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Indianapolis Colts


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Everything posted by stitches

  1. Dalton or Brissett? Who do you take?
  2. The biggest knock on Luck was not that he was locking on Hilton, he was making bad receivers look good from the very start and he's been having one of the most expansive receiving trees from the very start(he was throwing a lot to a lot of receivers not to just few he trusted). The biggest knock on Luck was that he was holding the ball too long. But the reason he was doing it was very different to the reason some other QBs do it(Mariota, Watson, to a lesser extent Brissett etc). Luck was given the responsibility from the very start to do full field progression reads in an Air Coryell system that relied on him to hold the ball and take deep shots. He was holding the ball in order to let all his progressions develop and make throws downfield(and sometimes he indeed pushed his Luck way too much and didn't know when to give up). The Mariotas of the world hold the ball because they have trouble isolating(what's there) and eliminating(what's not there)...
  3. Mediocre is a weird word and means different things to different people. I have to admit I've used it for Brissett, but I realize it caries much harsher connotation than what I mean by it. I think he's been about average so far this season, but a lot of it has to do with the way he's performing in the red zone. I don't expect this to continue so I kind of expect him to be slightly 'below average'... this might mean he's still in the 16-20 range, but those are largely meaningless designations. At any time in the league you might have 5 or 25 QBs that might be able to get you to the promised land(i.e. have good enough accuracy/playmaking ability to elevate the team in the playoffs). When I say mediocre I distinctly don't mean bad. I think the best description for what I mean by it is "OK, but not good enough" for a good shot at a long playoff run.
  4. Brissett got about 100% of QB1 snaps in training camp and pre-season. Unlike Luck did last year. Again... this is NOT about the stats. Watch him play and watch the type of throws he makes and the types of throws he doesn't make and the reason for it. We can actually see those things on the tape. We can see him locking into his first read while huge TD throws on the other side of the field are available, we can see him missing anticipation throws that he needs to make, etc. We can actually have a pretty good idea of whether the type of performance he's putting in now is because he was thrusted into the starting lineup 2 weeks before the season started(even though for all intents and purposes he was QB1 for the Colts since March), or because of the way he sees the field or because of things he's got to improve on going forward.
  5. I hate those simplistics stats over small samples. They miss a ton of context. There was a reason... or two Luck was dinking and dunking the first 4-5 weeks of the season and those reasons are not available as an excuse to Brissett. Luck was returning from injury and IMO was having trouble with the velocity of his balls in the intermediate to long range until he worked his arm into shape later in the season + Reich was trying to protect him because our OLine at the time was very far from its shape both personnel and strength-wise from what it is supposed to be right now(and by the end of Luck's season last year). Longer throws are available for Brissett right now, and he has the protection he needs, he just doesn't see or aniticipate a lot of them right now.
  6. I have watched a couple of games of him so far and I even clipped some videos of some of his special throws... You can see them in the thread. You can definitely see what NFL people see in him when they say Mahomes like with his arm and playmaking, but it's worth pointing out just how much Mahomes has improved with his decision-making and ability to make adjustments since he entered the league. Love has some troubles with his reads too, but his special traits are evident too. He's far from perfect prospect and will need work, but if you trust his character and Reich's ability to mold him into high level passer, there is plenty of special traits and physical attributes for a good coach to develop.
  7. He did the same thing in one of the plays I posted about last week... He locked into his primary read and missed a potential TD pass on the other half of the field.
  8. Yep, Chiefs gave up a 3d and a future 1st to move up and get Mahomes, Texans gave up just a future 1st to go get their guy, the Jets gave up 3 seconds to move up for their guy, etc. We probably won't be able to move up to top 3, but if the guy we like drops to like... 6-7-8 IMO we will be able to move up without sacrificing our whole future(i.e. we might have to give up a future 1st). I love Herbert's talent and I think there is a tentalizing potential in Love. I just posted in Dane Bruglers' early QB ranking in his top 60 for the draft: NFL people are calling Love's playmaking ability and potential “Mahomes-like”. There are other QBs that are intriguing too...
  9. Dane Brugler published his top 60 ranking so far. Since it's a paid site I won't be copy-pasting the whole thing, but here are the QBs in his top 60(7 QBs!!!): https://theathletic.com/1251341/2019/09/30/dane-bruglers-top-60-draft-board-seven-quarterbacks-crack-updated-list/
  10. IMO yes. It's going to be a great WR class. I liked last year's class, but this one has some real talent at the very top too, not just depth-wise.
