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On 3/6/2024 at 7:26 AM, Defjamz26 said:
Hello all,
Now that the the Senior Bowl and Combine have come and went, it’s time to narrow down the prospects that will be fits for the Colts and have a higher chance of being drafted in April. Going in to year 8, Ballard has shown and explained his blueprint for drafting players, and it’s becoming easy to see what guys will be guys he targets. Last year everyone honed in on JuJu Brent’s as a Ballard type and sure enough, he was picked. A lot of what Ballard likes has been nicely laid out by Zach Hicks in his yearly Build-A-Ballard series. It hasn’t dropped yet this year so I’m going to lay out a couple of guys that will be good fits IMO
Im skipping TE since to me it’s Bowers or Bust, as well as QB since we have AR
Ballard’s Player Preferences Regardles of Positions are usually:
-Elite RAS score
-Senior Bowl Participants
-Good character
-Team Captains
-Produced in college
Offensive Fits:
WR:
Note: He values WRs that can block and have good size (6 ft+)
1. Rome Odunze, Washington
2. Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
3. Tez Walker, UNC
4. Xavier Legette, South Carolina
5. Ryan Flournoy, Southeast Missouri State
I think Adonai Mitchell fits the bill too... In fact... except for the Senior bowl thing, purely physically he probably fits the mold the best.
On 3/6/2024 at 7:26 AM, Defjamz26 said:RB:
1. Dylan Laube, New Hampshire
2. Michael Wiley, Arizona
3. Issac Guerendo, Louisville
IOL
1. Cooper Beebe, Kansas State
2. Mason McCormick, South Dakota State
3. Tanor Bortolini, Wisconsin
4. Zach Frazier, WVU
Bortolini's agility drill scores are insane! They are some of the best in the history of the combine. And the shuttle one has proven to be a good predictor for success in the past. I'd be good with taking him as our long-term project to replace Kelly.
On 3/6/2024 at 7:26 AM, Defjamz26 said:OT
1. Kingsley Suamataia
2. Patrick Paul, Houston
3. Frank Crum, Wyoming
4. Garret Greenfield, South Dakota State
Defensive Fits:
Edge:
1. Jared Verse, FSU
2. Marshawn Kneeland, Western Michigan
3. Eric Watts, Uconn
4. Brennan Jackson, Washington State
5. Jalyx Hun, HCU
I wrote in another thread. IMO even though at first glance Dallas Turner doesn't seem like a Ballard DE, if you look deeper into his length, speed and explosiveness scores... IMO he's one of the best fitting DEs you can find for the LEO position in Gus' scheme.
On 3/6/2024 at 7:26 AM, Defjamz26 said:DT/NT
1. Kris Jenkins, Michigan
2. Braden Fiske, FSU
3. Ruke Orhorhoro, Clemson
4. Maason Smith, LSU
5. Gabe Hall, Baylor
6. Khristian Boyd, Northern Iowa
Fiske fits athleticism-wise... but his length is kind of... low... like really low for his size.
On 3/6/2024 at 7:26 AM, Defjamz26 said:LB:
1. Edgerrin Cooperx, Texas A&M
2. Cedric Gray, UNC
3. Trevin Wallace, Kentucky
4. Curtis Jacobs, Penn State
5. Jordan Magee, Temple
CB
Note: 32” arm length is preferred
1. Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
2. Cam Hart, Notre Dame
3. Khyree Jackson, Oregon
4. TJ Tampa, Iowa Statge
Adding a few more CBs(your names are pretty good fits too):
Kool-aid McKinstry
Max Melton
On 3/6/2024 at 7:26 AM, Defjamz26 said:Safety:
1. Tyler Nubin, Minnesota
2. Kitan Oladapo, Oregon State
3. Beau Brade, Maryland
That’s all she wrote, thanks!
Good list... thanks for compiling it.
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My hot take is too hot for the forum's eyes right now. I will be mulling it over for a bit more before sharing....
