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Indianapolis Colts

Dustin

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Posts posted by Dustin


  1. 23 minutes ago, csmopar said:

     

     

     

    Oh good grief. Obviously none of you have ever played sports where you had a rival. I thought it was hilarious. 

     

    I was 100% being sarcastic btw

    • Like 2

  2. 2 minutes ago, ar7 said:

     

    Ballard just mentioned in his press conference that he liked picking up a future 2nd.

     

    You better send him this article quick. I don't know where he came up with his logic for assessing the trade value of draft picks but it must not be Pats Pulpit. He needs to understand how to properly value these future draft picks before another trade like the one made tonight is made.

     

    Not an argument. 


  3. Just now, stitches said:

    Why would you devalue the future pick BY HALF? wth? This makes no sense. I devalued it the most it could be devalued - assumed it's the WORST possible pick... and it still gives us great value. 

     

    https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

     

    "In other words, a team could trade a fourth round pick in 2017 and reasonably expect to receive a 2018 third round pick on the market. A current fifth is worth a future fourth. No one really wants future seventh round picks because they hold almost no value.

    This valuation of future picks is a representation of time value of money, which means that a draft pick now is worth more than the same draft pick in a future year."

     

    What do I win


  4. 1 minute ago, stitches said:

    This is nonesese. Yes, it could be 64.... or it could be 33!!! This is not how you make evaluations. You have some probability distribution and you get an expected value out of it. Especially with the Redskins probably starting a rookie QB, this trade is more likely to give us a pick closer to 33 than to 64. 

     

    Also, find me a single trade chart that gives us worse value than what the Redskins got. You won't find one. Even the most outdated ones that overvalue higher picks and undervalue number of picks return worse value. Even if you take the worst chart for my argument(Jimmy Johnson's chart) AND assume worst case scenario(we get 64), we still come ahead 10 points, which is equivalent of a 6th round pick... This is WORST case scenario on the WORST chart for my argument. 

     

    Any trade chart when you devalue the future pick by half


  5. 3 minutes ago, stitches said:

    Or it could be 20 spots lower?

     

    Doesn't matter... you make probability evaluation. Even if you assume somehow the Redskins win the Superbowl and we get 64th pick the value is still good. 

     

    Yeah it could be 20 spots lower. The fact that you have no idea what pick it is is why its devalued vs current picks. 

     

    And no if the Redskins won the Super Bowl it wouldn't be good value lol. You'd move back 20 spots and lose out on a 5th year option for what is essentially a 3rd rounder. 

     

     


  6. 1 minute ago, Chloe6124 said:

    If that happens we can always trade and move up.

     

    I guess? I dont know what your getting at.

     

    My point is that future picks are volatile because of how fast things change in the NFL. I mean it's not like the Redskins were some dumpster fire last year they picked in the middle of the first and just got the best QB in the draft. They can just as easily go 11-5 as they could 5-11.

    • Like 1
    • Confused 1

  7. 1 minute ago, stitches said:

    THIS is one of the most outdated views on the draft. There is nothing value-wise that should make a future pick worth less than a current year's pick. 

     

    Except for the fact that a future pick could be like 20 spots higher than the ones they have this year? Lol


  8. Just now, CR91 said:

     

    even if thats the case, the redskins are playing with a rookie QB with no weapons and a subpar defense. I can't see them having much success this year

     

    Or they can make the playoffs and all of a sudden the picks in high 50s or 60s. This is the NFL man things change fast. 

     

    Probably should have gotten a 4th back with this

    • Like 2

  9. Just now, CR91 said:

     

    And how did you come up with that logic? Do you really see the redskins making the playoffs or winning more then 8 games?

     

    I didnt make it up. Future picks are devalued a full round according to the draft chart or the value is cut in half. But w/e it's not end of the world there's still gonna be good players at 34

    • Like 1
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