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Indianapolis Colts

tfrugal

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Everything posted by tfrugal

  1. uh, maureen..... that aint a troll on your award.....its a pickadilly. you know the difference????? where is his right index finger??? unfortunately i have the set of three on my porch.
  2. thanks for the flowers lm. hope to type with you on the forum some time....
  3. i am wondering if i can put some cold hard numbers on what 'cant miss' means. odds of success if you will. i see two ways to do this, and a data set to check it on...maybe. suppose i look at the nfl and nba drafts in the past-- 1) how many 'cant miss' guys were annointed as such, and how did they do? 2) how many under the radar guys that became superstars are there? i know this still has 'squishy' part to it-- taking the familiar example of leaf and manning for example: do i call them both cant miss? or were there enough doubters on manning to say he was a suprise, not a cant miss? i think for my work, if they were 'obvious' number one picks, like leafy and manning were-- 1 and 1a if you will, i will prob call them 'cm'. maybe see if the word 'franchise' is used in talking about them..... it would be cool to have a minion that could do my legwork here-- find me a set of records from the past drafts and the 'scores' they had...... alas, no minions....unless i have any volunteers? polians last radio interview, he said he saw what, 4 cant missers? 2 qbs, a rb and someone else in this draft? toss all the 'cm' dudes in a pile, count the pile, and divide into 3 smaller piles-- guys that really were 'franchise', guys that were busts, and guys that were just good. i wonder what the number would be for the franchise guys? .500? .850?? .333? no way cant miss is 1.000, thus making it 'not quite cant miss' or 'usually cant miss'. would that number be any differnent between football and basketball? we could call it the manning to mandarich ratio-- m/m if you will. or do we prefer manning to leaf ratio? m/l. i think that might give us a way to at least handicap what luck (the player, not the fate!) might be. a way to price in the uncertainty of being franchise into our drafting. my gut impression is that there are a lot of leafs, mandariches, and odens not in that franchise pile. similarly, how many jordans and bradys are there? how often did the talent evade the scrutiny of 'those who know'?? neither of those guys were cant miss, were they? (or was jordan graded high enough to be a cant miss?, is there a source on how they were graded??). for that matter wasnt unitas completely under the radar? or can you widen it a bit, add in the freeneys and marinos too? i dont remember anyone liking freeney as a pick, and he has been franchise, no? so, i need to do some digging and see if i can do this....
  4. ok, heavy is the head that wears the crown. internal doubt about 'am i doing the right thing' is making me sweat.... 'cant miss' verses riding my hall of famer QB into the sunset, whats the right thing?? already in imaginary gm world there is tension and friction-- bob kravitz has just wrote a column saying i am ruining the franchise, and have dandruff too. grrrrrr. i want to scream at him for not knowing what the heck he is talking about..... peyton is 'rehabbing' in my office in a titans jersey, jeff fisher just called-- not ME, but peyton. manning shows me a text from that weasel saying 'remember buddy, i wore your jersey way back when!!, come play for me when that dummy gm lets you walk'. grrrrrr polian just sent me a pic of him sitting on a beach wearing nothing but bermuda shorts, flip flops, and holding a sign that says 'antacids in the left hand drawer'....its that a tattoo on his belly?? danny snyder just offered 'half a ham sammich' for either that pick, or manning-- my choice. i think its time to take a break, so i walk out to the car to take a spin-- sitting in a drivethrough lane waiting on my NON ham sammich and some homeless dude starts cleaning my windshield. wait-- ITS REGGIE WAYNE. he just smeared it allllll up. the kid in the drive-thru window starts telling me i am an dipstick, spits on my non ham sammich. everyone is chanting 'REGGIE REGGIE REGGIE'. reggie leans in, whispers 'i want my two dollars' and then spray paints a big green 'U' on the car door. heavy is the head that wears the crown.
  5. maureen, sorry, but i am old and not too computer savvy...and have never blogged before (unless it came out when i sneezed)... did i manage to tag it right? i
  6. that's fear, uncertainty and doubt, a term used in stock picking circles about trying to extract something useful from what someone (say a competitor to your fave stock) says on record. 'its got warts' might be what the competitor says about your product-- when he cant compete on performance or price. all sorts of verbage out here from manning, irsay, polian for example-- is it all just hot air, or are there nuggets we can use? since i dont have real insider info, i have to sift all the stuff said by insiders (not reporters) for input. a real gm would be watching manning rehab, all i get is what i read about it. extracting useful from all the schlock is an art, not a science. a few examples: not so long ago, the story was manning had 'scripted plays' after practice. we all read about it. remember the 'game ready balls' nugget from addai (i think it was him), and to the medium length passes admitted to? recently manning is on record saying he thought he might pass that physical. i read that as he IS healing, and is on track to be back next season. i might be flat out wrong, but i dont think they can flat out lie about stuff like this. if peyton went out there and tossed a series of girly-wounded ducks-- we would have heard something more along the lines of 'he is progressing'.....and addai would not have said a word. same with a lot of the stuff irsay and polian said about the draft. i dont think polian EVER telegraphed his intentions-- in fact, he always misdirected in the past. its smart to NOT telegraph your intentions this way. you just cant play poker with mirrored sunglasses on and keep your chips. 'rebuilding' does not mean we are drafting luck. it is a signal to the other teams we very well might, putting a potential premium on any bid for the pick. we DONT want to be predictable. got to max our options. right now, the colts are in a bind-- manning or luck? having both on the team has serious cap problems, and does nothing for filling holes in the team. if we dump manning (pretty much cant trade him due to the cap either) and he is healthy, we DONT control where he goes, and we get nada for him. remember the story about peyton telling the colts if we did not draft him, he would kick our butts for a decade? you really want to see him in say, a titans uniform lighting us up for the next 3 or four years, twice a year?? smirking as he trots off the field to cheers from BOTH sets of fans while luck gets booed? half the stadium wearing wrong colored 18 jerseys, the other half wearing the right color?? add in a few 'laser rocket arm' commercials on the jumbo tron.... 'just rub some dirt on it'. no. i doubt i keep my gm job long under that scenario. might well get tarred and feathered and ran out on a rail. if peyton is healthy, i have to keep him here. the other teams know that. what i want is a blockbuster offer for the pick. walker to the vikes, williams to the saints blockbuster. something too good to pass up. irsay, all my staff are going to CONTINUE the party line that drafting luck is the plan-- because thats the best way to push the value just a little bit higher. so, my basic assumption here is peyton regains his form.... if he has not already. if he isnt, then luck is my pick. otherwise i want the motherlode for that pick.
  7. ok, so i am the new gm of the colts.....bet this pays better than the old job does!! first, some boilerplate-- i dont have access to real game film, or true insider info. i will use (for now) cbs sportline as my database for my evaluation of potential players, because 1) i already read a lot there, and 2) the colts play on cbs. i have followed a lot of the conversations in the forum for a few years. certain posters have a lot of credibility in my view, and i wiil shamelessly steal from them every chance i get. i see the world thru fan-colored glasses. my experience with 'management' over the years has been that these guys are heartless. new management typically means that i have to fire the first guy on the old crew that looks at me wrong-- just to show my power-- never mind the guy had a legit point. this is NOT what i want to do-- replace the old-boy network with a new-boy one. current players and anyone in the org keep their positions unless i can improve on them. we run a merit shop here boys. i liked polian. i will steal from him every chance i get. 'past is prologue' indeed! we still are gonna play very similar defenses, the cap means i cant have it all, and manning or luck, i am committed to spending more on 'O' so its a 4/3 D. we will be talking to the local media (except bob kravitz-- just because).
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