Tony Pauline: The Colts love Roquan Smith, but want to trade down a few spots to select him

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http://draftanalyst.com/linebacker-boards-flux

 

 

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As the draft draws near, word will inevitably get out on players moving up and down draft boards. Today we start with the latest word at the linebacker position.

 

The belief on the outside is that Tremaine Edmunds will be the first linebacker selected in the draft, likely piercing the initial 10 slots. And while Edmunds is still expected to be a top-10 selection, he may not be the first linebacker selected.

 

That honor may ultimately go to Roquan Smith.

 

After speaking with several people over the past few days, it seems Smith is the fastest-rising linebacker and is moving north up boards as teams gather for final meetings.

 

How early could Smith go?

 

During our two-round mock draft posted on Monday, I mentioned that the Indianapolis Colts love Roquan Smith. I can tell you the team would like to move down a few slots from the sixth pick to select him. This goes hand in hand with something I mentioned during the Senior Bowl -- the Colts were looking to trade down in the draft and come away with three linebackers from their collection of picks. 

 

While Edmunds has a decided size and power advantage, next-level decision makers love Smith’s ability to chew up ground quickly and move sideline to sideline with greater speed. It should be noted that more teams are slotting Edmunds as a strong-side linebacker, while they feel Smith is a multi-scheme linebacker who can play on the inside or outside.

 

Leighton Vander Esch of Boise State is not far behind Smith and Edmunds and should be off the board by the 20th selection.

 

One final note on Smith.

 

During the combine, I mentioned that Smith and his teammate Lorenzo Carter had been medically red-flagged by a few teams based on previous injury history. This seems to have morphed into a beast of its own, with many claiming I stated Smith has serious medical issues and failed exams. Here’s the exact passage from Day 6 at the combine:

“Lorenzo Carter and Roquan Smith of Georgia both had terrific combine workouts. Carter, who I’ve always believed was a first-round talent, ran under 4.5 in the 40, bested everyone in his group with a broad jump of 10-foot-10 and posted a vertical jump of 39.5 inches. Roquan Smith ran 4.51 and will do the rest of the drills at his pro day. I have been informed both players were red-flagged medically by a number of teams due to past injury history. While I don’t expect the medical evaluations to be a drag on the draft stocks of Carter and Smith, it is something likely to be part of the debate on draft day when each player is being considered.”

Medical grades differ from team to team and are subjective; what one team views as an issue, other teams will have no problem with.

 

 

[Boiler_Colt]

Yep, I saw this earlier too. If Chubb is off the board and I'm 95% sure he will be, I can see Smith being the pick.

[Fisticuffs111]

Yeah, I could see this being as legitimate as pre-draft rumors go.

I wouldn't be surprised if option A is Chubb, with a potential trade down or just picking Roquan at #6 as option B. I've never really thought Ballard would draft Barkley or Nelson, which is a pretty unpopular opinion, but it's just my thinking.

[PeterBowman]

3 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

Yup, I could see this being about as legitimate as pre-draft rumors go.

I wouldn't be surprised if option A is Chubb, with a potential trade down or just picking Roquan at #6 as option B. I've never really thought Ballard would draft Barkley or Nelson, which is a pretty unpopular opinion, but it's just my thinking.

this ^^^

 

I agree that Chubb is the preferred choice. Also if this wasn't such a deep Guard draft I could see them taking Nelson. But it is very deep at guard and I can see them using one of their 2nd rounders on one.

 

Now, I'm interested to see what they'll do if Chubb is gone but they can't find a trade partner at 6.

 

Honestly, if they love a player that much, a few draft spots won't make that big a difference and they should just take him. But if they can trade back, still get Smith AND get extra picks then that's just icing on the cake.

[Fisticuffs111]

56 minutes ago, PeterBowman said:

this ^^^

 

I agree that Chubb is the preferred choice. Also if this wasn't such a deep Guard draft I could see them taking Nelson. But it is very deep at guard and I can see them using one of their 2nd rounders on one.

 

Now, I'm interested to see what they'll do if Chubb is gone but they can't find a trade partner at 6.

 

Honestly, if they love a player that much, a few draft spots won't make that big a difference and they should just take him. But if they can trade back, still get Smith AND get extra picks then that's just icing on the cake.

