Breaking Down The First 6 Picks

[masnerj]

We have a very exciting upcoming draft. BDB just pulled off a wonderful trade, getting 3 second rounders from the Jets in return for moving down 3 spots from #3 to #6 overall. For now, the top 5 is set and will likely remain the same till draft night. This post is about dissecting each pick and team and looking at the possibilities that exist for the Colts at #6. Alright, let's get to it.

 

#1 Overall - Browns: QB#1

It is widely expected that the Browns will draft a QB here. They signed Carlos Hyde to a big deal (for a running back) and are trying to extend Duke Johnson. Hyde + Johnson would be a very solid RB committee and drafting Barkley here would be a waste. They finally made the move to hire a competent GM in Dorsey and you can bet that his most important job in revitalizing the Browns franchise is to get a franchise quarterback. For the purposes of this activity, it doesn't really matter who it is actually. Let's just call him QB #1. (I personally think it is going to be Darnold 90% chance, 10% chance Josh Allen). 

 

#2 Overall - QB#2

This is where it starts to get interesting. The Giants clearly have a few issues that need addressing: their QB situation, their need to rebuild their OLine, to name a few. In my opinion, there are really only three practical options for the Giants. The first is them falling in love with Barkley and trusting Manning's next few years. The second is a team like Denver or the Bills offering a lot of money to move up for a QB. The last is them drafting a QB like Rosen, stealing an option away from the Jets and setting up a nice little succession plan. The latter two are the more likely options. Thus, in my opinion there is a >80% chance the pick here will be a QB, whether it is the Giants or Denver (Bills would probably have to give up way too much to move to #2 after the Jets deal). My personal opinion is that the Giants fall in love with Rosen and give him a chance to sit behind Manning for a year or two in a Rodgers type situation. That could help him get acclimated to the NY market and media and maybe even with Manning's mentoring tone down the public nature of some of his extreme views.

 

#3 Overall - Jets: QB#3

The Jets are probably hoping that the Giants stay put and draft a non QB like Nelson or Barkley. That would give them the 2nd choice of the top QBs. Realistically that probably isn't going to happen. But regardless, they didn't give up 3 second round picks to pick up Barkley or a non-QB. The 3rd QB of the draft is probably going to be picked up by the Jets. 

 

#4 Overall - Browns: Chubb or Trade Down with the Bills and the Bills select QB#4

Unfortunately the Browns are going to be the X-Factor in whether or not Chubb falls all the way down to us. In my opinion, there is no way they should give up the opportunity to have a Chubb-Garrett tandem for the next decade. That would give them a potential Freeney - Mathis duo where both guys could reasonably be 10+ sack guys. The other option is that the Bills are desperate for a QB and don't want to miss out on the remaining 4th option (aka Mayfield) and give up the farm to move up and draft him. This is the scenario that we want and should hope to God for. 

 

#5 Overall - Denver: If #4 is Chubb, remaining QB. If#4 is QB, Nelson or Fitzpatrick

Denver is in an interesting spot. They don't necessarily NEED a QB but if the 4th QB is still on the board (especially if its Josh Allen), then it could make sense to draft him and have him sit behind Keenum for a year or two at the very least. If the top 4 QBs are gone, then they probably draft Nelson or Fitzpatrick.

 

#6 Overall - Colts: If Chubb and Barkley are still on the board, see how much the Bucs would give up to be able to choose who they want. If they don't give up a lot, draft Chubb. Otherwise, draft Barkley if he is there (the dude is a generational talent and is worth more than another trade down or Nelson). Dangle the pick to everybody else and see if you can get more value then Nelson. Otherwise, draft Nelson and be extremely happy that your last option was a generational player at the guard position and a player that can be an All-Pro fixture for many years.

[Dr. T]

Worst case scenario: If Barkley, Chubb and 3 QBs are off the board, we see what deal we can get for the 4th QB. However, we MUST still wind up with a key player like Smith or Edmunds. If a trade down causes us to lose out on our LB of choice, we stick at #6 and pick Edmunds. I would be very disappointed if we chose Nelson in the top 10. No guard is worth that slot in my opinion.

