Quenton Nelson "Generational Guard Prospect"

[Track Guy]

Pretty good look at prospect Quenton Nelson. I hope the top 5 talk turns out to be wrong, because I'd love to snag him at 6!

 

https://www.theringer.com/2018/4/5/17200244/quenton-nelson-notre-dame-draft-prospect-top-five-pick

[NewColtsFan]

 

Nelson keeps getting compared with the best of the best...

 

John Hannah...   the greatest guard of all-time.

 

Steve Hutchinson and Alan Fanaca...   I think they were on the all-Decade team and are widely expected to be in the Hall of Fame someday.

 

Now this story talks about Marshall Yanda and Zack Martin.      Pretty elite company.

 

I'd be thrilled if we can draft him.     But I'll understand if we don't....    this guard class is very good, and there should be a number of quality Day One starters in R2 and R3.     If Ballard grabs one of those guys,  I'll be OK with that as well.

 

[crazycolt1]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Nelson keeps getting compared with the best of the best...

 

John Hannah...   the greatest guard of all-time.

 

Steve Hutchinson and Alan Fanaca...   I think they were on the all-Decade team and are widely expected to be in the Hall of Fame someday.

 

Now this story talks about Marshall Yanda and Zack Martin.      Pretty elite company.

 

I'd be thrilled if we can draft him.     But I'll understand if we don't....    this guard class is very good, and there should be a number of quality Day One starters in R2 and R3.     If Ballard grabs on of those guys,  I'll be OK with that as well.

 

It wouldn't upset me one bit to take Nelson at #6 if we do. Having a guy like that on our line for the next 10-12 years is nothing but a plus.

I have watched a lot of film on him and I do see an exceptional player. He may very well be as good as any lineman I have seen for a very long time.

[NorthernBlue]

I’ve hit that point where I’d be okay with literally any prospect.

 

Nelson, Chubb, Barkley, Fitz, Edmunds, Ward, Smith, I want em all! Too bad we only get one.

 

Just don’t do something stupid like draft Calvin Ridley  

[chad72]

Outside QB, pass rusher, CB and OL can be the most expensive positions to pay for in FA. If you have a chance to get one of those at the top of the draft with a quality prospect under a rookie contract for 5 years, the value proposition is just too good to pass up, IMO. 

[Str8himalaya]

7 hours ago, NorthernBlue said:

I’ve hit that point where I’d be okay with literally any prospect.

 

Nelson, Chubb, Barkley, Fitz, Edmunds, Ward, Smith, I want em all! Too bad we only get one.

 

Just don’t do something stupid like draft Calvin Ridley  

I'm with you for the most part. I would take any of the following: Chubb, Nelson, Fitzpatrick, Edmunds, or Smith at #6. I would be alright with Barkley as well. I'm not a fan of Ward though, sure he's a good CB, but I don't see him in the right mold for our system and isn't on the Lattimore or Conley level of last year, IMO. A few more weeks and it's GO time, looking forward to how the first two days play out!

[MikeCurtis]

36 minutes ago, chad72 said:

Outside QB, pass rusher, CB and OL can be the most expensive positions to pay for in FA. If you have a chance to get one of those at the top of the draft with a quality prospect under a rookie contract for 5 years, the value proposition is just too good to pass up, IMO. 

Very valid!

[Moosejawcolt]

Before we pencil in Nelson as a possible pick at #6 let's do a little home work. Is he a scheme fit?  We need to know what type of offensive line scheme the colts plan on running.  It's like thinking our first pick will b a db if Chubb, Barkely and Nelson r gone.  This defensive scheme does not require high pick shut down corners.  I think our 1st pick will b the dline or linebacker no matter wat player is available at #6. I also don't think  they want to slide out of top 10. The Bills or the Dolphins , for example,may need to trade up to say #8 before the draft.  Then on draft day they could trade with the Colts and the Colts could still get that game changer they covet.  Just a thought

[chad72]