Yeah, that's pretty much my reasoning for passing on Nelson as well.

As for Roquan, also agreed. I think if Ballard's really that enamored with him he'll probably just take him at #6, unless we just get a really good return for the pick. There's a lot of risk trading back past the Bears and Raiders, Bears met with Roquan and the Raiders are also LB needy.

[Indyfan4life]

We are in a rather vicarious position at the moment. But honestly, I trust whatever decision is made at this point. 

[pgt_rob]

Trade down and get a couple more 2nd round picks and a 3rd round pick would be amazing. We would have one hell of a haul. Ballard just needs to pick the right players with our nice amount of picks.

[Boiler_Colt]

If Nelson is on the board and the Colts really like Smith more, I could see a trade down with the Bears at 8. Bears jump in front of Tampa to take Nelson and Colts take Smith. Would they give up a #2 or perhaps Jordan Howard and a pick?

[DougDew]

Good.  Its what I was thinking.  Ballard should allow a nearby team to trade up to get Barkley, Chubb, or Nelson at #6 so he can take Smith at a lower spot.  

[Rackeen305]

This Leighton Vander Esch reminds me of another OLB/DE the Colts once drafted when CB Xavier Rhodes was on the clock. Björn Werner. That 2013 draft, I was so sure the Colts would draft Rhodes. I remember telling my Barber prior to the draft, Don't be surprised if FSU CB Xavier Rhodes get drafted by my Colts. And it turned out that I was disappointed. Primarily because Rhodes was then selected the very next pick after Werner. lol

 

[csmopar]

1 hour ago, Indyfan4life said:

We are in a rather vicarious position at the moment. But honestly, I trust whatever decision is made at this point. 

how so?

[Dr. T]

11 minutes ago, Rackeen305 said:

This Leighton Vander Esch reminds me of another OLB/DE the Colts once drafted when CB Xavier Rhodes was on the clock. Björn Werner. That 2013 draft, I was so sure the Colts would draft Rhodes. I remember telling my Barber prior to the draft, Don't be surprised if FSU CB Xavier Rhodes get drafted by my Colts. And it turned out that I was disappointed. Primarily because Rhodes was then selected the very next pick after Werner. lol

 

LVE is nothing like Werner, but I was also screaming at the TV that we did not pick Rhodes.

[Indyfan4life]

5 minutes ago, csmopar said:

how so?

A few reasons. 

 

We decide to stay put at 6 to pick Chubb, but he ends up being picked earlier. 

 

We trade down a bit further and Roquan goes off the board. Then what? I’m sure they have a contingency plan in place, and that’s why I’m okay with whatever we do. 

[ColtStrong2013]

When is the last time an Indianapolis defense had tremendous young talent at linebacker? Single position let alone the entire core? I like this thinking. 

 

I wonder if this is also a trend to keep an eye on with Ballard's drafting philosophy? Does he value drafting specific position groups? Last year there was an emphasis on defensive secondary. If he focuses this draft on linebacker core, what would be next years focus? 

[BProland85]

2 hours ago, Boiler_Colt said:

If Nelson is on the board and the Colts really like Smith more, I could see a trade down with the Bears at 8. Bears jump in front of Tampa to take Nelson and Colts take Smith. Would they give up a #2 or perhaps Jordan Howard and a pick?

 

Couldn't agree more. I think that is the spot where the Colts should aim to trade down and still get him. Also because Chicago's OL coach has ties to Quenton Nelson, so I could see them really wanting to get him. 

 

Honestly though, if Ballard stays put and doesn't trade down, I hope they would draft Nelson over Smith, but that's just me. Nelson is basically a can't miss prospect and widely considered possibly the best football player in this draft. 

[Clem-Dog]

46 minutes ago, Indyfan4life said:

A few reasons. 

 

We decide to stay put at 6 to pick Chubb, but he ends up being picked earlier. 

 

We trade down a bit further and Roquan goes off the board. Then what? I’m sure they have a contingency plan in place, and that’s why I’m okay with whatever we do. 

Even if Chubb is gone then one of Allen, Mayfield, Barkley or Nelson will be there at 6, and certain teams will bid on them until the selection is due.  Our draft position is still very good, just need to let it play out.

