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stitches

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Posts posted by stitches

  1. 2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

    Some agents are refusing to negotiate until the 2021 cap is set. Several agents have said they we're going to see superstar contracts, and rook contracts.... and the middle guys are all going to suffer.

     

    But I do agree with your sentiment. I wouldn't say "big" for this market though. I'd shop for some guys that are just below elite level, and try to lock them up on long term deals. Perhaps some guys that suffered due to the talent around them, but could be elite here. 

    Yeah, doesn't need to be elite... just... contracts that you think would be great value in the following years once the cap jumps again. We can actually afford it now and very likely won't be able to afford it for much longer. 

    • Like 1
  2. 24 minutes ago, wig said:

     

    The cap also goes up $40m next year. If Wentz works out, that's four years at a very reasonable salary. There's plenty of money. 

    I've been thinking... maybe now is the time to strike big and get multiple high level talents in a depressed market where very few teams can actually afford to give out big contracts... Give them big contracts for this market, but would be very reasonable in the future few years...

    • Like 2
  3. 31 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

    Stitches....    to your very good point about how to know which performances are real-ish and which are not?  


    I read a good story earlier this month, I think from Sports Illustrated, basically saying the scouting community is freaking out trying to figure out that exact question. 
     

    The loss of the combine eliminates the apples to apples comparison that everyone had.   Plus the loss of face to face meetings...   plus the same set of doctors examining all the players.   All gone.  Medical exams will be done by local doctors.   Personnel people don’t know what to do?   Or didn’t as of early Feb.

     

    Yeah, it will be a weird off-season for NFL FOs and scouts... I don't think they've ever been this hindered from doing their jobs. 

    Quote

    I think this increases the chances of scouting error for all teams.   Perhaps dramatically?

     

    I think we could see more Day 1 and Day 2 misses than ever before.   But that’s just my guess...

    I think it won't be very dramatic for the league as a whole, but it might separate the good from the bad FOs. The cases where a prospect drops a ton because of a medical or character red flag are not a ton and the most serious ones are usually known in advance. The surprising ones that pop up at the combine for the first time are very rare. Meaning... for the huge majority of premier talent - they would be drafted in the general range of where they would have been drafted in another year too. Maybe it won't be by the same team, but IMO it will be in the same general range. The biggest misses IMO will be medical misses if there are any. Teams still have a ton of tape to watch and evaluate the players on. 

     

    Can you imagine if teams actually do better this year? What would that mean? Maybe teams focusing on the tape, rather than falling in love with a player's personality or athletic numbers would actually give better results for some? 

     

    I think I actually read some study that suggested that players that fall due to off-field concerns usually overperform their draft slot, while players that fall due to on-field issues - underperform. Trying to find it now, but can't seem to... I posted it here a while back too... 

     

    Anyways... it will be an interesting off-season for sure - depressed FA market, limited info on draft prospects, etc... I guess it's even more of an opportunity for the GMs that run better operation to shine and actually organized their resources and get the best info they can. 

  4. 8 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

    IMHO, they have a player or 2 that they think may fall to 21

     

    My hope is (and maybe the Colts) Darrisaw is there parked at 21,  if not then Paye DE from Michigan  

     

    Both are day 1 starters and may just be BPA (or close) at 21

     

    My belief is that both will be gone by 21.  I just dont see Ballard using that pick to trade up. 

    (Maybe I will be wrong)

     

    If the player in mind is gone, (whether its my pick or not) I see a trade happening

     

    A trade to an early 2nd round (or later 1st) pick may still yield a starting OT

     

    The more I watch players in this draft the more I like the players in that range. Darrisaw, Paye, Rousseau, Bateman. Jaycee Horn is my new favorite and I would absolutely take him at 21 if he's there. I think he will be a steal there. 

     

    I'm always up for a trade down too... I think we are in a good position overall. 

    • Like 1
  5. 2 hours ago, w87r said:

    Godwin has had 1 above average to good season in 4 years. In a year where his yardage was inflated and even Jameis Winston threw for 5000yds in Arians deep attack offense. Everything else has been very middle of the pack.

     

    Thanks for helping prove my point on his drops in the biggest moments though. I didn't even go there, so thanks. He does have usually reliable hands though, I will give you that.

