Mel Kiper: Colts & Dolphins in deep discussion of trade

[1959Colts]

 

This article was posted yesterday and mentions Kiper/McShay giving their thoughts on Mock Draft...

 

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article207909354.html

 

It's all speculation.

The piece says McShay is the one who sees Miami trading. Not Kiper.

 

 

Quote

 

...And they have very, very different opinions on how the Miami Dolphins’ first two rounds are going to play out.

 

Kiper has the Dolphins sticking at No. 11 and taking Florida State safety Derwin James and then selecting Michigan defensive tackle Maurice Hurst at No. 42.

 

McShay, however, has Miami moving itself into the quarterback talks again. He has the Dolphins trading their first- and second-round picks with the Indianapolis Colts to move up to No. 6. His prediction for whom the Dolphins take there: Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield.

 

“If Denver passes on Mayfield, I think Miami pounces and moves up to get him,” McShay explained. “Moving up wouldn’t bankrupt Miami from a draft-capital standpoint. The Dolphins like Ryan Tannehill when he’s healthy, but they can’t trust him to stay on the field.”...

 

 

I wonder the accuracy of this report. Has anyone confirmed what Kiper actually said?

[WoolMagnet]

3 hours ago, Alex22 said:

 

Who even is that Allbright girl? ......

 

Seems to just talk nonsense on his twitter 

"All"bright is apparently "Not So"bright.

[Creekside]

6 hours ago, Fat Clemenza said:

 Nobody's trading for #6 until they know a starting QB not named Jackson will be there. 

 

The two teams "have discussed multiple scenarios".......almost certainly means they are talking about a deal on draft day when both teams see how the board falls....

[BOTT]

45 minutes ago, PowerballBlue said:

In a 3-4, you have to have more blue chip players at many positions.  Any holes cause the whole thing to fall apart.  You need elite press corners, elite linebackers, and an elite nose tackle.  That starts to add up in dollars and draft picks.

Yeah, I'm not buying that. 

[needanoline63]

I want 5 picks in the 2nd round. I’ll trade down again in the first. Hopefully it’s not lower then 12. But more 2nd round picks would be nice

[Luck 4 president]

Dolphins have made a lot of questionable moves lately, always getting ripped off it seems like. I wouldn’t mind if we ripped them off too. 

[needanoline63]

We better get a first round pick no matter what. I hope the bills give up there two firsts or Patriots. Two first rounders and one more 2nd round pick would be great

[1959Colts]

NFL-Trade-Value-Chart

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

[jackinbox]

5 hours ago, DougDew said:

Possibly.  I don't think Ballard is in love with Chubb, Barkley, or Nelson and feels like has to get one of those three players or else the first round is a failure.  Which has been the opinion of about 75% of the forum for the past 6 weeks. 

 

In fairness, 75% of this forum will also say whatever Ballard does on draft day is pure genius....no matter how good or bad it is in reality.

[CR91]

Dolphins are out of their mind if they think they'll keep their first and move up to 6

[DougDew]

28 minutes ago, 1959Colts said:

NFL-Trade-Value-Chart

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

To save readers the math, our #6 is worth MIA #11 and their 3rd and 4th.  That's it folks.  If they give us their 2nd instead of the 3 and 4 they would be giving us too much.

 

If you throw in the idea they are trading up for a QB, then price negotiations change things, but as far as the chart, what people think we can get for 6 is way too high.

 

Of course, I'd trade to 11 for just the extra 2nd since the top 7 position players are about the same, top 8 including Vita Vea who we probably don't want, so there's no advantage for staying at 6 over moving to 11. JMO of course.

[LockeDown]

Ballard said before the draft last year, they identified Hooker as possibly falling to them and he was right.  I think he knows who will probably be there at 6 this year as well.  That being said, Chubb worries me a bit.  CB been talking speed in this draft and we know Chubb isn't the fastest guy at his position. Barkley will probably be off the board and that leaves Nelson.  CB might value a defensive speedster more than a great guard. 

