A8bil
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Posts posted by A8bil
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11 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:
4.38 isn’t fast?
That would seem to be pretty fast to mist people. I appreciate that none of us have actually seen it put to good use yet... but that doesn’t mean Hines isn’t plenty fast...
Fast? The 40 time is more about quick, not fast... . I don't think Hines is that fast. If you watch college highlights, he wasn't outrunning defenders in the way Jahvid Best, or CJ Spiller did. As fast as most DBs? I would agree with that.
That said, being a RB is more than just speed. Look at what Taiwan Jones has done in his career. Spoiler alert: Nothing. He's far faster than Hines (and quicker) but just not much of a RB. Speed without shiftiness or the ability to read and use blocks really doesn't get a RB very far.
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The fallacy of picking up great backs in mid-rounds. The truth is that when a difference maker at RB comes along, he gets taken in the 1st round. When a difference maker is not available, mid to late round picks are used to pick up flawed RBs....that doesn't mean that those RBs cannot have an impact, but they have to overcome their flaws and the likelihood is that they don't pan out. Mack for example needs to stay healthy and learn to run between the tackles consistently.
IN terms of using a high pick for a RB...my mantra is that the game is won in the trenches. A great offensive line makes an avg running game and passing game look better. A great defensive line makes the LBs and DBs look like all pros. Those 3-4th round RBs are more than serviceable when running behind a great offensive line in a well balanced offense. Build the lines first.
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I stated my view on Hines in the "Is he our Dion Lewis" thread and that hasn't changed. That said, Hines' one strength is his speed, and so far we haven't seen him used in a way that we can see his speed. I predicted he wouldn't be shifty enough in the backfield to create open space for himself, but if the O-line gels or Luck gets him the ball in open space, he can still be a weapon. Deep breaths everyone....this is still pre-season.
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Maybe next week?
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2 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:
1 game does not a define a career.
Of course...that's what my post said...it IS just one game. No need to repeat it.
I'm not harping on the mistakes he made or using that to conclude he has no future. I'm just asking whether there are any revised views on how explosive he is/will be based on seeing him play at the NFL level. This was, after all, the first chance to see him at game speed against NFL or near NFL player talent.
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5 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:
It's only 1 game and I do think Hines is explosive.
Yep...as I said, it's only one game. He'll have lots more chances to prove himself.
Thoughts on Mack?
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On 8/2/2018 at 11:04 PM, WoolMagnet said:
You are right about that. Even the coaches have been hyping him up. I rarely predict future success for draftees.... at any position. Too many variables. " Sure things" become busts. And "nobodies" become Hall of Famers. Even the professional GMs have arguably low success in predicting future success.
i just hope the kid plays like he's back in HS "playin ball."
So, now that we've seen Hines play with actual/fringe NFL caliber players, any revised views on him? It is only one game, but it certainly was a chance to see his speed and athleticism compared to the NFL--a huge jump from college. Everyone still think he is explosive?
I continue to believe that Mack shows a speed or quickness, which if not actually faster than other players on the field is somehow deceptive to defenders. He just looks like he's moving faster than everyone else. Hope he can stay healthy.
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3 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:
Barry Sanders and Walter Payton did the same thing.
If I remember correctly, when he played, Sanders lead the NFL in negative rushing plays just about every year.
True, but ... here are the difference(s): (1) Neither Sanders nor Payton had world class speed; and yet, (2) both Sanders and Payton continued to break off huge runs throughout their careers. CJ was pretty much the undisputed fastest man in the NFL for 5-6 years. Only a handful of guys were ever considered in his realm of speed--and most of those, i.e., DeSean Jackson, played on offense. Though fast, neither Sanders nor Payton were considered the fastest guys when they played....they were just great running backs. Both were breaking off big runs throughout the 10 core years of their careers.
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4 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:
Of course, just funny how many accomplished GMs are on this board.
i like to give players a chance before i write them off.
Some more accomplished than others. ;) Let's revisit this thread in December. I don't think Hines will suck, but if he had even Tavon Austin's level of success, I would be surprised. People are just putting way too high of expectations on him.
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11 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:
Damn, i wish Ballard would have talked to you before the draft.
then he wouldnt have wasted the pick on Hines.
well, after Ballard falls the way of Grigs, maybe you can take over.
I guess fans aren't supposed to post opinions on message boards?
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On 5/14/2018 at 12:37 AM, NewColtsFan said:
Thanks for this post. Appreciate it.
