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Posts posted by stitches

  1. 19 minutes ago, GoatBeard said:

    Well yeah, obviously Ballard IS a big fan of this defense.


    I think its because he believes that with the high octane offenses in the league your only chance is to generate pressure with your front 4 and cover with 7.


    And I dont think thats a crazy mindset at all. Blitzing can be effective but its playing with fire against top teams and they WILL expose you if you play too much. Aaron Rodgers talked about this with McAfee a few weeks ago when they played the Steelers. He said on tape they blitzed constantly but in the game against him they barely blitzed at all. Teams generally dont like to blitz unless they have to, or they can afford to.  


    I also agree we need to mix coverage. I would like guys that can play both zone and man well, but I realize most of these DBs are only good at 1 style of coverage and the guys who can do both are rare and highly coveted. Same goes for LBs.


    There are a few things I know for certain about our defensive performance so far this season......


    1. Our pass rush has been anything but consistent. And thats a huge part of this defense being effective. Coach Flus said as much in his presser yesterday. Without pressure on the QB, youre toast in todays NFL facing any competent QB.


    2. Our DBs have been banged up. Both starters on the outside have missed time. Between Rhodes, Carrie and Ya Sin, they have missed a combined 8 games out of 15 possible games played, as a group. Thats 3 of your top 4 corners.


    3. Our best corner, Kenny Moore, has not looked like himself at all. I dont think hes hurt, but he has been struggling. And Im not sure why.


    I get that at a certain point, people are tired of hearing this injury stuff, but it DOES matter when it comes to how your team performs. Its not like the old days when you could be overly physical and hide talent defenciencies against unfavorable matchups. You can only meet talent with talent now. 


    And we just dont have it, especially when we arent healthy. We not only need to get healthy, we need to develop a better pass rush once we do. THEN we might have something.


    But I dont think its fair to blame the defensive scheme when we clearly arent playing it well. Thats all.


    Agree with tons of this. About blitzing - yes indeed - IF you can get pressure rushing just 4, you should do it and dedicate 7 to coverage for majority of situations. Even with that said, IMO there is a value in disguising stuff.  For example, recently pretty much every team in the NFL has been lining up 5+ player on the line before the snap... and after the snap one or more of those players drop into coverage while the rest rush, but once in a while it's all out blitz. It's just better to keep the offense on their toes about what exactly you are running on each snap. Otherwise teams get in their comfort zone, they get in a rhythm and they know how to counter what you show them before the snap. This includes BTW, not just blitz packages, but also disguising what coverage you are running on any particular snap. 

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  2. 6 minutes ago, GoatBeard said:

    Youre right I thought they played more zone and forgot they got Bowles now.


    My point was essentially any defense looks bad if you dont get pressure on the QB, or play your assigment well. 


    I agree I wish we disguised more. But its hard for me to know what the problem is because I dont know how they are coached to play the defense. Are they just not executing?


    Because I doubt Eberflus is saying "Hey lets let them pick up easy first downs all the way down the field and score TDs."


    I like to give our coacbes more credit than that. They arent complete *s even tho they might not be great at their jobs.


    We werent horrible on defense last year, playing this same scheme. Good offenses score points on everybody now.

    I don't for a moment think coaches in the NFL are *. They know more than any of us on a football forum would ever know about football. But I do think they have certain things they are comfortable with and trained in and in a lot of cases they just ... implement what they know best and don't spread their wings too much with experimentation. That's why it's important to know what the coaches you are hiring are trained in and what they will run when they become OC or DC for your team. And all indications are that Eberflus' experience and the defense he wanted to run was an actual selling point for Ballard. Ballard wanted this specific defense. So I guess... if you are going to do that... you have to deliver those coaches the players he needs to play that defense. So... we are waiting now... 

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  3. 12 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

    Let’s tap the breaks a bit….


    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I count 5 top 100 picks, not 6.


    17 — Basham 

    18 — Turay, Lewis

    19 — Banogu

    20 — N/A

    21 — Paye  (He says he’s excluding Dayo)


    I count 5.


    As for Buckner, he was signed to an $84 million dollar contract, not $100 mill.   He’s playing below his standards this year.  But isn’t everyone?

    I think the 1st we gave up for Buckner is included. 

  4. 1 hour ago, GoatBeard said:

    Who won last year?


    The tampa 2 has been apart of many championships.


    They just had a front 4 that played well enough to execute it.

