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Keeping Brissett at #2

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10 minutes ago, Hoose said:

Everyone forgets that Brissett is still learning. He got thrown to the wolves last year with no history with the team and becoming an immediate starter. MOST players would struggle badly in that situation, Jimmy G. excepted. He learned a great deal last year and will be better this year. The offensive play calling HAS to be better this year as does the O-line. He’ll be fine. Pick some other target. 

 

The question is, where does he rank as a starter in the NFL?  His trade value is tied to that answer.

Here is a writers list of top backup QB's (trade value) back in 2015 -

 

Zack Mettenberger
Mike Glennon
Derek Anderson
Shaun Hill
Chase Daniel
Ryan Mallett

 

Wow, Where are they now?  
In addition, here's a list of % of success (multi year starter, not necessarily good) of QB's by round taken-

QB's drafted between 1990-2016

    
pick           success %
1-16              81%
17-32             65%
2nd round       48%
3rd round       25%
4th round       13%
5th round       6%
6th round       16%
7th round       6%

 

So there was about a 50% chance to make it if you were a second round pick.  But not all that make it are the same, or even all that good, as this 2nd rounder list shows - Brett Favre, Drew Brees, Jake Plummer, Andy Dalton, Tony Banks, Colin Kaepernick, Kordell Stewart, Charlie Batch, Derek Carr, Chad Henne, Geno Smith?, Kellen Clemens, Quincy Carter and Tarvaris Jackson.

 

Tough business, that franchise QB thing...

 

 

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Supposedly we received trade offers for Brissett.  Ballard said no probably to hedge agains Luck not being ready. If Luck returns fully recovered you can bet he will be gone next year and we will sign an older veteran backup.  If he has a good preseason we could easily get another 2nd. rd. pick at a minimum to help finish the rebuild.  Especially since next years QB class is not that great. 

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2 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

But a team might evaluate their own O line and it just might not be as good as our revamped line.  Thus, last years performance under pressure is on tape, and telling.

 

 

Draft QB's in round 1 are cheap, and you control them for a minimum of 5 years.  The price for starting QB's (even unproven) not on a rookie contract are astronomical.

 

 

Draft QB's in round 1 are cheap, and you control them for a minimum of 5 years.  Backup QB's are often 2nd and 3rd day picks, have some NFL experience and teams have a fairly decent (yet not perfect) grasp of their ceiling.  JB has much work to develop more than Jimmy Garopolo has.

Ah...... no.

of course you can twist anything anyone says as wrong, but, no.

you missed the mark.

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2 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

The question is, where does he rank as a starter in the NFL?  His trade value is tied to that answer.

Here is a writers list of top backup QB's (trade value) back in 2015 -

 

Zack Mettenberger
Mike Glennon
Derek Anderson
Shaun Hill
Chase Daniel
Ryan Mallett

 

Wow, Where are they now?  
In addition, here's a list of % of success (multi year starter, not necessarily good) of QB's by round taken-

QB's drafted between 1990-2016

    
pick           success %
1-16              81%
17-32             65%
2nd round       48%
3rd round       25%
4th round       13%
5th round       6%
6th round       16%
7th round       6%

 

So there was about a 50% chance to make it if you were a second round pick.  But not all that make it are the same, or even all that good, as this 2nd rounder list shows - Brett Favre, Drew Brees, Jake Plummer, Andy Dalton, Tony Banks, Colin Kaepernick, Kordell Stewart, Charlie Batch, Derek Carr, Chad Henne, Geno Smith?, Kellen Clemens, Quincy Carter and Tarvaris Jackson.

 

Tough business, that franchise QB thing...

 

 

You cant just cherry pick the stats you want.

there is a VERY good reason back-ups "disappear", and that is the fact that there are only 32 starting spots.  