[DougDew]

10 minutes ago, Dr. T said:

Worst case scenario: If Barkley, Chubb and 3 QBs are off the board, we see what deal we can get for the 4th QB. However, we MUST still wind up with a key player like Smith or Edmunds. If a trade down causes us to lose out on our LB of choice, we stick at #6 and pick Edmunds. I would be very disappointed if we chose Nelson in the top 10. No guard is worth that slot in my opinion.

Yep. Smith, Edmunds, or even McGlinchey should have always been our round 1 target.  Not Barkley,  Chubb, or Nelson.

[Andrew Luck fan club]

23 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Yep. Smith, Edmunds, or even McGlinchey should have always been our round 1 target.  Not Barkley,  Chubb, or Nelson.

You’re saying McGlinchey should be higher on our boards than Chubb and Nelson?

[DougDew]

Just now, Andrew Luck fan club said:

You’re saying McGlinchey should be higher on our boards than Chubb and Nelson?

No.  I'm saying we should target him instead of Chubb or Nelson.

[Andrew Luck fan club]

5 minutes ago, DougDew said:

No.  I'm saying we should target him instead of Chubb or Nelson.

Chubb is a much better prospect than Mike. Nelson is too. Both are also bigger needs. 

 

Why do you think we should taget Mike over them?

[DougDew]

7 minutes ago, Andrew Luck fan club said:

Chubb is a much better prospect than Mike. Nelson is too. Both are also bigger needs. 

 

Why do you think we should taget Mike over them?

Because we get more players in a trade down.  And RT is as big of a need as G, and its easier to find a good G.  And McG can flip to the left side and take over for AC in a few years, keeping us from having to use a future 1st rounder on another LT.

 

A once in a lifetime G is really not needed.  We only need a good one.

[lollygagger8]

39 minutes ago, DougDew said:

No.  I'm saying we should target him instead of Chubb or Nelson.

 

 

[DougDew]

3 minutes ago, lollygagger8 said:

 

 

Over your head?

[Andrew Luck fan club]

48 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Because we get more players in a trade down.  And RT is as big of a need as G, and its easier to find a good G.  And McG can flip to the left side and take over for AC in a few years, keeping us from having to use a future 1st rounder on another LT.

 

A once in a lifetime G is really not needed.  We only need a good one.

So you’re implying we trade down from 6 and then take Mike? That’s not as bad. I agree on your opinion about Nelson. I would much rather have Chubb if possible though. Edmunds is pretty enticing also.. 

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Yep. Smith, Edmunds, or even McGlinchey should have always been our round 1 target.  Not Barkley,  Chubb, or Nelson.

 

I would add James and Fitzpatrick to that list as well. Another top S would give the Colts defense an identity (and I think we are going to see a shift in how Ss are valued...surprised it hasn't already happened).

 

I like Chubb just fine...but if I can get more high-value picks (this year and/or next) AND still get Edmunds, that's the direction I am going. Edmunds is my preference, but there are a handful of players I would be happy with if they traded down again.

 

I don't think the top of this draft is as strong as year's past. Convenienly, this plays perfectly for the Colts because they can trade back and not miss out. 

 

If the draft board falls so that one of Darnold/Allen/Rosen/Mayfield somehow makes it to #6 (not likely)...Ballard is going to take another team to the cleaners. And if one doesn't, I bet he will gladly take another day two pick to swap spots with TB.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Ballard is eyeing next year's draft as well. Teams are typically pretty generous with future picks and I could see Ballard taking advantage...especially with next year's draft being very deep in DL and pass rushing talent.

[DougDew]

3 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

I would add James and Fitzpatrick to that list as well. Another top S would give the Colts defense an identity (and I think we are going to see a shift in how Ss are valued...surprised it hasn't already happened).

 

I like Chubb just fine...but if I can get more high-value picks (this year and/or next) AND still get Edmunds, that's the direction I am going. Edmunds is my preference, but there are a handful of players I would be happy with if they traded down again.

 

I don't think the top of this draft is as strong as year's past. Convenienly, this plays perfectly for the Colts because they can trade back and not miss out. 

 

If the draft board falls so that one of Darnold/Allen/Rosen/Mayfield somehow makes it to #6 (not likely)...Ballard is going to take another team to the cleaners. And if one doesn't, I bet he will gladly take another day two pick to swap spots with TB.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Ballard is eyeing next year's draft as well. Teams are typically pretty generous with future picks and I could see Ballard taking advantage...especially with next year's draft being very deep in DL and pass rushing talent.

