rsrobinson
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Posts posted by rsrobinson
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Minny was missing some key defensive players the first time so I expect a closer game. They need a big game from Peterson, though, and the Seahawks defense is very tough to run on. If they bottle him up and the Vikings have to rely on Bridgewater they're in trouble. He looked totally overmatched against the Seattle D in the first game.
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I think the Steelers beat the Bengals whether it's McCarron or Dalton. One and done in Cincy again.
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Fisher is terribly overrated. His teams are consistently among the dirtiest in the league as well.
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3 hours ago, amfootball said:
Yes and complete 64 percent of those passes. And those stats take into account all of Cam's rushing yards and still Brady is accounting for more of the Pats yards than Cam is for the Panthers or Palmer for the Cards.
Brady's had a great season. I'm not sure why he's not getting more support for MVP. Cam is having his best season by far but Carolina has also played a pretty weak schedule. Their signature win was in Seattle, a game the Seahawks were in control for 3 1/2 quarters. Give them props for the comeback but I think Carolina is a very beatable team in the playoffs.
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Yeah, I think it's probably Cam's award to lose now although I think Carson Palmer has had a better season.
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For most teams it don`t last forever. And a over-hyped QB has been exposed as nothing more than a decent game manager.
Hilarious. Russell Wilson just game managed for 345 yards passing and 5 TDs.
He's currently on pace for 4000 yards passing and 600 yards rushing and has a 102.9 qb rating. He's arguably having his best season and he's been doing it behind a crap OL and without Marshawn Lynch.
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Luck may well be playing hurt but that's helped unmask some serious deficiencies in his game - primarily his poor decision making - that have always been there. At this point in his career Matt Hasselbeck has far less arm strength than even an injured Andrew Luck, but he played better than Luck has this year because of his ability to read defenses and get the ball out quickly. Luck doesn't do either of those things well so if he isn't 100% he looks like a very bad QB.
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Luck is both great and very overrated, depending on what part of the game you're watching him play. He's one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks I've ever seen play in the NFL. How many times, even in earlier seasons, has Luck put the Colts in a deep hole early with poor play and bad interceptions only to get hot later to try to dig them out? You can't do that in this league and be considered a great quarterback.
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While true, teams have to evaluate Wilson's style of evasion. Believe me, he can be stopped, and at the very least slowed down. The NFL is a tremendously fast-paced game and all it takes is a marginally intelligent study of all his moves. He's very fast, shorter, and a gifted runner of evasion. Quick fixes are not considered beyond this. It takes practice. Lots of practice to prepare for him. It can be done and employed by all teams if they're willing to take the time and effort.
Ah, I see. It's fortunate for Wilson then that the NFL is filled with dumb, lazy DCs who don't have the marginal intelligence required to study Wilson's moves or bother to take the time and effort to properly prepare for him.
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I said he shredded the defense from the middle of the second quarter on. He passed for 247 yards and 2 TDs over that stretch. Most of the incompletions came early in the game. So, yes, he was shredding the Pats defense after his slow start.12 for 21 is shredding?
Wilson did not complete a pass until the second quarter. That has never happened in a SB before.
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Hey am. The Seahawks defense looks like its rounding back into form since Kam came back, but you saw the problems with the offense tonight. The o-line is a hot mess. They aren't opening holes in the running game and Wilson is under assault on nearly every passing play. Most of their success has come from Wilson's improvisational skills. If Tom Cable can improve them to become at least the mediocre unit they've been the past few seasons they should be alright. If not the offense will struggle to find any consistency.Hi rsrob! I am glad to see you back! I had posted a few times up here how much I have missed you and your break down of the Hawks.
You are right. Wilson was the best player on the field last night. How do you see the team shaping up with Kam back? Seems like the O is still really struggling as they can't seem to get Graham going although he had a few catches last night.
How about the division? The Cards look solid but the Rams seem pesky this year with wins over them and you guys. Too bad you did not play GB later this season with Kam back as it might have been different.
P.S. what are your thoughts on the play call in the SB? Do you blame Carroll, Bevell or do you think it was just poor execution?
That last play in the SB was all on Bevell. He's been unpopular for years in Seattle for his play calling and throwing a slant on the one yard line right into the heart of the defense to their worst receiver was insane. The Patriots defense was on their heels prior to that. There was no doubt in my mind that Lynch was going to score on the next play prior to that call.
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Even average LBs can wrap up, Wilson. The key is keeping him in front if you at all times while closing in. He's a shorter QB which requires practicing for this. It can be done. Trust me.
This is now the fourth straight season I've been reading this stuff on fan forums about how to stop Wilson and he still keeps making plays week in and week out. This year he's been playing behind a dreadful o-line without a healthy Marshawn Lynch and all he's done is complete 71% of his passes, produced nearly 290 yds per game of total offense running and passing, and has his qb rating around 100 like it always is. Of all the young guns from 2012 - Luck, RG3. Wilson, Kaepernick and Tannehill - he's the only one who has been playing at a high level this year.
Wilson got off to a slow start against NE in the Super Bowl but from the middle of the 2nd quarter on he shredded the Patriots defense right up until the final play.