[Dilger85]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

To save readers the math, our #6 is worth MIA #11 and their 3rd and 4th.  That's it folks.  If they give us their 2nd instead of the 3 and 4 they would be giving us too much.

 

If you throw in the idea they are trading up for a QB, then price negotiations change things, but as far as the chart, what people think we can get for 6 is way too high.

 

Of course, I'd trade to 11 for just the extra 2nd since the top 7 position players are about the same, top 8 including Vita Vea who we probably don't want, so there's no advantage for staying at 6 over moving to 11. JMO of course.

That chart goes out the window when QBs are concerned. We got way more value than the 3rd was worth from the Jets according to that chart. I don’t think that chart plays as much as it used to

[bsteves]

13 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Yeah, me too.

 

Swap of the 1st round picks, a 2nd and a future 2nd is what I would ask as Ballard for moving down from #6 to #11.

 

 

Not enough imo. Not even close.

[ColtStrong2013]

2 minutes ago, bsteves said:

Not enough imo. Not even close.

Agreed. 

 

We move back 3 spots and get three 2nd rounders from the Jets... moving out of the top 10 should warrant the same at the very minimum...

[Narcosys]

14 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Yeah, me too.

 

Swap of the 1st round picks, a 2nd and a future 2nd is what I would ask as Ballard for moving down from #6 to #11.

 

 

That's what's he got for moving down 3 spots... I think it could include a future first. 

[Dark Superman]

Send us Robert Quinn and the 11th overall pick and the Dolphins get the Colts 6th and a future mid-round pick. I'll even take Kenny Stills.

[Dark Superman]

They can keep James at RT for that price. Send the Colts Quinn and the Colts can draft a guard or tackle in the second round. Take Guice with the 11th overall pick or maybe Ridley.

[Dark Superman]

I'm hoping the next trade the Colts makes involves them receiving a very good player. Lol

[rockywoj]

8 hours ago, DougDew said:

To save readers the math, our #6 is worth MIA #11 and their 3rd and 4th.  That's it folks.  If they give us their 2nd instead of the 3 and 4 they would be giving us too much.

 

If you throw in the idea they are trading up for a QB, then price negotiations change things, but as far as the chart, what people think we can get for 6 is way too high.

 

Of course, I'd trade to 11 for just the extra 2nd since the top 7 position players are about the same, top 8 including Vita Vea who we probably don't want, so there's no advantage for staying at 6 over moving to 11. JMO of course.

Of course, to be fair, your point assumes that this “draft value chart” is God.  I think of it as more of just an arbitrary “guideline”, one that time and time again is NOT adhered to. 

[lollygagger8]

Although I really want them to pick Nelson at #6, I'd be ok with this trade if we get their RT and some additional picks. 

 

Wait until draft day though. Teams will give up more for who they want when they are time crunched and on the clock 

[DougDew]

7 hours ago, Dilger85 said:

That chart goes out the window when QBs are concerned. We got way more value than the 3rd was worth from the Jets according to that chart. I don’t think that chart plays as much as it used to

I agree.  But our pick 6 today would not guarantee a QB.  Its just the 6th pick.  If it was pick 4, like pick 3, where a desirable QB was guaranteed to be there, then the pick becomes an actual QB pick and the value goes higher than the chart.

 

I think that's why many here are saying to wait until draft day.  I see the point of the value increase, but it could also end up with teams feeling desperate and making a better deal for pick 2 and 4.  What I'm saying is I would take the chart value today, try to get the RT out of it, rather than risking that no team wants the 6th on draft day because the QBs are gone.

 

Another has said that MIA is probably discussing scenarios for draft day. That's probably most likely. If I were MIA, I would wait to trade on draft day. 

 

If I were Ballard, I'd press for the value chart plus the RT today and sell MIA the notion that moving up 2 spots on draft day plus what they give us now would be less expensive than jumping from 11 to 4 on draft day when the last QB is sitting there. 

[ColtsBlueFL]

17 hours ago, Fat Clemenza said:

I don't see this trade or any trade for #6 happening until draft day and the Colts, or whoever ends up at #5, is on the clock and one or two of the top 4 qbs is still available.

