chart showing that Ballard trades up about as often as the average GM....he is not averse to moving up. Just not usually early where it costs a ton. And he is top-5 in moving back as we know. Acquiring more picks and more dart throws to hit on guys later on that he has been so good at hitting on. Also, if you want to know just how good Ballard relative to other NFL GMs in terms of net value based on draft pick trades, see below. He's second only to John Schneider....and Schnieder is also someone who is a bit rogue and moves around a lot but isnt known to move early or in some cases even pick in the first round (didnt make a 1st round pick in 5 of the last 10 years). Anyhow, crush Ballard for his stinginess in free agency. I admit i hate that too. I hate that we dont chase a big fish every now and then. But don't knock the drafting. It is part of why i did not want Ballard to be fired when Reich was. He is damn good in the draft. If you put Howie Roseman's FA and player trading prowess with Ballard's drafting and pick trading prowess, in my opinion you would have the perfect NFL GM.

So a few things to attempt to keep in mind, especially about trades up and tiering of prospects and all: 1) The success you had in college is one component of your evaluation 2) It is only one component though. the tools and potential and how that can translate to the next level is a big part also 3) this is why saying that having these top 4 guys on different tiers, etc may or may not be accurate I would say that Young and Stroud have film that is way more polished and better. no questioning that. But the thing is if you take some of the things youd see on film with Richardson and Levis and translate them to the NFL, their upside could be as high or even higher. I bet there are things they have done on film that Stroud/Young have not and possibly cannot do. Both of Levis and Richardson have major issues with consistency. You wont find things on film that they cannot do. You will find plenty that they did not do or couldnt do on a consistent basis. So that is where Steichen and staff weighing in is so big. If they say "i can work with Levis/Richardson and get those highs out of them on a consistent basis" then those guys absolutely could be in the same tier as stroud and young. For those that like Dan Orlovsky, he broke down stuff with Richardson and the number of drops and throw aways Richardson had (as an example) and determined that legit one-two less drops or throw aways a game and Richardson is hovering at 60% instead of his ridiculously low completion percentage. Just as one example of how things could be different as he progresses. Either way, the biggest thing i take away from the Colts not moving up and the news that they did at least talk w Chicago is that the Colts like some of these QBs enough to entertain moving up. That is a plus. They also did not like them enough to give up the war chest. So that can mean they don't "love" them or that they have them rated closely enough that they did not see Stroud/Young being worth Levis/Richardson and an additional 1, (2) 2s and possibly more. I am totally cool w that.

sounds good. Washington works fine for me. I’ll bite the bullet and deal w defunctional Snyder lol

Happy to take part if it’s “live” as in a rolling draft where you come on the clock and have time to pick and post. admittedly my schedule w Two young kiddos probably would prevent me from doing a legit “live” draft if we all had to be available at one agreed upon time for a long block otherwise I’m good to go

I don’t disagree that there’s probably like a 95% chance a qb is being selected. but for those that don’t like the QB options or are just big Will Anderson or best player available fans, this is just a glimpse into a mock that laid that path out. break up the monotony of us all complaining and fighting over qbs for a brief moment :-)

For the part of the fan base that is of the mindset that if we are on the clock at 4 and don’t love the QB option there (especially if a team trades in front of us at 3 w AZ as in this mock), here is one guys glance of how a 7 round mock could shake out for all teams. I know not getting a QB is brutal. But my god. If we netted this draft I might actually suffer through that lol first four selections for the colts: Will Anderson Jr - Edge Anton Harrison - OT Will McDonald IV - Edge Jonathan Mingo - WR those are four fantastic picks just a fun read https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-nfl-mock-draft-bear-panthers-trade-rodgers-trade-jackson-signing/

I don’t see how people think this is cheap. They got a future 1, (2) 2nds and a top-20 WR The bears getting DJ is huge for them. now they have DJ, Claypool, Mooney and Kmet for Fields.