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How many STARTERS League Wide will come from this draft?


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Been meaning to post this for a while....     a question that Peter King asked a number of GM's and scouting people and got the following answers...

 

I'm simply going to cut and paste the very brief story...     it's a paragraph.

 

Part of the reason I'm doing this is to re-inforce the view I posted a while back.....    this is neither a very good or deep draft.     I'd call it a C- draft.    

 

Overall the pickngs are.....   slim.

 

 

STARTING PLAYERS IN THE 2018 NFL DRAFT INTERLUDE.Interesting question. Queried about how many starting-caliber players they felt were in this draft, six scouting people or GMs over the weekend came back with these figures: 35, “40 to 50,” “about 70,” 73, “75-ish,” 83 and 111. I asked because I wanted to figure out whether it made sense for the Colts to try to trade down one more time..

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I would say 75 is a good average number.  I will also say that a lot of drafts are going to be around here.  Every now and then you have a draft that has a few more but yet it all comes down to what position groups are seen as strong each year.  What high profile guys are there and how many.  You have good o-line, RB, and LB talent in this draft.  You will also have some solid production from a few DT's and WR's in this draft.  Again, this is common among many drafts though.

 

Just my point of view I guess.

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16 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

I would say 75 is a good average number.  I will also say that a lot of drafts are going to be around here.  Every now and then you have a draft that has a few more but yet it all comes down to what position groups are seen as strong each year.  What high profile guys are there and how many.  You have good o-line, RB, and LB talent in this draft.  You will also have some solid production from a few DT's and WR's in this draft.  Again, this is common among many drafts though.

 

Just my point of view I guess.

 

Hard for me to get too worked up about the O-line grouup.     The tackles are.....   terrible.    Another bad class of tackles.

 

The guards and centers are good to very good.     But tackle is the most important spot, and since it's terrible,  it's hard to get too excited overall....

 

Just a different point of view....

 

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1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Hard for me to get too worked up about the O-line grouup.     The tackles are.....   terrible.    Another bad class of tackles.

 

The guards and centers are good to very good.     But tackle is the most important spot, and since it's terrible,  it's hard to get too excited overall....

 

Just a different point of view....

 

You are right...I should have specified the o-line comment.

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7 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

You are right...I should have specified the o-line comment.

 

No worries.....     I knew what you were talking about....

 

It IS a nice class of centers and guards.    I'm counting on the Colts to spend a 2 on one of those guards.  (Assuming we don't take Nelson...)        I think this will work out well for the Colts in this draft.

 

I'm just disappointed we've had two poor classes of tackles in a row.     It's bad for the league overall....

 

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28 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Been meaning to post this for a while....     a question that Peter King asked a number of GM's and scouting people and got the following answers...

 

I'm simply going to cut and paste the very brief story...     it's a paragraph.

 

Part of the reason I'm doing this is to re-inforce the view I posted a while back.....    this is neither a very good or deep draft.     I'd call it a C- draft.    

 

Overall the pickngs are.....   slim.

 

 

STARTING PLAYERS IN THE 2018 NFL DRAFT INTERLUDE.Interesting question. Queried about how many starting-caliber players they felt were in this draft, six scouting people or GMs over the weekend came back with these figures: 35, “40 to 50,” “about 70,” 73, “75-ish,” 83 and 111. I asked because I wanted to figure out whether it made sense for the Colts to try to trade down one more time..

Great post.  I think this is a perfect way to represent what has been discussed a lot here lately, when players get taken, the value of picks, and how not all drafts are created equal.  This is exactly why I will never fault a GM who takes a player the rest of the world screams 'reach' about.  There are only so many players with talent, and when it's your turn at the podium, you better make sure you get one. 

 

A couple years ago NFL.com had an article about the worst draft years, and two were in this generation of players, 2002 (ok maybe the last generation of players) and 2013.  You know there have been a total of 7 players out of the entire 2013 draft who have made a pro bowl so far.  7.  Yikes. 