 

Jets knew a QB they liked would be there at 3. Nobody's trading for #6 until they know a starting QB not named Jackson will be there. 

 

Adam Gase loves Mayfield.  That's it.  That guy has to be there.

 

17 hours ago, pgt_rob said:

Ballard has been sitting on a mound of gold. I'd just wait until draft day and see who wants to pay up.

 

Dolphins still have Ryan Tannehill (though he now has a knee injury history), Gase has removed the riff-raff and created the locker room culture 'he wants' (Cutler won't be part of the Miami plan in 2018 either), and supposedly the ONLY QB he is interested in is Baker Mayfield.  We will see.

[ColtsBlueFL]

9 hours ago, Luck 4 president said:

Dolphins have made a lot of questionable moves lately, always getting ripped off it seems like. I wouldn’t mind if we ripped them off too. 

 

Gase has said he finally has the locker room and it's culture the way he desires.  He will be stingy about those that go here on out.

 

It almost guaranteed there will be no more trades for the Colts until draft day.  But is CB lining up potential draft day trades with teams calling now? You betcha..

[ColtStrong2013]

1 hour ago, rockywoj said:

Of course, to be fair, your point assumes that this “draft value chart” is God.  I think of it as more of just an arbitrary “guideline”, one that time and time again is NOT adhered to. 

Exactly.... because that trade with the Jets was perfectly aligned on the value chart... 

[Deadpool]

22 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

I have yet to see this posted on this forum... someone guide me if I am wrong. 

 

Has anyone else seen anything about this?

I doubt the colts trade completely out of the first round. honestly I think they get Miami's 1st and 2nd rounder for # 6 if this is indeed real. But what is interesting though is Miami runs a 4-3 defense as well. But i do not see anyone who looks enticing enough to give up a 1st rounder for and not get their first rounder in return. So this has me wondering if the colts  will trade back and go after Virginia Techs Tremaine Edmunds, UGA Roquan Smith, or UTSA Marcus Davenport. All three would still be a good addition to the defense. 

 

I still say trade back with Buffalo. I just dont see the Giants trading back, take both the 12th and 22nd picks from buffalo for the the 6th pick.....

 

12 - Davenport

22 - McGlinchey

36 - Price

37 - Donte Jackson (DB from LSU)

49 - Rashaad Penny 

67 - Equanimeous St. Brown

 

BUT wait until draft day before doing it. 4 QB's could go in the first 5 picks. and if not, then the 6th overall pick becomes more enticing and could be very expensive to obtain. 

 

 

[Deadpool]

1 hour ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Adam Gase loves Mayfield.  That's it.  That guy has to be there.

 

 

Dolphins still have Ryan Tannehill (though he now has a knee injury history), Gase has removed the riff-raff and created the locker room culture 'he wants' (Cutler won't be part of the Miami plan in 2018 either), and supposedly the ONLY QB he is interested in is Baker Mayfield.  We will see.

 

Yeah I am willing to bet the dolphins end up getting the 6th pick. I mean if you were the coach of the dolphins, would you really want to go into New England or Buffalo with Osweiler as your QB? I say this because like you said Tannehill has an injury history with his knee...... I honestly do not know what is worst, the Ravens signing RG3 or the dolphins getting Osweiler. 

[Narcosys]

I have significant doubts about this. The only thing I've found is what's posted here. 

[Deadpool]

8 hours ago, bsteves said:

Not enough imo. Not even close.

I agree, IF Miami wants the #6 pick, and I were ballard. I'd be saying this years and next years first rounder plus your second rounder for the 6th pick. Take it or leave it. chances are they leave it, but if you want a QB that bad, you will do it. IF they don't take the offer come draft day, then when the pick comes, call Buffalo and say both of your first rounders for # 6 if a QB is still on the board. 

[Myles]

5 hours ago, DougDew said:

I agree.  But our pick 6 today would not guarantee a QB.  Its just the 6th pick.  If it was pick 4, like pick 3, where a desirable QB was guaranteed to be there, then the pick becomes an actual QB pick and the value goes higher than the chart.

