stitches

My thought process is as follows - first, Raiders, Vikings, Broncos... all teams that need QB, all teams starting with better bidding position than us(higher picks than us) ... some of them will probably be bidding for 4 and teams bidding for a QB in general have more of an incentive to give better offers than a team (like us) not bidding for a QB(let alone a team with Ballard as the GM). So... I would probably give a fair offer, but I wouldn't participate in a bidding war against teams bidding for their QB of the future. Now... you always risk that Arizona just decides to not trade that pick and get MHJ instead and I'm good taking that risk... The really nice thing, if some of the teams mentioned above manages to trade up for McCarthy or whoever the 4th QB is, is that this drastically dampens the trade market for the following pick(since there wouldn't be a QB worthy of trading up for at that point.... presumably). Now sure... there probably will be interest from other teams to trade up for their choice of a WR, but I think the price will definitely be lower than the price for trading up to 4 when you are bidding against QB hungry teams. And again... you always risk the Chargers to just ... pick MHJ for themselves, but you just have to live with that IMO. I'm just trying to cobble up a realistic case where we end up with MHJ. Since we have Ballard as GM, IMO none of those are REALLY realistic, but IMO they are much more realistic than Ballard trying to outbid 3 teams bidding for a QB.

For MHJ - I think people are filling in what's missing with doubt when the rest of the class tested and tested well for the most part. No idea if this will bite him in the *(when it comes to draft position), but IMO his physical and athletic traits are great. If I had to guess he's a 4.4 athlete or thereabout and this is probably the least important thing of his profile as a receiver, but when combined with the rest of his technical refinement and ability to make incredibly tough catches, it makes him one of the best WR prospects I've seen. I'd take him no. 1 in most drafts if I didn't need a QB.

If we are trading up for Harrison ... IMO you let the Vikings trade up for their QB at 4 and then try for 5... The Chargers with Harbaugh IMO are looking to do a massive rebuild of their offense and Harbaugh has already stated just how much he values the OL, so... there is a chance they can be persuaded by a good offer(probably lesser than that one above, but still).

Ballard's type of gamble is trading up from 44 to 41 for Jonathan Taylor. For measely 5th rounder. Him giving up a day 2 pick... let alone an additional 1st rounder for a single player just seems all wrong and against his nature. I agree with you that there are certain chances he has to go for and go against math with, but... it just doesn't seem like this is one of those cases. I wonder if Nabers is there at 9 and the price is a 3d... would he do it?

My guesses based on this presser: - Ballard will NOT draft a CB in the 1st... maybe at all? Everything he's saying seems to suggest he likes the group we have and he wants to see them play and have a chance to develop. I'm almost certain if Mitchell for example is there at 15... we pass on him... either for trade back or for an offensive weapon... or DE? - Ballard WILL trade back. If not in the 1st... then later in the draft... but most probably in the 1st. IMO he pretty much advertised to his potential customers by telling them how many 1st round grades he has. Teams 19-21 are welcome to call and will receive warm greetings from Ballard. Rams, Steelers, Dolphins? - He seemed to be talking about a specific someone one dimensional offensive weapon when he was talking about them just having had a meeting about a certain player... about whether them and the coaching staff see the way he can be used the same way... and if they agree on this, IMO this is a potential target for the Colts. The names that come to mind - Brian Thomas Jr and Xavier Worthy... A lot of the other WRs are more well rounded... - The Colts LOVE the OL class both at the top and in depth. I have seen some OL experts suggest there might be 10 starting centers in this draft... and the OTs class in the 1st is like nothing I've ever seen. Can we draft an OL in the 1st? Doubt it... but absolutely expect a few shots on day 2 and 3.

No idea why you can't PM me. I did pm u a week or two ago. No idea if u received it.

He's exactly the type Ballard likes - very similar testing profile to Brents last year. Possibly not the greatest straight line speed, but he's big and has great explosiveness scores.

Props to @w87r for guessing right that Ballard might push some money forward in time. I still find it interesting that he did that. Makes little sense unless something's in the works. Maybe smaller backload would have been understandable to give us a bit more wiggle room for in-season moves, but this looks suspiciously large backload of that contract.

So... It sounds like the first 8 are offense and then... They are relatively evenly spread between offense and defense. Interesting...

I think we trade back unless a specific player or two are there for us to take at 15.

I disagree that he's an awful route runner. In fact... I think I posted a graph the other day with the separation and he's the WRs that creates most separation on his routes in this draft class... IMO the bigger problems with him are his inability to beat press-man when they manage to get their hands on him(it's why you will have to create some free releases for him(again... the motion will be needed, play him at Z and slot rather than X, etc). And his second problem is... contested catches... but that's kind of expected when you consider his size... he won't be contested catch receiver, he will need to be a receiver who wins on the field.

Good point about usually re-signing/extending them before they hit FA and Ballard wanting to wait and see how things go this year after the bad 2022...

What a steal...

Bears draft is done. What do you guys think about it? 1. Caleb Williams, QB, USC 9. Laiatu Latu UCLA EDGE 75. Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan 122. Jalen McMillan, WR, Washington

I think he was there at Texas and LSU pro days. Steichen and JBC were there at the Texas one too...

Either way, at this point the important thing is the extension is done, the details are largely for bookkeeping purposes. I don't really expect us to go after any of the big names either in FA or in trade at this point.

Yeah, that is somewhat notable, but it's probably largely coincidental and product of who was up for new contract this year and the state of the roster and payroll. I guess we will see in future year if there really is any change in approach... either way huge majority of those deals are for non-key players.

Because Ballard doesn't seem to like pushing money into the future, unless it's absolutely required... which at this moment doesn't seem to be the case.

MHJ: Do you hear me Mr. Irsay? Chris? Anybody here in Indy? Please save me from having to play for the Cardinals... or oh damn... god forbid... the... ewwwwwwwww... Patriots.. If Ballard somehow manages to do this... I swear I will stop moaning about him neglecting the receiving weapons for at least... 2 years...

Nice. Looks like a reasonable deal. Interesting to see how they structured it and whether they freed any money for this year?(I doubt it)

I think if you look at it a bit deeper it doesn't say that much and it's not that big of a departure. A ton of the signings in previous years come after the draft(i.e. he can still do it this year) and a lot of them are very cheap - very low average salary. So... what does that mean? IMO it means Ballard is waiting to see what he can do with the draft and then he will likely go out and fill the holes with cheap vets that in a lot of cases we don't even remember the next year. Example... Genard Avery, Chris Lammons, Kenyan Drake, Jake Martin, Amari Rodgers, Isaac Taylor-Stuart, Jalen Tabor, Breshad Perriman, AQM(back from Bears)... those were all signed last summer after the draft.

Two more Reception Perception charts: