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Everything posted by shasta519

  1. True...any releases/trades of current players will change the calculus a bit for cash spend...and available cap space even more. Releasing Hoyer AND finding a trade partner for JB (and that $7M roster bonus in addition to his $6M base salary)...would give the Colts upwards of $20M in cap space I think (because JB's dead cap hit would only be his remaining signing bonus of $5.5M).
  2. Yep...in that article you posted..the Colts would have been the top team in requisite cash spend by a significant margin. But Luck's retirement "allowed" them to spend $25M in cash to Hoyer and JB...while only recouping a small amount from Luck retiring. Even OTC in that article speculates about the Colts making move with the threshold in mind. I have argued this for a while. I think it was one of the reasons they gave Rigo and Moore their big deals last offseason.
  3. I think he's talking about cash spending to satisfy the 4-year 89% threshold. The Colts have ~$86m in cap space this offseason...they just need to spend an additional $43M in cash (through guarantees and base salaries) to get to the 89% cash spend threshold over the 2017-2020 period. On a side note...the Colts cash spending vs. cap has been on average a ratio of 1.10...so $43M in cash (per the OTC report) would actually be about $39M in cap space.
  4. Yeah...I think he does seek a well-balanced team...but he also already had that top tier QB when he got here...so it’s pretty easy to not make a fuss over having one.
  5. It’s not desperation...and moving on is far more practical than dreaming on some massive leap next year...if we are talking about having success next year.
  6. I like to think he’s NOT ok with the idea of JB starting. It’s harsh reality...but there is just far too much downside...he’s not cheap...he limits Reich’s playbook...he hampers the pass catchers (which is especially critical for ones developing)...and he’s playing for his career (not trying to mentor his replacement)...and that’s just on the football side of it. Ballard is a smart person...who came from an org that realized Alex Smith (a much more accomplished QB who made the playoffs) wasn’t enough to get the job done. He will do the right thing.
  7. Well...to be fair...they are waiting until the new league year starts to do those things regardless. But typically there are trades with the parameters in place (like Flacco last year)...and I could see the CBA holding that up a bit this year.
  8. Ballard runs a very tight ship...we likely won’t know what direction they are taking...until they take it. And certainly...it won’t be Holder or Keefer breaking the story.
  9. If by “mid-round QB”...you mean “middle of the 1st round”...then sure it could be JB and a mid-round QB. But they are not going to enter next season with a QB room of JB and some 3rd-4th rounder. Most of the local media guys refuse to step on any toes.
  10. SSS...but his catch rate was pretty low the first two years. Definitely improved last season though.
  11. McKinnon actually made it to FA...where he was rumored to have at least 5 teams bidding on him...so I am sure that inflated his value somewhat. And that deal has been a complete bust...so using McKinnon's contract as a negotiating tactic...probably won't have the desired effect. On the flip side...you have Tevin Coleman...who was a bit older...but coming off somewhat similar production...and he got $5M/year. Or Jordan Howard...who is not as dynamic...but has been similarly productive as Mack (and is only a year older). He's also had some injury issues and isn't much of
  12. It was a game in Mexico City. Rivers was real bad...but Mahomes wasn't great either. Just two years ago..at age 37...he was a Pro Bowler. He could be done...which is why it would be a short deal...but there's also a chance he's not...and the Colts can squeeze 1-2 seasons of top 15 QB play out of him.
  13. IF the Colts sign Rivers...JB will be gone in a trade. That is what is best for both parties...and they will not carry two QBs with $35-40M in cap space tied up. JB likely doesn't have a ton of trade value...but the trading team is only taking on $13M (which isn't a ton in the current QB market)...so he's definitely moveable...even if it requires some creativity. JB is currently a sunk cost...and whatever dead cap space is ultimately attached to him is just that. But by trading him...you would be freeing up $15-16M in cap space...which can be used to get a better stop gap. So whate
  14. I would rather have a band-aid than the current open wound. Besides, Rivers is not meant to be the ultimate solution...he is merely a stopgap and mentor for whatever rookie they draft. Reich and Sirianni came to Indy to coach a top tier QB and win. This roster is likely good enough to compete...but another season of JB offers neither top tier QB play or the real chance to win. Rivers might...and that's really all they can do at this point...until the next guy is ready to take over.
  15. If you bump up his contract next season by $4M...I think it would be reasonable to buy out 2-3 FA years for $6-7M/year. Mack's agent probably disagrees...but the Colts have all the leverage here. Paying him $10M...even with the cap increases...seems way out there IMO.
  16. And the year before the LAC had a top 3 offense...according to DVOA and won 12 games. The cliff may very well be real for Rivers...but there is also the upside of getting top 10 type production out of him.
  17. How can you make a JB impression now that isn't based on the past?
  18. Yep...he creates posts daily that discuss the QB position. Even the thread about wanting to draft a certain QB tie back to the idea of giving JB more time.
  19. Nick Bosa has games where he doesn't get sacks...they are basically the same player.
  20. Seemed like they did all offseason...but I am too lazy to track down quotes. I am not a conspiracy theorist...but I think they had an inkling significantly longer than they will ever admit.
  21. Because Ballard and Reich supported JB and talked him up.
  22. With his most recent game, JB now has a passer rating that is <90. Heading into the final game of the season....JB’s stats are almost the same as 2017. The only difference is a handful of TDs from 5 yards or in. Over bigger samples, talent level regresses to the mean. Why do we need another 16 game sample?
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