20 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Before we pencil in Nelson as a possible pick at #6 let's do a little home work. Is he a scheme fit?  We need to know what type of offensive line scheme the colts plan on running.  It's like thinking our first pick will b a db if Chubb, Barkely and Nelson r gone.  This defensive scheme does not require high pick shut down corners.  I think our 1st pick will b the dline or linebacker no matter wat player is available at #6. I also don't think  they want to slide out of top 10. The Bills or the Dolphins , for example,may need to trade up to say #8 before the draft.  Then on draft day they could trade with the Colts and the Colts could still get that game changer they covet.  Just a thought

 

I don't think they would have him rated this high if he were not versatile enough. He should fit in pretty much any scheme, IMO. He can get out on screens just fine, he is not just a mauler in run blocking, he handles interior rushers well too.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/2018/3/8/17074300/2018-nfl-draft-quenton-nelson-notre-dame-scouting-report-breakdown

 

http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/quenton-nelson-nfl-draft-great-player-combine

 

[Zoltan]

I don't like the pick up of Nelson at number 6, If I'm picking top 10 I want a playmaker, someone who can make a difference and OL while is very important is not a game changing position. A great example of this is Joe Thomas and Alex Mack both have/had great careers at important positions on the OL, but OL never takes over a game or make a key play to win a game.

 

Now what the criticism to my argument is that you have to have a good OL to win in the big games and that we need to protect Luck because our current OL is trash, but I would say is there a big enough gap between Nelson and  Hernandez/Wynn or even Price. That we would notice the difference on the OL. Especially if that means we get a Linebacker like Smith/Edmunds or a pass rusher like Chubb (if were lucky)

[BProland85]

1 minute ago, Zoltan said:

I don't like the pick up of Nelson at number 6, If I'm picking top 10 I want a playmaker, someone who can make a difference and OL while is very important is not a game changing position. A great example of this is Joe Thomas and Alex Mack both have/had great careers at important positions on the OL, but OL never takes over a game or make a key play to win a game.

 

Now what the criticism to my argument is that you have to have a good OL to win in the big games and that we need to protect Luck because our current OL is trash, but I would say is there a big enough gap between Nelson and  Hernandez/Wynn or even Price. That we would notice the difference on the OL. Especially if that means we get a Linebacker like Smith/Edmunds or a pass rusher like Chubb (if were lucky)

 

Well playmakers like a Zeke Elliott for example wouldn’t be near as impactful without a dominant OL in front of them like Dallas has. I’d completely be in favor of building that in Indy along with a complimentary defense to go along with it. 

[Zoltan]

5 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

 

Well playmakers like a Zeke Elliott for example wouldn’t be near as impactful without a dominant OL in front of them like Dallas has. I’d completely be in favor of building that in Indy along with a complimentary defense to go along with it. 

 

I would say Zeke could be just as impactful with a lesser OL, dude is a beast but that's beside the point.

 

I would counter that what has hindered the Cowboys has been a lack of pass rushers and an alternative to Lee on defense, which they probably will have a hard time finding since those are usually drafted high.

 

Also the only top 10 pick on there OL is Tyron Smith (#9) who is a LT which is the most important position on the OL, and that Zack Martin was a Tackle who was moved to G. I personally don't like guards as High picks because there isn't a good history of high picks at the position working out (Look at the combine reviews of Cooper and Warmack) because a Tackle who doesn't fit can usually moved to guard but a guard who doesn't work out is a complete bust

[Rackeen305]

1 hour ago, Zoltan said:

I don't like the pick up of Nelson at number 6, If I'm picking top 10 I want a playmaker, someone who can make a difference and OL while is very important is not a game changing position. A great example of this is Joe Thomas and Alex Mack both have/had great careers at important positions on the OL, but OL never takes over a game or make a key play to win a game.

