Colts Improve 326 Draft Power Points in 2018 (Plus 2019 2nd)

[BlueShoe]

Chris Ballard nailed this. In the end, this trade will gain the Colts anywhere from 596 to 906 additional points on the Trade Value Chart. 

 

On the low end, 596 points is equivalent to a late-first round pick (31, 32). On the high end, 906 points is equivalent a mid-first round pick (18th overall). 

 

Pre Colts and Jets trade the Colts had a 2018 Draft Power of 3,189. After the trade, the Colts have a Draft Power of 3,515 (a 326 point improvement). That's not counting the 2019 second rounder to boot which could add value anywhere from 270 to 580.

 

To put these numbers into perspective the Saints (973), Chiefs (865), Texans (728), and Eagles (725) all have under 1,000 Draft Power Points for their entire 2018 draft.

 

Top 10 Draft Power for 2018 NFL Draft:

 

https://footballdungeon.com/draft-power/draft-power-2018/

 

Draft Team	Total Picks	Selections	Draft Power
Cleveland Browns	9	1, 4, 33, 35, 64, 114, 150, 175, 205	6,352
New York Giants	5	2, 34, 66, 102, 139	3,570
Indianapolis Colts	9	6, 36, 37, 49, 67, 104, 140, 178, 221	3,515
Buffalo Bills	9	12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96, 121, 166, 187	3,182
Denver Broncos	11	5, 40, 71, 99, 106, 109, 142, 160, 163, 182, 225	2,861
New York Jets	6	3, 72, 107, 157, 179, 235	2,583
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	7, 38, 69, 108, 144, 180, 202, 255	2,433
San Francisco 49ers	9	9, 59, 70, 74, 128, 143, 184, 223, 240	2,249
Oakland Raiders	11	10, 41, 75, 110, 185, 192, 210, 212, 216, 217, 228	2,202
Chicago Bears	7	8, 39, 105, 115, 145, 181, 224	2,153

[Fluke_33]

13 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

Chris Ballard nailed this. In the end, this trade will gain the Colts anywhere from 596 to 906 additional points on the Trade Value Chart. 

 

On the low end, 596 points is equivalent to a late-first round pick (31, 32). On the high end, 906 points is equivalent a mid-first round pick (18th overall). 

 

Pre Colts and Jets trade the Colts had a 2018 Draft Power of 3,189. After the trade, the Colts have a Draft Power of 3,515 (a 326 point improvement). That's not counting the 2019 second rounder to boot which could be add value anywhere from 270 to 580.

 

Top 10 Draft Power for 2018 NFL Draft:

 

https://footballdungeon.com/draft-power/draft-power-2018/

 

Draft Team	Total Picks	Selections	Draft Power
Cleveland Browns	9	1, 4, 33, 35, 64, 114, 150, 175, 205	6,352
New York Giants	5	2, 34, 66, 102, 139	3,570
Indianapolis Colts	9	6, 36, 37, 49, 67, 104, 140, 178, 221	3,515
Buffalo Bills	9	12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96, 121, 166, 187	3,182
Denver Broncos	11	5, 40, 71, 99, 106, 109, 142, 160, 163, 182, 225	2,861
New York Jets	6	3, 72, 107, 157, 179, 235	2,583
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	7, 38, 69, 108, 144, 180, 202, 255	2,433
San Francisco 49ers	9	9, 59, 70, 74, 128, 143, 184, 223, 240	2,249
Oakland Raiders	11	10, 41, 75, 110, 185, 192, 210, 212, 216, 217, 228	2,202
Chicago Bears	7	8, 39, 105, 115, 145, 181, 224	2,153

Very cool.  Thank you for posting

[Smonroe]

No offense, but that’s kind of meaningless.  The only way we ‘win’ the trade is if the three 2nd founders become real contributors.  

 

Ballard definitely increased the odds of getting better players with the additional 2s, while only very slightly decreasing the odds of our #1 works out.  

 

Nevermind, after typing this I realized that’s what you’re saying with the points.  So, I’ll delete this post... oops...

[Peterk2011]

This is a wastly unbalanced trade favoring the the Colts side.The Jets practically given up similar value what the Bills wouldve had normally, had they traded up. I can imagine this was a bidding war, the Jets and the Bills are both on the phone, and the Jets have won it by matching the Bills offer, but giving up their 1/6 instead of the Bills 1/12.

