Warren Sharp: Some amazing statistics about the 2017 Colts and their 4th Q collapses

[neug3246]

2 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

Gosh, it is like they did it on purpose.
I am so PROUD of Chuck & Chud right now. A Great, subtle TANK?
I love where we are drafting. Well, except for that AWFUL win our last game.

Leave it to chuck to win a meaningless game that hurts our draft position 

[runthepost]

1 hour ago, The Peytonator said:

Man for as happy as most of us were to get rid of Pep, he was a damn genius compared to Chud. Not that I'm regretting him leaving, but wow was that a regression. 

I said he was better than Pep. But of course...

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, runthepost said:

I said he was better than Pep. But of course...

 

Would you rather eat dirt or drink mud?

 

[DougDew]

57 minutes ago, neug3246 said:

Hey these are grown men out there and we will continue to chop wood in the 4th quarter no matter if it works or not.

Sorry to bring this subject back, but this is why I sided with Grigson during the so-called Grigson meddling-gate.

 

If I was a GM that had Xs and Os knowledge and saw my offense play like this, I'd wonder why my HC wouldn't step in and do something.  As a former DC, wouldn't you advise your OC that the defense knows what's coming? RG couldn't have had much confidence in Chuck, yet also had no power to fire him.

 

Again, I'm assuming this predictability was evident before last season.  Same HC and same OC.

 

[Zoltan]

5 hours ago, stitches said:

 

 

Two things here: First, The fact that they didn't get analytics about there own tendencies is alarming and secondly That last part about having the third most leads at the start of the 4th quarter gives me hope for next season and better coaching.

[jshipp23]

20 minutes ago, Colton Stenger said:

Two things here: First, The fact that they didn't get analytics about there own tendencies is alarming and secondly That last part about having the third most leads at the start of the 4th quarter gives me hope for next season and better coaching.

Plenty of talent at 56th Street..Finally they got a guy to direct it..

[P'Son]

Just one man's opinion.

[ColtsBlueFL]

I see an additional problem.  This is supposed to be caught by the Quality Control Coach, and the OC / HC made aware of... in game!  Yet it happened every game where we led in Q4. All of them.  This tells me QC coach failed to find these 'tendencies' and alert the the coaches to 'mix it up',  or the OC /HC listened to the QC coach, and ignored the recommendations.  Either way,  it is bad, and evidence of a deeper systemic failure.

[RomanianColtsFan]

This is disheartening, especially when it is layed out like that.

[rockywoj]

I said it somewhere on these forums, in the middle of the season ... it was THE worst offensive game planning I have ever seen in my 51 years of watching the NFL. Opposing DCs must have been laughing.

 

I can’t wait to see how improved this offence will be under Reich!

[rockywoj]

5 hours ago, Trace Pyott said:

Wow!!!  This is absolutely maddening. How we didn't know that teams would do their due dilligance and scout our tendencies and basically be able to predict our offense in the 4th quarter better than mrs Cleo could have is beyond me and more than my simple human mind can comprehend. My main question is who gets the blame?  I'm not sure how much pagano meddled in the offensive game plan but I guess even if it was chuds fault pags should of told him to knock it off and be less predictable.  Running it 100% of the time in any formation is just inexcusable. My Daugther playing madden (she's 6) could call a better game and make it less predictable than that by randomly hitting buttons on the play selection screen and I'm not lying. Literally Chud pulling plays out of a hat would of been better and less predictable than this madness. Wow!!! Wow!!

Whose fault?  I am no coach, but the predictability was ridiculously obvious.  I bet that for the first 12 games, if Jack Doyle moved into the FB position it was a run 98% of the time.  I called it out repeatedly while watching games.  It was so maddening.

 

Anyway, to point ... obviously it falls on the OC, but given his utter fails, it then falls on the HC.  If I can see it, but a HC paid millions of dollars cannot, then there was a BIG issue.  Heck, if I was the team’s DC, I likely would have ventured over in game and asked what the fudge are you clowns doing with the offence?