    The Bucs play one of the more varied coverages in the league. I wish we did as many different things and disguised them as well as they do. 

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  5. 16 hours ago, GoatBeard said:

    Right on.


    I dont understand the panic stricken people that want somebody fired everytime we lose a game, and I never will.


    Ive seen so many comments "we will never win a title with this defense"


    Fools we already did! A much more vanilla version in fact! 


    I couldnt enjoy being a fan with that kind of mindset. It would be a waste of time to me.

    Umh... actually ... no. We won in 2007. This is 2021. The game today is much different offensively and good QBs and offenses feast on this type of soft zone type of defense. Hell, even players with questions in the passing game like Lamar Jackson know how to find the soft spots and kill you. Now, part of it of course is the personnel. That type of defense has some chance to work if you are able to create consistent and quick pressure and not allow a QB to sit in the pocket and distribute the ball but unfortunately we don't seem to have that personnel. We are among the worst pass-rushing teams in the league and it shows.


    I'm not sure I want Eberflus fired and I'm not sure how much different things he can do with the players he has(bad secondary, bad pass-rush)... and quite frankly.. it's quite possible this is the best type of defense for the astounding lack of impact players we have both in the secondary and on the line. But yah... IMO ideally you would have the talent on the roster to explore much more variety in coverage and in disguising... but for the time being IMO I think the talent on the roster is a much bigger hinderance than the scheme. 

  6. 10 hours ago, JediXMan said:

    He had no business playing at Tennessee. That games skews his stats a bit. Overall he’s looked like a top 15 QB. That’s much better than last year where he was at the bottom. He Finally looked healthy and the OL gave him time.  

    Agree on the Tennessee game. He was put in a horrible no win situation in the condition he was. I disagree that game skews his stats a ton. He had very low air yards/attempt yards to the sticks per attempt, etc... even before that. He's been better at those in last 2 games. 

    10 hours ago, richard pallo said:

    Wilson going after Wentz after five games is really laughable.  I don’t know what he was expecting after five games.  I am disregarding him more and more.  He’s a young wannabe who has a long way to go.  I expect he will eventually flame out and disappear.

    Those are just some stats. Don't shoot the messenger. 

    9 hours ago, bsteves said:


    Did you watch the first few games?

    Do you have a point or argument to make? 


    8 hours ago, AustinnKaine said:

    Are you taking into account the injuries he played through?? Or the terrible protection in the first couple weeks? What about the extremely questionable playcalling the first couple weeks too? Or what about the fact he is playing with all new receivers. An injured line? 


    Numbers do lie. Anyone who takes an introductory stats course will know this. 


    No disrespect @stitches - I just think compounding variables always need to be included with stats. 

    Some of those have an impact on it. But you can evaluate what you see even with all those taken into account. I said in my post that I thought he's been OK to good in my opinion. I just think we need more from him. Lets hope his last game or two are showing actual trajectory of growth rather than a fluke(BTW, it's not like he didn't have some questionable plays even in that Baltimore game). He's taking way too many sacks and his pocket awareness is at times pretty bad. 


    7 hours ago, shasta519 said:

    Yep. People are extreme these days. Wentz was excellent last night, but overall, average QB play vs. the other QBs in the NFL (which is the only meaningful comparison). 

    This is an unprecedented era of offense, if Wentz can play like last night consistently, the Colts have a chance to keep up.


    But just look at the other side of the field. A “running QB” who people say can’t pass…tossed 400 and 4 on 37/43 passes. The standard for great QB play is really really high.

    Lets put it this way - go over those games and let me know which QB played better in each game. In every single game except for the Miami game it was the other team's QB. Now sure... Wentz is not playing against our putrid defense, but still. In today's NFL teams find ways to get OK performances from their QBs relatively easy and at the highest level we need Wentz to be great, not just OK. 


    5 hours ago, EastStreet said:

    I think this is a pretty weak and lazy look (not to mention has zero context) from "Josh Williams" who's every single mention about Wentz is a negative one.


    He's been average, but with a completely horrendous OL. His blindside LT (whoever it has been) has graded 40s level, and he's had a different line up every week.


    That's comparable to what happened to him last year in Philly. And if you compare him to his stats in Philly, he's improved tremendously. He's also thrown zero turnover worthy balls (at least as of last week).



