Rang: How Colts should use newfound picks

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http://nfldraftscout.com/2018/03/18/rang-how-colts-should-use-newfound-picks/

 

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Rang: How Colts should use newfound picks

 March 18, 2018 2018 NFL Draft, By Rob Rang

Let’s measure the seismic shift from Saturday’s trade in which the Indianapolis Colts grabbed four picks in the NFL Draft from the New York Jets.

 

To do so, the Colts agreed only to drop from No. 3 to No. 6 in the first round. According to our official draft abacus, they slip down three spots to net two more picks in the top 49, totaling four in that span. (They also get a 2019 second-round pick.)

At first, as usual, this put immediate attention on that No. 3 spot the Colts gave the Jets, with the focus on the annual tradition of somebody moving up to target some specific player, usually a quarterback.

And, yes, if the Jets can solve this century’s quagmire at quarterback with that pick, it will be draft capital well spent from the perspective of New York general manager Mike Maccagan and head coach Todd Bowles.

As for the Colts, franchise quarterback Andrew Luck is apparently on the mend — still or again, depending on one’s perspective — and they now have four of the first 49 picks in this draft.

General manager Chris Ballard put the Colts in position to be big winners, right? If so, who are the prospects that Ballard and new head coach Frank Reich might target with pick Nos. 6, 36, 37 and 49?

Speaking for NFLDraftScout.com, I will provide an educated guess with three candidates and a rationale for each pick.

 

–No. 6 overall: Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame

Rationale: Excluding the quarterbacks, Nelson is almost universally regarded as one of the five best players in the draft. His brawling style and durability would be welcome additions to a Colts’ line flush with talent but lacking health, and therefore, consistency.

Other options at No. 6 include Alabama’s heady, versatile defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick or gambling on the upside of Virginia Tech’s terrifically toolsy Tremaine Edmunds.

 

–No. 36 overall: Ronald Jones, RB, Southern California

Rationale: Ask the folks in Jacksonville (Leonard Fournette), Kansas City (Kareem Hunt) or New Orleans (Alvin Kamara), few positions can spark a playoff run like a playmaking running back. Jones, a terrific all-around back with track speed, is perfectly suited to today’s up-tempo RPO offenses.

Several other top-rated running backs highlight the Colts’ top options at No. 36. Frankly, any of the top seven backs on NFLDraftScout.com’s RB rankings would be a significant upgrade at a position the club should reinforce to protect Luck.

Beyond that, a blue-collar edge rusher like Ohio State’s Sam Hubbard would help the Colts’ transition to a more traditional 4-3 alignment. A long, physical corner like Auburn’s Carlton Davis would be other good fit.

 

–No. 37 overall: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

Rationale: Whether the Colts take advantage of the better value at receiver on Day Two than in the first round or not, Indianapolis is going to feature a lot of inexperience at receiver next season. Other than star T.Y. Hilton, there is not a receiver on the roster with a single NFL touchdown reception. The 6-3, 218-pound Sutton is a proven weapon in the red zone with the sharp route-running and soft hands to quickly became a QB favorite.

Fellow wideout James Washington from Oklahoma State is another polished pass catcher who would be a good value at No. 37. The Colts could go back to the Stanford well with tackle-happy tough guy Harrison Phillips, a 6-3, 307-pounder who finished first in the bench press at the Combine (42 repetitions of 225 pounds) and more importantly, led the nation’s defensive linemen in tackles last season with an incredible 100 stops.

 

–No. 49 overall: Rasheem Green, DE, Southern California

Rationale: The Colts ranked 31st in the NFL a year ago in sacks, recording just 25 in 16 games (the Bucs had 22), in part prompting the switch to a 4-3 base. Generating more of a pass rush would be a lot easier with a toolsy prospect like Green, a 6-4, 275-pounder who registered 10 sacks in the Pac-12 last season and appears to be just scratching the surface of his potential.

Green checks in at 50th on NFLDraftScout.com’s overall rankings, although the lack of talented pass rushers in the draft and free agency could push him up the board on draft day. There is terrific value at three other positions of concern — interior OL, RB and WR — the Colts addressed in this exercise, which is why Indianapolis looks like a potentially big winner in this trade. Nevada offensive lineman Austin Corbett and Colorado cornerback Isaiah Oliver are two other schematic fits with second-round values.

 

[Zoltan]

Kansas City (Kareem Hunt) 3rd Round Pick or New Orleans (Alvin Kamara) 3rd round pick.