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I see the Luck homers are out in force tonight trying to denigrate Russell Wilson. Wilson plays behind arguably the worst o-line in the league, had absolutely no pass protection or running game tonight, and still went 20-26, 287 yards, 1 TD, 0 ints, and had another 40 yard rushing. Wilson was their entire offense and he did most of it after the play broke down.
I like Luck but he's been hot garbage so far this year. Wilson has been better in every way.
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I don't see anything in Krafts statement saying anything but they think the penalty is excessive and he supports Brady. Of coarse they will appeal but where are you getting this idea that this will be the end of Goodall and the rest of this ?
I don't see where they have much of a case for appeal. The league used an independent investigator who filed a report finding Brady and the Patriots guilty based on the preponderance of the evidence. The league has the right to assign punishment based on that. As much as Goodell has screwed up other cases, I think he got this one about right.
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Since nobody did it according to Belichick's investigation I guess we should call this the Immaculate Deflation.
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Brady threw for almost 400 yards on them two years ago ... and lost by a point. And he didn't have anywhere near as good defense then as he does now.
So your basing your hopes on a game played nearly three full seasons ago? Both teams have had at least a third of their rosters overturned since then, the Seahawks defense was still young and learning to play together, it took Brady 58 attempts to gain 395 yards and he threw two bad picks, Brady's receiving corps of Welker, Hernandez, Gronk, and Lloyd was much better than he has today, it was only Russell Wilson's sixth NFL start and he outplayed Brady, and the Patriots lost the game.
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Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders has a piece in ESPN Insiders comparing Russell Wilson to a young Tom Brady in his first three seasons as a starter and uses advanced metrics to make the case that Wilson has been better so far. Here are a couple of excerpts: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/12213602/super-bowl-xlix-why-russell-wilson-looks-better-version-early-tom-brady (Most of it is behind a pay wall)
Thanks to Wilson's rushing value, his statistics are better than those produced by Brady in his first three years as a starter. Wilson had a 100.0 passer rating as a rookie, which ranked fourth in 2012; Brady did not have a season like that until his eighth in the league. Adjusting for opponent and the less pass-crazed period of 2001-03 paints a rosier picture for Brady.
In Football Outsiders' key metrics, Wilson's average passing season ranks 10.3 in DVOA (value per play) and 10.3 in DYAR (total value). Sure enough, the 2001-03 version of Brady averaged rankings of 10.3 in DVOA and 10.3 in DYAR, too. Today's group of quarterbacks is a stronger bunch with better numbers, so it is harder to stand out. In 2014, Wilson rushed for 284 DYAR, the most by any quarterback in a season since at least 1989. Against the St. Louis Rams, Wilson had the first game in NFL history with at least 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing.
Quarterbacks always get too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses, but consider the data at Advanced Football Analytics. Wilson has averaged 0.17 win probability added (WPA) per game. The 2001-03 Brady averaged 0.10 WPA per game, so Wilson has been more statistically involved in his team's success.
Obviously we don't know if Wilson will continue to improve at the level that Brady has over the years but he does compare very favorably so far to Brady's first three years as a starter and he might be the first QB since Brady to win back to back rings.Another thing that stands out about Wilson's crunch-time record is that it includes all 13 losses in his career. Dating back to his days at NC State, Wilson just does not get blown out. He has either led or been within one score in the fourth quarter of his past 82 games, including all 55 with Seattle. He has had a lead in all 55 of his NFL games, which is another NFL record. Seattle's 12-point fourth-quarter comeback against Green Bay was the largest ever in a championship game. Even on what looked like his worst day, Wilson played outstanding when it was most necessary.
Quarterbacks do not have a clutch gene, but they all have a clutch history, and those moments often tend to go well or disastrously. So far, Wilson's have gone very well, and he compares favorably to the Brady of today, who has long been the gold standard in that area, with a career record of 46-31 (.597) in GWD opportunities.
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The 2011 Giants defense gave up 400 points and they had to win their last two games to win the weak NFC East at 9-7. They averaged 3.5 yards per carry and their top back had less than 700 yards rushing. They were a pretty crappy team for most of the year but they managed to get hot and beat the 15-1 Packers, 13-3 49ers, and 13-3 Patriots in the playoffs somehow so give them credit. Overall they weren't a very good team, though, and they haven't been back to the playoffs since.Yes, Westbrook was the starting RB... I don't recall the Giants defense and running game in 2011 being as bad as you describe. That was JPP's rookie year, no? I think the Giants playoff run may have erased their regular season from my memory.
I like Wilson a lot but he needs a #1 receiver. Are you satisfied with the receiving corps?
I will be rooting for Seattle next week.
Yeah, the Seahawks definitely need to upgrade the WR corps. Rookie Paul Richardson was really coming on at the end of the year so losing him to an ACL injury was a blow. Upgrading at WR and OL should be a priority in the offseason.