 

 

 

 

If I were Ballard, I'd press for the value chart plus the RT today and sell MIA the notion that moving up 2 spots on draft day plus what they give us now would be less expensive than jumping from 11 to 4 on draft day when the last QB is sitting there. 

I'd wait for draft day and see what happens.     It's possible that Cleveland trades out of the 4 spot.   That leaves Denver's pick as the wildcard.    Would they take Chub, Barkely, Nelson or someone else.  

[DougDew]

20 minutes ago, Myles said:

I'd wait for draft day and see what happens.     It's possible that Cleveland trades out of the 4 spot.   That leaves Cleveland's pick as the wildcard.    Would they take Chub, Barkely, Nelson or someone else.  

I think the only way CLEV trades out of 4 is if the other team wants a QB.  If that happens on draft day, 20 minutes before we're on the clock, it removes one QB (possibly the last one) and one trading partner (who may think the last QB will fall, or can get him by trading up to only 7, 8, or 9).  We run the risk of having to select one of 7 similarly talented players at 6 instead of 5 or 6 picks later.  I don't think the upside of waiting is worth the risk, but I'm the type that likes to secure my profits when I can.  

[Dilger85]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

I agree.  But our pick 6 today would not guarantee a QB.  Its just the 6th pick.  If it was pick 4, like pick 3, where a desirable QB was guaranteed to be there, then the pick becomes an actual QB pick and the value goes higher than the chart.

 

I think that's why many here are saying to wait until draft day.  I see the point of the value increase, but it could also end up with teams feeling desperate and making a better deal for pick 2 and 4.  What I'm saying is I would take the chart value today, try to get the RT out of it, rather than risking that no team wants the 6th on draft day because the QBs are gone.

 

Another has said that MIA is probably discussing scenarios for draft day. That's probably most likely. If I were MIA, I would wait to trade on draft day. 

 

If I were Ballard, I'd press for the value chart plus the RT today and sell MIA the notion that moving up 2 spots on draft day plus what they give us now would be less expensive than jumping from 11 to 4 on draft day when the last QB is sitting there. 

Totally agree and understand your context now, the pick would be more valuable on draft day than it is right now, I agree.  Also, you could have the possibility of multiple teams looking to trade up to get that last quarterback on draft day which increases the value even more.

[Dilger85]

8 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think the only way CLEV trades out of 4 is if the other team wants a QB.  If that happens on draft day, 20 minutes before we're on the clock, it removes one QB (possibly the last one) and one trading partner (who may think the last QB will fall, or can get him by trading up to only 7, 8, or 9).  We run the risk of having to select one of 7 similarly talented players at 6 instead of 5 or 6 picks later.  I don't think the upside of waiting is worth the risk, but I'm the type that likes to secure my profits when I can.  

I can see this argument, if you are risk averse, then yes you get your package now and don't worry about the craziness of draft day.  I would move off of 6 for 11, Miami 2nd rounder, Miami 4th rounder.  I would ask for additional but that would be my bare minimum.  You have to look at it from Miami's perspective as well, if they would make the move now then they are taking the most risk so the cost would not be as high today.  However the longer we wait then the risk seems to switch over to the Colts.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  This could also be an attempt by another team to get Buffalo to trade higher than 6.

[DougDew]

11 minutes ago, Dilger85 said:

I can see this argument, if you are risk averse, then yes you get your package now and don't worry about the craziness of draft day.  I would move off of 6 for 11, Miami 2nd rounder, Miami 4th rounder.  I would ask for additional but that would be my bare minimum.  You have to look at it from Miami's perspective as well, if they would make the move now then they are taking the most risk so the cost would not be as high today.  However the longer we wait then the risk seems to switch over to the Colts.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  This could also be an attempt by another team to get Buffalo to trade higher than 6.

I think why I'm advocating that is because I no longer see much of a difference between the 7 players mentioned for who we could get at 6.  I don't think Chubb is a once-in-a-lifetime DE, and while Barkley and Nelson are probably better players than the other 5, their positional value knocks them down a bit.  So I see pick 6 and pick 11 being about the same for us.  Any of them would also fill a need.  So moving back 5 spots means nothing, so getting something now is pure profit.