You could say the same of Kurt Warner if Green wouldn't have gotten hurt.  We wouldnt know who Kurt Warner (the QB) is.

it is my belief that there are numerous back-ups in the league that would be better than some current starters but because of lack of reps really puts them behind the curve.  Would ee know who Brady is if Drew would not have gotten hurt?  Dont be so sure!

back-ups usually dont get that 2nd contract either.  So if they do get picked up by another team, they not only dont have real experience, but they now have to learn a new offense, team, etc.  the odds are really stacked against MOST back-ups in this league.'

you cant just make a blanket statement... "they are back-ups for a reason".  Its just not the case.

and the success  by round taken is not anything unique, ALL positions track like that by round.

my point is, if teams didnt have 1/4 of their salaries tied up in their "starter", these back-ups would get more reps, more playing time, etc , which , in turn, would provide more quality QBs overall in the league.  But the league doesnt work like that.  QB is perhaps the ONE position that most teams dont provide as much depth as other  positions.  Its not because there are only 10 or 20 starter-caliber QBs in the league, its because thes backups arent getting developed properly (by most teams).  And if you do develop a good backup, you will surely lose him in FA., 

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Brissett didn't come to Indianapolis to be our future #1 but our future and reliable #2 If Colts fans learned anything from last season, it's the importance of having a solid backup QB. Brissett is still under contract here for the next two seasons and depending on our situation, we can re-sign him as our backup or if we think he's going to command too much money on the market, we can trade him and get something for him. This kid can play and showed us a lot last season, but he was also thrown into the fire on a new year with a terrible offensive line and bad coaching staff. I really believe he will thrive in Reich's offense and I see him being a poor man's Steve McNair. The kid showed a lot of toughness last year and I loved his attitude.

 

 

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3 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:

You cant just cherry pick the stats you want.

 

Feel free to cite your own stats that support your position.

 

Quote

there is a VERY good reason back-ups "disappear", and that is the fact that there are only 32 starting spots.  

You could say the same of Kurt Warner if Green wouldn't have gotten hurt.  We wouldnt know who Kurt Warner (the QB) is.

it is my belief that there are numerous back-ups in the league that would be better than some current starters

 

 

My 'cherry picked stats show how little chance there is of that, but there are chances, and real success stories too.  Kurt Warner was in Arena league. CFL didn't want him because their QB's ar smaller and  more mobile (Think Doug Flutie, Jeff Garcia, etc...) and he was pure pocket passer with decent arm. So he did get some attention from NFL.

 

Quote

but because of lack of reps really puts them behind the curve.  Would ee know who Brady is if Drew would not have gotten hurt?  Dont be so sure!

back-ups usually dont get that 2nd contract either.  So if they do get picked up by another team, they not only dont have real experience, but they now have to learn a new offense, team, etc.  the odds are really stacked against MOST back-ups in this league.'

 

That CBA!  Hurts the starters too.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/13114418/practice-restrictions-hurting-quarterback-development-nfl

 

Quote

you cant just make a blanket statement... "they are back-ups for a reason".  Its just not the case.

 

Show me where I made this blanket statement?

 

Quote

and the success  by round taken is not anything unique, ALL positions track like that by round.

my point is, if teams didnt have 1/4 of their salaries tied up in their "starter", these back-ups would get more reps, more playing time, etc , which , in turn, would provide more quality QBs overall in the league.  But the league doesnt work like that.  QB is perhaps the ONE position that most teams dont provide as much depth as other  positions.  Its not because there are only 10 or 20 starter-caliber QBs in the league, its because thes backups arent getting developed properly (by most teams).  And if you do develop a good backup, you will surely lose him in FA., 

 

It's not the starting QB job to 'teach' the backups, nor give up his 1st team reps. It's the coaches jobs to look at every player, and set the depth chart via talent, film study, playbook knowledge, etc... not draft round.  The see every player every day.  They know much more than us fans. The lack of quality 1st team reps for backups is the players fault.  They pushed for less practice, and less time in pads in the CBA.  Thus the limited reps have to go to the starter.  The backup has to shine brightly in other ways to get a look over the starter.  That's NFL life. But also be ready and prepared if/when the starter gets an injury.

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2 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Feel free to cite your own stats that support your position.

 

 

My 'cherry picked stats show how little chance there is of that, but there are chances, and real success stories too.  Kurt Warner was in Arena league. CFL didn't want him because their QB's ar smaller and  more mobile (Think Doug Flutie, Jeff Garcia, etc...) and he was pure pocket passer with decent arm. So he did get some attention from NFL.

 

 

That CBA!  Hurts the starters too.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/13114418/practice-restrictions-hurting-quarterback-development-nfl

 

 

Show me where I made this blanket statement?