 

Now what the criticism to my argument is that you have to have a good OL to win in the big games and that we need to protect Luck because our current OL is trash, but I would say is there a big enough gap between Nelson and  Hernandez/Wynn or even Price. That we would notice the difference on the OL. Especially if that means we get a Linebacker like Smith/Edmunds or a pass rusher like Chubb (if were lucky)

I completely hear your point. However, Why are the colts in this situation (Luck less)? We haven't addressed the Oline since Luck arrived. I believe the OG Nelson will be the pick because regardless of if luck will be ready come week 1 (I highly doubt it), It makes Jacoby Brissett better by giving him a passing lane or a better pocket to throw, Since he already has a slow release.. JMO.

[Coffeedrinker]

2 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Before we pencil in Nelson as a possible pick at #6 let's do a little home work. Is he a scheme fit?  We need to know what type of offensive line scheme the colts plan on running.  It's like thinking our first pick will b a db if Chubb, Barkely and Nelson r gone.  This defensive scheme does not require high pick shut down corners.  I think our 1st pick will b the dline or linebacker no matter wat player is available at #6. I also don't think  they want to slide out of top 10. The Bills or the Dolphins , for example,may need to trade up to say #8 before the draft.  Then on draft day they could trade with the Colts and the Colts could still get that game changer they covet.  Just a thought

What makes you think a lot of the posters have not done their home work?

 

And Nelson fits into any blocking scheme, he has the power for a power scheme, he has the quickness and balance for a gap scheme and he has the agility, hand punch and swivel head to play in a zone.

 

There are any number of players that will help the Colt day 1 if they are drafted... Nelson is one of those players.  Me, I think the pick should be used for a defensive player LB or DE but I won't be upset if they draft Nelson or Barkley for the O.

[Moosejawcolt]

I think that we have tried to address the oline in both free agency and the draft during Grigson's tenure.   The only problem is  that both were epic fails.  I really believe that they will have already addressed  the offensive line. This is due to the change in offensive schemes.  Quick release plays and getting rid of the ball faster will do wonders for the offensive lines play. 

[Moosejawcolt]

I do agree that Nelson looks good on tape.  I don't believe I said a lot of posters need to do their home work.  I just think before we pencil in a player as a colts pick....lets see if he is a scheme fit first. Nelson is already being fitted for his hall of fame jacket.   That's a lot of pressure on a player.  Anything short of all pro will b a disappointment if he is drafted at the #6 position. Because he is a guard,    he needs to b  extremely dominant to b considered worthy of a top 6 pick.

[Zoltan]

I'm just highly skeptical of Guards being drafted High, remember Chance Warmack was graded as a 95.9 (once in a lifetime player) and look where he is now.

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/chance-warmack?id=2539194

[BOTT]

Lord help this forum

[Track Guy]

2 hours ago, Zoltan said:

I'm just highly skeptical of Guards being drafted High, remember Chance Warmack was graded as a 95.9 (once in a lifetime player) and look where he is now.

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/chance-warmack?id=2539194

You can really find a bust at any position though. I hit O-lineman statistically have one of the lowest bust rates of first round picks. 

[DougDew]

18 hours ago, NorthernBlue said:

I’ve hit that point where I’d be okay with literally any prospect.

 

Nelson, Chubb, Barkley, Fitz, Edmunds, Ward, Smith, I want em all! Too bad we only get one.

 

Just don’t do something stupid like draft Calvin Ridley  

Yes.  That's where I'm at too.  It would depend upon trade-down offers.

 

I'm leaning towards Edmunds as my desired pick for 6.  Its a combination of having a huge hole of need in one area, and a high ceiling impactful player available to draft to fill it.  In all the other positions, we can get by with what we have for a year if we had too.  Today, I don't think we have a MIKE that can start.

[ColtJ82]

 

3 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I do agree that Nelson looks good on tape.  I don't believe I said a lot of posters need to do their home work.  I just think before we pencil in a player as a colts pick....lets see if he is a scheme fit first. Nelson is already being fitted for his hall of fame jacket.   That's a lot of pressure on a player.  Anything short of all pro will b a disappointment if he is drafted at the #6 position. Because he is a guard,    he needs to b  extremely dominant to b considered worthy of a top 6 pick.

