whoever is healthy at the start of the season. Remember Cain injured himself i'm preseason which really was a downer so i'm hoping everyone pulls through to week 1. That being said i'm rooting for Cain
Who are your top 5 Chris Ballard draft picks that you are most excited about heading into 2019 regardless of draft year. My Top 5 (no particular order):
* Malik Hooker
* Marlon Mack
* Kemoko Turay
* Parris Campbell
This will be way too long, sorry...
You're making a lot of assumptions that don't always hold up:
1) Whether a new GM wants to hire a new coaching staff or not, every GM does not hire a new coaching staff in Year 1.
2) Not every GM change is the result of a disappointing season, and not every disappointing season is linked to a bad coaching performance. The Texans didn't have a bad season, and Gaine wasn't terrible. Evidently they want to keep O'Brien and pair him with a hand chosen GM.
3) The hiring of a GM does not have to be inexorably linked to the hiring of a head coach.
4) Retaining a head coach with a new GM doesn't necessarily mean flushing Year 1 down the toilet.
And then a couple statements that are just inaccurate:
1) You said the GM candidates I mentioned were not in the running five months ago. That's false. Those are named candidates every year for the last three or four years. The same way Ballard was in the pipeline for several years. Joe Douglas has been considered as a GM candidate for at least two years. The pipeline doesn't get emptied every January. Same is true for head coaching candidates.
2) Specific to the Texans and Caserio, it's not about whether he will be a good GM, because no one knows. The fact of the matter is he's obviously the guy they want. Waiting until June didn't cost them a shot at their hand picked GM candidate.
3) New GMs hired in January actually DO keep virtually all of their front office staff in place for that first FA/draft period. They change their deputies and make scouting changes after the draft. This is typical. (It helps if you acknowledge that the process and timeline for hiring front office staff is different from that for hiring a coaching staff.)
Here's what I'm saying: I don't think that making this change in June in any given year costs a team a chance at interviewing from a strong pool of GM candidates. As a matter of fact, interviewing in June probably makes it easier to talk to the best candidates. Teams are more willing to grant access to key, contracted personnel (rules state they have to, I believe, which is what makes Caserio's contract so interesting), and high-ranked deputies are, in theory, going to be more willing to take time to prepare for an interview, since it's not interrupting their draft season prep. (Similar to Reich not being open to interviews until the Eagles' season was over.)
I'm saying that while January is the best time to hire a head coach, I don't think January is the best time to hire a GM. You're giving him three weeks to get ready for the Combine, six weeks to get ready for free agency, and four months to get ready for the draft. (And if you're asking him to make a coaching decision in those first two weeks, you're putting even more on his plate.) Just like you make coaching changes when the season ends, it makes sense to make GM changes when the player acquisition cycle ends. You're giving him a longer runway to get ready for his first real year in the position.
I'm saying that if the Texans had fired Gaine in January 2020, no one would be critical of their timing, which is silly because whoever they hire now will have an additional six months to get ready for their next player acquisition cycle. (Same for the Jets and Douglas.)
I'm saying that I think the pipeline of future GMs is strong and deep.
I'm saying that it's not even necessarily a matter of waiting. For instance, I think the Colts would have been better off firing Ryan Grigson in June 2016 instead of January 2017. We can actually move the timeline up six months, and now we're talking about doing this sooner, not later. (Revisit the first line of my first post in this thread.)
Most importantly, I'm saying that a big picture view of this process prioritizes the long term good of the franchise over the current year's draft. So even if the owner has decided that he's going to make a change soon, he might figure that it's better to let his current GM handle the coming draft and make the change later, rather than hiring a new guy and giving him four months to learn the job, evaluate his roster and coaching staff, run free agency and the draft.. all with the personnel men and scouts that were hired by the previous GM. That might undermine the first year, but if you're hiring a GM to lead your franchise for the next decade, that's okay.
This is different. I don't care. How it's always been done doesn't hold a lot of weight, IMO. Evaluate your processes, just like you evaluate your personnel. Don't let good enough be the enemy of better. To me, it's better to hire a GM in June, let him shape his front office and scouting staff, take time to evaluate the roster and even the coaching staff, and then he's in a position of strength for his first year, rather than scrambling for his first four months. All JMO.
Last thing, that doesn't mean I think a team can't get this right if they do it in January.