 

This is a deep RB draft we shouldn't use a high 2nd round pick on a RB when we could get an O-Lineman, Pass rusher, or Linebacker. We can draft one with No. 49 (Eventhough I think we trade back with this pick and get extra picks) or early in the 3rd round.

[esmort]

Outside of Nelson I don't think I am a big fan of Rang's picks.

[Andrew Luck fan club]

Damn this is turrible. 

[atapcl]

Agreed, Nelson is the only one I believe Rang comes close to. 

[PeterBowman]

makes for a good conversation piece, but glad he's not the GM.

[shasta519]

This is similar to my thought process...fix the offense on day two (RB, WR, OG). Ideally, the Colts get a premium defensive player with the first pick and then go offense on day two.

 

I don't think they would be able to get Sutton that late...but I think day two will have tremendous value...and this mock shows that. If they can somehow get another pick or two on day two, it's on. 

[shasta519]

2 hours ago, Zoltan said:

Kansas City (Kareem Hunt) 3rd Round Pick or New Orleans (Alvin Kamara) 3rd round pick.

 

This is a deep RB draft we shouldn't use a high 2nd round pick on a RB when we could get an O-Lineman, Pass rusher, or Linebacker. We can draft one with No. 49 (Eventhough I think we trade back with this pick and get extra picks) or early in the 3rd round.

 

Not sure how long they will be able to wait on RB. I don't think any of the top ones are getting past the 2nd round this year. I can't see all of those GMs who didn't pull the trigger on Hunt or Kamara in the 2nd round (Ballard among them) making that decision again.

 

If the Colts want one, I think they will have to pull the trigger. Personally, I would love to see a couple more 2nd round picks. If BUF offered their two 2nd round picks, I would probably take that deal today.

[BOTT]

Note to self: ignore rob rang

[dgambill]

1 hour ago, esmort said:

Outside of Nelson I don't think I am a big fan of Rang's picks.

He doesn't even mention Chubb with the first pick. I see no reason one or the other shouldn't be there for us. I agree that 36 is too high for Jones. Not really feeling his picks.

I'd rather go something like either/or any combo of these guys.

 

6   Chubb DE NCST/Nelson G ND

36  Wynn OG Georgia/Hubbard DE OSU

37 Bryan DT Florida/Phillips DT Stanford

49 Jefferson LB Texas/Hughes CB UCF

67 Penny RB  SDST/Ballage RB ASU

 

[AZColt11]

I agree.  Not a big fan.  Like the players, just not where he has them going.  Too much offense that high in the draft.

[Fluke_33]

i usually like Rang's draft pieces but if we spend our first three picks on offense i will lose my mind.  

[dgambill]

4 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

i usually like Rang's draft pieces but if we spend our first three picks on offense i will lose my mind.  

This is a deep draft for DT and CB in my opinion. I think he has the assets that we likely go after a couple of those players in the second round. I think Chubb is the #6 pick if he is there for us. Anything can happen but we should land a good player there and its likely defense. I think he tries to get by at wr with free agents this year and holds out for a better crop next year. This years class is weak. Imo we see some combo of ER,OL,DT,CB/LB, RB in those first 5 picks. I just don't see a WR worth selecting that high which is why I think the FA market was so hot for WRs this year. Even RB is just a maybe. I think its going to be a heavy focus on the trenches.

[lollygagger8]

I feel like whoever Rang is, if he was important, I'd know who he is. 

[w87r]

17 hours ago, dgambill said:

He doesn't even mention Chubb with the first pick. I see no reason one or the other shouldn't be there for us. I agree that 36 is too high for Jones. Not really feeling his picks.

I'd rather go something like either/or any combo of these guys.

 

6   Chubb DE NCST/Nelson G ND

36  Wynn OG Georgia/Hubbard DE OSU

37 Bryan DT Florida/Phillips DT Stanford

49 Jefferson LB Texas/Hughes CB UCF

67 Penny RB  SDST/Ballage RB ASU

 

If you are going with Wynn/Hubbard at #36, why wouldn't you take the the one you didn't take at #36, at #37?

[ColtsBlueFL]

Once again this year as last, I haven't created my vertical (best player list) and horizontal (best player by position) boards. Likely won't.  But I'd like to find DE or O line (G), MLB, 3 Tech, WR/RB if the board actually falls that way in player grading.

 

I guess I;ll start paying attention to mock as FA winds to a crawl until draft is over.  See how people have these areas ranked and with whom.

 

As for Rang's list...

 

 

[dgambill]

1 hour ago, w87r said:

If you are going with Wynn/Hubbard at #36, why wouldn't you take the the one you didn't take at #36, at #37?