I guess my take on it revolves around the difference in impact between a "hall of fame" guard and a good guard. I think there is a difference, but how critical is that difference to the overall success?

 

Ultimately, I wouldn't want any part of Nelson's 2nd contract if he pans out. I just wouldn't be interested in investing that portion of the salary cap to a guard (no matter what the salary cap is). Picking a guard at 6 is a huge commitment to that position and 2nd contract Salary allocation should he pan out.

 

If I am not mistaken, this year's 1st rounder will share a contract expiration date with Andrew Luck. Do we really want a guard eating up that cap when we "should be" contending and could allocate it to other areas? 

 

Generational talent or not, I don't take a guard top 10 for simple value and opportunity cost purposes. What do you give up to take a guard at 6.....stud Mike, OLB, DE.....or skill positions. You can find average to above average OL in later rounds. Get them in the development pipeline. Harder to do with skill positions 

 

Not real sure why I chose your post to respond to, lol....but there you have it. My opinion. 

[Superman]

Nelson is the safest pick in the draft, and has as much potential to be a multiple All Pro and eventual HOFer as anyone in the draft. He might be the flat out best player in the draft, to be honest.

 

But generational? Why, because he might go in the top five? 

 

First, the primary reason he might go in the top five is because there are no freakish edge rushers, no elite LTs, and no true lockdown corners (Minkah is a chess piece, Ward doesn't have the length most man teams covet). There aren't even any truly impressive WRs. (Compare this draft to 2014; Zach Martin fell to #16 because Clowney, Mack, Robinson, Matthews, Lewan, Watkins, Evans, Beckham, etc., were standout prospects.)

 

Second, his draft status won't make him a generational player. Andrew Norwell was undrafted, and now he's the highest paid interior lineman in the league. 

 

Last, this is the season of hyperbole. The only time we talk about interior linemen is draft season, when they are ready to sign a new deal, and when they get cut/traded. But there are a lot of really good to great interior linemen. Suggesting that Nelson is going to be the best of this generation is a bit much.

 

I will accept drafting him at #6, and I definitely expect him to be really good.

[chad72]

48 minutes ago, ColtJ82 said:

 

I guess my take on it revolves around the difference in impact between a "hall of fame" guard and a good guard. I think there is a difference, but how critical is that difference to the overall success?

 

Ultimately, I wouldn't want any part of Nelson's 2nd contract if he pans out. I just wouldn't be interested in investing that portion of the salary cap to a guard (no matter what the salary cap is). Picking a guard at 6 is a huge commitment to that position and 2nd contract Salary allocation should he pan out.

 

If I am not mistaken, this year's 1st rounder will share a contract expiration date with Andrew Luck. Do we really want a guard eating up that cap when we "should be" contending and could allocate it to other areas? 

 

Generational talent or not, I don't take a guard top 10 for simple value and opportunity cost purposes. What do you give up to take a guard at 6.....stud Mike, OLB, DE.....or skill positions. You can find average to above average OL in later rounds. Get them in the development pipeline. Harder to do with skill positions 

 

Not real sure why I chose your post to respond to, lol....but there you have it. My opinion. 

 

The same reason is why we need to pick him at 6, to get him while he is under a rookie contract. If he leaves like Norwell did with the Panthers, you try to get his drafted replacement ready again for a lower cost. That is what a good GM is supposed to plan for. Your statement makes a HUGE assumption that he will be a stud and be retained when he hits FA, not a sound reason, IMO. So, why draft a pass rusher then if you think he will be a stud or quality player? He will demand close to $15-20 mil./yr in free agency, so let us abandon that idea right now before he becomes a rookie. Do you see how that sounds? If you feel like your player is a stud that deserves to be paid like one when he hits FA and is one of your own, you pay him or plan for his replacement. Outside QB, no other position is exempt from leaving the original team in FA, IMO.

