Steve Palazzolo(PFF) 3 rounds mock draft

[stitches]

Here's the latest PFF mock draft. It's 3 rounds mock draft:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pff-nfl-mock-draft-4

 

 

First of all a disclaimer from Steve:

Quote

As always, this mock draft is based on what I would do as general manager of each team, and many of the picks have remained and will remain the same throughout the process.

 

And here are his picks for the Colts:

 

 

Quote

 

6. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-12) – FROM NEW YORK JETS

CB Josh Jackson, Iowa

The Colts need help all over the defense, and they start their franchise-altering draft with one of the best ball hawks in the class. Jackson had a breakout 2017 campaign that saw him lead the nation in both interceptions (eight) and pass breakups (17), all while allowing a passer rating of 31.3, fifth-best in the country. Jackson has the skills to excel in any scheme and he’s the first piece in what could be a defensive overhaul for the Colts.

...

36. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Edge Arden Key, LSU

While Key comes with question marks, his high-end play puts him among the best pass-rushers in the draft class. The Colts could hit a home run with this pick if Key gets back to his freshman and sophomore year level of production when he picked up 114 pressures over the two-year period.

...

37. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS – FROM NEW YORK JETS

DI Taven Bryan, Florida

The Colts attack the defense once again, this time adding an athletic interior presence in Bryan who had a breakout 2017 season. He was disruptive against both the run and as a pass-rusher on his way to an 87.5 overall grade last year.

...

49. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS – FROM NEW YORK JETS THROUGH SEATTLE

RB Derrius Guice, LSU

The Colts finally pick an offensive player and Guice could step right in as the feature back in Indianapolis. He has good patience, quickness and power, allowing him to grade over 85.0 overall in each of the last two seasons.

...

67. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

G Will Clapp, LSU

While Clapp played center at LSU last season, he’s also had success at guard, and that’s where he’ll slot in up front for the Colts. He ranked second among draft-class center with a run block success percentage of 93.4 last season.

 

 

 

[stitches]

It's not one of my favorite mock drafts personally. 

[WarGhost21]

I'm really not a fan of Josh Jackson, but everything else would be fine by me!

[our_dbs_rock]

Didn't Josh Jackson have an awful combine? 

[stitches]

Just now, our_dbs_rock said:

Didn't Josh Jackson have an awful combine? 

not awful, but... yeah... didn't impress with his on-field drills. 

[Cynjin]

I like Josh Jackson, but not at 6 overall.   The other picks are OK, imo.   Of course, it all depends on who is available at those picks.

[shasta519]

Please, please let the Colts trade down in THAT draft.

[Jeremy Waldon]

Id rather see edmunds at 6 and i dont think guice will be there, but i think Nick Chubb would be a good option, of course providing chubb and barkley arent there at 6

[PeterBowman]

The Jackson pick was made with Nelson, Chubb, and Barkley still on the board.

[shasta519]

I try not to rail on mock drafts, because at the end of the day, we are all guessing. But this mock draft makes it even harder for me to take PFF seriously. Lots of questionable picks. Edmunds dropping to #28...Josh Allen at #40, after Rudolph and Lamar....Landry ahead of Chubb...Josh Jackson as a top 6 pick, going before Ward.

 

I am also convinced this guy is a huge Steelers homer. He has CLE drafting Mayfield at #1 (ahead of all QBs), Hurst at #4 (as the top non-QB ahead of everyone). Then he has BAL drafting a likely day-two WR in James Washington at (ahead of every WR except Ridley)...and CIN has meh picks as well.

 

And then conveniently, Edmunds, possibly the best defensive player in the draft, falls to #28...to the very ILB-needy Steelers. And Christian Kirk (who is easily a top 3-4 WR in this draft) is sitting there at #60, as the 9th WR off the board. Though I would argue that Kirk isn't as big of a need for them...but still great value there.

 

As for the Colts haul, Ballard would have crushed this draft with just a few tweaks...but especially with a trade back.

[Finball]

Guys at PFF don't really seem to understand what mock drafts are about.

 

edit. I missed the disclaimer, makes a bit more sense now..

[jameszeigler834]

57 minutes ago, stitches said:

It's not one of my favorite mock drafts personally. 

That is the worst mock I have seen yet.

[PeterBowman]

the #6 pick was really bad, but the others were actually solid. Sub Jackson for Nelson and we'd be in business.

[stitches]

46 minutes ago, Finball said:

Guys at PFF don't really seem to understand what mock drafts are about.

 

edit. I missed the disclaimer, makes a bit more sense now..

Yeah, there are different types of mocks - 'what I would do' types and 'what I think the teams will do' types... Just PFF's grading grading of players is spitting out some grades and rankings of players that are not within the mainstream opinions. 

 

I don't really agree with a lot of their grades and rankings and thus with their mocks, but to me it's worth exploring those to challenge my opinions, go back and look at players that I either haven't paid much attention or might have caught a weird bad/great game from. 

