Why Have The Colts Failed In Drafting 1St Rounders Recently? A Simple Analysis Of Their Drafting History....

[Mouthfire]

The question is often brought up: Why have the Colts failed so frequently in the recent past when drafting 1st rounders? It seemed like the Colts front office had the "magic touch" when drafting earlier on in Peyton's career. But for the past half-decade, they've barely hit at all.

To me, it's readily apparent when looking at the Colts draft history. I classified the Colt's picks as either "hits" or "misses". Please note: this quick analysis only looks at what they've done in the 1st round. It doesn't take into account all of the "hits" they've made in the later rounds, which was quite frequent. I also didn't take into account 2nd round picks Tony Ugoh, who you might argue was a 1st round pick, and Bob Sanders/Mike Pollack, who were the first picks their years. I also only took into account the years since Marvin Harrison was drafted, since the players drafted afterwards accounted for the foundation of the Colts in the Peyton Manning years.

1996 (HIT) Marvin Harrison - 19th overall

1997 (HIT) Tarik Glenn - 19th overall

1998 (HIT) Peyton Manning - 1st overall

1999 (HIT) Edgerrin James - 4th overall

2000 (MISS) Rob Morris - 28th overall

2001 (HIT) Reggie Wayne - 30th overall

2002 (HIT) Dwight Freeney - 11th overall

2003 (HIT) Dallas Clark - 24rd overall

2004 - No first round pick

2005 (MISS) Marlin Jackson - 29th overall

2006 (HIT) Joseph Addai - 30th overall

2007 (MISS) Anthony Gonzales - 32nd overall

2008 - No first round pick

2009 (MISS) Donald Brown - 27th overall

2010 (MISS) Jerry Hughes - 31st overall

2011 (HIT) Anthony Castonzo - 22nd overall

Looking at the list above, a few trends do emerge. First, the Colts did "hit" a lot more frequently in the earlier years than later. And second (and more importantly), all of the "misses" were late 1st round picks.

Separating the picks into approximately the 1st two-thirds (i.e. picks 1-24) and the last one-third of the round (i.e. picks 25-32), the picks look like this:

Earlier picks (picks 1-24):

1996 (HIT) Marvin Harrison - 19th overall

1997 (HIT) Tarik Glenn - 19th overall

1998 (HIT) Peyton Manning - 1st overall

1999 (HIT) Edgerrin James - 4th overall

2002 (HIT) Dwight Freeney - 11th overall

2003 (HIT) Dallas Clark - 24rd overall

2011 (HIT) Anthony Castonzo - 22nd overall

Later picks (picks 25-32):

2000 (MISS) Rob Morris - 28th overall

2001 (HIT) Reggie Wayne - 30th overall

2005 (MISS) Marlin Jackson - 29th overall

2006 (HIT) Joseph Addai - 30th overall

2007 (MISS) Anthony Gonzales - 32nd overall

2009 (MISS) Donald Brown - 27th overall

2010 (MISS) Jerry Hughes - 31st overall

So, for the Colts, the "magic number" seems to be about pick 22-24. When picking at 24 or earlier, they hit on 100% (7/7) of their picks. When picking later than that, they only hit on 28% (2/7) of their picks. In fact, all of their "misses" occurred when picking from the last 6 picks of the 1st round.

What that suggests to me is that the Colts front office is absolutely remarkable about choosing the correct player, when they have an adequate selection to choose from. When they're stuck picking from the "left overs" in the 1st round, they don't do so well. It's particularly telling that the first 1st rounder they've "hit" on in a really long time is last year's pick, Anthony Castonzo, which only happened because the Colts picked at 22, which is a lot earlier than in previous years.

[Mouthfire]

Also, please note that this is a very quick, rough analysis of their drafting history. There's probably a more robust way of doing the analysis, but I'm not a statistician.... ;)

[bavanlan]

I think Morris should get an incomplete. He was drafted for one system and then had the rug pulled out from under him and switched to a different system two years later that did not fit his abilities.