 

The other reasons, I can understand but not the cost one above. I strongly disagree just on that one.

[AZColt11]

I would rather have Chubb but I wouldn't be exactly holding my face in my hands if we get Nelson instead.  He is....no Luck is.......THAT important to this team.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2018/02/19/yes-a-notre-dame-lineman-leads-this-years-top-50-nfl-draft-prospects/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.4a3d8bad60d9

[crestmount]

I can see 3 QBs, Barkley and Chubb going in the first 5 picks, leaving Nelson as a no-brainer.  As far as him not being an impact player--every game that goes by with Andrew Luck not being put on his butt is an impact

[southwest1]

Wait, so according to Robert Mays, the author of the original article, if we miss out on Barkley or Nelson, INDY will have dropped the ball on Spider Man & Dirty Hairy for 2018?

 

"Go ahead [Nelson], make my day." 

[Zoltan]

7 hours ago, Track Guy said:

You can really find a bust at any position though. I hit O-lineman statistically have one of the lowest bust rates of first round picks. 

 

Yeah but Cooper and Warmack were the last 2 guards to be chosen in the top 10 since 2002 so I would say comparing them to Nelson is a fair one. Especially with how high Warmack and Nelson are/were rated and even the Guard drafted 2nd overall in 2001 Leonard Davis was one of the most penalized lineman in the league when he played

[Zoltan]

Honestly I would say the last Guard to be drafted top 10 and not be a bust is Jonathan Ogden in 1996

[ClaytonColt]

It's been presented like Nelson is almost the perfect lineman and from my untrained eye he looks very good.

 

On pretty much every team the best lineman plays at one of the tackle spots. Why has Nelson only ever played guard? What are his weaknesses that mean he's not been put in the real blue chip position?

[crazycolt1]

4 hours ago, ClaytonColt said:

It's been presented like Nelson is almost the perfect lineman and from my untrained eye he looks very good.

 

On pretty much every team the best lineman plays at one of the tackle spots. Why has Nelson only ever played guard? What are his weaknesses that mean he's not been put in the real blue chip position?

Because Nelson played beside Mike McGlinchey. Another potential top 10 draft choice.

[Fluke_33]

On 4/9/2018 at 2:20 AM, NorthernBlue said:

I’ve hit that point where I’d be okay with literally any prospect.

 

Nelson, Chubb, Barkley, Fitz, Edmunds, Ward, Smith, I want em all! Too bad we only get one.

 

Just don’t do something stupid like draft Calvin Ridley  

Agreed.  I’m more excited about the second round

[Valpo2004]

18 hours ago, Zoltan said:

I don't like the pick up of Nelson at number 6, If I'm picking top 10 I want a playmaker, someone who can make a difference and OL while is very important is not a game changing position. A great example of this is Joe Thomas and Alex Mack both have/had great careers at important positions on the OL, but OL never takes over a game or make a key play to win a game.

 

Now what the criticism to my argument is that you have to have a good OL to win in the big games and that we need to protect Luck because our current OL is trash, but I would say is there a big enough gap between Nelson and  Hernandez/Wynn or even Price. That we would notice the difference on the OL. Especially if that means we get a Linebacker like Smith/Edmunds or a pass rusher like Chubb (if were lucky)

 OL never takes over a game or makes a key play to win a game.

 

WHAT????  Are you freaking serious?

 

They may not carry the ball but the difference between a defender meeting an RB 3 yards in the backfield and meeting them 8 yards past the line of scrimmage is OL!

 

OL take over games.  They win games. 

[oldunclemark]

If the top 3 picks are QBs, the next three teams Cleveland, Denver and us..

...get Barkley, Chubb or Nelson.....at low price for 4 or 5 years

 

Nobody loses there..

[oldunclemark]

1 hour ago, Fluke_33 said:

Agreed.  I’m more excited about the second round

Hopefully other teams agree with you.