[Fisticuffs111]

13 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

Honestly though, if Ballard stays put and doesn't trade down, I hope they would draft Nelson over Smith, but that's just me. Nelson is basically a can't miss prospect and widely considered possibly the best football player in this draft. 

This could be a smokescreen or just bad info, but Breer seems to think the Colts won't take Nelson regardless. I could see this being true though, especially if Ballard really is gunning for LB's in this draft.

 

[Moosejawcolt]

Actually with the Colts  going with a quick release offense and a speed zone based defense, I think Smith is  the better option

[Hoose]

14 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

 

Couldn't agree more. I think that is the spot where the Colts should aim to trade down and still get him. Also because Chicago's OL coach has ties to Quenton Nelson, so I could see them really wanting to get him. 

 

Honestly though, if Ballard stays put and doesn't trade down, I hope they would draft Nelson over Smith, but that's just me. Nelson is basically a can't miss prospect and widely considered possibly the best football player in this draft. 

That’s my way of thinking as well. If you can’t make a trade take the best player and that is Nelson. Your LG for the next ten years. 

[Andrew Luck fan club]

I remember when people on this forum thought we were taking a RB with our 1st LoL. 

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One more piece of information by Pauline on a player the Colts have been linked with:

 

http://draftanalyst.com/nfl-draft-news-notes-april-11

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Several people have confided in me that additional and new red flags have popped up on former Florida receiver Antonio Callaway since the combine.

 

[Fisticuffs111]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

One more piece of information by Pauline on a player the Colts have been linked with:

 

http://draftanalyst.com/nfl-draft-news-notes-april-11

 

 

Yeah, I saw lots of Florida fans saying that there would surely be new red flags popping up closer to the draft. There it is.

[Shive]

13 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

This could be a smokescreen or just bad info, but Breer seems to think the Colts won't take Nelson regardless. I could see this being true though, especially if Ballard really is gunning for LB's in this draft.

 

I can see the comparison a bit. On-field talent aside, Smith is an amazing leader. He's the kind of guy your defense rallies behind.

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1 minute ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

 

Yeah, I saw lots of Florida fans saying that there would surely be new red flags popping up closer to the draft. There it is.

I love him as a prospect on the field, but at this point I'm in team "stay away from Callaway"

[Fisticuffs111]

3 minutes ago, Shive said:

I can see the comparison a bit. On-field talent aside, Smith is an amazing leader. He's the kind of guy your defense rallies behind.

Yeah, I'm thinking that's what the comparison is too, as well as their instincts possibly.

[chad72]

Weren't both Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman around 6'0" - 6'1" and in the 240-245 lb range and both played inside in the 3-4? 

 

I wonder if a comparison can be made to either of them for Roquan Smith. Both Willis and Bowman never came off the field, played all 3 downs and it helped deal with other teams going no huddle, and were good in pass coverage too.

[BProland85]

57 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

This could be a smokescreen or just bad info, but Breer seems to think the Colts won't take Nelson regardless. I could see this being true though, especially if Ballard really is gunning for LB's in this draft.

 

 

If Roquan Smith is close to what Ray Lewis was, then Ballard needs to turn that card in immediately. 

[Jeremy Waldon]

3 hours ago, PeterBowman said:

this ^^^

 

I agree that Chubb is the preferred choice. Also if this wasn't such a deep Guard draft I could see them taking Nelson. But it is very deep at guard and I can see them using one of their 2nd rounders on one.

 

Now, I'm interested to see what they'll do if Chubb is gone but they can't find a trade partner at 6.

 

Honestly, if they love a player that much, a few draft spots won't make that big a difference and they should just take him. But if they can trade back, still get Smith AND get extra picks then that's just icing on the cake.

I agree if Chubb isn't there, take smith or edmunds( if no amazing trades come this way) any of the 3 is an instant upgrade to the position 

[boo2202]

Agree this is why I've preferred smith over Edmunds. Smith's instincts seperates him.  

[Jeremy Waldon]

6 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

 

If Roquan Smith is close to what Ray Lewis was, then Ballard needs to turn that card in immediately. 

I believe Ballard will wait as long as possible to see if any good trades come in. JMO

[AZColt11]

Just remember my Colts brethren and sisters........this is the season of lies and rumors..........deceit and more lies.