    I don't care about Josh Wilson's opinions, he posted stats and this is what I've posted here too. I agree with all the caveats but you can still evaluate what Wentz is doing even in the presence in all those mitigating factors around him(questionable playcalling, OL issues, etc.). I agree he's improved a lot compared to last year. I don't agree we can say he's the guy based on what we've seen so far. I just need to see more games like yesterday and less games like the first 3 games, in which I want to point out - he wasn't really the problem, but he wasn't the solution either.  


    4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

    I think showing stats after five weeks that show Wentz in the middle of the pack and calling him “average” is….   I don’t want to say “lazy”, but I’ll say shallow and superficial.  

    You need context.   Missed almost all of camp, played behind a decimated line, has gotten better and was very good last night.   His play is ascending.  Given health,  I expect Wentz to continue his good play.   I like our future based on what I’ve seen and what is reasonable to expect.  

    See above. Explained my stance already. People act like you cannot evaluate what he's done because of those factors that have gone against him. I think you can. And I think he's been OK, not great in that stretch of games even taking into account the OL, playcalling, etc. Now if he keeps putting up performances like the one against Baltimore, I will adjust my evaluation accordingly, but lets not act like this is not an absolute outlier type of game from him(this is literally the highest yardage game in his career) :dunno:

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  7. 45 minutes ago, Flash7 said:

    Taking a step back and looking at this data, these are the things that come to mind:


    1. Is it possible that with the same exact players but a different DC, could we generate more pressure/pass rush?

    Possible, but doubt it. Pass-rush is one of the most individual skills in football. Sure, things like blitz packages play some part in it on team level, but to a huge degree it is dependent on the talent you have on the DL

    45 minutes ago, Flash7 said:

    2. It's a numbers game. We mainly have 1 person for opposing teams to focus on, on our D-line, (D. Buckner). They can double team him and go man-to-man against the other D-lineman, who can't win their 1-on-1 matchups. With Houston and Autry gone, this has been a major issue this year, and that's why D. Buckner has been relatively quiet.

    I read some stat that was insane in my eyes - AQM was among the players most frequently doubled in the league. This does NOT speak well for this DL either. 

    45 minutes ago, Flash7 said:

    3. We do play different coverages on defense aside from just Cover-2 soft zone defense; however, that's our base defense. That means that most of the time we are banking on our 4-down lineman to get to the QB. And they haven't. 

    Yep, that scheme is one of the least blitz heavy ones in the league. 

    45 minutes ago, Flash7 said:

    4. Should we look at other ways to generate more pressure? Blitzes by the LBs? Blitzes by DBs? I've seen a very vanilla defense. One that consistently allows for opponents to have career days.


    5. What changes need to be made by our defensive scouting department? Give less weight to RAS scores and go by actual college production?

    I don't mind RAS/athleticism measurements. They actually correlate relatively well with success in the league for pass-rushers. What I'm not sure correlates super well with success is "high character" which seems to be something Ballard is emphasizing. Now, that doesn't mean completely ignore it, but use it more as elimination factor for some complete nutcases rather than as an important factor. 

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    He's been distinctly... average so far. We need more Wentz games like the one yesterday for me to be convinced he's the guy. So far he's been OK to good(excluding the game he shouldn't have played IMO). This will not be good enough over the long haul IMO. We need more consistently great Wentz. 


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  9. 1 minute ago, jchandler7 said:

    Ballard is trying ill give him that but... wow!!

    I was going to say - Grigson tried to fix the OL too, but failed... but that's not exactly the case. The highest pick Grigson spent on an OL player is a second round pick on Mewhort who was pick 59. 


    Ballard has truly tried hard. But does it make a difference whether you've tried or not if the results are such that I would actually have preferred if he didn't try and had spent all those resources on other positions. 

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  10. One of the worst things is barely getting a mention in here - him, Bruce Allen and other male employees were exchanging topless pictures of Washington cheerleaders, who at the time were in the middle of a sexual harassment lawsuit against the Redskins and called them "juicy *"... HOW? How does one feel comfortable doing this with other higher ups in football organizations? My only guess would be - this is not an isolated incident and the NFL and NFL teams are filled with people with similar attitudes towards women, minorities and homosexual people so... it's just not that big a deal to them.. it's something they've seen before and even if they don't participate in it, they ignore it. This is how stuff like this is hidden over the better part of a decade and only emerges when the league needs a scapegoat to divert attention from the owners of that team in the middle of the scandal. 