.........and then watch for teams like the Colts to trade up into the back end of the first round

[Pelt]

On 4/8/2018 at 11:20 PM, NewColtsFan said:

I'd be thrilled if we can draft him.     But I'll understand if we don't....    this guard class is very good, and there should be a number of quality Day One starters in R2 and R3.     If Ballard grabs one of those guys,  I'll be OK with that as well.

 

I agree.

 

I don't know what Ballard's ultimate plan is for building this roster, but I think pass rush and O-Line are the biggest weaknesses on this team. I also understand that we need to address the linebacker corps as well.

 

If we don't land Nelson or Chubb with the sixth pick, I hope we're trading back and at least nabbing a couple of these very good guards with any extra picks we may acquire.

 

Just my own opinion, of course, but I'd be slightly disappointed in getting a CB with any of our first few picks. If we can't get any pressure on the QB, it wouldn't matter if we had an entire defensive backfield of Dion Sanders if the QB has 7 seconds to stand back in the pocket and wait for the coverage to break down - which it surely would.

 

A QB under constant pressure will make our defensive backfield look even better.

 

In my opinion, the priorities should be about protecting our QB and getting pressure on the opposing QB.

[Zoltan]

4 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

 OL never takes over a game or makes a key play to win a game.

 

WHAT????  Are you freaking serious?

 

They may not carry the ball but the difference between a defender meeting an RB 3 yards in the backfield and meeting them 8 yards past the line of scrimmage is OL!

 

OL take over games.  They win games. 

23 hours ago, Zoltan said:

I don't like the pick up of Nelson at number 6, If I'm picking top 10 I want a playmaker, someone who can make a difference and OL while is very important is not a game changing position. A great example of this is Joe Thomas and Alex Mack both have/had great careers at important positions on the OL, but OL never takes over a game or make a key play to win a game.

 

Now what the criticism to my argument is that you have to have a good OL to win in the big games and that we need to protect Luck because our current OL is trash, but I would say is there a big enough gap between Nelson and  Hernandez/Wynn or even Price. That we would notice the difference on the OL. Especially if that means we get a Linebacker like Smith/Edmunds or a pass rusher like Chubb (if were lucky)

 

You're generalizing what I said I did state that the offensive line is very important but One offensive lineman isn't a gamechanger, especially a Guard. 

[ClaytonColt]

7 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

Because Nelson played beside Mike McGlinchey. Another potential top 10 draft choice.

But what attributes made McGlinchey a better fit in a more important position? I guess that's the basis of my question.

 

Even if McGlinchey is "better" then why not right tackle? It was good enough for Zach Martin.

[crazycolt1]

Really?  Nelson is projected to be the best G to come out in the draft for years. Can't you just accept that for what it is?

[ClaytonColt]

41 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Really?  Nelson is projected to be the best G to come out in the draft for years. Can't you just accept that for what it is?

I do. Projections are not always correct though as we all know.

 

I just thought it was a fair observation. I can't see any obvious physical reason why he wouldn't have played tackle so it's seems bit strange that this generational linesman was put in a lesser spot and is projected to stay there. It seems strange since he's generally accepted to have few weaknesses.

[Track Guy]

1 hour ago, ClaytonColt said:

I do. Projections are not always correct though as we all know.

 

I just thought it was a fair observation. I can't see any obvious physical reason why he wouldn't have played tackle so it's seems bit strange that this generational linesman was put in a lesser spot and is projected to stay there. It seems strange since he's generally accepted to have few weaknesses.

 

I think basically it's because Nelson is better at guard than tackle (and given that they had McGlinchey, they weren't in need to force him to play tackle.) He'd probably be adequate protecting the edge, but he's absolutely dominating on the interior. Quenton Nelson weighed in 17 pounds heavier than Martin did in the draft process. I think compared with Martin, he's slightly less fleet of foot and slightly more powerful. I think Nelson will be as good as Martin - and likely even be better actually. His intangibles and understanding of how to play the position from both a physical and strategic stand point are really rare.