 

I hope Luck will be fine, because finding a new franchise QB would be hard and costly. We just saw how costly this can be. Unless you are so lucky that a Manning / Luck lands in your hands when you happen to suck and pick at 1/1 in every 20 years.

[That Guy]

If Chubb and/or Nelson falls to six, this is just free picks!

[aaron11]

we need a big hit on one of those picks, chart value is meaningless after the draft 

 

i think its a good trade now, but im not ready to call it great unless we get another good player to make missing chubb worth it

[BlueShoe]

13 minutes ago, Peterk2011 said:

This is a wastly unbalanced trade favoring the the Colts side.The Jets practically given up similar value what the Bills wouldve had normally, had they traded up. I can imagine this was a bidding war, the Jets and the Bills are both on the phone, and the Jets have won it by matching the Bills offer, but giving up their 1/6 instead of the Bills 1/12.

 

I hope Luck will be fine, because finding a new franchise QB would be hard and costly. We just saw how costly this can be. Unless you are so lucky that a Manning / Luck lands in your hands when you happen to suck and pick at 1/1 in every 20 years.

 

I agree.

 

Ballard does mention talks with other teams during the negotiation process with the Jets. I can only assume he was talking about Buffalo when he said that we wanted to stay in the top 10. 

 

 

[chad72]

14 minutes ago, Peterk2011 said:

This is a wastly unbalanced trade favoring the the Colts side.The Jets practically given up similar value what the Bills wouldve had normally, had they traded up. I can imagine this was a bidding war, the Jets and the Bills are both on the phone, and the Jets have won it by matching the Bills offer, but giving up their 1/6 instead of the Bills 1/12.

 

I hope Luck will be fine, because finding a new franchise QB would be hard and costly. We just saw how costly this can be. Unless you are so lucky that a Manning / Luck lands in your hands when you happen to suck and pick at 1/1 in every 20 years.

 

Could be worse for the Jets, they could have been fleeced like the RG3 trade. However, I don't think we are going to see trades like that in the future (it just takes one though). This is as good as it gets for the Colts.

 

Let us say 1 QB goes to the Browns, 1 to the Jets and the Broncos go OL, most likely Nelson, there will be at least 1 of 3 QBs left on the board that might interest the Bills. If both Chubb and Nelson are gone, I move down with Buffalo if they are willing. It will take their 12th, 53rd/56th and the 65th for the Bills to move up from 12th to the 6th. If you play hard ball, we might get the 12th and the 53rd and 56th. If Josh Allen gets past the Broncos, our phones are going to be ringing.

[BlueShoe]

4 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

we need a big hit on one of those picks, chart value is meaningless after the draft 

 

i think its a good trade now, but im not ready to call it great unless we get another good player to make missing chubb worth it

 

This definitely fits Ballard's style.

 

I think the same way. I would rather be on our side of this trade. Now IF we needed a quarterback, then it would be different. Teams have to pay dearly to draft a quarterback high. 

[BlueShoe]

12 minutes ago, That Guy said:

If Chubb and/or Nelson falls to six, this is just free picks!

 

I agree. 

 

I think Nelson is our guy. I've thought that for some time now, and I thought we would move back to get him. 

[chad72]

1 minute ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I agree. 

 

I think Nelson is our guy. I've thought that for some time now, and I thought we would move back to get him. 

 

Broncos could mess it up because they got Case Keenum and might go for Nelson. It is very likely. Their OL was worse than ours, from the few times I saw them as the season went on.

[aaron11]

4 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

This definitely fits Ballard's style.

 

I think the same way. I would rather be on our side of this trade. Now IF we needed a quarterback, then it would be different. Teams have to pay dearly to draft a quarterback high. 

yeah, people that like trading back and getting more picks should love this

 

i like the trade, but i want to see us get a really good player with one of those second round picks to make it worth it.  generally i like getting higher rated prospects more than i like trading back

 

if we get three guys of wilsons caliber(our last second round pick)  then meh

[Luck 4 president]

I really think Chubb will be at 6. This is how I see it going:

Browns - QB

NY - QB

Jets - QB

Browns - Saquan

Broncos - QB

 

[BlueShoe]

6 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Broncos could mess it up because they got Case Keenum and might go for Nelson. It is very likely.