An honest question for you... which website had the info, the details about the drop off in 20 and 40 yard runs...? I've never seen or even heard of that? Can you offer me a link?
I haven't forgotten about our discussion. I've been trying to do some homework on it, and it fells on a holiday weekend with some oblgations. And this week has some other considerations. I promise, I will get back to you, just not exactly sure when. I'm not trying to be evasive hear. Things just got a bit busier than I expected...
Thanks for your patience....
Sorry...I sort of dropped off as well...offseason, vacations, etc. J ust go to nfl.com. They show broader statistics. And, if you know how to use pro-football-reference filters, you can get lots of detail.
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13 hours ago, Four2itus said:
There is still a missing piece to this speed discussion. Straight speed is one thing. Cone drills are another. Neither tells you how fast a guy makes a cut when the moment of decision comes. Viewed in a vacuum..., .13 secs looks a like a big difference. But the player who can see the right cut, and executes it instantly, can make up for a lack a speed.Not just a cut, nor a good curt...but the exact right cut.
A great example was Eric Dickerson. He made moves that were just enough to get past a defender, and you would see hands slide off him.....and he would then cut just enough in the other direction, and do the same thing. Edgerrin was also a master of the perfect move. Edge could make 4.5 yards out of what would be 3.2 for a lot of other backs. That wasn't because of his speed.
totally agree. that is just one of many attributes of a great back. Marcus Allen was great at minor adjustments at speed that kept defenders from getting solid hits on him.
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2 hours ago, Stephen said:
Hines isnt a traditional rb anyway. He will probably have more receiving yards than rushing
if they can get him in space that will maximize his impact. A lot of people thought Tavon Austin was going to have a huge impact in the NFL, but so far he hasn't. I haven't watched him much with the Rams, but I"m curious why he hasn't been able to replicate his college success. hines is more RB than Austin was but Hines was impactful as a RB as well. Just hasn't translated to the pros.
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On 5/10/2018 at 9:59 PM, NewColtsFan said:
Yeah.... well I'm with @DaColts I'm not getting it either....
Rendered meaningless? CJ had four more 1,000 yard seasons AFTER his 2k yard season. So, doesn't seem meaningless to me. And he got badly overused. In a two year window, he had 675 carries. In 32 games. Do the math, that's 21 carries a game for two straight years. Teams don't do that any more. The Titan burned him out. And that doesn't include his receptions.
You make it seem like anyone can gain 1,000 yards if they're fast enough. The problem with that argument is most players who are that fast don't want the heavy contact that comes with being a RB. That's why the super fast athletes are more typically WR's and Corners. They avoid contact. Not CJ.
If gaining 2K yards was as easy as those in this thread make it out to be, we'd have someone doing it every year. But that doesn't happen --- does it?
If you simply want to argue that Adrian Peterson was a better back, a tougher back, that his accomplishment were more impressive you'll get no argument from me or anyone else. But trying to trash Chris Johnson to make some point that his accomplishments weren't that impressive is just silly. Embarrassingly silly.
I never said getting 2k was not impressive, and I'm not "trashing" CJ...I'm judging his career for what it was. He had one great year because the league was not prepared for CJ's speed, not that he was a good RB. Once the league adjusted for his speed, he became very pedestrian. 1000 yard seasons? In 2010, there were 17 backs who had 1000+ yds, 15 in 2011 (and CJ was the lowest of all of them), 16 in 2012. Basically half the starting backs in the league reach 1000 yards, and most of those who dont reach 1000 yards operate in a RB by committee system. Again look at his drop off in 20+, 40+ and TD runs. He had one great season (2009), one good season (2010) and the rest were pretty average, but in a way that is not actually helpful to a consistent offense. After 2010, he became a game breaker who couldn't break a game...and he never was a chainmover. Why? Not because he didn't have speed, but because he wasn't a very good RB. Which is the point being made in this thread. Speed without RB skills will not get you far in this league, particularly now that defenses have gotten so much faster.
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21 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:
I'm going to be busy all day and night so I may not get to respond to you until tomorrow...
But I did want to say this....
You objected to my use of the word "silly"? Seriously? That bothered you?
YOU, who called out a fellow poster BY NAME in the FIRST SENTENCE of your post object to the word "silly", which I didn't use until the end of my post. Trust me when I tell you that there are many other words I could have used, ALL of which would have been accurate. I thought I pulled my punch using "silly."
To quote you... your words now... you might want to think before making a comment like that.
Until tomorrow...
OK...
