shasta519

But this is correlation, not causation. Luck played his best football in 2016 (with the torn labrum) and 2018 (post labrum surgery). His career wasn't ruined. It was actually on the rise and then he made the decision to walk away, even though he now had an OL to protect him. If we are blaming Grigson for Luck's injuries, it was actually the one shoulder injury. And I believe it happened on a play where three TEN players ganged up and threw him down and then piled up on him, which would be flagged now for UR (4Q at 7:40 mark against TEN in Week 3, 2015). But even with the protections now in place, QBs can and do get hurt. JB in 2019 is a great example. Other QBs play a lot longer and take far more hits...and don't get hurt like Luck did. It was Grigson's job to put together a good OL, but it was also the coaches job to scheme around their strengths and weaknesses, on the OL players to stay healthy and perform...and on Luck to protect himself. And even when everyone does their job, % still happens in football. And what if it was a good player like AC who missed the block that got Luck hurt? Or even a guy like Mewhort or Reitz, who were also quality OL players? How is that the GM's fault? Not trying to be clever, it was just bad luck what happened to Luck. And then it got exacerbated by a surgery rehab that took 18 months. I have said my piece on this, but none of this narrative will ever be rational to me. Just seems like Grigson gets to be the scapegoat because most of the fanbase needs someone to blame or some explanation to better understand why Andrew Luck is no longer the Colts QB anymore.

This is one of the more rational Grigson posts I have seen from a Colts fan. Much appreciated. Like you, I don't think Grigson was evil reincarnate. I think he was just a guy who had a chance to do something special and couldn't get it done. But the ride along the way was lots of fun. Grigson went for it because his boss wanted him to AND because he had a great QB on a cheap rookie deal. IIRC, he was one of the first to employ that approach and it was the correct approach, just not good execution. But if you had to turn over nearly an entire roster AND compete immediately, you would use FA too. There was no time or capital to stack drafts. I don't know why that approach has since become a punchline. Some of the players, sure, but not the approach. He is, however, responsible for unsuccessfully building the OL. That held the team back, especially in the running game. But I also don't think we should ignore that injuries did him no favors there. Colts fans all saw last year what injuries can do to the pass blocking of even a great OL. Hopefully, the OL injuries aren't a trend like they have been in the past. We should be able to agree Grigson had success here and should therefore get some of the credit. But since he's the scapegoat (for a big part of this fanbase) for losing Luck early, that will never be the case.

Well, Ballard was still a scout and Reich was a WR coach when Luck entered the league. So I think it could have just as easily gone the other way.

To your point, KC was a playoff team, but not a contender...until Mahomes was drafted. Who was the #2 in the KC FO for much of that time with Reid and Dorsey? And if you look at KC (2013-16) and IND (2017-21), there are seemingly similarities from a philosophical standpoint to roster construction to even team success: Offense Strong run game (rush DVOA) KC was #6, #5, #1, #20 IND has been #13, #8, #12, #2 Decent/middle of the pack passing game (pass DVOA) KC was #17, #15, #11, #12 IND has been #11, #25, #16, #20 QB position Addressed with veterans instead of the draft Defense Different schemes, but both defenses built around turning the ball over KC had 3 season inside the top 7 in sacks; hopefully the Colts will see those results this season Draft Focus on DL and OL picks early Focus on secondary picks somewhat early Less emphasis on WR early Team Success KC (2013-2016) 43-21 regular season record 1 division title 3 playoff appearances 1 playoff win (against HOU) IND (2018-21) 37-28 regular season record O division titles 2 playoff appearances 1 playoff win (also against HOU) Perhaps just a coincidence, but the current Colts teams very much have a similar feel to those KC teams. Lots of big names and PB nods, but not much in the way of playoff success (yet). But if I really wanted to be controversial, I would look at all of this and say that it seems like Ballard is building a less successful version of those KC Chiefs teams.

Ballard said this during the 2017 offseason: Then said this AFTER the 2017 season: There is also this idea that Q single-handedly transformed the OL. While he certainly made a big impact (not only in performance at LG, but possibly mentality as well), there was massive turnover and far more certainly on the OL in 2018. LT: AC ----> AC LG: Vujnovich ----> Q C: Bond/Kelly/Person/Fabiano ----> Kelly RG: Mewhort/Clark/Kalis/Good/Haeg ----> Glow RT: Good/Haeg ----> Smith Like Ballard said, it's about finding five guys and having them play together. And they were able to do that. Even Ballard said it's not about one guy.