 

I see this differently. I think the Broncos are going to do everything it takes to get Josh Allen. I believe Elway has a man crush on him. I think Elway sees himself in Josh Allen. Broncos might even move up to 2 with the Giants. I could even see Denver moving up 1 spot with Cleveland to ensure they get Josh Allen. 

 

Anything is possible, and Nelson would be worthy.

[chad72]

5 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I see this differently. I think the Broncos are going to do everything it takes to get Josh Allen. I believe Elway has a man crush on him. I think Elway sees himself in Josh Allen. If they have to move up to 2 then I think they will. I could even see Denver moving up 1 spot with Cleveland to ensure they get Josh Allen. 

 

Anything is possible, and Nelson would be worthy.

 

I hope you are right.

 

If Nelson is there at 6, I would not move back any further at that point. Like another poster said, moving back in the second then becomes an option. Broncos have then been to Josh Rosen, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield's Pro Days and Baker Mayfield apparently went up to Gary Kubiak and made sure to have a chat, I heard on Broncos sites. Broncos coaches were also running the Senior Bowl drills including the QB drills for Mayfield. 

 

Elway has had a habit of going for the physical attributes, that big tall guy who could get by with athleticism and not a high level of intellect and ability under pressure. He swung and missed with Osweiler and Lynch along those lines. He also witnessed the contrast with Peyton. Now, I feel he might take a different path and go Mayfield instead of Allen. That is what my gut tells me, if Elway does go the QB route.

[aaron11]

7 minutes ago, Luck 4 president said:

I really think Chubb will be at 6. This is how I see it going:

Browns - QB

NY - QB

Jets - QB

Browns - Saquan

Broncos - QB

 

that would be great.  i dont know if denver would pull the trigger on the 4th qb in the last 5 picks though

[Btown_Colt]

18 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I agree.

 

Ballard does mention talks with other teams during the negotiation process with the Jets. I can only assume he was talking about Buffalo when he said that we wanted to stay in the top 10. 

 

 

It it sounds to me like Ballard has a single player in mind that he will be able to get at 6

[BlueShoe]

9 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

I hope you are right.

 

If Nelson is there at 6, I would not move back any further at that point. Like another poster said, moving back in the second then becomes an option. Broncos have then been to both Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield's Pro Days and Baker Mayfield apparently went up to Gary Kubiak and made sure to have a chat, it felt like. Broncos coaches were also running the Senior Bowl drills including the QB drills for Mayfield. 

 

Elway has had a habit of going for the physical attributes, that big tall guy who could get by with athleticism and not a high level of intellect. He swung and missed with Osweiler and Lynch along those lines. Now, I feel he might take a different path and go Mayfield instead of Allen. That is what my gut tells me, if Elway does go the QB route.

 

I understand your logic. However, I believe Allen is on a completely different stratosphere than Lynch or Osweiler. I think most people around the NFL see that too.

 

I think at least 3 quarterbacks and Barkley are going in the top 5. We could possibly see 4 quarterbacks and Barkley go in the top 5. 

 

If the Giants take Barkley then Cleveland could move back twice. First with Denver for Allen, and again with Buffalo for Mayfield. Cleveland could clean up here if the Giants take Barkley. However, that would leave Nelson and Chubb on the board for the Colts. 

[BlueShoe]

Just now, Btown_Colt said:

It it sounds to me like Ballard has a single player in mind that he will be able to get at 6

 

I agree and I think it's Nelson. It could be Chubb though. I am not ruling that possibility out. 

[Peterk2011]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

Could be worse for the Jets, they could have been fleeced like the RG3 trade. However, I don't think we are going to see trades like that in the future (it just takes one though). This is as good as it gets for the Colts.

 

Could be. But in long term it's better to have the Jets feel they have given up a lot, but for a reason, instead of feeling they were robbed. Who knows when and what we will need to negotiate them next time, and who will be in the stronger position then.

 

In this case they wanted to get ahead of the Bills. The Jets knew that the Colts could've gotten more value from trading back with the Bills than from trading back with them. So, asking the same price from the Jets as we wouldve asked from the Bills feels just about right for me. It's a win for the Colts and overpaying for a reason for the Jets.

[P'Son]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

I hope you are right.