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The Eagles offense was ranked roughly the same as the Seahawks in ppg and total yards compared to the rest of their leagues. I know those are fairly simplistic measures but I don't feel like going much more in depth than that at the moment. Their top RB was Brian Westbrook who was a decent back and a very good receiver. McNabb had a very good season that year and had better overall passing numbers than Wilson but far fewer running yards. Overall Wilson and McNabb produced about the same total yards. The Eagles had a better passing game but Seattle has a much better run game and I don't see much difference between them in overall offensive efficiency.I liked the Eagles team. I believe McNabb was better at that point in his career than Wilson is now, despite Wilson's having won the SB. The Eagles WR corp was better. I am drawing a blank as to who the RB was. I may also take Eli over Wilson, but not by much. The Giants WRs were significantly better than the Seahawks WRs. There is no WR on the 'hawks that comes near the caliber of Plaxico Burress on the current Seahawks team. All of this is only my opinion. I don't have stats to back these up.
The 2007 Giants had a very mediocre offense and Eli Manning was terrible most of the year finishing with 20 picks and a 73.9 passer rating. If anything the 2011 Giants were even worse. Manning had a much better season but they had no running game and their defense stunk. Those are two of the most mediocre teams to ever win a Super Bowl and the Patriots should be embarrassed by losing to them.
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How were Brady's numbers in those games?
Very good, but do you think that translates to how well he'll do against Seattle's defense which has had a lot of success against top tier passing attacks? Over the last three years they are 10-0 against Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and have surrendered just 13.8 ppg to them.
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I would take Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch over Jake Delhomme and Stephen Davis. I agree with you about Seattle's receivers, but that tells me that Wilson is better than he is being given credit for.
Actually none of them could legitimately be considered superior to the Seahawks offense other than the Rams' Greatest Show on Turf. The Panthers and the 2007 Giants were worse by just about every measure. The 2011 Giants and the Eagles had relatively similar rankings in ppg and total yards but neither had a running game that could remotely match Seattle's. The Seahawks' defense is easily the best Brady has ever faced in a SB.
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Seattle defense is an animal. Hope the injuries are healed.
Sherman has been practicing with no limitations. Thomas sat out a couple of practices but is back now. Both will play.
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Check Brady's numbers when he had played top 10 DVOA defenses this year.
I am sorry you can spin numbers all you want but this Hawks team is nowhere as good offensively as the other teams the Pats have played in the SB. Even the lousy Eagles had Terrell Owens on one leg who is better than your whole receiver corp combined. Lynch is a beast but that is about it.
Considering that Brady played against top 10 DVOA defenses only three times all season (I'm not counting the last Bills game which was a glorified exhibition game) that's a pretty small sample size isn't it? Meanwhile the Seahawks played half their regular season games against top 10 DVOA defenses so I doubt there's anything NE's defense can show them they haven't seen before from better defenses.
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Did you notice who was number two on the list of QBs that get the most help? Joe Flacco. No surprise there.
I believe in this Super Bowl you are going to see the Pats absolutely bottle up this Seattle O. This is by FAR the worse offense they have ever faced in the Super Bowl in their six trips in the Brady era. NE's defense is better than GB and we can play Wilson the way the Packers did except we won't let up at the end. You got a glimpse in the conference champ game at just how bad he can be when Lynch is contained and you man up his receivers.
In fairness to Wilson though, he has junk at every position other than RB. So I will give him credit there. How he scores as many points as he does especially this season with no Tate and Harvin traded is impressive. But it all runs out on the 1st.
Worst offense by far? The Seahawks finished 10th in points scored, 9th in total yards, and had the best running attack in the NFL by a wide margin. Russell Wilson's rushing numbers alone would have made him the leading rusher on half the teams in the league. He also has a career passer rating of 98.6 so he will beat you with the pass if you stack the box. The Seahawks offense led the NFL in explosive plays this year (runs of 12+ yards, passes of 16+ yards) so they aren't a dink and dunk, three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust offense. They can and do pick up yardage in large chunks. Football Outsiders ranked them as the 5th most efficient offense in the league by DVOA ahead of the Patriots at 6th.
By any measure the Seahawks are a top ten offense and they did it while facing tough, physical defenses more frequently than the Pats did. FO has the Patriots defense ranked 11th by DVOA which is pretty good but puts them behind every defense in the NFC West. I'm not sure why you think they will be an impenetrable force the likes of which Seattle has never seen before.
And the Packers did nothing on defense they hadn't seen many times, they just uncharacteristically turned the ball over and executed poorly for much of the game. Even so, they STILL ended up with more passing yards, more rushing yards, more first downs, and more touchdowns than the Packers. Also be careful about pinning your hopes on manning up the receivers because Wilson tends to run wild on man coverage. And don't tell me that the Pats will handle that by putting a spy on Wilson because everyone does that and he still ran for almost 900 yards. Spying him and actually containing him are two different things.
Which 1-3 teams will make the playoffs
in NFL General
Posted
The Panthers are in a weak division and the Falcons play the Broncos and Seahawks on the road the next two weeks which could bring them back down to earth. I'd still bet on Carolina to win the division.
Arizona does not play in a weak division and if they don't beat the Niners tonight with Palmer out they're in real trouble.