 

I think this draft has starters throughout the first two rounds.  I love the second round projections I see.  I agree with the GMs though, there are some fliers out there in later rounds.  Whomever said 35 clearly didn't have his coffee yet, but I don't think it will be the other end either, 111 is too many.  I think I'd agree with DaColt, it's probably in the 70s.

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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

No worries.....     I knew what you were talking about....

 

It IS a nice class of centers and guards.    I'm counting on the Colts to spend a 2 on one of those guards.  (Assuming we don't take Nelson...)        I think this will work out well for the Colts in this draft.

 

I'm just disappointed we've had two poor classes of tackles in a row.     It's bad for the league overall....

 

Unfortunately the way the NCAA is moving with offensive schemes, the tackle spot is suffering with quality.  Every now and then you get that solid hyped guy an lately they have not been dominate like the older days...lol!  Showing age!

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1 hour ago, Dirty Mudflaps said:

Great post.  I think this is a perfect way to represent what has been discussed a lot here lately, when players get taken, the value of picks, and how not all drafts are created equal.  This is exactly why I will never fault a GM who takes a player the rest of the world screams 'reach' about.  There are only so many players with talent, and when it's your turn at the podium, you better make sure you get one. 

 

A couple years ago NFL.com had an article about the worst draft years, and two were in this generation of players, 2002 (ok maybe the last generation of players) and 2013.  You know there have been a total of 7 players out of the entire 2013 draft who have made a pro bowl so far.  7.  Yikes. 

 

I think this draft has starters throughout the first two rounds.  I love the second round projections I see.  I agree with the GMs though, there are some fliers out there in later rounds.  Whomever said 35 clearly didn't have his coffee yet, but I don't think it will be the other end either, 111 is too many.  I think I'd agree with DaColt, it's probably in the 70s.

I think that most GM's...if not all....see talent in groups, where fans see players in a linear, numerical order. I agree with NCF, that there are about a dozen top shelf players at this point in their development. But I see the next level or group of players as one of the largest I have seen in some time. I guy could go anywhere from 15 to maybe even 40...and you could argue that is a fairly sane choice. I can't wait to see the middle of the first round through the bottom of the second. I think it could be very surprising. 

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2 hours ago, Four2itus said:

I think that most GM's...if not all....see talent in groups, where fans see players in a linear, numerical order. I agree with NCF, that there are about a dozen top shelf players at this point in their development. But I see the next level or group of players as one of the largest I have seen in some time. I guy could go anywhere from 15 to maybe even 40...and you could argue that is a fairly sane choice. I can't wait to see the middle of the first round through the bottom of the second. I think it could be very surprising. 

I think GMs have to do both.  The groups, the board with it's options, rankings, groups of players is one thing.  But placing value on those groups, knowing when to get them, is linear.  I think it absolutely is a progression or series of steps because they're forced to by the way the draft is organized.  For example, usually teams wait until the seventh round, maybe sixth (Oakland and Tampa notwithstanding), or the UDFA pool to get a kicker or punter.  Yet one could argue that those are two of the most important positions in the game.  The league's all time scoring leaders - in a sport where high score wins - are all kickers.  So they have to group those players, rank their talent and value, but also try to assess where in the order of the process (the draft) do I place these items of value?

 

To me that's why it is far more dynamic a process than most people think.  It sure as heck isn't our fantasy draft at a Wild Wings with beers spilling and reactionary picks flying each round. 

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5 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Been meaning to post this for a while....     a question that Peter King asked a number of GM's and scouting people and got the following answers...

 

I'm simply going to cut and paste the very brief story...     it's a paragraph.

 

Part of the reason I'm doing this is to re-inforce the view I posted a while back.....    this is neither a very good or deep draft.     I'd call it a C- draft.    

 

Overall the pickngs are.....   slim.