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11 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:
Yeah.... well I'm with @DaColts I'm not getting it either....
Rendered meaningless? CJ had four more 1,000 yard seasons AFTER his 2k yard season. So, doesn't seem meaningless to me. And he got badly overused. In a two year window, he had 675 carries. In 32 games. Do the math, that's 21 carries a game for two straight years. Teams don't do that any more. The Titan burned him out. And that doesn't include his receptions.
You make it seem like anyone can gain 1,000 yards if they're fast enough. The problem with that argument is most players who are that fast don't want the heavy contact that comes with being a RB. That's why the super fast athletes are more typically WR's and Corners. They avoid contact. Not CJ.
If gaining 2K yards was as easy as those in this thread make it out to be, we'd have someone doing it every year. But that doesn't happen --- does it?
If you simply want to argue that Adrian Peterson was a better back, a tougher back, that his accomplishment were more impressive you'll get no argument from me or anyone else. But trying to trash Chris Johnson to make some point that his accomplishments weren't that impressive is just silly. Embarrassingly silly.
Really? Silly? Perhaps think a bit before denigrating others points.
CJ's 2K yards in 2009 was a great accomplishment, but if a RB cant get even close to repeating a 2k season, it is an anomaly, and for CJ that was the case.
In CJ's 2k year, defenses had not recognized or adjusted for his speed. He had an unreal 22 carries that went for more than 20 yards, and 7 that went for more than 40 yards. That was nearly double of AP in both categories, who himself was pretty fast and near the top of the league in both categories. By 2010, CJ was not even the league leader in either category. By 2011, he had only 1 carry over 40 yards. Once defenses took away the big homerun threat from CJ, his lacks of RB skills became very apparent.
I don't buy that it was a result of so many carries. There were lots of backs getting a similar number of carries who didn't fall of the table in production. Do you have any doubt that in 2011-2013 CJ was still the fastest back in the league? Maybe Charles, Best and Spiller had similar speed, but CJ was still the fastest. He simply was not seeing the wide open holes he saw in 2009 because defenses had adjusted to him, and CJ did not have the skills to either move the chains or create long runs for himself (like McCoy does). His game became a bunch of games where he avg. 2-3 ypc and an occasional game where he had a 20-30 yard run.
Believing that even a 4.3 40 guy can replicate what CJ did in 2009 is a fool's game. The league learned and now understands the importance of speed and how to defend it. Defenses are much faster now...the days of the plodding hole stuffing MLB are gone. Side line to side line speed is perhaps the most important criteria teams are looking for when drafting LBs now. Being "fast" is just not enough anymore. A RB needs vision, elusiveness and strength to break arm tackles. I don't see any of these things in Hines.
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6 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:
Because it’s misleading as to how skilled of a runner he was. He was really fast and could break off big runs, but if he wasn’t hitting home runs, he was pedestrian. It made the stats misleading. Adrian Peterson’s 2K was much more impressive. Like the other poster said, he’d average 3 YPC a game and then break off a 70 yard run. You do that twice a game and it looks amazing on paper.
DaColts isn't getting it. CJ2k was not a great running back, but had unusual speed and that resulted in a lot of big runs in the year that he went for 2k. Teams adjusted for it, and pretty quickly he was rendered meaningless. He became the RB equivalent of Ted Ginn. A few big plays per year but otherwise unremarkable. When I said less than 3 YPC...it was more like 2.3 ypc or less. He was terrible in a lot of games. Basically, defenses adjusted to CJ2k and he had nothing more to use to beat defenses.
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33 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:
He didn’t fall. He was always overrated. Think about it. You’re the fastest player on the field. You get a giant hole opened up for you and now every carry is 20+ yards. It’s easy to rack up 2,000 yards like that. His issue was that he wasn’t a bell cow back who could get the tough yards. If there wasn’t a huge hole for him to get through, he was pretty useless. Once teams figured this out, he was easier to stop. Let’s hope Hines is even better than CJ2K as a pure runner.
Exactly....CJ2k didn't lose anything...teams just adjusted to his game and took away the big play. Once that happened, he became pedestrian. By 2011, when most teams had figured him out, he had 7 games where he rushed for less than 3 ypc. He had the occasional break out game but for the most part he was ineffective. The Colts perhaps more than any other team had his number. He had terrible games against the Colts.
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1 hour ago, Rackeen305 said:
Or you could totally dislike the pick/player. Have you even watched the kid play? If I could recall correctly, He had less than 200 snaps in college (fresh legs) and when he did hit the whole it was with Chris Johnson like speed to the 2nd level.