When he was on the field, particularly during his resurgence during our SB year at SAM, he was quite competent.

Edited October 27, 2011 by bavanlan

[chad72]

I think Morris should get an incomplete. He was drafted for one system and then had the rug pulled out from under him and switched to a different system two years later that did not fit his abilities.

When he was on the field, particularly during his resurgence during our SB year at SAM, he was quite competent.

I would add Marlin Jackson to the list of non-misses. Marlin Jackson was great at providing run support from the nickel and the fact that our DT position was never consistently good (due to luck or lack of drafted depth) led to him taking more FBs/TEs/OLs on and did contribute to his injury history, IMO. When healthy, he produced real well. Same with Gonzo, IMO - produced well when healthy. But 3 unhealthy years out of 5 would end up being bad if he cannot have a resurgence this year.

Gonzo was drafted to replace Harrison, Brown to replace Addai and Hughes to replace Mathis/Freeney.

Brown and Hughes are the ones who have been mostly healthy but ineffective more than not when healthy.

Edited October 27, 2011 by chad72

[Mouthfire]

I think Morris should get an incomplete. He was drafted for one system and then had the rug pulled out from under him and switched to a different system two years later that did not fit his abilities.

When he was on the field, particularly during his resurgence during our SB year at SAM, he was quite competent.

Yes, that's true. I'll assert, though, that he only panned out for a short stretch of a few games in the post-season. But again, an incomplete would be reasonable.

[GoDeep]

I would add Marlin Jackson to the list of non-misses. Marlin Jackson was great at providing run support from the nickel and the fact that our DT position was never consistently good (due to luck or lack of drafted depth) led to him taking more FBs/TEs/OLs on and did contribute to his injury history, IMO. When healthy, he produced real well. Same with Gonzo, IMO - produced well when healthy. But 3 unhealthy years out of 5 would end up being bad if he cannot have a resurgence this year.

Gonzo was drafted to replace Harrison, Brown to replace Addai and Hughes to replace Mathis/Freeney.

Brown and Hughes are the ones who have been mostly healthy but ineffective more than not when healthy.

And didn't Marlin fill in at safety some too?

[oldunclemark]

Too soon to judge the last 3

[John Waylon]

To be fair, Tony Ugoh should be listed as a 1st because we spent a 1st to get him.

And I totally agree with Bav. We didn't exactly play to Rob Morris' strengths long enough to make him a great LB, even though it's a crime that he didn't become one.

[oldunclemark]

We did draft Angerer, Conner Collie, MAfee and Garcon...and now Carter..who looks decent

Not first round but drafting is drafting....

[Mouthfire]

Too soon to judge the last 3

To some degree, yes. I've always been a Donald Brown supporter, but I think this year will be a fair indication of his true value to this team, since it is his 3rd year.

Hughes, yes. Probably deserves at least another year.

Castanzo already looks promising. I think a "hit" would be reasonable for him at this point.

[GoDeep]

Too soon to judge the last 3

No, Brown sucks, generally.

[Mouthfire]

We did draft Angerer, Conner Collie, MAfee and Garcon...and now Carter..who looks decent

Not first round but drafting is drafting....

Yes, and that was one caveat that I mentioned: only 1st rounders taken into account above.

[oldunclemark]

No, Brown sucks, generally.

DEEP...

Donalnd Brown leads us in average per carry (5.5) by a large margin......and we're a mere 4 games out of first place :whiteflag:

[Mouthfire]

I would add Marlin Jackson to the list of non-misses. Marlin Jackson was great at providing run support from the nickel and the fact that our DT position was never consistently good (due to luck or lack of drafted depth) led to him taking more FBs/TEs/OLs on and did contribute to his injury history, IMO. When healthy, he produced real well. Same with Gonzo, IMO - produced well when healthy. But 3 unhealthy years out of 5 would end up being bad if he cannot have a resurgence this year.