 

If we liked a player at 6 who we didn't think would be there at 11, then I would need more for the pick. 

[Dilger85]

16 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think why I'm advocating that is because I no longer see much of a difference between the 7 players mentioned for who we could get at 6.  I don't think Chubb is a once-in-a-lifetime DE, and while Barkley and Nelson are probably better players than the other 5, their positional value knocks them down a bit.  So I see pick 6 and pick 11 being about the same for us.  Any of them would also fill a need.  So moving back 5 spots means nothing, so getting something now is pure profit.

 

If we liked a player at 6 who we didn't think would be there at 11, then I would need more for the pick. 

I agree on that point as well, I would be good with anyone in that range.  I would still look to maximize the value of the 6th pick regardless of my evaluations on the prospects.

[richard pallo]

7 hours ago, DarkSuperman said:

They can keep James at RT for that price. Send the Colts Quinn and the Colts can draft a guard or tackle in the second round. Take Guice with the 11th overall pick or maybe Ridley.

There is nothing wrong with that price IMO.  9.3m for a 5th. yr option.  He gets a new contract after this year anyway.  The market for OL jumped considerably after this FA period.  Ballard tried to get a couple of the OL FA's and wouldn't overpay.  Starting caliber OL are getting paid now.  Especially tackles.  I trust Ballard to work out the contracts and cap. If he does come over then Ballard is okay with the price.  That's good enough for me. 

[Myles]

3 hours ago, DougDew said:

I think why I'm advocating that is because I no longer see much of a difference between the 7 players mentioned for who we could get at 6.  I don't think Chubb is a once-in-a-lifetime DE, and while Barkley and Nelson are probably better players than the other 5, their positional value knocks them down a bit.  So I see pick 6 and pick 11 being about the same for us.  Any of them would also fill a need.  So moving back 5 spots means nothing, so getting something now is pure profit.

 

If we liked a player at 6 who we didn't think would be there at 11, then I would need more for the pick. 

I really like Nelson and am certain he won't be there at 11.     Chubb or Barkely would be good picks too.   It depends how Ballard has them ranked.   If no trade happens on draft day and he has to choose the player of his liking at 6 (the player he has #1 on his board), it is still a win.   If he trades back and ends up getting the player he had #5 on his board, it is not awful, but not great.   Especially if a middle 2nd round pick is all he got in addition.  

 

Either way, I hope the draft picks go well.  

[Dark Superman]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

I really like Nelson and am certain he won't be there at 11.     Chubb or Barkely would be good picks too.   It depends how Ballard has them ranked.   If no trade happens on draft day and he has to choose the player of his liking at 6 (the player he has #1 on his board), it is still a win.   If he trades back and ends up getting the player he had #5 on his board, it is not awful, but not great.   Especially if a middle 2nd round pick is all he got in addition.  

 

Either way, I hope the draft picks go well.  

Agreed. Nelson won't get past Chicago at 8.

[OffensivelyPC]

It would take the 11th and a future 1st if you ask me.  I wouldn't do it for for less.

[poilucelt]

think if the Colts keep #6 it's because Chubb is still there or they've decided, as some scouts believe, that Tremaine Edmunds has superstar potential (which he might, but he doesn't turn 20 until after the draft and Luck is about to turn 29, so can the Colts afford to wait a few years for Edmunds to blossom?)

 

so if Chubb's gone by #6, and 1 of the 4 QB's is still there, a trade with Buffalo or Miami could make sense. A foundational player like Smith, Fitzpatrick, James or Ward should still be there at #11 or #12, and getting more 2nd round picks would be a major plus.

 

If anything, the Colts' future success in the Luck era will depend as much, if not more, on their 2nd, 3rd and even 4th round picks as it will on their 1st round picks. In this year's draft, there should be a number of promising OLs, LBs, WRs, RBs and CBs in Round Two--and the Colts need help at all of those positions.