If a G is talked about the top 5, yes, the top of this draft is not as strong as many others.  A couple of years ago, every writeup had C Ryan Kelly as a cant miss sure thing.  He was drafted 18.

 

My preference would be to target the 12th best player in this draft at pick 12, then hopefully get the 22nd best player at 22 also.

[Dr. T]

The only problem with trading with Buffalo and going down to #12 is that both Edmunds and Smith (and Nelson) will probably be gone. I'm not sure Ballard would risk that unless he values another player as much as Chubb and the top 2 LBs.

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

3 hours ago, DougDew said:

Yep. Smith, Edmunds, or even McGlinchey should have always been our round 1 target.  Not Barkley,  Chubb, or Nelson.

Your Nuts!!

[FalseStart]

2 hours ago, Dr. T said:

The only problem with trading with Buffalo and going down to #12 is that both Edmunds and Smith (and Nelson) will probably be gone. I'm not sure Ballard would risk that unless he values another player as much as Chubb and the top 2 LBs.

 

I've pondered this as well...but if they give us 12 and 22....maybe a second.  Have to consider it due to our overall team needs.

[crestmount]

Browns pick Darnold

Denver trades up to #2 to get Rosen

Jets pick Mayfield

Browns pick Barkley

Giants pick Chubb

Colts pick Nelson

Edited March 21, 2018 by crestmount

[Hoo-Hoo-Hoo-Hoosiers]

6 minutes ago, crestmount said:

Browns pick Darnold

Denver trades up to #2 to get Rosen

Jets pick Mayfield

Browns pick Barkley

Giants pick Chubb

Tampa trades up to #6 to get Allen

Colts pick Nelson

Tampa has Jameis Winston, why would they trade up for a QB?

[crestmount]

My error

[lollygagger8]

20 hours ago, DougDew said:

Over your head?

 

Yes, your football acumen is too much for my small brain to comprehend. 

[Dr. T]

14 hours ago, crestmount said:

Browns pick Darnold

Denver trades up to #2 to get Rosen

Jets pick Mayfield

Browns pick Barkley

Giants pick Chubb

Colts pick Nelson

We will not pick a guard in the top 10. If we stay put, it will be for the best linebacker, not the best guard.

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

1 hour ago, Dr. T said:

We will not pick a guard in the top 10. If we stay put, it will be for the best linebacker, not the best guard.

The guard has way more talent than any LB in this draft IMO it's Nelson! Protect Luck!

[gacker65]

Think outside the box.  According to Rappaport and Garafolo, the Giants had a chance trade out already and they are still there.

 

With that in mind: 

  1. Either Barkley or QB.  I am leaning more toward Barkley.

  2. Either Barkley or Nelson.  Either gives Eli a ground game or help on O-line.

  3. QB

  4. Depends on first pick.  If Barkley then QB.  If QB, Chubb or maybe Nelson

  5. If Nelson is here, then Denver drafts him.  If not, maybe a QB, maybe Fiztpatrick, maybe Edmunds.

  6.If it plays out like this, then I would trade back with Buffalo for both of their 1st round and any other picks I could get.

 

At 12, I would look for Smith, or any other that will help our team.

At 22, I would look at Hernandez.  I do not think he will be there in the 2nd round.  With both Wynn and Price hury, I see them dropping some.

 

This is how I see the top 6 picks goingarkley

:

1.  Barkley

2.  Nelson

3.  QB

4.  QB

5.  Depends?????

6.  ?????

[crazycolt1]

14 minutes ago, gacker65 said:

Think outside the box.  According to Rappaport and Garafolo, the Giants had a chance trade out already and they are still there.

 

With that in mind: 

  1. Either Barkley or QB.  I am leaning more toward Barkley.

  2. Either Barkley or Nelson.  Either gives Eli a ground game or help on O-line.

  3. QB

  4. Depends on first pick.  If Barkley then QB.  If QB, Chubb or maybe Nelson

  5. If Nelson is here, then Denver drafts him.  If not, maybe a QB, maybe Fiztpatrick, maybe Edmunds.

  6.If it plays out like this, then I would trade back with Buffalo for both of their 1st round and any other picks I could get.