Is calling any player quick/fast as CJ2k impossible to you? Just say that and we all could move along.
Yep...seen him play. Don't like the pick. Not shifty, average vision, and not quick/fast enough to make a difference. I pointed out Ford and Spiller because they are much faster than Hines, but they had marginal impact in the NFL, and at least Spiller had more skills as a RB. Hines can only survive in the NFL as a speed back and frankly he's just not that fast.
I'll add that if you go back and watch Mack game tapes, he makes defenses take worse angles than Hines does. In other words, college players were able to adjust to Hines' speed more than Mack's. I suspect Hines will have a few big plays where defenses make mistakes, but he's going to have less of an impact than Tavon Austin, which is to say almost no impact.
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20 hours ago, Rackeen305 said:
He has Chris Johnson like speed. Hopefully, that translates to the NFL field.
Yeah...not exactly. Not to cut hairs, but he's more like Adrian Peterson speed without the moves. CJ Spiller was/is much faster...where's he? Jacoby Ford was/is much, much faster...where's he. I think people are blowing this guy's skills way out of proportion.
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He attended Cal for 2.5 years and was quietly and summarily dismissed from the team, even though he was arguably their most talented player. Not sure what happened there but it is rarely a good sign. Hopefully whatever issues he had back then are far behind him. He has alluded to some issues with the program, back then but has never described them and has admitted the dismissal was probably proper. Very mysterious.
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1 hour ago, bravo4460 said:
Rankings are just opinion but they are not wrong. Colts should be ranked last in the medias eyes. They didn't make splashy moves and drafted a guard with their #1 pick.
Colts with a healthy Andrew Luck are a 8-10 win team.
Without Andrew Luck a 3-5 win team. Ballard is attempting to make the Colts a 8-10 win team without having to need Andrew Luck. I believe he is doing a good job so far.
As of right now yes, Colts are probably #32
No way. Any one not impressed with the colts offseason are simply not knowledgeable about football. Shoring up the offensive line is THE most important thing you can do to produce wins. A solid OL gives your QB more time and not make hurried throws, it lets receivers run deeper more complex routes, it allows your running game to move the chains...all of which leads to more sustained drives, which in turn keeps the defense off the field and more rested. Everyone will perform better.
It's not like the Colts have no talent. With Luck and a solid offensive line, the Colts could threaten for a 10-win season or more. Vujnovich was so awful so often with his blocking that the left side of the line often collapsed. With AC, Nelson and Kelly, that should be a very solid and possibly elite blocking unit. Between Smith JM and Slauson, the RG and RT positions should be solid if not spectacular.
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Great pieces being assembled. I think people will be surprised by how much better the line gets just by the move made already. When players on the o-line know they can trust the player next to them, they get better at focusing on their own assignments.
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8 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:
Having the skill set of Mack, Wilkins and Hines is a good thing.
With that said I don't understand why some feel the need to say that one is better than the other. They all bring different skills to the Colts. Having all three is a positive thing so some putting into terms who is better or which one will have the most impact serves what purpose? Who really cares if all three can contribute and do the job that is ask of them?
It's up to the coaches now to put all three of them in the right situations to be successful. Why worry about who is better than who?
Just having fun here...my prediction is not about who will be better than who. My prediction is that Hines is about as much of an NFL player as James was. Inconsequential.
Hines Was A Definite Miss.....
in Colts Football
Posted
Well, if you don't understand the difference between fast and quick, and that the 40 measures quickness more than pure speed, I don't know how to help you. You're just misinformed. I have friends who ran D1 track and in multiple Olympics who were maybe 4.5 40 guys, but on the track were among the fastest runners in the world. They were fast, not necessarily quick. But they always beat the "quick" guys who got out of the blocks fast, but had lower top speed.
That said, your entire argument is based on a straw man. I said he's as fast as the DBs on the field, which is fast enough for a RB that has skills. In fact, there are plenty of 4.5 40 guys who get long TD runs every year. Speed is not the issue, as much as you want to make it that.
My point, which you ignored, is that speed without RB skills is fairly useless, Taiwan Jones being a prime example. Taiwan Jones crushed the competition in college, but he's done nothing in the NFL despite being measurably faster (and quicker) than Hines. Constantly referring to long runs Hines may have had in college doesn't bolster your argument any more. the talent at the NFL level is a huge jump...runs that might go for big yards in college get shut down in the pros. So, back at ya..terrible analysis friend.