I think it was also part of Luck's mentality to extend plays and not slide when scrambling. But I agree, not having a dependable WR like Reggie for open first looks definitely hurt. And the OL certainly didn't gel. Gosder Cherilus, Donald Thomas, Jack Mewhort and Hugh Thornton all seemed good moves at the time. Cherilus was a pretty good RT when he got here, Thomas was coming off a season where he put up am 81.7 PFF grade, Mewhort and Thornton were Day 2 picks. Those guys stay somewhat healthy...and it's probably at least an average OL. They all got hurt. C was the one position that they really make a big splash at, until the Kelly pick. They did try to get Alex Mack from CLE in 2014 when he had the transition tag, but he went back to CLE. In hindsight, it would have been nice to get Cordy Glenn, Mitchell Schwartz or even Osemele in that 2012 draft. That might have changed things a bit.

Pagano said this after the hit against DEN: Sounds like they had been trying to coach this out of him for a while. But Luck was fearless and played his own style. One of the reasons why he was my favorite player of all time.

Luck played in 2016. Had the surgery after that season. JB was acquired near the end of preseason 2017. And then started games 2-16. Luck had surgery in late Jan 2017. Ballard was hired shortly after. That offseason, despite Luck rehabbing a throwing shoulder surgery and Tolzien being the only viable QB on the roster, they made no moves to address QB until BB called and offered JB in PS. And if they thought Luck would be back from a shoulder surgery, they made no moves to address the OL, even though it was terrible in 2016. People can draw their own conclusions.

Very true about Hasselback. Despite being a statue, he wasn't sacked at a ridiculously high rate that year. They adjusted the offense to offset his limitations. You are right about the 2012 season. They had about 25-30% of their cap tied in up dead cap space, due to having to purge old Polian contracts and from Manning leaving. They had almost no flexibility. And they used what little they had to get back Wayne, Mathis and sign Redding. All very pivotal moves for that turnaround. If we are being fair, in Ballard's first year as GM, he did nothing to address an OL that was bottom 3-5 the year before (2016). And JB got hit a lot. The lack of moves at OL that offseason are a reason why I think they might have known very early that Luck wasn't going to play in 2017. Otherwise, it would have been similar malpractice to put Luck in front of basically the same 2016 OL. It wasn't until year 2, with a lot more draft capital, that the OL was addressed. To Ballard's credit, he added two very impactful players and it turned around overnight. I think a QB's playstyle has a big impact on them getting hurt. And then the OL is definitely a factor, but you also have a lot of noise...and especially luck (as it pertains to one QB getting hurt and another QB not getting hurt...look at JB in 2019).

Nope. I posted facts to add some objectivity to a discussion, which I do quite often. You accuse me of wiping the slate clean with Grigson, whatever that means. Seems like a strawman argument. But if what I said was so "wowza," then it should be easy enough to debate the points I made.

All excellent points. It was a flaw in Luck's game and a flaw in the coaching staff. BA is a celebrated SB-winning HC, but he didn't Luck any favors in 2012 (as far as Luck getting hit). Then he had Chud as well. And Irsay mentoring Grigson is an under-reported issue that I really wish we knew more about. The OL approach is interesting. But Grigson did attempt to address the OL in FA. They just mostly got hurt. Regarding those FA spending sprees. We know that Irsay wanted to win right away with Luck and we also had Irsay tweeting about getting on planes with briefcases full of cash for FAs. His fingerprints and impact were clearly all over those aggressive offseasons. Curious how much impact he had on the TRich deal as well. Still a terrible trade either way. And like you said, Irsay was just in a bad way at the time. It was also reported that Irsay gave more power to Pagano in the latter years, which certainly had an impact, not only on the roster, but on the FO/HC relationship as well. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Grigson was a good GM. Ballard has definitely proven to be a better talent evaluator. But it was a very different time then. And that context is valid. Fast forward to now, and Irsay's patient approach with Ballard is vastly different.

Grigson had Luck healthy for 4 years...2012-14, 2016. Luck missed 9 games in 2015. In the 7 games he played, he was mostly really bad, with an overall 74.9 passer rating, a 55% completion % and 15 TD/12 INT. It was a lost season, as far as Luck is concerned. But the 2015 Colts actually went 8-8 and played meaningful football in late December. They actually had a winning record with an old Matt Hasselback at QB (5-3). The only season that Grigson didn't win 11 games (with a healthy Luck) was 2016, in his 5th and final year. An objective way to look at the comp: In his second year as GM, with a healthy Luck at QB, Grigson went 11-5 and won a WC game against a flawed KC team. Got spanked in the Divisional round. In his second year as GM, with a healthy Luck at QB, Ballard went 10-6 and won a WC game against a flawed HOU team. Got spanked in the Divisional round. Those are very similar feats. And that was with Ballard having a lot more draft capital to rebuild the roster when he took over. If Luck had played in 2019, and Ballard had gone to the AFCCG in his 3rd season as GM (like Grigson did), that would have been a very similar feat as well. But Ballard likely would have gotten so much more hype and credit. I also don't get how Luck supposedly carried the Grigson-era teams, but not the 2018 team (which is Ballard's only playoff win to date). Ballard got the best version of Luck we have seen that season...and won 10 games. They were 1-5 until Luck started playing at an AP level. Just seems like a double standard, as does the comparison of team success with Luck. I think Ballard is the better GM, but the fanbase has become irrational about Grigson for some reason.