     

    And YOU were the one that brought it here, with your "opinions" and statements after the fact, more on that later.

     

    All I brought here was a guess about how PFF values Godwin vs Leonard and Q in an attempt to answer a question about why Tampa bay was ranked so high in those graphs. Everything after that has been people trying to pin PFFs evaluation on my opinion and me repeatedly saying - this is not my opinion, this is how PFF likely values them. 

     

    Quote

    So PFF said Godwin is "probably" more valuable than Q/DL combined? Or was that you?

    That's PFF ...likely... again... not sure because I don't have their numbers, but knowing what they value and knowing that they themselves said Q is about as valuable as Calvin Ridley in their system, my guess would be that by their numbers Q and Leonard together are about as valuable or less valuable than Godwin.. I clearly said that just a few posts after my initial post and said it multiple times here  and here and here and here  and here , etc... pretty much in every single comment in this thread I made it clear that this is likely how PFF values them, not how I value them. In one of those I clearly stated this: 

     

    Quote

    If you asked me whether I would trade DL+Q for Godwin my answer would be HELL NO. Now if you ask if I would trade one of them for Godwin... that might be worth a discussion. 

    and this:

     

    Quote

    Godwin actually might be a good threshold for me. I think I'm on the fence with him. I think I'd take him over Leonard but probably not over Q... Not sure. Have to think about it more.

     

    Quote

    So PFF said that we should consider trading Q/ or DL for Godwin? Or was that you?

    That was me, but it's clearly in the context of the argument about their value. It's pretty common way to illustrate how one values an asset/player - would you trade X for Y? And this should be especially obvious since DL and Q are not FAs and Godwin is. And again, I want to point out that this whole thing was me trying to defend myself from people attributing things to me that I never said or meant and I believe I did plenty enough to make it clear that this was PFF's value not mine, like I linked above in about half a dozen cases in this thread. Yet here we are... 

     

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    I'm arguing in bad faith? Or is that you? I have delivered nothing but facts here and the only disputed issues are your opinions, that you are trying to push back on PFF now, as theirs and just your interpretation of them.

    No, you repeatedly have misrepresented my opinion in this thread, even after being corrected again and again and again(counted to about half a dozen times on the first page alone me saying, this is how PFF likely values them).  So how about this... post again what you think my opinion is and what your objections are. Hint... I quoted my summarized opinion above. 

     

    Quote

    Then lets back it up a little bit. I already agreed to disagree, tried to bring the conversation back to the graphs, then YOU made 2 more post with statements of the following:

     

    1. Godwin is really good, some people want to act like he is a scrub.

     

    No one said that at all. Another opinion of yours that was off based.

    I will take the fault here and apologize. You didn't say he's a scrub. You said he has only one season above average. Shouldn't have said scrub... should have said "people here act like he's an average receiver", which he's not and it will become very obvious how NFL teams value him in about 2-3 weeks when FA starts. 

     

    Quote

     

    2. Colts fans are blinded by our own guys and players on TBs super bowl winning team don't compare. (This was the see later part). "Nothing new here"

    I stand by this. People usually overvalue their own players and undervalue other teams' players. Nothing new here indeed. I think this thread is a good representation of this too. Just my opinion. 

    Quote

    Haeg almost had a TD catch in the SB, if Miller would of even had 1 catch, then he would of had just as much impact on the Super Bowl as Godwin(who essentially had none). So again you were the one to say stars on TB "super bowl winning team", as if it had any relevance. 

    The problem is the SB is one game. In order to get there you need to go through a season and 3 playoff games. Godwin was pretty valuable to Tampa bay in their SB winning season, even if he dropped like... 4 passes in the SB itself. 

    Quote

     

    I wouldn't mind bringing in Godwin as a FA, no where near what he probably expects to get though, or breaking the bank you talked about.

    Sure... I don't mind that... agree to disagree. I don't have a problem with you not liking Godwin as much as me or anyone else. 

    Quote

    You mean those premium pass catching weapons that TB defense shut down? They were the real "stars" of the Super Bowl. TB defense was great this season.