 

At 12, I would look for Smith, or any other that will help our team.

At 22, I would look at Hernandez.  I do not think he will be there in the 2nd round.  With both Wynn and Price hury, I see them dropping some.

 

This is how I see the top 6 picks goingarkley

:

1.  Barkley

2.  Nelson

3.  QB

4.  QB

5.  Depends?????

6.  ?????

IMO the Giants will take Barkley if the Browns don't.

The Giants don't have a RB on their roster that has much talent. With them saying they are going with Eli I think they will try to give him the best weapons they can. They already have the receivers and TE so naturally the best RB would give him a pretty nice arsenal to work with.

Right along with the Colts they will also be looking for O-line help in the second round and will be picking before the Colts.

[aaron11]

16 minutes ago, gacker65 said:

Think outside the box.  According to Rappaport and Garafolo, the Giants had a chance trade out already and they are still there.

 

With that in mind: 

  1. Either Barkley or QB.  I am leaning more toward Barkley.

  2. Either Barkley or Nelson.  Either gives Eli a ground game or help on O-line.

  3. QB

  4. Depends on first pick.  If Barkley then QB.  If QB, Chubb or maybe Nelson

  5. If Nelson is here, then Denver drafts him.  If not, maybe a QB, maybe Fiztpatrick, maybe Edmunds.

  6.If it plays out like this, then I would trade back with Buffalo for both of their 1st round and any other picks I could get.

 

At 12, I would look for Smith, or any other that will help our team.

At 22, I would look at Hernandez.  I do not think he will be there in the 2nd round.  With both Wynn and Price hury, I see them dropping some.

 

This is how I see the top 6 picks goingarkley

:

1.  Barkley

2.  Nelson

3.  QB

4.  QB

5.  Depends?????

6.  ?????

denver could take chubb there, but hopefully they would go with mayfield or mink 

 

we would need to be careful about moving back if chubb, barkley and nelson are all gone.  we could miss out on all of the tier one guys if we drop back much further 

 

edmunds or mink could be ok at 6

[gacker65]

1 minute ago, crazycolt1 said:

IMO the Giants will take Barkley if the Browns don't.

The Giants don't have a RB on their roster that has much talent. With them saying they are going with Eli I think they will try to give him the best weapons they can. They already have the receivers and TE so naturally the best RB would give him a pretty nice arsenal to work with.

Right along with the Colts they will also be looking for O-line help in the second round and will be picking before the Colts.

I agree.  Would be better to trade down with Buffalo and take one of those I mentioned at 12, then grab Hernanadez at 22.

[aaron11]

3 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

IMO the Giants will take Barkley if the Browns don't.

The Giants don't have a RB on their roster that has much talent. With them saying they are going with Eli I think they will try to give him the best weapons they can. They already have the receivers and TE so naturally the best RB would give him a pretty nice arsenal to work with.

Right along with the Colts they will also be looking for O-line help in the second round and will be picking before the Colts.

they have a really interesting choice to make if barkley is there.  they could try to win now, or set themselves up for the future with eli's replacement.

 

on one hand they dont really need to do that right now, but they wont pick this high again anytime soon, especially if they get barkley.

[gacker65]

1 minute ago, aaron11 said:

denver could take chubb there, but hopefully they would go with mayfield or mink 

 

we would need to be careful about moving back if chubb, barkley and nelson are all gone.  we could miss out on all of the tier one guys if we drop back much further 

 

edmunds or mink could be ok at 6

I only like Minkah if he is playing CB.  Would like Edmunds, but be moving back, we can get a good Guard in Hernandez.

[crazycolt1]

1 minute ago, aaron11 said:

they have a really interesting choice to make if barkley is there.  they could try to win now, or set themselves up for the future with eli's replacement.

 

on one hand they dont really need to do that right now, but they wont pick this high again anytime soon, especially if they get barkley.

One thing to keep in mind is the Giants are in the same division as the Eagles. If they expect to be competitive with them they have to get a running game for their passing game to open up.

