Dilger85
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Posts posted by Dilger85
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9 minutes ago, dgambill said:
My question is if you have two first round stud OL in college why couldn't Notre Dame manage to play better? You would think they could at least line up and run behind them for 4 or 5 yds per carry every time at least. That's disappointing or a couple guys are getting over hyped.
What are you talking about? ND averaged in the top 10 in the NCAA for rushing yards this past year. The line won the Joe Moore award that goes to the most dominating NCAA OL. There really was not much that was disappointing about the ND OL line last year.
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Just now, TomDiggs said:
Gotcha. My bad. I though he was visiting over the weekend. Guess we will see how tomorrow goes then.
He seems to fit the mold of Dion Lewis who they were interested in as well, hopeful that he signs.
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7 minutes ago, azcolt said:
Kind of figured Ballard was getting left at the altar the last few days and this cinches it. $15mil for a guy who has been the Lions version of Trent Richardson. Overpaid high #1 pick , booed by the home fans and untradeable.
Up to 15. Doubt that is guaranteed, you are also overstating how bad the guy has been.
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7 minutes ago, TomDiggs said:
I never saw much about how the Williams visit went.
Although a blurb did come out that he was to visit the Chiefs next.
So my guess is that we offered him something below what he wanted and he's making more visits if so.
According to reports he is coming in tomorrow. He visited the chiefs today
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9 hours ago, azcolt said:
You didn’t miss anything but anyone trying to draw parallels to baseball and the A’s obviously missed a lot. There is no comparison, as you noted. It will be fascinating to see how Ballard plans to allocate all of that cap room. I suspect Luck’s tenuous situation is really hurting.
Exactly and then when you consider that the book and the movie barely touched on the most important aspect of those A's teams......the pitching, then the parallel crumbles even more. Those A's teams won because for the outstanding starting pitching they had not due to Moneyball.
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9 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:
In Baseball Billy Beane invented moneyball because small market teams couldn't compete financially with big market teams. The Oakland A's don't generate the revenue the Yankees do.
In the NFL all revenue is shared equally between the 32 teams. A small market team like Indy, Green Bay have just as much money to spend on players as NY Jets, Giants etc... Plus there's a salary cap enforcing no team has a advantage over another by way outspending their counterparts.
The way I see it there's no reason for moneyball in football.
If I missed something please explain.
Beane did not invent Moneyball. He hired a guy working with the Cleveland Indians at the time and listened to his philosophies at what sabermetics mattered. The guy from Cleveland was a Bill James disciple who stressed OBP and SLG as statistical predictors. Beane went to the extreme because he had to, but he did not come up with the idea all by himself.
I do agree though that trying to apply this approach to football doesn't mesh with the market.
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10 hours ago, BlueShoe said:
I have somewhat joked about Moneyball this year in several threads. Last year, many of us saw similarities in Chris Ballard’s approach to free agency and the movie Moneyball. Some of us had a lot of fun with that.
I am not saying this is what’s happening, and by the time I submit this thread, I could be proven completely wrong by some big splash free agent signing. I will entertain the thought, because what else do we have going on?
For those who have not seen the movie, I will summarize. The movie Moneyball is based on true events in Major League Baseball, but as with any movie there are exaggerations. The premise is to use a statistical system that will predict players who (when given more opportunity) will outplay their valued contract.
This type of system is designed to find diamonds in the rough. Instead of buying well-known commodity players, the idea is to purchase players off the middle-shelf. The more times you can pay a middle-shelf player and get the production of a well-known commodity… that’s the ultimate end game.
Some of us have joked around about Chris Ballard having this type of mindset. So, you may ask how this system could translate to the NFL. We would need a rating system devised of advanced stats, such as PFF. It doesn’t have to be PFF stats, but something like it would make sense.
Let’s pretend our budget in free agency this offseason is 50 million. Keep in mind this is not our free cap space. This is our budget, and we need to understand those are always 2 separate things. Money is allocated from our budget to each position of need. Instead of spending the 50 million on 4 players (12.5 million each), we spend it on 10 players (5 million each).
We don’t strike on the first day or necessarily the first weekend. Instead, we wait patiently until the big money is given out from other teams. Once the initial free agency frenzy is over, the players who are left realize they are not the top dollar players and it becomes easier to negotiate with them.
From here we use our "PFF type of" grading system to find players who are trending upwards and if given more opportunity, they could become contributing players. Ballard seems to like players who have just completed their rookie deal and haven’t been full-time starters but have shown production in limited opportunity. Which is why we joke about the Moneyball stuff.
This could be far-fetched, but I think it makes the most sense right now. Ballard did the same thing last year. It is possible that this is who he is. Until we must start paying our own players to stay, this could be how free agency goes for us.
Chris Ballard playing Moneyball is my best guess right now.
Moneyball is exploiting the marketplace. OBP and SLG were undervalued at the time of that book, but the A's were not the first ones to study Bill James and his statistical approach to baseball. Beane received accolades for that due to the extremes that he went to with saber-metrics.
In football, what is undervalued so much that you can take advantage of the marketplace. As other people have said, there is a salary cap in football so this type of approach has marks against it from the beginning.
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4 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:
Didn't realize that, my apologizes.
Yeah, SD switched him inside a year or two ago (then the Giants played him all last year inside) just doesn't have the feet to keep up with speed but he is usually a sound run blocker. My opinion, he would be a filler until a drafted guy develops.
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1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:
If we get him and Jensen, then the O-Line will finally start to take shape. Fluker would be an upgrade at RT. Then Nelson could fill out the line completely.
If they bring him in, then he will be playing G probably RG
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10 minutes ago, Luck 4 president said:
Rapaport said “he could command double digits” if he does I’m gonna be * we didn’t outbid the jags for Norwell. Would you rather have Jensen for 10-11 or Norwell for 14?
