Mel Kiper: Colts & Dolphins in deep discussion of trade

[Coltsman1788]

2 minutes ago, TKnight24 said:

Speed is the word buzzing around the Colts facility as the draft approaches. The new scheme really depends on it from what I’m understanding. Roquan is definitely speed 

How excited should we really be about the Colts reverting back to their small, fast, cover 2 defensive ways?  More problems stopping the run and more corners playing off coverage. Hard to get fired up over that. Drove me crazy in the Manning era.  However, we did manage to win a Super Bowl with that scheme so the key will be getting the playmakers necessary to make the scheme work. If we don’t then watching this defense every week will be an excercise of  frustration.   If trading back again helps Ballard get the talent needed to run this scheme effectively then so be it.  

[TKnight24]

1 minute ago, Coltsman1788 said:

How excited should we really be about the Colts reverting back to their small, fast, cover 2 defensive ways?  More problems stopping the run and more corners playing off coverage. Hard to get fired up over that. Drove me crazy in the Manning era.  However, we did manage to win a Super Bowl with that scheme so the key will be getting the playmakers necessary to make the scheme work. If we don’t then watching this defense every week will be an excercise of  frustration.   If trading back again helps Ballard get the talent needed to run this scheme effectively then so be it.  

That was my concern too. Watching Arian Foster & MJD run circles around us got old very quick 

 

I think this time will be different though. We still have Al Woods and a couple other bigger guys. I don’t mind having speed, but there better be some size there with it. Playoffs come around, teams will run the ball more. Gotta have physical fronts 

 

But I’m trusting in Ballard and the coaches to do this the right way

[chad72]

13 minutes ago, Coltsman1788 said:

How excited should we really be about the Colts reverting back to their small, fast, cover 2 defensive ways?  More problems stopping the run and more corners playing off coverage. Hard to get fired up over that. Drove me crazy in the Manning era.  However, we did manage to win a Super Bowl with that scheme so the key will be getting the playmakers necessary to make the scheme work. If we don’t then watching this defense every week will be an excercise of  frustration.   If trading back again helps Ballard get the talent needed to run this scheme effectively then so be it.  

 

The problem was the middle and the safety tandem.

 

Getting Booger for the middle, moving Rob Morris for SAM, and having the safety tandem of Sanders and Bethea both healthy all happened at the same time, with Freeney and Mathis healthy for the whole playoff run. Still, Brady and the Patriots passed and ran against us just fine, the only shootout we had to truly play against a good offensive team though it was our DEs that forced a lot of 3rd down stops in the 2nd half for our comeback in the 2006 AFCCG. We just did not have quality bodies behind the starters and that was Polian's fault. Quality depth on DL and secondary goes a long way in the current NFL. 

 

Lynch and Dexter Jackson, plus Derrick Brooks and Warren Sapp in the middle all made the Tampa Bay Bucs' D tick. You need the push in the middle to make the DEs more effective, and need a DE that would demand a double team. Plus, against elite Ds, need a very good safety tandem to break up or pick off passes. As long as those boxes are checked, and the scheme is a tad more aggressive than under the Dungy era, we should have better results this time.

 

Our strength was pass D then, now we do not know if our D has a strength that will buckle when going against an elite team. We are still installing our scheme and players, have to be patient, I guess, and not expect out of the world results right away.

[richard pallo]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Yup.  You are the first source for where I read it and this has been in my mind since.  Good call.  I say for pick 6 we get pick 11, their 2nd, James, and next year's 3rd.

 

And I'd do that deal before draft day to secure it, and let it roll on who falls to #11.  We at least save a pick this year by getting a RT out of the deal.

 

I'd rather have that deal with pick #11 today than waiting for draft day to get Buffalo's pick #12.