Let’s get one thing straight. He might not have been a good GM, Grigson did NOT ruin Luck’s career. His contribution was no larger than anybody else. And blaming it on Grigson is just irrational. Luck suffered three main injuries during his time: 1. Torn labrum on a sack against TEN in early 2015. (OL’s fault) 2. Lacerated kidney and pulled abdomen muscles. Happened during a scramble against DEN where Luck had a clean pocket but took off running (like he often did). (Not OL’s fault) 3. Sprained AC joint from a snowboarding accident after the 2015 season, when he was already hurt. (Not OL’s fault) So ONE injury occurred due to poor OL play. Everybody knows that football is physical and violent (and that Luck had a very physical play style too). Players can (and do) get hurt on any play…QBs can get hurt on ANY sack or hit, regardless of the OL. Luck’s shoulder injury happened early in only his 4th season. There are QBs who have played for far longer and absorbed many more hits and sacks over their careers, but never suffered an injury like that. Luck might have led a list of players with QB hits from 2012-2015. But the other three players were Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan and Ryan Tannehill. All still playing. Luck would be too…if he had chosen to. Hell, Ryan, at age 36, was sacked 40x and knocked-down more than any QB last season. This was his 4th-straight 40+ sack season. And we are talking about him playing until he is possibly 40. Wentz was second in QB knock-downs last year with this OL. Never got hurt, except for when he scrambled. The best example is probably JB. In 2017, he led the league in sacks and was hit a ton. Missed no games. But then in 2019, when he is playing behind an elite OL, JB gets hurt because of an OL player. The irony. So % happens. And nobody was blaming a poor OL (and Ballard by proxy) for that JB injury. If that knee injury somehow led to JB retiring, people would just call it bad luck. And that’s all it was for Luck…just bad luck. Beyond silly to blame the GM for a QB getting hurt one time and even worse to blame him for that QB retiring on his own decision.

The difference with Rivers is that he was still a very good QB. Cumulatively, across the three seasons prior to coming to Indy, here is how Rivers ranked in the NFL (age 36-38): EPA/play: .188 (#6) DVOA: #4 (2017), #3 (2018) and #15 (2019) PBer in 2017 and 2018 Now here is what Ryan has done in the past 3 seasons (age 34-36): EPA/play: .082 (#25) DVOA: #14 (2019), #15 (2020) and #21 (2021) With Rivers, the Colts were getting an older QB, but one who was putting up quasi top 5 QB numbers in 2/3 recent years, according to EPA and DVOA. And while he was top 10-12 in his one season in Indy, he didn’t quite get back to that level. With Ryan, they are getting a slightly younger QB, but one who has recently been middle of the pack QB or worse the past 3 years, according to EPA and DVOA. The idea that he is going to suddenly be a legit great QB seems like a stretch. It’s actually somewhat similar to the arguments about Wentz when you looked at his play over the past 3 seasons. But at least Wentz was in his late 20s. But I do think a couple of solid seasons is doable for Ryan. Just not sure where that leaves this team from a competitive standpoint.

I do disagree. But the Colts two moves weren’t even FAs…so why didn’t they just say offseason? I assume this is using their WAR? Otherwise, it would seem PFF is sort of contradicting their own grades and rankings here. Ryan was actually behind Wentz in their QB Total rankings last year. We can’t compare Rock and Yannick position rankings since they are different, but Rock did have a much higher grade than Yannick. Ngakoue actually had a <50 PFF grade last year.

For sure. Getting rid of Wentz early was still the right move though.

That’s a big part of the equation. And I do really like the Ryan pickup if the intention is to draft and develop a QB and let him learn behind Ryan for a year or two. So we will see about that. As for this year, unless we see a few moves prior to the draft (which we might), there are probably more pressing needs in the draft. They also gtd his $35M cap hit next year, which means they are committed to him for at least 2 years. So in that way, it is a win now move. But I also think it is setting it them up to draft one next year.