Gonzo was drafted to replace Harrison, Brown to replace Addai and Hughes to replace Mathis/Freeney.

Brown and Hughes are the ones who have been mostly healthy but ineffective more than not when healthy.

I would still (at least in my mind) keep Marlin Jackson as a miss. I guess it all depends on what level of success you want to count as a "hit". To me, although Marlin had some value, he doesn't typically come to mind when you think about the "great picks" that the Colts have made in the past, certainly not on the level of Clark/Wayne/Addai, who were all picked in the same vicinity of the 1st round.

I guess I'll just leave that point up for debate.... the deciding point, I would assert, is whether Marlin Jackson was worth a 1st round pick.

Edited October 27, 2011 by Mouthfire

[dn4192]

The question is often brought up: Why have the Colts failed so frequently in the recent past when drafting 1st rounders? It seemed like the Colts front office had the "magic touch" when drafting earlier on in Peyton's career. But for the past half-decade, they've barely hit at all.

To me, it's readily apparent when looking at the Colts draft history. I classified the Colt's picks as either "hits" or "misses". Please note: this quick analysis only looks at what they've done in the 1st round. It doesn't take into account all of the "hits" they've made in the later rounds, which was quite frequent. I also didn't take into account 2nd round picks Tony Ugoh, who you might argue was a 1st round pick, and Bob Sanders/Mike Pollack, who were the first picks their years. I also only took into account the years since Marvin Harrison was drafted, since the players drafted afterwards accounted for the foundation of the Colts in the Peyton Manning years.

1996 (HIT) Marvin Harrison - 19th overall

1997 (HIT) Tarik Glenn - 19th overall

1998 (HIT) Peyton Manning - 1st overall

1999 (HIT) Edgerrin James - 4th overall

2000 (MISS) Rob Morris - 28th overall

2001 (HIT) Reggie Wayne - 30th overall

2002 (HIT) Dwight Freeney - 11th overall

2003 (HIT) Dallas Clark - 24rd overall

2004 - No first round pick

2005 (MISS) Marlin Jackson - 29th overall

2006 (HIT) Joseph Addai - 30th overall

2007 (MISS) Anthony Gonzales - 32nd overall

2008 - No first round pick

2009 (MISS) Donald Brown - 27th overall

2010 (MISS) Jerry Hughes - 31st overall

2011 (HIT) Anthony Castonzo - 22nd overall

Looking at the list above, a few trends do emerge. First, the Colts did "hit" a lot more frequently in the earlier years than later. And second (and more importantly), all of the "misses" were late 1st round picks.

Separating the picks into approximately the 1st two-thirds (i.e. picks 1-24) and the last one-third of the round (i.e. picks 25-32), the picks look like this:

Earlier picks (picks 1-24):

1996 (HIT) Marvin Harrison - 19th overall

1997 (HIT) Tarik Glenn - 19th overall

1998 (HIT) Peyton Manning - 1st overall

1999 (HIT) Edgerrin James - 4th overall

2002 (HIT) Dwight Freeney - 11th overall

2003 (HIT) Dallas Clark - 24rd overall

2011 (HIT) Anthony Castonzo - 22nd overall

Later picks (picks 25-32):

2000 (MISS) Rob Morris - 28th overall

2001 (HIT) Reggie Wayne - 30th overall

2005 (MISS) Marlin Jackson - 29th overall

2006 (HIT) Joseph Addai - 30th overall

2007 (MISS) Anthony Gonzales - 32nd overall

2009 (MISS) Donald Brown - 27th overall

2010 (MISS) Jerry Hughes - 31st overall

So, for the Colts, the "magic number" seems to be about pick 22-24. When picking at 24 or earlier, they hit on 100% (7/7) of their picks. When picking later than that, they only hit on 28% (2/7) of their picks. In fact, all of their "misses" occurred when picking from the last 6 picks of the 1st round.