 

 

STARTING PLAYERS IN THE 2018 NFL DRAFT INTERLUDE.Interesting question. Queried about how many starting-caliber players they felt were in this draft, six scouting people or GMs over the weekend came back with these figures: 35, “40 to 50,” “about 70,” 73, “75-ish,” 83 and 111. I asked because I wanted to figure out whether it made sense for the Colts to try to trade down one more time..

 

Completely disagree with the notion that this is a bad draft.  This draft may not have finished edge rushers nor elite tackle talent but it will definitely produce a lot of NFL talent/starters.

 

The linebackers class is top notch.  There will easily be 6-7 starters with pro bowl potential out of this group.

 

The QB class has a legitimate chance at churning out 4 starters.

 

The running backs will have at minimum 4 starters with pro bowl potential and another 5 or so specialist backs who will have high snap counts.

 

The receiver class even though they lack finished number one receivers has a ton of number 2 and 3 receivers that will be considered starters. I bet at least 5 are regulars on their teams.

 

The DT talent is really good the only issue is DTs are plentiful in the NFL right now.

 

The TE class is excellent. There will be at least 2 starters with pro bowl potential and another 3 or so that could be starters based on which team they go to.

 

The corner class is insane as well. But like the receiver class they will mostly be number 2 and number 3 corners that will have high snap counts. 

 

Yes this might not be a draft that produces 20 stars but it is going to be a draft that makes alot of rosters much deeper and improve the play of the league.  I think they amount of players that will start and have high snap counts will be higher than you think.

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QBs, RBs, LBs and interior lineman look pretty good.

 

OTOH, Tackles, Edge Rushers, Wide Recievers look pretty thin. I think Bradley Chubb is the only player in that entire grouping that I think has star potential.

 

The corner class is decent. There’s legit starters deep into rounds 3 and 4, but I don’t know if there’s a clear cut star that a team can draft right out the gate (a la Marshon Lattimore). Although Ward is pretty good.

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45 minutes ago, Surge89 said:

 

Completely disagree with the notion that this is a bad draft.  This draft may not have finished edge rushers nor elite tackle talent but it will definitely produce a lot of NFL talent/starters.

 

The linebackers class is top notch.  There will easily be 6-7 starters with pro bowl potential out of this group.

 

The QB class has a legitimate chance at churning out 4 starters.

 

The running backs will have at minimum 4 starters with pro bowl potential and another 5 or so specialist backs who will have high snap counts.

 

The receiver class even though they lack finished number one receivers has a ton of number 2 and 3 receivers that will be considered starters. I bet at least 5 are regulars on their teams.

 

The DT talent is really good the only issue is DTs are plentiful in the NFL right now.

 

The TE class is excellent. There will be at least 2 starters with pro bowl potential and another 3 or so that could be starters based on which team they go to.

 

The corner class is insane as well. But like the receiver class they will mostly be number 2 and number 3 corners that will have high snap counts. 

 

Yes this might not be a draft that produces 20 stars but it is going to be a draft that makes alot of rosters much deeper and improve the play of the league.  I think they amount of players that will start and have high snap counts will be higher than you think.

 

You don't have to take my opinion at all...,

 

SEVEN NFL GMs or scouts gave their opinion...

 

Two of them have numbers that total LESS than two rounds and one of them has a number just over one round!    The rest,  all except one, have numbers that are LESS than three rounds. 

 

And only one has a number that would get into the fourth round.    One of seven.    This is the view of NFL people, not fans posting on a message board.

 

The offense is the strength of this class but the WR class and the OT class are very poor boarding on dreadful.

 

The defense is below average this year.  That's not unexpected.   The 2017 defensive class was exceptionally strong, one of the best in many years.

 

I think the strength of this year's defense is up the middle.  Tackles, ILB and Safeties.   But I think it suffers on the edges...   I think it's poor at DE, OLB, and at CB.   I don't think any of those three position groups are even average. 