 

This is the same reason I posted the NDT Scouting big boards on here too. We don't have to agree with them, but it provides topics for discussion and players to watch more of. It's weird that the outlets that rely heavily on numerical evaluation and grading of players produce the big boards that are most unlike the consensus among draftniks and analysts that don't actually bother to put grades on different aspects of players' game, but rather do their rankings on feel(that's me too btw, I don't have any rigid system - I simply rank them by who I think I would prefer the Colts draft). 

[ColtsArmy84]

Guice falling to 49 is laughable

[Fisticuffs111]

Yeah, PFF mocks are usually out there. I remember they had us taking Hurst at #3 in a previous mock.

[rockywoj]

Interesting ordering of prospects in their mock.  Their ranking of prospects seems to really stray from most of the consensus evaluations I have seen.  Is PFF more in the know with their surprising rankings or simply a rebellious outlier?

[stitches]

14 minutes ago, rockywoj said:

Interesting ordering of prospects in their mock.  Their ranking of prospects seems to really stray from most of the consensus evaluations I have seen.  Is PFF more in the know with their surprising rankings or simply a rebellious outlier?

Their rankings and their mocks seems to be purely based on their evaluation of the prospects, rather than on inside information from the teams. 

[aaron11]

18 minutes ago, rockywoj said:

Interesting ordering of prospects in their mock.  Their ranking of prospects seems to really stray from most of the consensus evaluations I have seen.  Is PFF more in the know with their surprising rankings or simply a rebellious outlier?

i tend to agree with their pro evaluations more than their college ones 

 

as for being in the know, they get there by watching every snap by every player in the pros.  not sure what they do in college

[Valpo2004]

I'm a Iowa fun but Josh Jackson seems to be a mid to late 1st rounder.  Would certainly be a reach at 6.  

 

Edit: Looking at the whole draft it's really bad.  It has Barkley falling to 7.  Nelson to 8 and Chubb to 10.  

[OffensivelyPC]

2 hours ago, ColtsArmy84 said:

Guice falling to 49 is laughable

I don't think that is, and history would bear out that it's not.  Dalvin Cook was ranked higher in the first round and graded out as the 17th best overall prospect by ESPN and 15th overall by NFL.com while Derrius Guice grades out as the 28th best overall prospect by ESPN and 15th overall by NFL.com (it's worth noting that his grade by NFL.com is also lower than Dalvin Cooks, despite being ranked the same in terms of the number of prospects ranked ahead of him).

 

Even if he's just as good as Cook, which he isn't, Cook went in the early second round.  He was consistently mocked in the first round by many of the major mock draft groups people refer to around here (Cook was a favorite to land in Tampa).  Of course, no one knows what will happen come draft day or when Guice will be selected.  But it's no secret that RBs are devalued in today's NFL and, other than you're typical generational talents (which Guice is not), RBs with 1st round grades more often than not fall to the 2nd.

 

3 hours ago, Finball said:

Guys at PFF don't really seem to understand what mock drafts are about.

 

edit. I missed the disclaimer, makes a bit more sense now..

Makes you wonder if their grades are all that trustworthy, TBH.  What they don't account for is who they are facing.  Guys like Michael Gallup and Courtland Sutton can have a grade that is the same or even better than say, Calvin Ridley.  More often than not, however, guys at small schools won't ever be graded out - for the purposes of a real NFL draft board - as high because they didn't face elite level competition on a week to week basis.  It doesn't mean that Sutton or Gallup won't end up better, but you have a better idea of who Ridley is and what his projection will look like than you would Sutton or Gallup.  It helps when the non-major conference standouts go to school for 4 years like Gallup and Sutton did, but those guys will always be taken with a greater degree of uncertainty.

[TheMose]

Thank God this guy isn't a GM of any team. That was 3 rounds of trash. 

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

1 this won't happen, 2 I guess he thinks we have the market on LSU players. Hummmm

[AZColt11]

This is a joke, right?  OK, what's the punchline? I don't get it.

[coltsfansince65]

21 hours ago, PeterBowman said:

The Jackson pick was made with Nelson, Chubb, and Barkley still on the board.

I'll take any one of these 3 (and then some) before Jackson. Hard to take this mock seriously.

[tvturner]

2nd round is great, other than switch Guice with Key

1st round is awful

[Crunked]

so Barkley, Chubb an Nelson all available at #6 and we choose a CB....you lost me after that....I began to speed scroll just to get through the stupid faster.........we even take a C to convert to G in the 3rd just kind of capped the bafoonery.......How about a RT to play RT there......

[Coltsfanforlife12]

On 4/3/2018 at 10:36 AM, stitches said:

Here's the latest PFF mock draft. It's 3 rounds mock draft:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pff-nfl-mock-draft-4

 

 

First of all a disclaimer from Steve:

 

And here are his picks for the Colts:

 

 

 

 

This guy is an *... clearly... Hursg at four??  Jackson at six??  He reaches on a lot of players... 