     

    I guess Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Tyreke Hill were more valuable than Brady, Barrett, Pierre Paul, Suh, White, David, Davis, Donovan Smith, Wirfs, Marpet, Cappa and even Mahomes or Chris Jones

    No, nobody is saying those players are not valuable or that there is no value to having good LBs or DL or OL... But again... you are talking about a single game with incredibly hobbled KC OL that gave up 55% pressure rate and where Mahomes was pressured in less than 2.5 seconds in about half his snaps. 

     

    Quote

    And lets also not forget the fact that KCs LT was out.

     

    So there is a list of my most important positions.

    QB - Brady, Mahomes

    LT - Smith, lack of Fisher

    DE/OLB - Barrett, Paul

    DT/DE - Suh, Jones(arguably 2nd most important player on Chiefs)

    CB - Davis

    G - Marpet, Cappa(helping keep Brady clean)

     

    Even threw a couple of those invaluable LBers in there as well. Just for fun. They weren't very valuable though I guess? In actuality they might of been the most valuable pieces in the game.

    IMO the biggest mismatch in this game was KC OL vs Tampa bay DL and a ton of it had to do with KC OL just being super short handed and being destroyed by Tampa bay's DL. This IMO was what decided that game more than anything else. But again.. .we are talking about a single game with a very very weird mismatch that's not likely to happen very often in a SB, simply because in order to get there teams should have some base level of OL play... It just happened that an already hobbled KC OL lost even more pieces between the previous game and the SB. 

    Quote

    More bad faith arguments by YOU. Just saying, just cause a team has a premium pass cather doesn't make that guy the most valuable or the reason that team made the Super Bowl.

    Agree with this. Never said otherwise. But I do think premier passcatchers and playmakers are very valuable.

     

    Quote

    Hopefully we can get back to the graphs, once again, but I suspect you will feel the need to continually tell me why WRs are still more valuable.

    OK, what do you want to discuss about the graphs? 

  6. 1 hour ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

    Interesting read @stitches:thanks:

     

    I like how they said the Nelson pick was as good as it gets, but because of positional value, the ceiling for a generational guard is only the 93rd percentile.  Then later on, point out that it's really all just manipulation of numbers, and that it could be great coaching/scheme/veteran leadership that is taking average picks from a GM and making them look like great picks when the system works.  Like those things are just afterthoughts when considering the success of a TEAM sport...  haha

     

    The most interesting thing was that Loomis has been the Saints GM for so long.  He's had a pretty good run of drafting the last 14 years.  Almost like he's getting better the more experience he gets...  :thinking:  If Ballard spends the next decade drafting for the Colts like he has the last 4 years, and his locker room has top-notch coaching, scheme, and leadership...

     

    source.gif

    In reality they are probably right to point out that most GMs in the league don't have long enough track record to be free of small sample bias one way or the other. It's very likely if you gave every GM 100 drafts, their draft success will tend to converge toward the average. BTW, I wonder where Grigson would be on those graphs. I would guess pretty high thanks to drafting Luck and TY Hilton(similar to HOU in this graph thanks to Deshaun Watson). Just another reminder that even though those graphs might be useful in some cases you have to keep in mind their limitations and biases.

    • Like 1
  7. 4 hours ago, w87r said:

    Get off it already.

     

    Godwin had 2 rec 9yds in the Super Bowl. Averaged 4rec under 60yds a game in his 4 playoff games, with a catch percentage the same as Marcus Johnson had for the Colts this year.

     

    He was one of the last reasons why TB won the Super Bowl. 

     

    Maybe we should trade Q for Joe Haeg since he was on the super bowl winning team. Scotty Miller perhaps, since its a WR value discussion.(little dramatic I know, but look where you've taken this subject)

    Yeah, if Miller or Haeg had the WHOLE resume and the talent of Godwin maybe we should. Worth pointing out that this was probably the worst stretch of Godwin's career (and it was mainly thanks to drops). I think he had like 7 drops in the playoffs while never having more than 2 in a whole season previously. I would personally consider that a freaky happenstance, and trust the much bigger sample of him being a very reliable catcher of the football. Also, it's not me that's taken it here. YOU just did.

    Quote

     

    Acting like this is all cliche thoughts of a homer fan and his teams players. Has nothing to do with that. It has always been about your take on Godwin "probably"  having more value then both Q/DL combined, and claiming it would have to be taken in consideration to trade 1 of them for him.