 

I think most draft classes are C-plus to C-minus....  a Bell Shaped Curve.   I think this class is closer to C-minus.    And I think those projected starter totals above supports that viewpoint...

 

As always...   your mileage may vary...

 

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1 minute ago, Luck 4 president said:

Define starter. Do you mean day one starter? Primary starter as a rookie? or at least one year as a Primary starter? or at least one game started?

I didn't ask the question...    take another look at what I cut and I pasted...   it's one paragraph...

 

How many starters will come out of this draft?    I take that to mean over the life of the players careers and not just as rookies.   But I suppose that could be wrong...

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47 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I didn't ask the question...    take another look at what I cut and I pasted...   it's one paragraph...

 

How many starters will come out of this draft?    I take that to mean over the life of the players careers and not just as rookies.   But I suppose that could be wrong...

I did read it, but it doesn't define what a starting caliber player is. I don't know if there is an objective number that can define "starting caliber"

If we take your definition which is a player is a primary starter for at least one year during his career then statistically (5 years from 2012-2016) 42% of drafted players fit that category which is around 110 players per draft. But that includes players like Denzelle Goode who were forced into a starter role and not really being "starting caliber". Surprisingly, 44% of Grigson's draft picks fit this category, but only 28% of his picks fit this category and are still in the league. 

If we go with rookies then historically between 40-50ish rookies were primary starters their first year. Last year there were 42 rookies who were primary starters, zero of which were Colts' players. Hooker would've made the cut if he didn't get injured.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Luck 4 president said:

I did read it, but it doesn't define what a starting caliber player is. I don't know if there is an objective number that can define "starting caliber"

If we take your definition which is a player is a primary starter for at least one year during his career then statistically (5 years from 2012-2016) 42% of drafted players fit that category which is around 110 players per draft. But that includes players like Denzelle Goode who were forced into a starter role and not really being "starting caliber". Surprisingly, 44% of Grigson's draft picks fit this category, but only 28% of his picks fit this category and are still in the league. 

If we go with rookies then historically between 40-50ish rookies were primary starters their first year. Last year there were 42 rookies who were primary starters, zero of which were Colts' players. Hooker would've made the cut if he didn't get injured.

 

 

 

I think Hooker would count as a starter under any definition.

 

So...   two projections have totals just over one round...    four have projections of more than two rounds and less than three rounds...  and one has a irojectikn if less than three and a half rounds.

 

That strikes me as a weak draft...

 

 

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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

You don't have to take my opinion at all...,

 

SEVEN NFL GMs or scouts gave their opinion...

 

Two of them have numbers that total LESS than two rounds and one of them has a number just over one round!    The rest,  all except one, have numbers that are LESS than three rounds. 

 

And only one has a number that would get into the fourth round.    One of seven.    This is the view of NFL people, not fans posting on a message board.

 

The offense is the strength of this class but the WR class and the OT class are very poor boarding on dreadful.

 

The defense is below average this year.  That's not unexpected.   The 2017 defensive class was exceptionally strong, one of the best in many years.

 

I think the strength of this year's defense is up the middle.  Tackles, ILB and Safeties.   But I think it suffers on the edges...   I think it's poor at DE, OLB, and at CB.   I don't think any of those three position groups are even average. 

 

I think most draft classes are C-plus to C-minus....  a Bell Shaped Curve.   I think this class is closer to C-minus.    And I think those projected starter totals above supports that viewpoint...

 

As always...   your mileage may vary...

 

 

No I understand it's their opinion and they are NFL GMs.  I was just stating the reasoning for why I disagree.  Also I can definitely understand why GMs would not like this draft because there's only about 25 legitimate first round worth players.  But that shouldn't overshadow the fact that this draft has lots of good players for the non Marquee positions. 