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Here's an interesting thought exercise... imagine Pittman was not on the Colts and was FA on the market. How much would you be willing to pay him if we didn't have emotions invested in him?
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6 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:
He flat out said he didn’t think anyone would say no to making $22 million for a season.
Yeah, I don't remember the exact words, so I didn't want to misquote him, but he said something to that effect.
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For whatever it's worth in previous interviews MPJ seemed to be of the mind that franchise tag is not ideal, but he was viewing it as part of the process, either towards signing long-term contract or as a temporary solution for the current year. He didn't seem like he was willing to do anything extraordinary like JT did(i.e. my impression was that he would just play on the tag if it came down to it)... but then again... JT was saying similar things just months before he decided to sit out ... so who knows?
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13 minutes ago, Superman said:
If he can workout at his pro day, probably not.
Did you hear about Arnold? Seems like they are saying he had a hamstring injury at the combine and he's expected to run the 40 again at his pro-day. I usually hate those reruns at pro day after not great scores at the combine. I want it all to be standardized and for all the players to be in the same conditions when they test so those test would be more meaningful. I guess if he really was not 100% at the combine, it would be interesting to see his numbers at the Alabama pro day(March 20).
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33 minutes ago, Superman said:
I think Ngakoue is probably a good comp for him, though. Maybe more upside as a rusher, but I don't see him holding his own in the run game if he has to take on OTs on the edge.
I'll try to watch some more, and take note of the games I watch. I didn't get into a serious study of him, it just looks like he's a 3-4 edge in the NFL, and our defense doesn't make good use of that kind of hybrid. Even as a LEO, I think the run assignments are problematic. He does have speed to power, but mostly out of two point stance; I don't really view speed to power as a "move," but it's a way for him to win. Not sure it translates against most NFL OTs, but with his length, he'd have a chance.
I like Dallas Turner, a pass rush specialist. If the Colts did draft him, I'd hope they have a better plan for him than they had for Ben Banogu, for example. I just think he's at his best from a two point stance, and would be a significant liability in the run game. But I'll get back to you on that.
Who's your favorite DE so far from the ones you watched?
I think I like Latu the best. He's the most technically sound and kind of the most fun to watch. I'm not sure Ballard would spend that high of a pick for a non-elite athlete though. At least he showed he's not a bad athlete at the combine.
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Just now, w87r said:
Does Ballard seem like the type of guy that will keep a guy that doesn't want to be here?
Like I said if that's what Pittman wants to leave, discussions will be had and a trade will come together for something less than (2) 1st. Is that a (1st and 4th, 1st and 3rd, or 2nd and 3rd) idk?
He kept Taylor...
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4 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:
I don’t see a team ever offering more than market value as well as picks… If anything it would be Pittman wanting to go to the chiefs on equal or less money and the chiefs wanting him to negotiate for them. It’s a laughable scenario.
Pittman has found himself up against the Colts leverage. And it appears they have the leverage, at least in my eyes. He can threaten to sit out like JT did. And the colts can laugh as he isn’t the same player that JT is. Not with the receiver strength in this draft. That would be hard to swallow watching your team play hardball back and drafting your replacement while you sit on the sidelines.
The worst thing is that Ballard has already set the precedent that he would give in and sign a player who sits out, Sure, Taylor made the situation much uglier than what I expect Pittman to do but I actually think this is not out of the question scenario. I think it's possible Pittman sits out. Possible but unlikely, at least taking into account what he's said about the franchise tag before. But then again... Taylor had similar statements and then showed he was ready to make things VERY UGLY in order to get what he wants... so...
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5 minutes ago, w87r said:
If Pittman wants to leave, he will get offered an offer sheet, as long as he doesn't sign it, the compensation can be less than (2) 1st
Once he signs the offer sheet it is (2) 1st, which no one is going to do, and the Colts are easily going to not match.
If Pittman is adamant about wanting to play elsewhere, a trade for less than (2) 1st will be made without the offer sheet being signed.
