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Quenton Nelson "Generational Guard Prospect"


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In terms of his his total game and consensus rating among experts, Nelson might be the greatest football prospect to come out ever in the modern era, regardless of position. His lack of flaws that jump out on tape is astounding. You’re talking about a guy who almost never had a negative play and has all the intangibles. I still wouldn’t be thrilled at taking him at 6.

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On 4/9/2018 at 12:20 AM, NewColtsFan said:

 

Nelson keeps getting compared with the best of the best...

 

John Hannah...   the greatest guard of all-time.

 

Steve Hutchinson and Alan Fanaca...   I think they were on the all-Decade team and are widely expected to be in the Hall of Fame someday.

 

Now this story talks about Marshall Yanda and Zack Martin.      Pretty elite company.

 

I'd be thrilled if we can draft him.     But I'll understand if we don't....    this guard class is very good, and there should be a number of quality Day One starters in R2 and R3.     If Ballard grabs one of those guys,  I'll be OK with that as well.

 

You got a preference for one of 'em?

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2 hours ago, thatonefan said:

You got a preference for one of 'em?

 

Not really...    I'd prefer not Barkley...  otherwise I hope to get one of the very good, but perhaps not great backs in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

I'd love Nelson or Chubb...   And be almost as happy with Edmunds or Smith.. 

 

We have have so many needs that I'm all about maximizing our position..   get the best player while accumulating the most picks possible...

 

I was very happy with Ballard's first draft last year, and I love his big trade this year.   I think he has the Colts positioned for a win-win scenario...   looking forward to it.

 

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3 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

In terms of his his total game and consensus rating among experts, Nelson might be the greatest football prospect to come out ever in the modern era, regardless of position. His lack of flaws that jump out on tape is astounding. You’re talking about a guy who almost never had a negative play and has all the intangibles. I still wouldn’t be thrilled at taking him at 6.

 

Watch the Miami game. RJ McIntosh got him a couple times. 

 

But I agree with your post almost entirely.

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10 hours ago, ClaytonColt said:

But what attributes made McGlinchey a better fit in a more important position? I guess that's the basis of my question.

 

Even if McGlinchey is "better" then why not right tackle? It was good enough for Zach Martin.

 

Different players have different traits. This is like asking why a TE doesn't play receiver.

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23 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Different players have different traits. This is like asking why a TE doesn't play receiver.

To be fair TE and WR usually have different physical traits in terms of weight and to a lesser extent height.

 

They're also probably equally as important positions whereas in general terms tackle is viewed more crucial than a guard. Rightly or wrongly. Having a "generational" RB playing FB is probably a more extreme example the other way.

 

I personally would hate to spend a top 10 pick on a guard. I just don't see the value across the league.

 

However, if Nelson is such a "generational" linesman with so few weaknesses then what is stopping us moving him to tackle with Castanzo playing the other spot. To me that would have a much greater impact and if he's regarded so perfectly then why has it not been tried at ND and why isn't it possible?

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14 hours ago, ClaytonColt said:

To be fair TE and WR usually have different physical traits in terms of weight and to a lesser extent height.

 

They're also probably equally as important positions whereas in general terms tackle is viewed more crucial than a guard. Rightly or wrongly. Having a "generational" RB playing FB is probably a more extreme example the other way.

 

I personally would hate to spend a top 10 pick on a guard. I just don't see the value across the league.

 

However, if Nelson is such a "generational" linesman with so few weaknesses then what is stopping us moving him to tackle with Castanzo playing the other spot. To me that would have a much greater impact and if he's regarded so perfectly then why has it not been tried at ND and why isn't it possible?

 

The height and weight are all that makes TEs different from receivers. Receivers are expected to be faster, quicker, more explosive, better in space, and better when the ball is in the air. TEs are better blockers, including pass protection, more physical, better at making catches in traffic. How you value the two positions differs across the league; some teams value good TEs more than others, some value good receivers more than others. But contracts definitely suggest that receivers have greater value.

 

So if you were to say 'if Player X is really such a great prospect at TE, why didn't they play him at WR?' there would be a problem.

 

Same with guards vs tackles. The reason tackles have been valued more highly than guards is because they are more likely to have solo responsibilities in pass pro against explosive edge rushers. To handle those responsibilities, they have to have great length, great feet, and adequate power. That combination of traits -- 6'5" (or taller), 300+ pounds, 34 inch arms, ability to move well laterally and to play with power -- is kind of rare, leading to good tackles being paid more.

 

Guards have different responsibilities, requiring different traits. The combination of traits to be a good guard is less rare. Length and agility are less important, while power and toughness come to the fore. Larry Allen was one of the greatest players in NFL history, maybe the greatest guard ever, but he didn't have the traits to be a dominant tackle. 

 

Nelson -- who coincidentally has been compared to Larry Allen -- probably does have the traits to be a good tackle. He has good feet, good length, good spatial awareness. But he's basically perfect for playing guard. There was no reason to move him in college because he locked down his LG spot and dominated there for two seasons. Every good guard doesn't have to have the ability to play tackle, as if guard is just where you put the inferior linemen. Sometimes it is, but it's a different position with a different profile, and for the most part, guards are guards and tackles are tackles. 

 

As for value, I definitely agree with you. Ordinarily a guard isn't worthy of a top ten pick because of positional value. But I think guards are becoming more valuable as interior defensive linemen get better at penetrating, and as offenses scheme their protection to take pressure off of tackles and keep QBs clean (something Pagano's Colts didn't seem interested in doing). 

 

I also think there's a significant talent gap in this draft. Take out the QBs, and you have 4 elite prospects, IMO: Barkley, Chubb, Nelson, Fitzpatrick. To me, everyone else is clearly a tier below, still good prospects that should become good players, but not as good as these four. That being the case, I think Nelson is going in the top 8 for sure (probably top five, I don't see Denver passing on him  unless they take a QB), whereas he probably wouldn't have in previous years. 

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