I agree with you 100%.  Do the trade now and get the starting RT and the picks.  If you wait until draft day you are taking a big gamble that Buffalo or Miami will not trade with Cleveland or Denver to move in front of us. Both could for that matter.  Ballard has said he wants to build the team through the draft.  I believe he wants to use our pick to acquire more picks.  We could wind up having to use the pick which will get us one starter for sure.  But dropping back to 11 or 12 still gets us a starter and more picks.  I would do the sure trade now and be happy with 11 or 12 and all the extra picks.  Not worth the risk of waiting and possibly losing out acquiring more picks.  Ballard didn't wait until draft day to trade our 3rd. pick.  He was happy with the haul and I think he would do it before draft day again if he was given a good offer.  He doesn't strike me as a gambling man. 

[dodsworth]

26 minutes ago, Coltsman1788 said:

How excited should we really be about the Colts reverting back to their small, fast, cover 2 defensive ways?  More problems stopping the run and more corners playing off coverage. Hard to get fired up over that. Drove me crazy in the Manning era.  However, we did manage to win a Super Bowl with that scheme so the key will be getting the playmakers necessary to make the scheme work. If we don’t then watching this defense every week will be an excercise of  frustration.   If trading back again helps Ballard get the talent needed to run this scheme effectively then so be it.  

We all are a bit snake bit by the defense of the Manning era, but alot of

the problem lies with the defensive issues of that time was Polian

drafting more towards offensive toys for #18 to play with than defensive

pieces to make that system work properly.

 

Save Freeney, Mathis, Bethea, Sanders to name a few solid choices.

[Mr. Irrelevant]

56 minutes ago, TKnight24 said:

If anyone has a link or sound bite of the radio show that’d be great. I’m gonna keep looking to see if I can find it 

 

Lots of mixed responses here. I’ve been on board with Ballard thus far, but if he was to ever give up the #6 and not get their 1st rounder back..... I’d be highly upset. 

 

But it this is something to keep an eye on though. He did say if the price was right he’d move back again from 6. 

 

Are there any Dolphins players that could be packaged into this deal as well? Any offensive linemen? Cornerbacks? 

 

 

 

Something is not right about this. I really don’t think we will make any moves before draft day. Need to see what is left when we’re about to pick.

[TKnight24]

1 minute ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

 

Something is not right about this. I really don’t think we will make any moves before draft day. Need to see what is left when we’re about to pick.

That’s what I’m thinking. This is plan B in case that run on QB doesn’t happen. And at that point I’m on board for a trade back. But if Chubb or Barkley are there at 6, gotta take one of them

 

I’m nervous about Nelson. Everyone says he’s the safest pick. And usually those are the ones who flame out first. 

[1959Colts]

 

It's not like Miami has a huge surplus of draft picks to deal.

So I have to guess any trade would include at least one 2019 pick.

 

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-dolphins/fl-sp-dolphins-2018-draft-picks-20180306-story.html
 

Quote

 

...The Miami Dolphins have seven selections in 2018 draft after the trade with the Los Angeles Rams for defensive end Robert Quinn. No trades are official until March 14, the start of the league year. The draft is April 26-28 in Dallas.

Here are the Dolphins’ picks in each round (in parentheses) and the overall draft selection:

 

First round (11th pick of round): No. 11 overall

Second round (10th pick of round): No. 42 overall

 

Third round (9th pick of round): No. 73 overall

Fourth round (31st pick of round): No. 131 overall (Miami also had No. 111, but will send to Rams to complete Robert Quinn trade)

Fifth round: None

Sixth round (35th pick of round): No. 209 (Miami had No. 183, but swapped with Rams to complete Robert Quinn trade)

Seventh round (5th & 11th picks of round): Nos. 223 & 229 overall..

 

.

[ColtsLegacy]

"there's an over 90% chance of this happening." ... Says someone who does not understand percentages.