     

    I've already pointed out several times that this is NOT my 'take', but rather a guess on part of the explanation on the Bucs place in those graphs. So why do you keep going with this? At this point I am considering this bad faith exchange on your part. On the second part - yes, it would have to be taken in consideration(if they were up for trade and tied in similar contracts, rather than Godwin being a FA). BTW Godwin is one of the players we should consider breaking Ballard's bank on this FA. Insert Whynothaveboth.gif

    Quote

    I don't even think this is arguable, imo. Evans is most definitely better than Godwin.

    Agree with this. Evans is both better and more valuable than Godwin. Worth pointing out that both Superbowl teams had premier pass catching weapons as it relates to our discussion on the value of the position.

     

  8. 12 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

    The problem with this post is, you named the best players at their positions to prove your point. Of course I would trade Q for Mahomes lol or maybe the best WR in the league. You posted earlier it could be a discussion to trade Q or Leonard for Godwin. No way nobody would do that. 

    So how far down would you go before you take Q? This is really the question here. So you would take the best WR over Q. What about the 3d best WR? 5th best? 10th? This is really what we are talking about. Where is your cutoff? For PFF the cutoff is somewhere around Calvin Ridley. I'm not even agreeing with them. I personally would take Q over him easy, but... I would definitely take multiple receivers over him. Not sure how many.

     

    Godwin actually might be a good threshold for me. I think I'm on the fence with him. I think I'd take him over Leonard but probably not over Q... Not sure. Have to think about it more.

     

  9. 10 minutes ago, w87r said:

    QB, LT, DE, DT, CB

     

    Really depends on system after QB, LT, DE

     

    WR is really low on the list. Ballard clearly seems to think this as well, as he seems to "value" the trenches way more than skill positions.

     

    To me, value is placed on how easy it is to replace you. There are so many above average to good WRs(where I would put Godwin), there are so few All Pro Guards and LBs. In other words, Godwin is easier to replace, Nelson and Leonard, not so much. So in my opinion that makes them more valuable.

     

     

    After those first 5 positions(3) listed above, I don't think there is much difference in positional breakdown, have to look at individual players impact on the game after that, despite position.

     

     

     

    Ask the Ravens how important Ray Lewis was for them. I imagine they would say he was more valuable than anyone else on that team. Far more than Qadry Ismail.

     

    The Colts had a ragtag squad of WRs, still went 11-5. It wasn't because our receivers were so valuable.

     

    Let's just say I disagree, and I would put WR firmly somewhere among those other positions you listed after QB. Very possibly at no. 2 too.

    10 minutes ago, w87r said:

    Why you're the one that brought them in the discussion, by saying Godwin is "probably" more valuable than both combined and that you would entertain the discussion on trading one of them for Godwin. :dunno:

    Yes, in PFF's system and it was me expanding on a response to someone wondering why Tampa bay is ranked this high and above us. This was part of my answer.

    10 minutes ago, w87r said:

     

    EDIT: And it's a shame that, what I thought was a good thread, turned to something else after the bad take on Godwin vs Q/DL.

    It's not a "bad take". It was a guess about how PFFs WAR values them in order to rank Tampa bay over the Colts..

     

  10. 48 minutes ago, w87r said:

    Of course they are not your graphs, but this is your thread and you posted the graphs, hence why I said your graphs.

     

    Back to this. I would like to see this in a thread with a poll.

     

    Can't imagine too many people would take this stand. Would be intriguing to see though, no doubt.

    I know what the poll would say. That won't be shocking at all to me. Wouldn't make it right thought. 

     

    Quote

    Almost as bad as the argument that Godwin is "possibly" more valuable than both of them combined. I don't think there is a WR in the league I would trade for either of them, let alone Godwin.

    I mean... OK, I guess... 

    Quote

    I've never really taken PFF rankings as the final say or anything, I enjoy looking at their ranking, but if this is their conclusion(Godwin is more valuable), then I will probably just not pay much attention to them anymore.

    Why is that? Is it because it goes against your team/favorite players or because you have a good argument against it? OK let me put it like this. 

     

    Forget about Q or DL. Lets divorce this from the Colts. What do you think are the most valuable positions in football? You can have players of the exact same quality at their own position, rank them by which ones you would take in a draft. 