[GoColts00]

On 4/3/2018 at 1:41 PM, OffensivelyPC said:

I don't think that is, and history would bear out that it's not.  Dalvin Cook was ranked higher in the first round and graded out as the 17th best overall prospect by ESPN and 15th overall by NFL.com while Derrius Guice grades out as the 28th best overall prospect by ESPN and 15th overall by NFL.com (it's worth noting that his grade by NFL.com is also lower than Dalvin Cooks, despite being ranked the same in terms of the number of prospects ranked ahead of him).

 

Even if he's just as good as Cook, which he isn't, Cook went in the early second round.  He was consistently mocked in the first round by many of the major mock draft groups people refer to around here (Cook was a favorite to land in Tampa).  Of course, no one knows what will happen come draft day or when Guice will be selected.  But it's no secret that RBs are devalued in today's NFL and, other than you're typical generational talents (which Guice is not), RBs with 1st round grades more often than not fall to the 2nd.

 

Makes you wonder if their grades are all that trustworthy, TBH.  What they don't account for is who they are facing.  Guys like Michael Gallup and Courtland Sutton can have a grade that is the same or even better than say, Calvin Ridley.  More often than not, however, guys at small schools won't ever be graded out - for the purposes of a real NFL draft board - as high because they didn't face elite level competition on a week to week basis.  It doesn't mean that Sutton or Gallup won't end up better, but you have a better idea of who Ridley is and what his projection will look like than you would Sutton or Gallup.  It helps when the non-major conference standouts go to school for 4 years like Gallup and Sutton did, but those guys will always be taken with a greater degree of uncertainty.

I agree! Honestly, i think PFF should do a weighted scale where a player gets more points when going against elite or above-average competition. Likewise, your point value is less when going against lesser talent. Alabama vs LSU should be weighted differently than Alabama vs Middle Tennessee State 

[Shive]

6 hours ago, Coltsfanforlife12 said:

This guy is an *... clearly... Hursg at four??  Jackson at six??  He reaches on a lot of players... 

Having listened to his podcast the other day, I can understand his reasoning...somewhat. He LOVES Hurst. He also thinks Barley will go top 10, but closer to 10. He's also not enamored with Bradley Chubb and thinks he's a stellar run defender, but only an average pass rusher. He also thinks Landry is way more superior of a pass rusher (which he is, but not as well rounded of a player as Chubb). I know he also really like Josh Jackson as well, but I didn't think he liked him THAT much. I really like Jackson, but I don't think he's a good value at 6.

 

Listening to him talk about prospects definitely helped me understand some of the picks in this that don't make sense to most of us.

[jameszeigler834]

On ‎4‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 10:38 AM, WarGhost21 said:

I'm really not a fan of Josh Jackson, but everything else would be fine by me!

Jackson at 6 would be awful.

[CopenhagenColt]

I would be very unhappy with that draft. Not a single pick I like.

[Coltsfanforlife12]

On 4/5/2018 at 3:52 PM, Shive said:

Having listened to his podcast the other day, I can understand his reasoning...somewhat. He LOVES Hurst. He also thinks Barley will go top 10, but closer to 10. He's also not enamored with Bradley Chubb and thinks he's a stellar run defender, but only an average pass rusher. He also thinks Landry is way more superior of a pass rusher (which he is, but not as well rounded of a player as Chubb). I know he also really like Josh Jackson as well, but I didn't think he liked him THAT much. I really like Jackson, but I don't think he's a good value at 6.

 

Listening to him talk about prospects definitely helped me understand some of the picks in this that don't make sense to most of us.

I don’t know.  This mock is from a guy that I’ve never heard of.  I find it hard to take him as being any sort of credible in his evaluation of talent.  He’s definitely not in the realm of Mayok, Kiper or McShay o

who have very different opinions on Chubb.  

[Shive]

2 hours ago, Coltsfanforlife12 said:

I don’t know.  This mock is from a guy that I’ve never heard of.  I find it hard to take him as being any sort of credible in his evaluation of talent.  He’s definitely not in the realm of Mayok, Kiper or McShay o

who have very different opinions on Chubb.  

I'm not the biggest fan of Kiper or McShay. I think they get way more credibility than they deserve just because they do it for ESPN. A lot of what they put out is designed to get clicks and traffic to ESPN.com. I really respect Mayok' s opinion though.

 

PFF has become the biggest football analytics site and their guys watch a TON of tape. Steve's mock draft may have been a bit off, but I think he does a great job with talent evaluation from everything I've heard from him so far.

[Dark Superman]

Guice WILL NOT BE THERE AT 49. He's going in RD 1.

[GuitarMD]

Not a fan of this at all...

- J. Jackson is fine if we end up trading back (Better players should be available at #6)

- I wouldn't touch Arden Key at all.

- Guice will be long gone by #49.