[DaColts85]

43 minutes ago, Coltsman1788 said:

How excited should we really be about the Colts reverting back to their small, fast, cover 2 defensive ways?  More problems stopping the run and more corners playing off coverage. Hard to get fired up over that. Drove me crazy in the Manning era.  However, we did manage to win a Super Bowl with that scheme so the key will be getting the playmakers necessary to make the scheme work. If we don’t then watching this defense every week will be an excercise of  frustration.   If trading back again helps Ballard get the talent needed to run this scheme effectively then so be it.  

One thing is there is no indicator saying we are running the Tampa 2.  We are going to run a version of 4-3 zone schemes.  Even just looking at the Tampa 2...the Bears had a solid D, consistently ranked well.  Their problem was the offense was not that good and they never had a good QB.

[PeterBowman]

2 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

One thing is there is no indicator saying we are running the Tampa 2.  We are going to run a version of 4-3 zone schemes.  Even just looking at the Tampa 2...the Bears had a solid D, consistently ranked well.  Their problem was the offense was not that good and they never had a good QB.

That and look at what won Tampa the Super Bowl---that D was borderline all time great. Same with Seattle when they won.....it's not the scheme, it's having the right players.

[21isSuperman]

Merging

[waka waka]

59 minutes ago, Coltsman1788 said:

How excited should we really be about the Colts reverting back to their small, fast, cover 2 defensive ways?  More problems stopping the run and more corners playing off coverage. Hard to get fired up over that. Drove me crazy in the Manning era.  However, we did manage to win a Super Bowl with that scheme so the key will be getting the playmakers necessary to make the scheme work. If we don’t then watching this defense every week will be an excercise of  frustration.   If trading back again helps Ballard get the talent needed to run this scheme effectively then so be it.  

Frustrating for sure...i think the approach is to build it with better pieces with a more attack-minded philosophy. We are looking for some fast very reactive players no slow footed Rob Morris's, no Davids at cornerback, Hopefully, no Gilbert Gardners at OLB you could go on and on. I think bringing Dobbs and company in is to help identify that talent so you can have some of the traits the hawks had. The hardest part is finding the Safteys then being in a position to draft them. Hope for a good bid of health for Hooker he's got a big role in this. I think some of the other players will be a lot easier to find if this build through the draft approach.  

[Indyfan4life]

I’d do it for their 11th, their 2nd round this year and their 1st next year. Otherwise no QB for you. 

[Myles]

2 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

He absolutely does... because it is highly unlikely all 4 go before 6... and if they do, then he likely feels good about the top of his board. 

 

Ballard put himself in a win/win position with the Jets trade. Truly. 

From what I am seeing, it is likely that all 4 go in the first 5 picks.  I think the only way the Dolphins or Bills trade up to 6 before the draft is if they have a deal in place to trade with Cleveland to move up 2 spots.  

[Rally5]

2 hours ago, TKnight24 said:

Speed is the word buzzing around the Colts facility as the draft approaches. The new scheme really depends on it from what I’m understanding. Roquan is definitely speed 

Roquan can play.

[Gigc]

6 hours ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

I call shenanigans on the possibility of not getting the 11th pick. No way we trade completely out of the 1st.

 

Also here's Allbright's response to that, just to add some more speculation.

 

the only way that trade happens without us getting the 11 pick is if they give us a player, or players. But I'm not sure they have anyone we would want. Do they have OL or a DL we'd be interested in?

[DougDew]

On 4/5/2018 at 1:48 PM, TonyBungee said:

 

I tend to agree.  If it's all about getting a franchise QB, then this would be a risky move for Miami (or Buffalo).  I could easily see QBs going 1-2-3, then the Browns weighing desperate offers for #4. 

 

But while CB does have leverage, I hope he milks it.  Otherwise, I think he's ok staying at 6 & getting Chubb or Nelson.

Lets say picks 2 and 4 are in play and Buffalo and Miami are the teams.  Then there's Denver at 5 who reportedly would not necessarily snub a QB, or, might want their favorite bad enough to move up 1 or 3 spots.  Including pick 1, that's 3 teams competing for 4 QBs within the first 5 spots.  Pick 6 could easily be shut out of the process come draft day.