[Fisticuffs111]

26 minutes ago, AZColt11 said:

Just remember my Colts brethren and sisters........this is the season of lies and rumors..........deceit and more lies.

Definitely, people should always keep that in mind during this time of year. I personally lean towards thinking there's legitimate interest in Smith though. The only way I could see it being a smokescreen is if we wanted to trade back but secretly wanted Edmunds, so they want to make Smith look good for any team who might want to take a LB before the pick we trade back to.

 

Otherwise I don't see what we gain out of hyping Smith.

[crazycolt1]

Tony Pauline is just another media hound looking for the hits. They all have different things they come up with to get  attention.

What Ballard is thinking and or doing none of us will know till it's done.

I took a look at Pauline's mock draft from last year and he was way off.

[Superman]

4 hours ago, Indyfan4life said:

A few reasons. 

 

We decide to stay put at 6 to pick Chubb, but he ends up being picked earlier. 

 

We trade down a bit further and Roquan goes off the board. Then what? I’m sure they have a contingency plan in place, and that’s why I’m okay with whatever we do. 

 

I think you meant "precarious." 

 

Although, as fans and armchair GMs, we are in a vicarious position... 

[MarquisJ]

I had roquan going 6 to us in my colts mock I don’t think that’s early for him at all turn on the tape 

[Defjamz26]

I’ll weigh in on this since I’ve been very vocal about not only our need to draft multiple young ATHLETIC LBs that can cover, but also on Smith and Edmunds.

 

First, If the plan is to draft an entire set of starting LBs, then I’m fully on board with it. Our situation at LB is that bad. It’s the worst position group on the roster. 

 

2nd, despite my love of Edmunds, I’m also a Smith fan. My issue is that he seems like a WILL in the NFL, and IDK if you draft a WILL that high. But maybe he can play inside.

 

The last thing I’ll say is that Ballard wanting to trade down is bogus IMO. He himself said that they feel like they can still get a premium player at 6. So if he likes Smith there, that’s where he’ll take him. Even though he said were still open, he also alluded to the fact that it’d take a significant offer to move him from 6. So if people think Ballard is going to drop 5-6 spots for an extra 3rd, they’re mistaken. Plus the 49ers, Raiders, Dolphins, Bears, and even Bills could all use a LB.

[ColtsBlueFL]

I heard Jonathan Vilma earlier on a radio interview today. He could not stop gushing about Roquan Smith.  He's amped up about that guy. Really amped.

[Shive]

2 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

2nd, despite my love of Edmunds, I’m also a Smith fan. My issue is that he seems like a WILL in the NFL, and IDK if you draft a WILL that high. But maybe he can play inside.

 

The last thing I’ll say is that Ballard wanting to trade down is bogus IMO. He himself said that they feel like they can still get a premium player at 6. So if he likes Smith there, that’s where he’ll take him. Even though he said were still open, he also alluded to the fact that it’d take a significant offer to move him from 6. So if people think Ballard is going to drop 5-6 spots for an extra 3rd, they’re mistaken. Plus the 49ers, Raiders, Dolphins, Bears, and even Bills could all use a LB.

I've seen a lot of people comparing Smith to Deion Jones, which I can definitely see. I think Smith would start initially at WILL and could eventually slide inside (a few years from now), once he's put on a bit more weight and has improved his block shedding technique.

 

Unless the Colts are trading down one spot so a team can draft a QB that dropped, they have to take Smith at 6 or they'll never get him. I don't see any way he makes it past the LB-needy teams like CHI, MIA, SF, or OAK.

[Indyfan4life]

6 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I think you meant "precarious." 

 

Although, as fans and armchair GMs, we are in a vicarious position... 

You’re right. I did, so I guess I was half correct. 

[Defjamz26]

2 hours ago, Shive said:

I've seen a lot of people comparing Smith to Deion Jones, which I can definitely see. I think Smith would start initially at WILL and could eventually slide inside (a few years from now), once he's put on a bit more weight and has improved his block shedding technique.

 

Unless the Colts are trading down one spot so a team can draft a QB that dropped, they have to take Smith at 6 or they'll never get him. I don't see any way he makes it past the LB-needy teams like CHI, MIA, SF, or OAK.

He’s already reportedly at 236-240. He ain’t putting on much more weight.