What that suggests to me is that the Colts front office is absolutely remarkable about choosing the correct player, when they have an adequate selection to choose from. When they're stuck picking from the "left overs" in the 1st round, they don't do so well. It's particularly telling that the first 1st rounder they've "hit" on in a really long time is last year's pick, Anthony Castonzo, which only happened because the Colts picked at 22, which is a lot earlier than in previous years.

How or what do you use to determine hit or miss? Yes Rob Morris wasn't a stud, but he wasn't a dud either and was a nice player for the Colts for a few seasons. With AC when healthy he produced, it was health not talent that has kept him down.

[John Waylon]

DEEP...

Donalnd Brown leads us in average per carry (5.5) by a large margin......and we're a mere 4 games out of first place :whiteflag:

Well, that really doesn't mean much when you getting less than half the carries of the guys above you.

[vitoaf27]

I think you're spot on with your analysis. I would actually really enjoy reading the same type of analysis applied to all of our draft picks in the past 14 years. If you ever have some free time, feel free to do that!

[oldunclemark]

Well, that really doesn't mean much when you getting less than half the carries of the guys above you.

John....after two promising if limited efforts the last two weeks..

You're still not down with Brown??? :duh:

[Mouthfire]

How or what do you use to determine hit or miss? Yes Rob Morris wasn't a stud, but he wasn't a dud either and was a nice player for the Colts for a few seasons. With AC when healthy he produced, it was health not talent that has kept him down.

It's a bit subjective. As mentioned above, my criteria is whether the player was worth a 1st round pick based on his total career. Other people may understandably disagree with my classifications. But again, it's an entirely subjective issue.

[John Waylon]

John....after two promising if limited efforts the last two weeks..

You're still not down with Brown??? :duh:

I'll take Carter, and Addai thanks.

Their average is better than what Brown's would be if he had as many carries as them. Brown's would most likely fall to somewhere around the 3.5 range once he hit 50 carries. Carter and Addai's average is nearly as good as Browns with twice as many carries. They're doing twice the work with nearly equal production. That ALWAYS wins out over a huge average with low carries.

But if it's all about average per carry, then Rock Cartwright must be the second coming of Jim Brown, his is a whopping 35 yards. Nevermind it's only 1 carry, he's averaging 35 yards!

Which is also better than Brown.

[oldunclemark]

I'll take Carter, and Addai thanks.

Their average is better than what Brown's would be if he had as many carries as them. Brown's would most likely fall to somewhere around the 3.5 range once he hit 50 carries. Carter and Addai's average is nearly as good as Browns with twice as many carries. They're doing twice the work with nearly equal production. That ALWAYS wins out over a huge average with low carries.

But if it's all about average per carry, then Rock Cartwright must be the second coming of Jim Brown, his is a whopping 35 yards. Nevermind it's only 1 carry, he's averaging 35 yards!

Which is also better than Brown.

Hey, when get back home against Atlanta........he's going to be 'Sweet Georgia Brown'

..and he may outrush the $50,000,000-man Chris Johnson this Sunday! (But then everybody does)

[Mouthfire]

How or what do you use to determine hit or miss? Yes Rob Morris wasn't a stud, but he wasn't a dud either and was a nice player for the Colts for a few seasons. With AC when healthy he produced, it was health not talent that has kept him down.

To add some more to this, the underlying premise behind this thread is: what exactly is Bill Polian's legacy as a draft guru? He has a tremendous reputation for talent evaluation and being a master at finding gems in the draft/free agency. As a corollary, the question I ask is, how did each of the 1st round picks affect his legacy?

The "hits" that I classified above, I don't think anyone would argue against. Peyton Manning, Dwight Freeney, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark.... all out-of-the-park homerun hits.

Some of the "misses", on the other hand... Rob Morris, Marlin Jackson, Anthony Gonzales, etc. The fact that you do have to debate them and make a case for them, makes me believe that they weren't on the same level of success as the "hits". Which is why I feel comfortable leaving them as "misses". They really don't do anything to elevate Polian's legacy as a draft expert.