 

If I was Ballard, I'd secure my profit now.  We need picks and I honestly don't think there is that big of a drop off in the first 7 position players if the 4 QBs go top 5.

[DougDew]

3 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

If you were MIA and you needed a qb, you would do whatever necessary to put yourself in position to get one. Trading to 6, might do it. But it might be the first step in moving further up also... 

 

Indy isn't the one throwing an offer out, so I'm not sure how you think they have no leverage here. We don't HAVE to trade. Miami is the one that is looking to. Ballard's just entertaining the idea until it is worth it.

Ballard has leverage now.  If draft day comes and deals are made with 4 QBs off the board by pick 5, he's missed.  I think come draft day, teams will just try to move from 11 and 12 to 2 or 4 out of desperation.  Today, I think they see moving up to 6 as having an advantage over other teams.  JMO.

[indyagent17]

4 hours ago, TdungyW/12 said:

Ok CB hold #6 randsom and on draft day when and if a QB drops to #6 we take calls from bills/dolphins and get so many picks we won’t know who to draft!

isnt not knowing who to draft Grigson's strategy?

[ColtStrong2013]

24 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Ballard has leverage now.  If draft day comes and deals are made with 4 QBs off the board by pick 5, he's missed.  I think come draft day, teams will just try to move from 11 and 12 to 2 or 4 out of desperation.  Today, I think they see moving up to 6 as having an advantage over other teams.  JMO.

IF he is looking to trade. What if he is just entertaining offers and is content at staying? I don't think that's considered a miss. He already won at the trade game this draft.

[TdungyW/12]

15 minutes ago, indyagent17 said:

isnt not knowing who to draft Grigson's strategy?

Yeah lol ..... hey let’s deaft a WR at 15 when we need other positions filled! 

 

But, if Nelson, Chubb and Barkley are gone by 6 which I think 2 of their will still be there I say we move down and get a crap ton of picks for the #6 if there is 1 of the 4 QB’s still on the board 

[DougDew]

Just now, ColtStrong2013 said:

IF he is looking to trade. What if he is just entertaining offers and is content at staying? I don't think that's considered a miss. He already won at the trade game this draft.

Possibly.  I don't think Ballard is in love with Chubb, Barkley, or Nelson and feels like has to get one of those three players or else the first round is a failure.  Which has been the opinion of about 75% of the forum for the past 6 weeks. 

[ColtStrong2013]

7 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Possibly.  I don't think Ballard is in love with Chubb, Barkley, or Nelson and feels like has to get one of those three players or else the first round is a failure.  Which has been the opinion of about 75% of the forum for the past 6 weeks. 

It's certainly not my opinion. But I think there is a lot of value at 6. 

 

I believe in value and positional value. I think Ballard might really think highly of Nelson but can't justify picking him at 6 when there is really good interior talent to be had in the 2nd round. Playmaking linebackers like Edmonds and Smith aren't followed by a deep inside linebacker class. That could be the value he sees. 

[superrep1967]

5 hours ago, DaColts85 said:

This allows Ballard to play Miami and Buffalo against each other.  The Bills have said they are trying to move and now they know the Phins are as well, at least the speculation is there to possibly drive something.  Ballard could get some good phone calls in the next few weeks.  If I am Ballard I wait until draft day though.  Build that value, even though if the QB's are gone then it hurts the trade value.  I take the risk and build to value.

I totally agree and it's smart. 

[DougDew]

39 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

It's certainly not my opinion. But I think there is a lot of value at 6. 

 

I believe in value and positional value. I think Ballard might really think highly of Nelson but can't justify picking him at 6 when there is really good interior talent to be had in the 2nd round. Playmaking linebackers like Edmonds and Smith aren't followed by a deep inside linebacker class. That could be the value he sees. 

