[JMV having traces of doubt in his opinion on this situation]

I dont know if I'd go so far as to say "faking it", but I believe there's more to this mysterious calf injury then we're led to believe. 

[Why Boo [Merge]]

It's just booing. Nobody died. 

 

[Luck Retires/ The timing of it all... (merge)]

Cant wait for the 30 for 30 tbqh

[LOL Reggie Wayne]

23 minutes ago, csmopar said:

 

 

 

Oh good grief. Obviously none of you have ever played sports where you had a rival. I thought it was hilarious. 

 

I was 100% being sarcastic btw

[LOL Reggie Wayne]

Just now, NewColtsFan said:

Ugh!   Awful.  

 

Sorry that happened.    Wish it hadn’t. 

 

Same havent Titans fans suffered enough?

[Colts trade out of first round]

Just now, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

You're an argument.

 

whew lad

[Colts trade out of first round]

2 minutes ago, ar7 said:

 

Ballard just mentioned in his press conference that he liked picking up a future 2nd.

 

You better send him this article quick. I don't know where he came up with his logic for assessing the trade value of draft picks but it must not be Pats Pulpit. He needs to understand how to properly value these future draft picks before another trade like the one made tonight is made.

 

Not an argument. 

[Colts trade out of first round]

9 minutes ago, stitches said:

You win nothing. This is the same nonsense that I just debunked. It makes ZERO sense to value future picks more than current ones. Just ASSERTING it doesn't make it so. 

 

Okay

[Colts trade out of first round]

6 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

The Pats pulpit is your reference?  You aren’t even pretending to be a Colts fan. 

 

You got me man

[Colts trade out of first round]

Just now, stitches said:

Why would you devalue the future pick BY HALF? wth? This makes no sense. I devalued it the most it could be devalued - assumed it's the WORST possible pick... and it still gives us great value. 

 

https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

 

"In other words, a team could trade a fourth round pick in 2017 and reasonably expect to receive a 2018 third round pick on the market. A current fifth is worth a future fourth. No one really wants future seventh round picks because they hold almost no value.

This valuation of future picks is a representation of time value of money, which means that a draft pick now is worth more than the same draft pick in a future year."

 

What do I win

[Colts trade out of first round]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

This is nonesese. Yes, it could be 64.... or it could be 33!!! This is not how you make evaluations. You have some probability distribution and you get an expected value out of it. Especially with the Redskins probably starting a rookie QB, this trade is more likely to give us a pick closer to 33 than to 64. 

 

Also, find me a single trade chart that gives us worse value than what the Redskins got. You won't find one. Even the most outdated ones that overvalue higher picks and undervalue number of picks return worse value. Even if you take the worst chart for my argument(Jimmy Johnson's chart) AND assume worst case scenario(we get 64), we still come ahead 10 points, which is equivalent of a 6th round pick... This is WORST case scenario on the WORST chart for my argument. 

 

Any trade chart when you devalue the future pick by half

[Colts trade out of first round]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

Or it could be 20 spots lower?

 

Doesn't matter... you make probability evaluation. Even if you assume somehow the Redskins win the Superbowl and we get 64th pick the value is still good. 

 

Yeah it could be 20 spots lower. The fact that you have no idea what pick it is is why its devalued vs current picks. 

 

And no if the Redskins won the Super Bowl it wouldn't be good value lol. You'd move back 20 spots and lose out on a 5th year option for what is essentially a 3rd rounder. 

 

 

[Colts trade out of first round]

1 minute ago, Chloe6124 said:

If that happens we can always trade and move up.

 

I guess? I dont know what your getting at.

 

My point is that future picks are volatile because of how fast things change in the NFL. I mean it's not like the Redskins were some dumpster fire last year they picked in the middle of the first and just got the best QB in the draft. They can just as easily go 11-5 as they could 5-11.

[Colts trade out of first round]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

THIS is one of the most outdated views on the draft. There is nothing value-wise that should make a future pick worth less than a current year's pick. 

 

Except for the fact that a future pick could be like 20 spots higher than the ones they have this year? Lol

[Colts trade out of first round]

Just now, CR91 said:

 

even if thats the case, the redskins are playing with a rookie QB with no weapons and a subpar defense. I can't see them having much success this year

 

Or they can make the playoffs and all of a sudden the picks in high 50s or 60s. This is the NFL man things change fast. 

 

Probably should have gotten a 4th back with this

[Colts trade out of first round]

Just now, CR91 said:

 

And how did you come up with that logic? Do you really see the redskins making the playoffs or winning more then 8 games?

 

I didnt make it up. Future picks are devalued a full round according to the draft chart or the value is cut in half. But w/e it's not end of the world there's still gonna be good players at 34

[Colts trade out of first round]

Just now, James said:

 

Nonsense.

 

 

 

Trade chart is outdated by about 10 years now. Also a future 2nd is valued as a 3rd rounder not a 2nd

[Colts trade out of first round]

Wow what terrible value

[Colts are signing Justin Houston [Merge]]

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I've liked most of Ballard's signings in the past, but this one seems a bit pricey. 

 

I don't know.  I haven't watched KC that much to tell how much Houston has left in the tank.  At that price, I hope we won't think Trent Cole by mid season.

 

12m is a bargain for what edge rushers go for these days tnh. I think this is probably right in line with his value if he can manage 8-12 sacks

[Chris Ballard at the Half-way Point (and Beyond)]

Idk how people are factoring in his drafts into his evaluation. We gotta wait 3 years before we can judge a draft class right guys?

[Final Play Call]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I hate losing but eventhough we are 1-3 I have enjoyed this season so far. Maybe I am losing my mind 

 

I've enjoyed it too. Anybody expecting playoffs this year set themselves up for dissapointment from the start. 

 

We have some quality building blocks. This team could be a super bowl contender in a few seasons

[All of these first 4 games have been close]

A few more playmakers on offense and this team could be a force next season. 

[Final Play Call]

14 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

  You have a loser's mentality for this season.  I doubt the players have already written it off.  I would be playing to make the playoffs.  Therefore you take the smart tact and take the tie.  Once eliminated take all the chances you want. 

 

I doubt they've written it off too. Just like I doubt they wanted to settle for a tie. 

 

Theres no more Pagano-ball and I'm living for it. 

[Final Play Call]

5 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

You play to make the playoffs.   A loss certainly doesn't help us get there but a tie might.  Pretty simple math really.  A tie is the next best thing to a victory. 

 

The Colts gave up 34 points at home to team on a 10 game losing streak. They aren't gonna make the playoffs sorry to break it to ya bud. The difference between a tie and a loss isn't going to matter to the 2018 Colts

[Final Play Call]

Ballsy call. Playing for a tie is a loser mentality. You play to win the game. Like someone else said earlier, Reich is going to take some heat but its a move thats going to pay off for a you g team. 

 

Everybody wants agression but not the risks associated with it.