But again, I will leave that topic open. I'm willing to hear arguments either way.

[colts52761]

I hardly ever see Hughes get time at DE. I don't know what he can do really. We give too much time to Brayton, who probably will not be back. I would say the last 5 drafts have been poor overall.

[Jason_]

I would add Marlin Jackson to the list of non-misses. Marlin Jackson was great at providing run support from the nickel and the fact that our DT position was never consistently good (due to luck or lack of drafted depth) led to him taking more FBs/TEs/OLs on and did contribute to his injury history, IMO. When healthy, he produced real well. Same with Gonzo, IMO - produced well when healthy. But 3 unhealthy years out of 5 would end up being bad if he cannot have a resurgence this year.

Gonzo was drafted to replace Harrison, Brown to replace Addai and Hughes to replace Mathis/Freeney.

Brown and Hughes are the ones who have been mostly healthy but ineffective more than not when healthy.

Only thing I'm not sure I agree with is Brown being drafted to replace Addai. I think Brown was drafted to replace Dominic Rhodes as the 2nd part of the 2 headed rushing attack. Rhodes was brought back to split carries with Addai in '08 on a one year contract. They drafted Brown to replace Rhodes because they had no plans of re-signing Rhodes. I never got the impression that they were ever planning to let Addai go. Could be wrong though but that was my understanding of the situation.

[Douzer]

Tagging Marlin as a "miss" seems overly critical as a way to recognize him in a Colts list. I think his talent panned out to be around a mid to late second rounder. So drafted 20 to 30 spots higher overall than warranted maybe, but still a good Colts pick.

Would it be more insightful to look at draft picks in this way?

[number28]

I wouldn't go as far as saying that Marlin Jackson was a miss.

He is better than all of our CB's combined. I wish we still had him and Kelvin Hayden. ahh the good old days.

[Gonzo]

I also disagree on Marlin being a miss. He was an almost ideal corner for our system but his career was disrupted by injuries.

[Mouthfire]

Since the overall consensus seems to be that Marlin Jackson was a good pick, I'm editing the original post to reflect that.

Edit: Err... it actually looks like I can't edit the post anymore.

Edited October 28, 2011 by Mouthfire

[Mouthfire]

Another thought would be to include Tony Ugoh in the analysis, since apparently the Colts staff felt he was a 1st round talent and warranted trading the next years 1st round pick for. I'm not sure which group I'd lump him into, however (late 1st round group?), since he was technically a 2nd round pick.

[Mouthfire]

Tagging Marlin as a "miss" seems overly critical as a way to recognize him in a Colts list. I think his talent panned out to be around a mid to late second rounder. So drafted 20 to 30 spots higher overall than warranted maybe, but still a good Colts pick.

Would it be more insightful to look at draft picks in this way?

Probably. I'll have to think about that.

I'd have to say though, regarding Marlin Jackson: I think there's a pretty clear delineation between the players I marked as "hits" and those I marked as "misses". The "hits", except for Costanzo, have all played at a Pro-Bowl level at some point in their career. Marlin Jackson and Rob Morris (even though due to extenuating circumstances) have not.

I do realize, though, that it's holding the picks to a pretty high standard. But that's the standard that Polian set for himself with his early picks.

Edited October 28, 2011 by Mouthfire

[GoGoColts]

Also, please note that this is a very quick, rough analysis of their drafting history. There's probably a more robust way of doing the analysis, but I'm not a statistician.... ;)

I am a type of psychologist whose work is very statistical in nature. I divided the hits and misses into two groups and removed Peyton and Edge as outliers (Judgement call) to make the results more conservative. The average draft position of hits is 22 (SD = 7). The average draft position of misses is 29 (SD = 4.3). I conducted a two-tailed independent-samples t-test to determine if the means represented a statistically significant difference or likely occurred by chance. There is statistically significant evidence that the average draft position of hits was higher than misses, t(9) = .