Well, lets do the math right here.  If we trade to 11 before the draft, and 4 QBs go top 4, who's left. 

 

Barkley, Chubb, Nelson, Edmunds, James, Fitzpatrick, Smith and Ward.  All of those names have been mentioned in the top 6, so we are assured of getting 1.  If Ballard has no real favorite among that group, then maybe he gets Miami's RT and another 2nd round pick by trading with them in the next few days.  If he waits, he risks losing the RT and pick and ends up with no better player than if he made the trade early.

 

And if that 2nd round MIA pick could be a G as you say, he can count on fixing the oline with the MIA trade before the draft even starts. He goes into it with 11, 36, 37, 49, and 67 not having to look at oline anymore.

 

 

 

[Alex22]

7 hours ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

I call shenanigans on the possibility of not getting the 11th pick. No way we trade completely out of the 1st.

 

Also here's Allbright's response to that, just to add some more speculation.

 

 

Who even is that Allbright girl? ......

 

Seems to just talk nonsense on his twitter 

[Fisticuffs111]

23 minutes ago, Alex22 said:

 

Who even is that Allbright girl? ......

 

Seems to just talk nonsense on his twitter 

Yeah, he talks a looot and seems pretty unlikeable, but he's proven to have decent sources once in a while.

[TonyBungee]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

Lets say picks 2 and 4 are in play and Buffalo and Miami are the teams.  Then there's Denver at 5 who reportedly would not necessarily snub a QB, or, might want their favorite bad enough to move up 1 or 3 spots.  That's 3 teams competing for 4 QBs, all within the first 5 spots.  Pick 6 could easily be shut out of the process come draft day.

 

If I was Ballard, I'd secure my profit now.  We need picks and I honestly don't think there is that big of a drop off in the first 7 position players if the 4 QBs go top 5.

Good points.  But CB might think that securing his profit now means taking Chubb or Nelson at 6.  The fact is that he's already added picks and is still in position to get the guy he wanted anyway.  

It really all depends on what the Dolphins or Bills offer.  And that's a good place to be.  I have a good feeling about it either way. 

[ColtStrong2013]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

Well, lets do the math right here.  If we trade to 11 before the draft, and 4 QBs go top 4, who's left. 

 

Barkley, Chubb, Nelson, Edmunds, James, Fitzpatrick, Smith and Ward.  All of those names have been mentioned in the top 6, so we are assured of getting 1.  If Ballard has no real favorite among that group, then maybe he gets Miami's RT and another 2nd round pick by trading with them in the next few days.  If he waits, he risks losing the RT and pick and ends up with no better player than if he made the trade early.

 

And if that 2nd round MIA pick could be a G as you say, he can count on fixing the oline with the MIA trade before the draft even starts. He goes into it with 11, 36, 37, 49, and 67 not having to look at oline anymore.

 

 

 

I don't disagree. He's negotiating. Miami might not be budging on it, but he's negotiating for sure... knowing he doesn't have to trade.

 

He could still land a really good guard in the second round, and drastically improve the o-line with the right side of the line upgraded.

[PowerballBlue]

5 hours ago, Coltsman1788 said:

How excited should we really be about the Colts reverting back to their small, fast, cover 2 defensive ways?  More problems stopping the run and more corners playing off coverage. Hard to get fired up over that. Drove me crazy in the Manning era.  However, we did manage to win a Super Bowl with that scheme so the key will be getting the playmakers necessary to make the scheme work. If we don’t then watching this defense every week will be an excercise of  frustration.   If trading back again helps Ballard get the talent needed to run this scheme effectively then so be it.  

I 'm excited about the switch.  Getting faster is not a bad thing.  People always complained about our Tampa2, but watching us trying to cover running backs and tight ends has been very painful.  Having all these bulky linebackers has been worse than useless.  Stopping Jax and the Titans on the ground will be a challenge, but it has to be better than just letting people run free.  Also, as Polian has said, having a great 3-4 defense is incredibly expensive.  The 4-3 could become effective faster with some good picks in the right places.