Last season, Ryan didn’t have anything to work with other than Pitts. That’s why I am looking at more than last year. The prior two seasons (2019 and 2020), Ryan definitely had receiving weapons, better than the Colts at this moment. And he put up middle of the pack numbers. I think Ryan is still a good QB. But it seems there is a narrative that he’s a huge improvement over Wentz. But Wentz also put up middle of the pack numbers (just with more volatility) prior to and while he was here. So setting aside the volatility, the recent numbers don’t suggest a massive improvement. I get stats aren’t everything, but that’s how I usually base my opinion. At this point though, I am just repeating myself. I do agree with the lack of moves. Which is why I also questioned the idea that the Colts have drastically improved so far.

Nah. I am the equivalent of the smart friend who gets it right a lot. Unless you just have dumb friends. You are apparently the friend that likes to move the goal posts and make strawman arguments. Where did I say Ryan wasn’t good? Middle of the pack QB in the NFL is typically a good QB. But it’s not a great QB or elite QB. The type that would “drastically” improve the QB position. And your original position was that Ryan is a “drastic” improvement at QB. I used actual recent and relevant data to show why I disagree. But all you heard was me being a hater who thinks Ryan is a bad QB. Think this conversation is probably over at this point.

They’ve lost some players. Reed, Fisher (unless you want Pryor to be the LT), Glow. Also lost Doyle, Pascal and maybe Hilton. I didn’t want them back, but where’s the upgrades. But who have they even added? Ngakoue is a good player. But he’s been so impactful and irreplaceable that he has been on 3 teams in the past two seasons. He should improve the pass rush, but losing Rock could hurt the pass defense. Net positive hopefully. Already exhausted two posts on Ryan. If I were you, I wouldn’t make that bet you are taking about. Been on vacation, so maybe I missed some moves. But it seems like Ballard swapped Rock for a productive vet pass rusher and Wentz for an older Matt Ryan, who hasn’t really been a better QB than Wentz the past few years…and many fans are calling this offseason a slam dunk and talking like this team is in the driver’s seat for the AFCS. That’s cool, but I just don’t see it…yet.

37 or 38…doesn’t really matter. Neither are age 33…which is the last time Ryan was actually really good QB. He’s also had really good weapons in ATL. And cherry-picked stats without any context are literally nonsense. In a season of ridiculous QB numbers in 2020, Ryan was a middle of the pack QB at best, except for the one stat you posted. And he had those yards because he threw more passes than any QB. I like Ryan, a lot more than Wentz, but he’s been a middle of the pack QB for a few years now. And that’s not a drastic on-field or on-paper improvement. Feel free to disagree, but the numbers are the numbers. And they can be very predictive, much like Father Time.

We can throw it out. But it’s still a 9-win team over the past 4 years. Good, not great. But we should then acknowledge that Ballard got a free year to add players to the roster. And a top 3 pick to use in year 2. Not nearly as wrong of a deal as people make it out to be. As for Pagano, Grigson didn’t want Pagano as HC either, especially in 2015-16. If we’re blaming a bad offseason and regular season in 2017 on Pagano, then the Grigson hate and blame should adjust accordingly. But it won’t ever do that. Just seems like a different set of standards. We will disagree, but I think this team maxes out at 10 wins with Ryan, assuming they bring in a couple of pass catchers. But that’s JMO. There’s a reason why they play the games.

Drastically better on paper? They swapped out one middle of the pack QB for another who has been middle of the pack the past few years. And while Ryan has a much better track record, he’s also 8 years older. His MVP season was a long time ago, much like Wentz’s was as well. And he is also going to be 38. Not every QB can be Brady, Rodgers or even Rivers: Ngakoue is no doubt a big improvement in production and performance over Turay, who was previously the pass rushing specialist. Just about any proven pass rusher would have been. But it did come at the cost of their CB1, who finally put together a very promising season. That’s a downgrade until we see how replacement. And starting CBs (in this defense) suddenly being less important with a better pass rush is still theoretical. For now, losing Rock offsets the pass rush improvement. I think this team can still win 9-10 games. But if there is any regression with TOs on defense or if Taylor merely plays at a level below being an MVP…I don’t see this team winning MORE games than last year, let alone being drastically better. There are several holes on this roster. And we will have to see how they get addressed.

Why the name of this thread? So we are equating any Ballard criticism to nothing more than complaining now?

But having MAC as your TE1 isn't a good thing though...that's the point. He shouldn't be a priority. I imagine Franklin being a locker room leader and team captain did play a big role. That's how this team operates. But truthfully, I can't begin to tell you how little that stuff matters to me. That's JMO...I am not criticizing it, but I also don't applaud it. It is interesting that Ballard wouldn't give Odum a long-term deal, but Franklin gets one. Something tells me that won't sit well with Odum.