Finding a statistically significant difference with such a small sample size requires quite a large difference. I went conservative all around using a two-tailed instead of one-tailed and removing Peyton and Edge.

Edited October 28, 2011 by GoGoColts

[Mouthfire]

I am a type of psychologist whose work is very statistical in nature. I divided the hits and misses into two groups and removed Peyton and Edge as outliers (Judgement call) to make the results more conservative. The average draft position of hits is 22 (SD = 7). The average draft position of misses is 29 (SD = 4.3). I conducted a two-tailed independent-samples t-test to determine if the means represented a statistically significant difference or likely occurred by chance. There is statistically significant evidence that the average draft position of hits was higher than misses, t(9) = .

Finding a statistically significant difference with such a small sample size requires quite a large difference. I went conservative all around using a two-tailed instead of one-tailed and removing Peyton and Edge.

Excellent work!!!

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the difference was significant, even with that small sample size. But it's good to know that it's at least statistically confirmed.

Thanks for doing that. Statistics has never been my strong suite.

Edited October 28, 2011 by Mouthfire

[GoGoColts]

Excellent work!!!

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the difference was significant, even with that small sample size. But it's good to know that it's at least statistically confirmed.

Thanks for doing that. Statistics has never been my strong suite.

Thanks, you did the hard part from my perspective. But yea, it's always good to have the statistical test to back claims with small samples.

I had been wondering for some time abut this, but I have been too lazy to collect the data. I would also be curious to know how the Colts measure up against other organizations. The analyses are easy. Collecting the data and deciding who is a bust or not is difficult.

When you think of a guy like Gonzo, as far as actual play, he isn't a bust. He just can't stay healthy.

Edited October 28, 2011 by GoGoColts

[smittywerb]

I've brought this up one time but I feel like we are a victim of our own success. We have been drafting low for quite some time. Since we do not use FA to fill holes we have to wait for our draft picks to pan out. But as you can see, the low picks have turned into busts which have set us back. I feel like if we had used to FA to solve some problems (depth, quality, etc.) those busts would not have as much of an impact on the team's future success like it is now. Recently, a lot of our first round picks are either sitting, injured, or not on the team....That is not good at all.

[Fatboyslim11]

The question is often brought up: Why have the Colts failed so frequently in the recent past when drafting 1st rounders? It seemed like the Colts front office had the "magic touch" when drafting earlier on in Peyton's career. But for the past half-decade, they've barely hit at all.

To me, it's readily apparent when looking at the Colts draft history. I classified the Colt's picks as either "hits" or "misses". Please note: this quick analysis only looks at what they've done in the 1st round. It doesn't take into account all of the "hits" they've made in the later rounds, which was quite frequent. I also didn't take into account 2nd round picks Tony Ugoh, who you might argue was a 1st round pick, and Bob Sanders/Mike Pollack, who were the first picks their years. I also only took into account the years since Marvin Harrison was drafted, since the players drafted afterwards accounted for the foundation of the Colts in the Peyton Manning years.

1996 (HIT) Marvin Harrison - 19th overall

1997 (HIT) Tarik Glenn - 19th overall

1998 (HIT) Peyton Manning - 1st overall

1999 (HIT) Edgerrin James - 4th overall

2000 (MISS) Rob Morris - 28th overall

2001 (HIT) Reggie Wayne - 30th overall

2002 (HIT) Dwight Freeney - 11th overall

2003 (HIT) Dallas Clark - 24rd overall

2004 - No first round pick

2005 (MISS) Marlin Jackson - 29th overall

2006 (HIT) Joseph Addai - 30th overall

2007 (MISS) Anthony Gonzales - 32nd overall

2008 - No first round pick

2009 (MISS) Donald Brown - 27th overall

2010 (MISS) Jerry Hughes - 31st overall

2011 (HIT) Anthony Castonzo - 22nd overall

Looking at the list above, a few trends do emerge. First, the Colts did "hit" a lot more frequently in the earlier years than later. And second (and more importantly), all of the "misses" were late 1st round picks.