Who is to say that Norwell would have signed here for the same price? We shouldn't assume that Norwell would have been willing to sign here for the money he signed in Jville. We also do not know how high Jville would have went either.
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6 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:
How many DL do you normally have on the roster when you run a 4-3?
7, maybe 8?
8 or sometimes 9
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6 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:
Sounds like a very decent signing actually. I could see him making the 53 next season. Really like it.
Agree, if nothing else maybe a core special teamer and quality back up.
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1 minute ago, DougDew said:
?
That's what I just said you said.
It getting late. Good night Ken.
That is not being offended or righteous that is just not agreeing and then discussing it. But you are right that it is getting late. Night Doug
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1 minute ago, DougDew said:
I'm a little edgy because I think I have about 3 people arguing with me over something I really don't care much about.
I think what's going on here is that some people take modern social training a bit too seriously and reflectively become offended at the notion of anybody ever using a concept remotely similar to "guilt by association" to form any opinion about anything, and they feel the need to be the self appointed righteous internet police to call the person out.
Nope, just don’t agree with opinions that are in my opinion faulty.
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10 minutes ago, DougDew said:
Strawman. I didnt say state it. You criticized the basis of it.
And, offensive minded football coaches get hired together because of similar philosophies, so there is a decent point to his comment. They don't "work with" each other out of randomness.
Maybe Jared's 5 seconds of intuition is better than someone else's 5 minutes of "research". As you say, nobody knows.
Additionally, Trestman’s offensive philosophies were what some of us were saying was actually good because of his long line of success as an offensive coach.
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5 minutes ago, DougDew said:
Strawman. I didnt say state it. You criticized the basis of it.
And, offensive minded football coaches get hired together because of similar philosophies, so there is a decent point to his comment. They don't "work with" each other out of randomness.
Maybe Jared's 5 seconds of intuition is better than someone else's 5 minutes of "research". As you say, nobody knows.
So he had a right to state his opinion using research but I didn’t. You can’t gain intuition by reading a name. Reich worked with Mike McCoy does that mean that Reich is a awful coach?
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2 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:
Still not sure how or why My positive attitude was attacked
This whole thread went really sideways. I mean in a thread discussing an assistant we’ve touched on what constitutes evidence, knowledge, science, data, and true fandom. That is a full discussion. Thanks for the latitude.
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3 minutes ago, DougDew said:
About 3 by my count. Flat out told him he basically didn't have the right to think what he was thinking based upon the way he was thinking about it.
Not once did I or anyone state that he didn’t have the right to state his opinion. We disagreed with his reasoning and told him why. Then the internet genius thing came up then you chimed in with some of your nonsense.
I don't know if this will be a good hire or not. Nobody does, but dismissing a coach because he worked with a bad NFL HC is in my opinion short sighted.
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You know what, Jared’s original point was that he didn’t like the hire because he coached with Trestman. How did he know that without researching the guy a little? I got on him for essentially calling out people that look things up because they want to learn more about a subject.
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Anyway, Trestman has had positive influences on most of the quarterbacks that he has worked with and if Brady has picked up that aspect, then I think the hire will be a success.
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8 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:
The plagiarizers know who they are, and are very defensive...Lol..I have had similar thoughts..People quote an NFL insider word for word after looking something up and act like it's their original thought..Why I like to watch players and form my own opinions on them instead of just repeating what I've read, or whats popular..
That is some passive aggression there, hope you were not referring to me because I literally have no idea what you are talking about.
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I think this was stated in the thread somewhere but he has had some experience with some really good offensive coaches. Be interesting to see what position group he will coach. Guessing QB but you never know.
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3 minutes ago, DougDew said:
But when other people jump on you to tell you, not that they disagree with your opinion, but that how you formed your opinion is wrong, it gets annoying. I get it.
Some people are very good at making quick judgments on very little information and being correct. Others need to research things,examine data, and basically have the answers spoon fed to them shouldn't criticize how others who don't do that make judgments. Some people have a process that isn't suited to others. Big deal.
You mean like coaches putting together a game plan or doctors making a diagnosis or lawyers looking to prove their case. Yeah you are right all of those professions have answers "spoon fed" to them. If you are making quick reactionary judgements then you have no process.
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9 minutes ago, DougDew said:
Nah. I know that 2 + 3 = 5 because once I bring two more skittles into a pile of three, I count 5. It only helps that I also read it in a math book and my teacher told me, but its not the basis of my knowledge. But once I grasp the concepts, then I know.
I know table salt is SodiumChloride because I have confidence that its composition is an unyielding provable thing, and that there are people who have been trained in how to prove it.
Not much real knowledge about the evaluation of people or events can be found by reading articles or stats.
You were not born knowing how to count, that is learned. You didn't know that salt is composed of Sodium Chloride when you were born, you learned that from somewhere. That last sentence might be the most unintelligent phrase I have ever read.
But I digress, we are getting off topic.
I am willing to wait and see how this hire works out before passing judgement.
Chris Ballard arrives at ND Pro Day
in Colts Football
Posted
I watched all of their games as well. The issue was Wimbush couldn't throw accurately. By about the third game of the season, defenses were scheming to put 8 or 9 in the box to stop the run. NFL lines can't run on those fronts so yeah you are being a little hard on them. Against LSU and Michigan St, they averaged over 4.5 yards a carry. There flat out was not many times that they needed yards and ran it behind Nelson and McGlinchey that they didn't get what they needed. Stanford and Miami held them in check, but the only game that the running game was completely shut down was Georgia and they played in the NC game so they did that to a lot of teams.