     

    I don't get why it's so hard to admit that WR is more valuable position than LB or G. This should be pretty non-controversial IMO. It doesn't mean the best guards or LBs in the league are garbage. They are awesome and DL and Q are awesome. The question is - how valuable are they? Compared to similarly ranked players of different positions? Or even slightly worse players at different more valuable positions? 

     

    Lets say Q is the best guard in the league. Would you take him over Aaron Donald(the best DT in the league)? Would you take him over Mahomes(best QB in the league)? Would you take him over Khalil Mack(Nick Bosa, TJ Watt... whoever you consider best EDGE)? Would you take him over Devante Adams(or whoever you consider best WR in the leauge)? Ronnie Stanley(or whoever you think is best LT in the league)? etc...

     

    For the record: I would take every single one of them over Q. And I love Q and I think he's amazing and the best thing that has happened to this franchise in the last 5 years... maybe more... maybe since drafting Luck... 

  11. 7 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

    Look...   I like Godman...   I really do.   But I looked him up this morning to double check.   In his 4 years with TB, he has one 1,000 yard season.  One.   And it wasn’t even this year.  His two other good seasons were both 840 yards.  
     

    Does any of that sound like a guy who is more valuable than Leonard and Q....   together?!?   
    Goodness, I don’t think he’s more valuable than either alone.   Certainly not together. 
     

    Im impressed that Tampa has hit in such a large number of draft picks these last few days.   I’m even more impressed that guys like Fournette and Brown go there and buy-in.  Props to everyone at TB. 
     

    I just think in your enthusiasm to say just how good Godwin is,  I think you went overboard to make a point.   That’s all.... 

    It doesn't matter what I think and my post was not about what I think. It was about what PFF's numbers likely are saying. You are doing the same thing w87r is doing with the raw numbers. They don't tell you the story of how good/valuable the player has been in PFF's system. Their grades and WAR derived from the grades should tell you whether he's more or less valuable. 

     

    If you asked me whether I would trade DL+Q for Godwin my answer would be HELL NO. Now if you ask if I would trade one of them for Godwin... that might be worth a discussion. 

  12. 8 minutes ago, w87r said:

    Valuable position? What does it really mean?

    It means it correlates better to winning/losing. Good players to winning, bad players to losing. 

    8 minutes ago, w87r said:

    Just going to throw this out there.

     

    Godwin 4yr avg season stats:

    61rec 880yds 6tds

     

    TY Hilton 2020 stats:(down year)

    56rec 762yds 5tds

     

    Valuable position vs replaceable player

    Irrelevant. Also, those are surface level stats, they don't tell you whether a player played well or bad. 

     

    8 minutes ago, w87r said:

    I would be more inclined to say it is way easier to find a WR to put up these very average numbers that Godwin has put up over the first 4 years of his career,(which is what your graphs show 4 years) than it is to find an All Pro Guard and All Pro LBer, let alone them combined.

     

    27 WR's had that many yards or more this year, than Godwin avg season.

    36 WR's had that many receptions or more this year, than Godwin avg season.

     

    So you tell me who is more valuable/replaceable?

    It's obvious that you it's harder to find all pro guard than a Godwin type receiver. There are only 4 guards every year with that accomplishment and at least about 10WRs with Godwin's season. This is NOT what valuable mean. It means what Godwin is giving you is more valuable for winning than what Nelson gives you. 

     

    8 minutes ago, w87r said:

    I actually liked your graphs but the statement that Godwin is more valuable than Q and DL combined is not a good one, and if that is what the graphs indicate, then it takes all the validity out of them.

     

    And to be fair I like Godwin, but that statement you made, as NCF said, is just several bridges to far from reality.

    They are not my graphs, they are PFF graphs. I'm not sure Q+DL combined are less valuable in their metric than Godwin, but I wouldn't be surprised if they are. Each of them individually I'm almost certain is less valuable in their metric than Godwin. I mean... it either is true or it's not. I made the qualifier of "probably" simply because I don't have the exact numbers, but if I had to guess in their metric Godwin is quite a bit more valuable than Q and DL individually and very possibly more valuable than them combined. 

  13. 3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


    I don’t know why you felt the need to go there, but you did.   This is several bridges too far from reality.   Good luck selling this to anyone.    Astonishing. 
     