That's the thing... what's the point of an unsigned offer sheet? Does it serve ANY purpose whatsoever? Lets say the Chiefs sign the offer sheet but Pittman doesn't sign it... he comes to the Colts and says what exactly? Look at this - a team is giving me this type of money? Give it to me or.... what? I will sign the offer sheet? What is the incentive for the Colts to negotiate with the Chiefs for ANYTHING LOWER THAN 2 1st round picks? If they have already signed that offer sheet, the Colts incentive is to actually make Pittman sign it.
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3 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:
It’s not the exclusive tag so yes there is a chance. What happens if bills or chiefs come calling and he says I want out.
You say - cool, where's your offer sheet? If he gives you an offer sheet signed by the Bills or the Chiefs you get their next 2 1st round picks...
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4 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:
Pittman has said he wanted to test the market. You can't sign a player that won't sign.
I like Pittman... I want him to stay... but honestly... if a team is stupid enough to sign him to an offer sheet, I'd take the 2 1sts... then wait for the Garrett Wilsons or Ceedee Lambs or Jalen Waddles or Devonta Smiths of the world to become available and would try to trade for them instead...
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1 minute ago, PRnum1 said:
I think that is the exclusive tag.
Non exclusive can be almost anything. I've heard of non exclusive being a 2nd and 3rd for example.
Whatever Ballard will accept.
You have them mixed up. The exclusive tag doesn't allow the player to negotiate with other teams, thus the only way he leaves is via trade, thus whatever the two teams negotiate for...
The non-exclusive one is set at 2 first round picks if he signs with another team and the Colts don't match.
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- Popular Post
1 minute ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:Pittman is the best WR on the market. This is a huge mistake by the colts.
Letting your best WR walk is a huge mistake.
The non-exclusive tag means the Colts get 2 1st round picks if he signs with another team and the Colts don't match. I think I'd be good with that outcome.
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I think that's the first time the Colts have used the franchise tag since Pat McAfee in 2013?
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45 minutes ago, Superman said:
I watched some of Turner, he was almost always in a two point stance, and has little to no pass rush moves. It's just speed and some bend to beat blockers, but once they engage with him, he's mostly losing the rep. And he's not very good against the run.
I don't mind having a hybrid pass rusher with freakish traits, but I don't think he fits what the Colts want at DE as a player. Ngakoue was a productive pass rusher, and they let him walk after one year. Ebukam is better against the run.
I think there is a big gap between Ngakoue who was the worst DE defending the run in the NFL for a few years in a row and what the Colts would find acceptable. I was one of the biggest proponents of not re-signing Ngakoue precisely because I thought he was unplayable against the run. I don't see the same with Turner. Is he great against the run? No. But IMO he can be playable against the run... and potentially exceptional as a rusher. What games did you see of him? I haven't seen a lot. I saw the Ole Miss one and one of the Georgia games... I thought he looked good and even showed some speed to power moves which surprised me since I knew he was a slight DE(btw I agree with you on the lack of technical refinement). I will need to watch more of him, but I'm telling you the profile screams Ballard type to me - exceptional length, exceptional explosiveness and speed... kind of similar to how Richardson's profile screamed Ballard to me last year.
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25 minutes ago, Superman said:
Oh, that could be a blind spot at DE, especially if they're including 3-4 DEs.
True, I didn't even consider the possible inclusion of 3-4DEs... or 3-4 OLBs? I don't know how they designate them. I can see them actually putting a 3-4DE as an interior player while the 3-4OLBs would be designated as DEs...
I don't know... For example, here's Dallas Turner and he's designated as a DE:
BTW... look at that arm length for Dallas Turner. IMO it's not out of the question that Ballard might see him as a RDE(What Gus Bradley and the traditional Seahawks type scheme calls LEO). Think Kemoko Turay type... Think Ngakoue... We have Ebukam playing that role now, but if Ballard wants a more dominant player Turner actually looks to me like reasonable approximation to that type of player that you can line up wiiiiiide wide out in 2 point stance... and just let him go berserk 1-on-1 vs OT.