 

 

It's not the starting QB job to 'teach' the backups, nor give up his 1st team reps. It's the coaches jobs to look at every player, and set the depth chart via talent, film study, playbook knowledge, etc... not draft round.  The see every player every day.  They know much more than us fans. The lack of quality 1st team reps for backups is the players fault.  They pushed for less practice, and less time in pads in the CBA.  Thus the limited reps have to go to the starter.  The backup has to shine brightly in other ways to get a look over the starter.  That's NFL life. But also be ready and prepared if/when the starter gets an injury.

We're gonna have to disagree.  I feel you either dont understand my point on the reason "backups" (which are usually  the lower draft picks hence the corellation to reps, experience, success rates and longevity) dont become starters or you just wanna twist what my point is.

no problem.  Its very difficult to fully explain things sometimes here.  Many times points are misunderstood:  perhaps we agree more than it seems.  

i think this all started because we have different opinions of Brissetts potential or "worth."  Time MAY tell.  Btw, whats next years QB did aft class look like?  Many of the current  "backups" changed homes this year so the FA market could be scarce next offseason.

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12 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

The question is, where does he rank as a starter in the NFL?  His trade value is tied to that answer.

Here is a writers list of top backup QB's (trade value) back in 2015 -

 

Zack Mettenberger
Mike Glennon
Derek Anderson
Shaun Hill
Chase Daniel
Ryan Mallett

 

Wow, Where are they now?  
In addition, here's a list of % of success (multi year starter, not necessarily good) of QB's by round taken-

QB's drafted between 1990-2016

    
pick           success %
1-16              81%
17-32             65%
2nd round       48%
3rd round       25%
4th round       13%
5th round       6%
6th round       16%
7th round       6%

 

So there was about a 50% chance to make it if you were a second round pick.  But not all that make it are the same, or even all that good, as this 2nd rounder list shows - Brett Favre, Drew Brees, Jake Plummer, Andy Dalton, Tony Banks, Colin Kaepernick, Kordell Stewart, Charlie Batch, Derek Carr, Chad Henne, Geno Smith?, Kellen Clemens, Quincy Carter and Tarvaris Jackson.

 

Tough business, that franchise QB thing...

 

 

 

Slightly interesting is to also look at the production/effectiveness drop off as you go down rounds. I started doing a write up on draft pick value (according to the chart) vs production to see pick values would be based if you weighted them on player stats.

 

While I agree that multi year starters are rare outside the first two rounds you got a surprisingly decent level of good play from lower round picks in admitally small sample sizes of games. Tbf the whole QB position was a bit wonky because of their scarcity, made it easy for outliers to skew things.

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I suspect that the Colts would still be a very competitive team with Jacoby at the helm. We have all seen the progress that young starters make in their 2nd season. I see no reason to believe Brissett wouldn't follow the pattern, especially since he's getting all the #1 reps in OTAs. Plus he's got a lot more help this year. Still, I confess I'm hoping for Luck's return. He's a special guy.

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I guess the question is, should Brissett have to play this year (hoping luck does come back), is he better than:

 

Andy Dalton
Alex Smith
Carson Wentz/ Nick Foles
Deshaun Watson (x2)
Tom Brady
Sam Darnold / Teddy Bridgewater / Josh McCown
A.J. McCarron/ Josh Allen
Derek Carr
Blake Bortles (x2)
Marcus Mariota (x2)
Ryan Tannehill
Dak Prescott
Eli Manning

 

And is the rest of the team good enough to win over these clubs with Brissett?  Because that is potentially what is before the Colts this year.

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51 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

I guess the question is, should Brissett have to play this year (hoping luck does come back), is he better than:

 

Andy Dalton
Alex Smith
Carson Wentz/ Nick Foles
Deshaun Watson (x2)
Tom Brady
Sam Darnold / Teddy Bridgewater / Josh McCown
A.J. McCarron/ Josh Allen
Derek Carr
Blake Bortles (x2)
Marcus Mariota (x2)
Ryan Tannehill
Dak Prescott
Eli Manning

 

And is the rest of the team good enough to win over these clubs with Brissett?  Because that is potentially what is before the Colts this year.

If Brissett does end having to play he don't have to be better than those QBs you listed.

The team has to play well enough to win. No matter who the QB is it's still a team effort.

I have a feeling we will be an up and down team this year no matter who the QB is. We are very young and are stacked with rookies and they will make rookie mistakes.

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