 

If Nelson is there at 6, I would not move back any further at that point. Like another poster said, moving back in the second then becomes an option. Broncos have then been to Josh Rosen, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield's Pro Days and Baker Mayfield apparently went up to Gary Kubiak and made sure to have a chat, I heard on Broncos sites. Broncos coaches were also running the Senior Bowl drills including the QB drills for Mayfield. 

 

Elway has had a habit of going for the physical attributes, that big tall guy who could get by with athleticism and not a high level of intellect and ability under pressure. He swung and missed with Osweiler and Lynch along those lines. He also witnessed the contrast with Peyton. Now, I feel he might take a different path and go Mayfield instead of Allen. That is what my gut tells me, if Elway does go the QB route.

 

Dang, I want Mayfield to be a Colt.

[BProland85]

5 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Broncos could mess it up because they got Case Keenum and might go for Nelson. It is very likely. Their OL was worse than ours, from the few times I saw them as the season went on.

 

I think it's pretty safe to say that one of either Nelson or Chubb will be available at 6 overall. I would be wiling to bet on that.

[Kyle]

19 hours ago, P'Son said:

 

Dang, I want Mayfield to be a Colt.

[B~Town]

22 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I agree.

 

Ballard does mention talks with other teams during the negotiation process with the Jets. I can only assume he was talking about Buffalo when he said that we wanted to stay in the top 10. 

 

 

Did I hear that right he assumes on 2nd rd pick next year will be in the top 50 ?

[BlueShoe]

32 minutes ago, B~Town said:

Did I hear that right he assumes on 2nd rd pick next year will be in the top 50 ?

 

He said 4 picks in the top 50 this year. I don’t think he was referring to next years picks being in the top 50.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

23 minutes ago, B~Town said:

Did I hear that right he assumes on 2nd rd pick next year will be in the top 50 ?

 

 

Just messin with ya.  He said our 4 picks this year would be in the top 50, and that next year we would have one 1 and two 2s.

 

But if he was referring to the Jets 2019 2nd rounder that we just acquired, there's no reason to assume it won't be in the top 50.  It is the Jets, after all...

 

[NorthernBlue]

Either way the colts are positioned very nicely for 6.

 

scenario 1:

Browns - QB

Giants - QB

Jets - QB 

Browns - Chubb/Barkley/Fitzp

Broncos - QB/ Nelson

 

Results in at least 2 of Chubb, Barkley, Minkah or Nelson being there at 6.

 

Scenario 2: 

Browns - QB

Giants - Barkley

Jets - QB

Browns - Chubb/Fitzpatrick

Broncos - QB/Nelson

 

If the 'worst case scenario ' of 3 of Barkley, Chubb, Fitz and Nelson being gone happens, one of them will still likely be there at 6, and if there's 2 QBs available, that pick again becomes worth a boatload for future trade downs.

[azcolt]

Could someone translate “draft power points” to something more concrete? For example, how many Starbucks Grande Fraps could you buy with 326 draft power points?

[BlueShoe]

11 hours ago, azcolt said:

Could someone translate “draft power points” to something more concrete? For example, how many Starbucks Grande Fraps could you buy with 326 draft power points?

 

Each pick has a value. The Draft Power is the combined value of each pick per team. 

 

326 Draft Value is equivalent to the 57th or 58th pick in the draft (second rounder). 

 

https://footballdungeon.com/news/2018-nfl-draft-order/

 

[Valpo2004]

On 3/18/2018 at 10:53 AM, B~Town said:

Did I hear that right he assumes on 2nd rd pick next year will be in the top 50 ?

 

While that may not been what he was referring to I don't think that is too unlikely.

 

Jets will either be going with Bridgewater, McCown, or breaking in a rookie QB on a roster that has quite a few needs.  

 

To be in the top 50 the Jets just have be in spot 18 or higher.  

 

Essentially the question is, with all of those things being true of the Jets, do you think they are likely to be an above average team next year or do you think they are likely to be an average or below average team?

 

The #18 team this year won 9 games.  Even if the Jets pick their QB well, winning 9 games, especially when they have to play the Pats twice a year is going to be tough. 

[aaron11]

11 hours ago, azcolt said:

Could someone translate “draft power points” to something more concrete? For example, how many Starbucks Grande Fraps could you buy with 326 draft power points?

those points will be meaningless soon.  if we get three guys on par with our last three second round picks then this trade gained us nothing special

 

we need a big hit on one of them