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If there are 12 starters per team from rounds 1-3 and an average of 3 years starting it would indicate that there about 122 potential starting players in the average draft. I can’t remember where this information came from but it seems about right. Starters will come from all rounds including undrafted free agents but 60% come from the first 3 rounds, so the more opportunities you have to draft in the first 3 rounds the better the odds are for you to hit on starters. Scouts have been on both sides of the fence about the quality of this draft but the combine numbers indicate better than average. Time will tell.

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On 4/5/2018 at 1:14 PM, Dirty Mudflaps said:

You know there have been a total of 7 players out of the entire 2013 draft who have made a pro bowl so far.  7.  Yikes. 

 

That is not accurate. There is a lot more that have made the Pro Bowl. In the first round alone there are 11 (Lane Johnson, Ezekiel Ansah, Sheldon Richardson, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Rhodes, Tyler Eifert, Desmond Trufant, Eric Reid, Travis Frederick, Cordarrell Patterson, Kyle Long). Then you have others like LeVeon Bell, Jordan Reed, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Kawann Short, Darius Slay. There are a lot more.

 

In addition a few like Jack Doyle, A.J. Bouye and Adam Thielen were undrafted but have made the Pro Bowl.

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9 hours ago, NFLfan said:

 

That is not accurate. There is a lot more that have made the Pro Bowl. In the first round alone there are 11 (Lane Johnson, Ezekiel Ansah, Sheldon Richardson, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Rhodes, Tyler Eifert, Desmond Trufant, Eric Reid, Travis Frederick, Cordarrell Patterson, Kyle Long). Then you have others like LeVeon Bell, Jordan Reed, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, Kawann Short, Darius Slay. There are a lot more.

 

In addition a few like Jack Doyle, A.J. Bouye and Adam Thielen were undrafted but have made the Pro Bowl.

You didnt read what I wrote or didn’t understand it.  The NFL.com article was from a few years ago, that was the lead sentence to the paragraph.  It wasn’t current.  Regardless, that draft class still stunk. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000495614/article/five-worst-nfl-draft-classes-of-last-25-years

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1 hour ago, Dirty Mudflaps said:

You didnt read what I wrote or didn’t understand it.  The NFL.com article was from a few years ago, that was the lead sentence to the paragraph.  It wasn’t current.  Regardless, that draft class still stunk. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000495614/article/five-worst-nfl-draft-classes-of-last-25-years

I understood. You wrote that only 7 players had made the Pro Bowl (see your quote below). That is inaccurate. That's all.

 

On 4/5/2018 at 1:14 PM, Dirty Mudflaps said:

You know there have been a total of 7 players out of the entire 2013 draft who have made a pro bowl so far.  7.  Yikes. 

 

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1 hour ago, NFLfan said:

I understood. You wrote that only 7 players had made the Pro Bowl (see your quote below). That is inaccurate. That's all.

 

 

Now it is.  When the article was written it wasn’t.  That number came from the article not my pea brain.  And that was the entire point.   That’s the thing about assessing drafts.  It takes a while to assess them in some cases, while in others the stars shine early and in numbers.   

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I've followed college recruiting and the NFL draft very in-depth for twenty years now. I always think the drafts are loaded because I usually know 70 or 80% of the guys coming into the league. I think this draft falls in the average category as far as future starters go. There are a good handful of day three guys with Pro Bowl potential IMO.

 

I always like to see how each team's scouting department views different players. Some teams may have a first round grade on a guy that some teams see as a fourth rounder and so on. Some teams will not have guys like WR-Antonio Callaway and OT Desmond Harrison on their draft boards because of red flags. But I think both could end up as the best players from there respective positions when we look back at this draft.

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On 4/5/2018 at 12:14 PM, Dirty Mudflaps said:

A couple years ago NFL.com had an article about the worst draft years, and two were in this generation of players, 2002 (ok maybe the last generation of players) and 2013.  You know there have been a total of 7 players out of the entire 2013 draft who have made a pro bowl so far.  7.  Yikes. 