[FalseStart]

Top Selections in the first 6

 

1. Darnold QB or Rosen QB

2. Barkley RB or Chubb DE or Nelson G

3. Rosen QB or Allen QB or Mayfield QB or Darnold QB

4. Fitzpatrick CB or Ward CB

5. Allen QB or Fitzpatrick CB or Nelson G or Ward CB

6. Chubb DE or Nelson G or Barkley RB

[gacker65]

14 hours ago, FalseStart said:

Top Selections in the first 6

 

1. Darnold QB or Rosen QB

2. Barkley RB or Chubb DE or Nelson G

3. Rosen QB or Allen QB or Mayfield QB or Darnold QB

4. Fitzpatrick CB or Ward CB

5. Allen QB or Fitzpatrick CB or Nelson G or Ward CB

6. Chubb DE or Nelson G or Barkley RB

Why would you pass on the best player in the draft when you can get one of your QBs at 4?????

[FalseStart]

3 hours ago, gacker65 said:

Why would you pass on the best player in the draft when you can get one of your QBs at 4?????

5 question marks...really. Because. 1st they get their guy at one at the most important position. 50% Fail...got to keep taking a shot.  They already have serviceable RB(s)... Barkley is only slightly better than a few other RBs they can grab in round 2 or 3. 2nd Pick: 28 TD passes against that Defense in 2017 4 highest in the league. 7 picks for that unit. 2nd fewest. Their 4th should go CB. IMO

 

 

 

[gacker65]

5 hours ago, FalseStart said:

5 question marks...really. Because. 1st they get their guy at one at the most important position. 50% Fail...got to keep taking a shot.  They already have serviceable RB(s)... Barkley is only slightly better than a few other RBs they can grab in round 2 or 3. 2nd Pick: 28 TD passes against that Defense in 2017 4 highest in the league. 7 picks for that unit. 2nd fewest. Their 4th should go CB. IMO

 

 

 

The 5 question marks started because of my kids.

 

Barkley is head and shoulders above the rest of the RBs.   Serviceable should not cut it if you can get the best.

 

I do not believe the Browns are sure which QB they want yet.  Take Barkley 1st and your Offense is better immediately.  At 4, only one QB will be gone

 

Fitzpatrick is 4th or 5th ranked player depending on who you read. The first QB in ranked 7th or 8th, again depending.

 

I do not see Fitzpatrick being better than Barkley, Nelson, or Chubb..

[FalseStart]

36 minutes ago, gacker65 said:

The 5 question marks started because of my kids.

 

Barkley is head and shoulders above the rest of the RBs.   Serviceable should not cut it if you can get the best.

 

I do not believe the Browns are sure which QB they want yet.  Take Barkley 1st and your Offense is better immediately.  At 4, only one QB will be gone

 

Fitzpatrick is 4th or 5th ranked player depending on who you read. The first QB in ranked 7th or 8th, again depending.

 

I do not see Fitzpatrick being better than Barkley, Nelson, or Chubb..

 

When you dig you start to see the bigger picture. Not saying Barkley's not a top 10 pick.  Just saying a teams need overrides certain picks... 

 

 

[OLD FAN MAN]

8 hours ago, gacker65 said:

Why would you pass on the best player in the draft when you can get one of your QBs at 4?????

i agree barkley will go first

[BOTT]

Everyone knows the Browns are taking a QB #1.

[Four2itus]

2 minutes ago, BOTT said:

Everyone knows the Browns are taking a QB #1.

What could be hard to accept for many, is when Barkley is still there at 6 and we take someone else.....

[BOTT]

1 minute ago, Four2itus said:

What could be hard to accept for many, is when Barkley is still there at 6 and we take someone else.....

I would love it

[richard pallo]

What all of these comments tells me is that there are numerous ways the draft could unfold.  There are a number of teams above us that could trade their pick just like the Colts.  The smartest thing Ballard could do is trade the pick now to the Bills or the Dolphins before the draft unfolds.  He did it already and he would smart to do it again.  He would still be in the top 12 at worse and he would acquire many valuable top rd. picks this year and next. There is no reason to get greedy.  The majority of the key private workouts are over. Teams are finalizing their boards and calculating probabilities.  He should strike 1st before one of the other teams decides to make a move.  I think waiting to draft day would be a mistake.  I'm really hoping he trades again and quickly.