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By Dobbinblitz · Posted
The closer we are getting to the draft the more I see Turner being projected outside the top 10. Still, Latu is a gamble - he was medically retired after his sophomore season and told he would never play football again due to a neck injury, Transferred to UCLA and was eventually cleared. He just seems like the type of player who has the goods, but will fall in the draft due to health concerns. -
There's a lot of analysis to be done here, IMO. I don't know all the answers, but some questions that should be addressed are what's the difference between the success rate of a first round pick and that of a second/third round pick, historically? How do you value that difference? I think I've seen stats that say first rounders are starters at a higher rate than other rounds, but is that influenced by the bias of the team that drafted the player in the first round? (Probably.) It's probably fair to say that the players taken in the first round are more likely to be difference makers than the players taken later, but I think there are position groups where the difference is negligible, and I think WR is one of them. And then, if you get into a climate where everyone is selling in the first round, then the value probably flips at some point. Also, I don't necessarily think of the draft as a crap shoot. Yes, it's arbitrary, but I think some front offices are good at drafting, and some are bad at drafting; but the difference isn't as wide as general perception would indicate. And there are lots of dependent variables -- coaching, health, etc. -- that influence the outcome of each pick. I do think more picks is the way to go to maximize value. But to build the best roster? That's a different arm of the discussion. Like you said later on, we've been trading down, and we don't have a great roster. You also make a good point about the rookie contract vs trading for an established player, and that's not to be ignored. But my point is that if you're going to base your appetite for risk on your level of conviction in the player, I'd rather take the big swing on the established player than on a draft prospect, despite the difference in contract status. The ideal mix is to target a second or third year WR so you can at least get some of the rookie contract. Ballard reportedly asked for Jaylen Waddle and Christian Watson last year. -
I really don’t see that type of Defensive player in this draft. But there’s always surprises. But I agree, we’ve got to go offensive fire power this year. At least in the first. -
If they want to beat the Texans they will
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