 

If you include four UDFAs, and not just the 26 "drafted" players that have made it to a Pro Bowl, that number is actually 30. Lane Johnson, Ezekiel Ansah, Sheldon Richardson, Eric Reid, Kyle Long, Tyler Eifert, Desmond Trufant, Xavier Rhodes, DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson, Travis Frederick, Zach Ertz, Darius Slay, Kawann Short, Le'Veon Bell, Jamie Collins, Eddie Lacy, Travis Kelce, Larry Warford, Tyrann Mathieu, Keenan Allen, Jordan Reed, David Bakhtiari, Kyle Juszczyk, Micah Hyde, and Latavius Murray were all drafted.  C.J. Anderson, A.J. Bouye, Adam Thielen, and our own Jack Doyle were UDFAs. Now, some of them made it as alternates, but they've all "made" a Pro Bowl. So with 26 out of the 254 players selected in that draft making the Pro Bowl, that's just slightly better than 10% making it at some point in their careers to date. The 2012 draft had 32 out of the 253 drafted (about 12%); not significantly different from the previous year.

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16 minutes ago, HarryTheCat said:

If you include four UDFAs, and not just the 26 "drafted" players that have made it to a Pro Bowl, that number is actually 30. Lane Johnson, Ezekiel Ansah, Sheldon Richardson, Eric Reid, Kyle Long, Tyler Eifert, Desmond Trufant, Xavier Rhodes, DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson, Travis Frederick, Zach Ertz, Darius Slay, Kawann Short, Le'Veon Bell, Jamie Collins, Eddie Lacy, Travis Kelce, Larry Warford, Tyrann Mathieu, Keenan Allen, Jordan Reed, David Bakhtiari, Kyle Juszczyk, Micah Hyde, and Latavius Murray were all drafted.  C.J. Anderson, A.J. Bouye, Adam Thielen, and our own Jack Doyle were UDFAs. Now, some of them made it as alternates, but they've all "made" a Pro Bowl. So with 26 out of the 254 players selected in that draft making the Pro Bowl, that's just slightly better than 10% making it at some point in their careers to date. The 2012 draft had 32 out of the 253 drafted (about 12%); not significantly different from the previous year.

Ok...   maybe I should have drawn a map.   This isn’t that hard guys.  

 

There was an nfl.com article from a couple years ago evaluating the worst drafts.  At the time of the writing of that article - again, a couple years ago - the number was 7.   That since has changed.  Great.  It’s still a pretty horrible draft.  When examples of success are Eddie Lacy or Eric Reid, well, that’s the point.  It was a thin draft.  It wasnt a shining moment for NFL talent.   Yes, the number has changed.  The point remains that draft lacked any generational talent.  

 

The article is linked in this string.  Feel free to read it.  Again, so as not to confuse anyone, as was warned, it’s a couple years old.  

 

 

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13 hours ago, Dirty Mudflaps said:

Ok...   maybe I should have drawn a map.   This isn’t that hard guys.  

 

There was an nfl.com article from a couple years ago evaluating the worst drafts.  At the time of the writing of that article - again, a couple years ago - the number was 7.   That since has changed.  Great.  It’s still a pretty horrible draft.  When examples of success are Eddie Lacy or Eric Reid, well, that’s the point.  It was a thin draft.  It wasnt a shining moment for NFL talent.   Yes, the number has changed.  The point remains that draft lacked any generational talent.  

 

The article is linked in this string.  Feel free to read it.  Again, so as not to confuse anyone, as was warned, it’s a couple years old.  

 

 

That's the problem with relying on outdated information. No article written within just a few years of any draft is going to show very may Pro Bowlers. They take time to develop. Take the 2017 draft for example. Out of the 253 players taken, only four made the Pro Bowl. That draft must have really sucked, right? Well, then, how about that 2016 draft? It must have been much better. Just marginally better. Only 15 Pro Bowlers out of that crop. Maybe 2015 was better. Nope again. Still, only 15 of those guys made it. 

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