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  11. 5 hours ago, bravo4460 said:

    We can still get out first. There is no reason to sit Wentz early in the season. They won’t have to make the decision until the final 3 games.

    More like the final 5 games. 


    But I agree. IMO what we should do is - if Wentz is healthy, play him and continue evaluating him. If we are not in position to contend for playoff spot - bench him for the final 5 games to preserve the pick(and possibly even improve it). 


    After the season - if you believe Wentz is the guy, use the pick to get some difference maker(s) - BPA or trade down for multiple picks. If you still have questions about Wentz - evaluate the QBs in the draft and if you love one of them, just draft him. I don't care about hurting Wentz' feelings, especially if he's not played well enough by that time to convince you he's the guy. 


    Unfortunately I cannot really see this happening. I don't think Frank will want to bench Wentz. 


    IMO the most likely scenario is one of the worst case scanrios. I think we might be within reach of playoffs(like... a long shot, but still possible 5 weeks before the end of the season) and we will keep playing Wentz... miss the playoffs and lose the pick. Stay mediocre for the foreseeable future with no playmakers at the most important positions in football. But hey, at least we will have 100M dollar linebacker and guard. :dunno:

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  12. If we give Nelson the money he deserves we won't have much money to spend in FA. This is the path Ballard has chosen and I doubt he will change now. He will make small to medium additions in FA and will pay his drafted players that he likes. For good or bad this is what we should expect. 

  13. This is a resounding indictment of Eason and his chances to ever make it on this roster. IMO this is a clearcut sign that Reich(and Ballard?) just don't trust him. He just lost his backup spot to a player who nobody in the league wanted who's been nothing but bad whenever he's played before as a backup and was horrible with this team in pre-season. Hundley has never shown anything to suggest he can be a successful even as a backup QB in the league and Reich picked a player we've seen fail in the past over the uncertainty of what Eason can be. 


    I personally wouldn't be shocked if Eason gets cut either by the end of this season or just doesn't make the roster next off-season. 


    It's also a capitulation and admission of failure from the management of this team in regards to the backup QB spot. Right now we have 4 QBs on the roster and it's obvious that it's not because we love them all... but rather - it's because we don't trust any of them and the coaching staff is throwing excrements at the wall hoping something sticks. 

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  14. 54 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

    What is funny is, I was in here when Chuck was coach and he never went for it. I remember several people complaining that he never went for it. Frank does and yet people still complain. Which is it I ask? 

    It might be different people complaining but yeah... 

  15. Fans have horrible intuitions about decisions that are heavily mathematically influenced, especially when they've seen the game played one way for 100 years and now some nerds who have never played a minute of football come along and tell them a lot of the things they've done all their lives are wrong(or more accurately - not optimal). People would be shocked to see just how much MORE than what Frank has gone for on 4th down, he needs to go for purely mathematically, and Frank has actually been one of the better coaches in the NFL with his 4th down decisions(go vs no go, not his playcalls on those 4th down).


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  16. My thoughts on the game - we finally did the bare minimum, which we had failed with before. Even though the game was won somewhat comfortably, I didn't see much from this team to give me optimism. I still think this defense will be incredibly porous against good QBs/offenses (Jacoby is not that, like we've established before). Our offense was still struggling for most of the first half, but I thought they finally found some rhythm in the second half and this was tied directly to Wentz' performance, IMO. He was incredibly slow with his reads and was holding the ball too much in the first half, but seemed to do better finding his early reads in the second half. 


    To summarize - I'm still very concerned about this team, but there are some flashes with Wentz that make me believe he's getting better with his injuries(looked much more mobile than last week) and he's definitely ditched some of his heroball tendencies from last year.

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  17. 37 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

    He said teams asked him about that before the draft and he answered he was fine with moving to LT.  He thinks he can play any position on the line


    There were teams that wanted to put him there but he was gone by their pick 

    That was 3 years ago. Reports this year were that Q being reluctant to make the move was one of the reasons it wasn't tried. 

    • Thanks 1
  18. IMO paying Nelson is a no brainer. I don't think it's the best way to spend 20M, but I also think it will be hard finding better ways to spend it on a single player simply because players of that quality at more valuable positions rarely hit FA and when they do they usually won't choose the Colts. 


    I've said it before and I will say it again - the biggest mistake GMs make is paying bad/mediocre players big money. Paying big money to elite talent is very rarely if ever a mistake and Nelson is as elite as you can get in the league. 

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