I think we take a DT with one of those picks. The Wynn/Hubbard was contingent on who we take in the first. If we land Nelson we take the ER Hubbard and if we get Chubb we take the OG Wynn. Basically trying to fill holes the best we can. Considering we signed Mewhort back and brought in another possible starter in Slauson I don't think we double up early but who knows....this was just my attempt at balancing out the roster.

[Track Guy]

Disagree with those who are calling this terrible. It's not the exact same picks I would make but to get the best prospect in the draft Quenton Nelson at 6 and in my opinion the second best running back in the draft in Ronald Jones at 36. Now, after seeing Ballard's approach to free agency thus far, I don't think I'd go with a running back early this year. But I think the player is good value. As to the second 2 picks, I'm luke warm on them at those slots but certainly don't hate it. I'd like to add one of the talented linebackers or a defensive end, but it depends on who is still on the board.  

[Fluke_33]

2 hours ago, lollygagger8 said:

I feel like whoever Rang is, if he was important, I'd know who he is. 

I’m not saying he’s the second coming of bushbaum but for draftniks he’s been pretty good.  I hope he’s wrong on this one.  

[Fluke_33]

3 hours ago, dgambill said:

This is a deep draft for DT and CB in my opinion. I think he has the assets that we likely go after a couple of those players in the second round. I think Chubb is the #6 pick if he is there for us. Anything can happen but we should land a good player there and its likely defense. I think he tries to get by at wr with free agents this year and holds out for a better crop next year. This years class is weak. Imo we see some combo of ER,OL,DT,CB/LB, RB in those first 5 picks. I just don't see a WR worth selecting that high which is why I think the FA market was so hot for WRs this year. Even RB is just a maybe. I think its going to be a heavy focus on the trenches.

Thanks for talking me off the ledge.  Agree wholeheartedly 

[dgambill]

24 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

Thanks for talking me off the ledge.  Agree wholeheartedly 

Well....just so you know I've never predicted our pick correctly yet...so don't get too comfortable. I just think the value in the second should be interior lineman, defensive tackle, and secondary. Doesn't mean we go that route but those are the positions I predict should be high on the board. I'm a big Rashad Penny fan but even I hope that's taken at the first of the third round. Who knows for sure...it isn't even what we do but so dependent on what other teams do that will help shape our decision. I just take comfort in what Ballard has been saying all along. Building through the draft and valuing play in the trenches. I think he realizes that with a great qb like Luck you can surround him with just about any decent players and we will make plays on offense.

[w87r]

3 hours ago, dgambill said:

I think we take a DT with one of those picks. The Wynn/Hubbard was contingent on who we take in the first. If we land Nelson we take the ER Hubbard and if we get Chubb we take the OG Wynn. Basically trying to fill holes the best we can. Considering we signed Mewhort back and brought in another possible starter in Slauson I don't think we double up early but who knows....this was just my attempt at balancing out the roster.

Makes sense. Guess I should've looked a bit closer earlier. Was a quick glance at lunch.

[dgambill]

7 minutes ago, w87r said:

Makes sense. Guess I should've looked a bit closer earlier. Was a quick glance at lunch.

No worries...it was a rushed post before I headed out. Probably not very clear. We have a real good chance to stock the cup board this year and next. All we can hope is Ballards drafting is better than Grigsons. If not it won't matter how many picks we have....we won't get better.

[Steamboat_Shaun]

I could live with the Nelson pick at 6, but every other pick is brutal.

[Surge89]

11 hours ago, dgambill said:

This is a deep draft for DT and CB in my opinion. I think he has the assets that we likely go after a couple of those players in the second round. I think Chubb is the #6 pick if he is there for us. Anything can happen but we should land a good player there and its likely defense. I think he tries to get by at wr with free agents this year and holds out for a better crop next year. This years class is weak. Imo we see some combo of ER,OL,DT,CB/LB, RB in those first 5 picks. I just don't see a WR worth selecting that high which is why I think the FA market was so hot for WRs this year. Even RB is just a maybe. I think its going to be a heavy focus on the trenches.

 

Interesting.  I agree on the CB but the DT I'm a tad underwhelmed as far as 1st 2nd and 3rd round prospects.  They seem to be too one dimensional and or have development that I hesitate to take in the first 3 rounds.  4th round there will be great value for DT.

 

The other position I see that has tons and tons of value is linebacker.  From the end of the first till late 3rd there will be starter quality linebackers.  In fact this draft is pretty crummy at the top (blue chip) but pretty plentiful in the 2nd round and third round area with great value in CB, LB and WR (3rd round).  

[Crunked]

that's a great way to build a defense right thar.....offense-em  to death