[#12.]

6 hours ago, Coltsman1788 said:

How excited should we really be about the Colts reverting back to their small, fast, cover 2 defensive ways?  More problems stopping the run and more corners playing off coverage. Hard to get fired up over that. Drove me crazy in the Manning era.  However, we did manage to win a Super Bowl with that scheme so the key will be getting the playmakers necessary to make the scheme work. If we don’t then watching this defense every week will be an excercise of  frustration.   If trading back again helps Ballard get the talent needed to run this scheme effectively then so be it.  

 

I'm guessing the final product won't be all that similar to what we saw a decade ago.  At least, I hope it won't be.

 

Still amazes me that we had the most difficult pieces to find - two all-world pass rushers - and couldn't find a way to make it work.  With Freeney and Mathis as the cornerstones, it shouldn't have been that difficult.  Of course beating your head against the wall with 250 pound DTs and undersized LBs doomed it.  A few fat boys in the middle and another playmaker or two - that's all you needed.

[BOTT]

7 minutes ago, PowerballBlue said:

I 'm excited about the switch.  Getting faster is not a bad thing.  People always complained about our Tampa2, but watching us trying to cover running backs and tight ends has been very painful.  Having all these bulky linebackers has been worse than useless.  Stopping Jax and the Titans on the ground will be a challenge, but it has to be better than just letting people run free.  Also, as Polian has said, having a great 3-4 defense is incredibly expensive.  The 4-3 could become effective faster with some good picks in the right places.

How is a 34 more expensive than a 43?

[MarquisJ]

if ballard pulls this one off (11th pick dolphins 2nd round and future 2nd or/and their RT) sheesh we might be looking at a 1-2 year turn around

[PowerballBlue]

16 minutes ago, BOTT said:

How is a 34 more expensive than a 43?

In a 3-4, you have to have more blue chip players at many positions.  Any holes cause the whole thing to fall apart.  You need elite press corners, elite linebackers, and an elite nose tackle.  That starts to add up in dollars and draft picks.

[loudnproudcolt]

No way we do this for dropping to 11 and another second rounder. We dropped three spots the first time, and got three second rounders, and that would be a starting point since we are at a position of there is going to be a QB or one of three big, Chubb, Nelson, or Barkley still available there. I would not move unless we receive a ransom until draft day. Then we can let CB work his magic a little more. If a QB is there, I would be OK to move to 11, but take there 2nd, 3rd, and Miami's number 1 next year. If they want a QB it is more expensive than the Jets paid!!

 

Plus at that point, Smith or Edmunds would be a great consolation prize since we need one of the ILB's to fall to the second round imo.

[1959Colts]

I wonder how Mel Keiper came to learn about the supposed trade talks?

[Shadow_Creek]

6 hours ago, Coltsman1788 said:

How excited should we really be about the Colts reverting back to their small, fast, cover 2 defensive ways?  More problems stopping the run and more corners playing off coverage. Hard to get fired up over that. Drove me crazy in the Manning era.  However, we did manage to win a Super Bowl with that scheme so the key will be getting the playmakers necessary to make the scheme work. If we don’t then watching this defense every week will be an excercise of  frustration.   If trading back again helps Ballard get the talent needed to run this scheme effectively then so be it.  

who said we were reverting back to a smaller D-line?? if memory serves me correctly the bears under lovie smith had a big man heavy set line and the players on that front 7 came from Ballard's choosing so if anything i see the colts being similar to the 06 bears D

[Jbatc18]

Any possibility of cameron wake being involved in this trade?  I think i would almost rather have him then the right tackle.  Thoughts?

[WoolMagnet]

I'm confused how we trade our #6 without taking their #11.

players?  I just don't see that scenario.