 

Alas, that staff is, rightly, gone.  Clouds are clearing and I see blue sky!

[runthepost]

4 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Would you rather eat dirt or drink mud?

 

Drink mud because I can use it as mouthwash 

[neug3246]

3 hours ago, DougDew said:

Sorry to bring this subject back, but this is why I sided with Grigson during the so-called Grigson meddling-gate.

 

If I was a GM that had Xs and Os knowledge and saw my offense play like this, I'd wonder why my HC wouldn't step in and do something.  As a former DC, wouldn't you advise your OC that the defense knows what's coming? RG couldn't have had much confidence in Chuck, yet also had no power to fire him.

 

Again, I'm assuming this predictability was evident before last season.  Same HC and same OC.

 

this was meant to be more of a joke, personally I'm glade both of them are gone and they both had major faults. RG wasn't a good judge of talent and it has shown in his drafts, CP wasn't a good coach or developer of talent and it showed in the teams play. double edge sword with those two and it didn't end well for the colts

[Narcosys]

There's more stats needs here. He said if in 12/13 personnel on x down, we ran. Ok that's all fine and dandy, but how often were we in those groupings for each down. If we were in them less than we weren't, then predictability goes down. Only predictable when in that grouping, but doesn't state how often we use that grouping. 

 

Need to state it in a manner like:

 

64% 11 personnel on x down, 36% 12/13 personnel. Gives more context.

 

Furthermore, he contradicts himself. He first says we ran 34/40 times with 2 WR o the field for first and second downs. But the very next tweet says we ran 100% of the time with fewer than 3 WR on the field on early downs.... So which is it, 85% or 100%?

[Finball]

5 hours ago, Narcosys said:

Furthermore, he contradicts himself. He first says we ran 34/40 times with 2 WR o the field for first and second downs. But the very next tweet says we ran 100% of the time with fewer than 3 WR on the field on early downs.... So which is it, 85% or 100%?

 

First tweet refers to 1-score game.. in this case, tied or trailing. The next tweet when we had the lead.

 

Warren Sharp‏Verified account @SharpFootball 19h19 hours ago

Combining 1st & 2nd down in the 4th quarter, in a one-score game, the Colts ran the ball on 34 of 40 (85%) plays with 2 or fewer WRs. They avg'd just 2.0 YPC and a 29% success rate. The only passes IND threw here was when the game was tied or trailing, never when leading.

 

Warren Sharp‏Verified account @SharpFootball 18h18 hours ago

In the 4Q when playing with a lead, the Colts were the only team in the NFL to NEVER pass unless they had 3 WRs on the field on early downs. If they had a lead & anything less than 3 WRs on the field, they ran 100% of the time. They avg'd 2.1 YPC. There was ZERO threat to pass.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

Wait... you're tellin me that in 2017, the only 2 teams to have a lead going into the 4th more often than the Colts were the 2 teams that made it to the SB... ?

 

Ok, so... I thought this team was so devoid of talent that we needed to replace most of the roster? ... Yet, if not for poor 4th-quarter-coaching, we might have been one of the "best" teams in the league? 

 

Are the Colts just now figuring this out?  Geez, we coulda kept Pagano for "Quarters 1-3 HC", and just have someone else be the "4th Quarter HC"...  like ME!!!  "Just get me to the 4th with a lead Chuck, Luck and I will handle it from there."  Then we coulda had Brissett as the "Quarters 1-3 QB", and then have Luck come in as the designated "4th-Quarter-Closer" when the pass-rushers are running out of gas anyway.  Fish in a barrel!!!

 

[Lucky Colts Fan]

This reminds me of that speech I see Pete Carroll give his teams:

 

"Can you win the game in the 1st quarter?  NO!

Can you win the game in the 2nd quarter?  NO!

Can you win the game in the 3rd quarter?  NO!