  11. Oh I appreciate it. I just posted something above about it - this is the best thing going for Brissett right now. He's been exceptional in his red zone throws which is why his TDs are really high(+for some reason it seems like Reich is calling the game conservatively 20-to-20 but then throws a lot in the red zone, which is quirky, but I'm not sure it will continue with larger sample. Overall Brissett takes care of the ball and and is currently the QB with the lowest INT% along with Aaron Rodgers over the last 20 or so years. This is not new, he was like that in 2017 too. And any time you have low INT% you will have not bad TD/INT ratio. Right now his is off the charts because of a really high TD%. The problem with it is that this type of TD% is not sustainable with the way he's playing the game. TD% is highly correlated with big time throw% and Brissett's number of big time throws is very low(last stat I saw he was 29th out of 34 qualified QBs). This all points to this not being sustainable and it being a serious contender for a regression to the mean the more the sample grows... This is why I said 'meaningless' but probably 'meaningless' was not the right word for it. I qualified it 'for small samples' which makes it better, but yeah... this is what I meant - TD/INT is not meaningless, but when the sample is small and other indicators point to it not being sustainable, I don't put too much weight on it.
  12. Mayfield has been acting erratic off-field and he seems like he lets criticism get to him way too much. I can understand people not trusting him with his attitude and personality and how he caries himself, but if you can guarantee me that he won't self destruct, I think he can be a very good QB for a long time in the league. His talent is real.
  13. The 10/2 ratio for Brissett is the best thing going for him right now. He's been exceptional in the red zone. There really isn't much more you can ask from him there. The 65% completion is good too, but it comes with an asterisk - namely he's one of the QBs with lowest depth of target in the league and one of the QBs with lowest % of big-time throws. It's easier to complete high % of passes when you dink and dunk all the time. Brissett will never have a bad TD/INT ratio simply because he will always limit INT. He's the QB with the lowest INT% in the league in the last 20 years or something... His high TD% right now is a new thing for him, but the type of throws he makes doesn't suggest that it's sustainable. Usually high TD% is tied very tightly to big-time throws and Brissett is currently very low on those. So the expectation is that this will regress with time, unless he significantly increases his big-time throws(which he's never done - even in the Air Coryell offense he still had low big time throws%)... I guess, we will see how this one goes by the end of the season.
  14. BTW, (just to be clear) I think Mayfield has not had a good season so far... I just believe he will be much better in the long-run than Brissett...
  15. Only if you care about the most shallow and meaningless of numbers... AND on extremely small samples.
  16. Not really, I have posts much before the season started that we shouldn't expect our next QB to be Luck/Manning level and that this is not a realistic goal to set. You can search back if you feel like it. I guess there is no way for me convince you Brissett can change my mind so... I guess we'll see in due time.
  17. OH FFS! Stop with this nonsense. Completion % on small samples doesn't tell you much about accuracy. He was the most accurate QB in college over huge samples and on high difficulty throws. He completed 64% of his passes in his rookie year. Brissett will be lucky to ever have as good of a season as Mayfield did in his rookie year. And Mayfield didn't have this OLine and Frank Reich. If Mayfield fails it will be because of his attitude and his personality, not because of talent or skill.
  18. I'd have to check with all my intelligence contacts on what's wrong with him and whether he's beaten his girlfriend or killed someone last night for that offer to even be on the table.
  19. I don't care about the stats on small samples. Baker is good. Stop looking at weird small samples of games where he's playing with 4th string OLinemen on already horrible OLine and a questionable playcaller. Watch his play, the reads and throws he makes, his accuracy. Sure, he's having a bad start of this season, but I don't expect this to continue. His skill as a passer is on much higher level than Brissett's.
  20. Seriously? Why? Why the hell would you take Brissett over Mayfield? I guess... his personality might be one thing and I can understand it if you just don't trust him with the way he caries himself, but purely as a play on the field why? Mayfield with this OLine would be amazing! I would trade Brissett for Mayfield tomorrow if I could.
  21. No. I want Brissett to get every chance in the world to show what he can do. By the end of the season I want us to know for sure one way or the other whether he's the long-term solution at QB.
  22. Oh FFS... again. I said it in another reply you can read my thoughts further if you want in my other posts in here. I want to evaluate Brissett independent of what's around him. You can still evaluate how he reads the field, how accurately he throws, what throws he makes and what throws he misses, how he moves in the pocket, what's his command of the game, how well he does in the red zone, etc. even with all his receivers dropping balls or his OLine missing blocks. Luck and most other elite QBs have played much worse games than what Brissett did yesterday, but that's not the question. We need to evaluate Brissett honestly over this season so we'd know what we can expect going forward... when hopefully his receivers don't drop balls and his run game is working well and the defense plays well... because you can win a random September home game against a bad team with just one of those being present but you need most or all of them + great QB play to have a chance to win in the playoffs against the best of the best.
  23. I'm OK with him getting the full season. In fact I demand he gets the full season. I'm not advocating for Chad Kelly or anything else. I want him to get the full season, I want Reich to challenge him and I want to see what he can do. He can still win me over. If you asked last year at the same time I might have said that Luck's arm was shot and h did enough by the end of the year to convince me he's back. I'm by no means sold one way or another on Brissett although so far he's meeting my expectations almost perfectly.
  24. What kind of a horrific argument is that? Are you seriously putting forward the argument that you would rather have Brissett than Manning and Luck because they only gave you 1 SB?
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