In fact... looking at his testing... the more I think about it the more I feel like he's a prime candidate for us to take at 15(if he's there), even though he doesn't look like the prototypical Ballard DE. IMO that's mainly because those LEO types are not very common and we have so far addressed that position mainly via FA(Ebukam, Ngakoue)... and before that Ballard actually used a second round picks on Turay and Banogu, both of whom were supposed to be that type of player... and both of them were players at about the same size as Turner. 6'3 250 for Banogu, 6'4" 253 for Turay... and both of them had length... (33.5+" arms)...
IMO if Bowers is gone... Turner is more likely pick than any of the CBs at 15...
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2 minutes ago, Superman said:
I thought Arnold would be 4.45-4.5, so pretty close. I think he's really instinctual and positions himself well, and he can contest at the high point. I really like him, but never thought he fit Ballard's profile. I really like Mitchell also, he seems longer to me...
There are a lot of later round guys with longer arms, but it looks like a lot of them project as safeties in the NFL.
I really don't know how much attention to pay to those shorter corners. Like if we had any significant exception to that 32" rule I'd be more willing to consider them, but especially early in the draft or when spending resources in FA... Ballard really seems to be pretty strict with that 32" threshold. I've done that exercise before... but pretty much the only exceptions for those 7 years are Nate Hairston (31" and 5th round) and Jaylon Jones(30 3/4", 7th round pick). On the other hand the list of 32+ is endless...
2018
Kenny Moore - 32 5/8"
Quincy Wilson - 32 1/4"
Pierre Desir - 33"
Nate Hairston - 31"
2019
Rock Ya-Sin 32"
Marvell Tell - 33 1/8"
2020
Xavier Rhodes 33 3/4"
Isaiah Rodgers 32 7/8"
2021
TJ Carrie - 31 7/8"
2022
Dallis Flowers 32"
Brandon Facyson 32 5/8"
Stephon Gilmore 31" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I guess this is the real exception. Yep... Ballard made an exception for an DPOY, 5 time pro bowler and 2 time first team all pro...
2023
Julius Brents 34" (!!!!! FREAKY)
Darius Rush 33 3/8"
Jaylon Jones 30 3/4"
Darrell Baker 32"
Pretty much the only exceptions are late round picks(5th Hairston, 7th Jones) and Gilmore... I honestly don't think Ballard would take Mitchell in the 1st with 31" arms... maybe I'm wrong...
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1 hour ago, Superman said:
I looked them up, did I have them backward?
Edit: I guess I got mixed up on Mitchell. I thought he had 33" arms.
31" for Mitchell... 31 5/8" for Arnold. What do you make of Arnold's lack of elite speed? He doesn't look super fast on tape but I still thought he would be able to go in the 4.4s
It's interesting that from all the CBs projected as 1st rounders only Kool-Aid McKinstry measured at 32" or above. Ennis Rakestraw measured at 32" too but I personally don't see him as a 1st rounder.
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17 hours ago, Superman said:
I think Arnold is really good, but I don't think he meets the Colts physical baselines. If we're talking first round, I think Mitchell would be the most obvious target.
Edit: We'll see what Kool-Aid's medical looks like, but I felt like he was the Ballard prototype at corner.
If I told you Arnold measured longer than Mitchell would that surprise you?
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Just now, NFLfan said:
Time for you to choose. What about the Bears?
Bears sounds good, thanks
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I will take one of the teams too...
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Something to remember - the raise in cap space was even higher than anticipated. Teams will have more money than previously projected and thus it's possible some of the new contracts are going to look a bit elevated...
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Colts Best 2024 Draft Prospect Fits
in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk
Posted
Yep. Cooper IMO is the best approximation of what Ballard likes in his LBs. Besides the athletic and physical profile - he fills the stat sheet exactly like Ballard likes from his LBs - tackles, TFLs, PDs, forced fumbles, sacks... he does it all.. Leonard, Okereke, Speed... they all had this in common too.
I don't know where Cooper ends up being drafted, but IMO there is a legit chance the Colts will be one of the teams interested.