Separating the picks into approximately the 1st two-thirds (i.e. picks 1-24) and the last one-third of the round (i.e. picks 25-32), the picks look like this:

Earlier picks (picks 1-24):

1996 (HIT) Marvin Harrison - 19th overall

1997 (HIT) Tarik Glenn - 19th overall

1998 (HIT) Peyton Manning - 1st overall

1999 (HIT) Edgerrin James - 4th overall

2002 (HIT) Dwight Freeney - 11th overall

2003 (HIT) Dallas Clark - 24rd overall

2011 (HIT) Anthony Castonzo - 22nd overall

Later picks (picks 25-32):

2000 (MISS) Rob Morris - 28th overall

2001 (HIT) Reggie Wayne - 30th overall

2005 (MISS) Marlin Jackson - 29th overall

2006 (HIT) Joseph Addai - 30th overall

2007 (MISS) Anthony Gonzales - 32nd overall

2009 (MISS) Donald Brown - 27th overall

2010 (MISS) Jerry Hughes - 31st overall

So, for the Colts, the "magic number" seems to be about pick 22-24. When picking at 24 or earlier, they hit on 100% (7/7) of their picks. When picking later than that, they only hit on 28% (2/7) of their picks. In fact, all of their "misses" occurred when picking from the last 6 picks of the 1st round.

What that suggests to me is that the Colts front office is absolutely remarkable about choosing the correct player, when they have an adequate selection to choose from. When they're stuck picking from the "left overs" in the 1st round, they don't do so well. It's particularly telling that the first 1st rounder they've "hit" on in a really long time is last year's pick, Anthony Castonzo, which only happened because the Colts picked at 22, which is a lot earlier than in previous years.

Is this an analysis of the Colts first rounds drafts under Polian or their first round drafting since 1996? Marvin (1996) and Tarik (1997) were drafted by Bill Tobin not Polian.

[Fatboyslim11]

Probably. I'll have to think about that.

I'd have to say though, regarding Marlin Jackson: I think there's a pretty clear delineation between the players I marked as "hits" and those I marked as "misses". The "hits", except for Costanzo, have all played at a Pro-Bowl level at some point in their career. Marlin Jackson and Rob Morris (even though due to extenuating circumstances) have not.

I do realize, though, that it's holding the picks to a pretty high standard. But that's the standard that Polian set for himself with his early picks.

I think it is far too early to classify Costanzo as a hit or bust when he has only played a few games in the NFL and like so many of our players, he is injuried. I wish someone would do a statistical analysis (not me!) of our players getting injuried vs, the percentage of other team players getting injuried. It seems like our players are paper thin tough and get injuried far too often in comparison to the rest of the league players,

[smittywerb]

Is this an analysis of the Colts first rounds drafts under Polian or their first round drafting since 1996? Marvin (1996) and Tarik (1997) were drafted by Bill Tobin not Polian.

That makes hit list look even worse.

[Blue Horseshoe]

I don't think Brown has really had a fair shot yet because the offensive line has been so bad his entire career.

I'd like to see what he could do behind Castanzo and a quality guard before I'm ready to give up on him completely.

[pacolts56]

Is this an analysis of the Colts first rounds drafts under Polian or their first round drafting since 1996? Marvin (1996) and Tarik (1997) were drafted by Bill Tobin not Polian.

Thank you....I was just fixing to post that.

Subtracting a future Hall of Fame WR and a Pro Bowl LT from that list does indeed put additional perspective on Polian's first round selections.

And considering that Glenn and Harrison were passed over by a good number of teams... hats off to Bill Tobin for two outstanding value picks.

Edited October 29, 2011 by pacolts56

[WSO]

Marlin was good just not 1st round good. He was solid.

I haven't watched Constanzo too much is he really that good? I thought he was injured, with all the injuries we have I don't keep track.