    I was talking in their system. I was adding to Zoltan responding to someone wondering why Tampa Bay is ranked so high(higher than the Colts). This is the reason. Drafted players at valuable positions performing well. 

  14. 4 hours ago, w87r said:

    sassy d&d GIF by Hyper RPG

     

    If that's the case, throw these graphs in the garbage bin.

     

    A guy who has (1) 1,000yd season and (0) 10td seasons, in 4 years, is more valuable than 2 multi time All Pros combined.

     

    stan against evil GIF by IFC

    WRs are more valuable than guards and LBs. I was speculating about the numbers here because I don't know for sure . If someone has access to their stats, please share them. I wouldn't be surprised though. Godwin ranks very highly in their grading on which the WAR metric is partially based on so... They wrote in the article above that even though Q has been better player at his position he's bringing about the same value as Calvin Ridley who's not been as good as him but plays the more valuable position.  Calvin Ridley is ranked lower than Godwin by PFF. 

  15. 34 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

    I don't think very many off-season Mocks, including professional talking heads, are incorporating the reduced salary cap level enough into Free Agent contract predictions.  All your contract numbers make sense to me in a normal year, none are out of whack with normal market values, but there simply isn't enough money sloshing around the league to fuel them.  It's unfortunate for TY, but if we don't pay him 2yrs/$20M, it's almost certain that nobody else will.  There will be a handful of normal, bank breaking UFA signings to premium and rising second contract players, but the rest of the league's UFA's are mostly going to have to play on cheap one year deals slotted by their relative value.  

     

    Even after 1/2 the league finishes slashing their roster to get below minimums, there isn't a third of the cap space available to spend in a normal rising cap year...

    Yep, I've been thinking about that too... I wonder if the money crunch will affect only the low to mid end FAs or if it will hit the premier ones too. I kind of feel like the premier ones will still get the big bucks but maybe the mid-level ones will be massively affected. BTW if the big time FAs are affected by it, it might be a good idea to spend big now in a depressed market - get a few premier players on what will be considered bargain contracts once the cap start jumping again(hopefully next year)... 

    • Like 1
  16. 35 minutes ago, NDSU_Guy said:

    I can tell you all how this is going to go.

    If Wentz does his first press conference wearing a ridiculous colorful outfit trying to look like Cam Newton you guys are in trouble.

    If he shows up in a hoodie or camo he is back to his roots and will do great.

     

    Thats my prediction. 

    What's with his sleeve on the throwing arm? It's super distracting watching him play with it. 

  17. 12 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

    These are the players that really stood out to me in the last 4 drafts

    2017

    Round 3, No. 84: Chris Godwin Star WR

     

    2018

    Round 1, No. 12 overall: Vita Vea  DT Starter

    Round 2, No. 38 overall: Ronald Jones II RB Split Backfield with Fournette

    Round 2, No. 63 overall: Carlton Davis CB Starter

    Round 3, No. 94: Alex Cappa Guard Starter

    Round 4, No. 117 overall: Jordan Whitehead, S Starter

     

    2019

    Round 1, No. 5 overall: Devin White, LB Star player Starter

    Round 2, No. 39 overall: Sean Bunting, CB Starter

    Round 3, No. 94 overall: Jamel Dean, CB backup with meaningful snaps

    Round 6, No. 208 overall: Scott Miller, WR good depth WR

     

    2020

    Round 1, No. 13 overall: Tristan Wirfs, OT Starter

    Round 2, No. 45 overall: Antoine Winfield Jr., S Starter potential star safety

    Yeah, their whole secondary is made out of drafted players. Plus some OL starters + Vita Vea + Godwin ... They pretty much fielded 10 starters in the Superbowl that were drafted by them in the last 4 years. Godwin alone is probably more valuable than both Leonard and Q

    • Like 1
    • Confused 1
  18. 7 minutes ago, HoosierHero said:

    I’d like to know what you think of Trey Hendrickson? Is he someone that will even be available? 

    If I had to guess he will be available(New Orleans are in deep trouble cap-wise). I am not sure Ballard would be willing to outbid everybody else for his signing though. And yes, he is a player we should be interested in IMO. Young, traitsy, productive... 

    • Thanks 1
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