Can you win the game in the 4th quarter?!?  YEAAAHH!  WOOO!"

 

The 2017 Colts show that, conversely, you can definitely lose the game in the 4th quarter as well.

 

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

14 hours ago, ReMeDy said:

Hey guys, I've got a crazy idea. Why don't we... throw a screen!? Crazy, I know!

We tried to throw screen passes we were just terrible at it!

[CamMo]

39 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

Wait... you're tellin me that in 2017, the only 2 teams to have a lead going into the 4th more often than the Colts were the 2 teams that made it to the SB... ?

 

 

This is the point that really got me too. 

 

After reading that entire string of tweets and trying to grasp what they really meant, this is the one that made me want to throw up. 

 

Our team seemed very predictable, but seeing the actual predictability quanitfied makes me upset. I hope Chud gets to see these somehow. 

[imacoltfan]

And left unsaid is the direct negative impact this had on the defense and why they wore down in the 4th quarter. Watching the offense go 3 and out and having to go back on the field game after game had to be miserable.

[Coltsfanforlife12]

I just vomited reading this... as a former football player that’s inexcusable...

[TdungyW/12]

Our def when we draft Chubb will benefit from this. 

 

[Malakai432]

Clearly just by watching them they were ridiculously predictable.  I thought they have been for awhile now even with Luck. A change of sceanery will be a great thing.  

 

I don’t feel Reich’s offense will be even remotely as predictable, from a pure speculation standpoint at least  .  

[Douzer]

This confirms my game day rants. Rob Chudzinski sucked as a play caller. Pagano deserved to be fired just for the hiring Chudzinski and Pep Hamilton. 

[VaAllDay757]

I'm not surprised by this....the colts been doing this since arians left predictable playcalling and especially on defense too but hopefully all that will change

[Luca_Colts]

On 2/22/2018 at 4:28 PM, The Peytonator said:

Pagano was a 1980's coach trying to lead a team in 2017. Him being replaced with a more creative offensive mind is really going to show that this team is not as bad as the record indicated. Add in a healthy Luck and I truly believe we have a shot at the AFC. Our offensive ineptitude, largely due to play calling, really hampered our tired out defense as well. Our first half defense was always seemingly pretty solid. Then when the offense goes ultra conservative and we have three-and-out after three-and-out, they'd start breaking down too. It was a domino effect from poor decisions made by the guys at the top. 

100% agree with you, I believe our defense is extremely underrated, most games we had an early and our defense was solid even against good offenses, however on the second half, it was pathetic same calls over and over no changes even in thirds & long, that always gave momentum to the opposite team, making our defense look bad, I believe if we invest in O-Line in FA and Defense in draft in 1-2 years we can be a playoff team again.

[TrueBlue12]

On 2/22/2018 at 6:29 PM, 21isSuperman said:

I wouldn't even say he was a good defensive coordinator.  He was just in the right place at the right time by being in Baltimore during the Ray Lewis years.  The defense we had here under his watch was awful

He was only the coordinator for one year, had great personnel and it was keep chopping the same wood the same way.

[TrueBlue12]

On 2/22/2018 at 7:58 PM, neug3246 said:

Leave it to chuck to win a meaningless game that hurts our draft position 

He wanted a going away present for himself....sarcasm

[chrisfarley]

[BlueShoe]

On 2/22/2018 at 3:00 PM, chad72 said:

It is like a post mortem report for our dead offense. 

 

The autopsy has been performed, but we already knew the cause. We were all saying the same things that the stats show, and we said it while it was happening. 

[NDcolt]

Every wk, I would say just watch these horrible Colts will dominate the first half to only come out with a diff plan in the 2nd half.  At first, I thought no it’s just were a bad team but after 8 wks & statistics to back it up I knew personally what was going on.  Didn’t agree at first but when the reg season ended seen I gave my best Patriot grin, play the system.   Go COLTS

[LJpalmbeacher2]

On 2/23/2018 at 3:51 AM, Narcosys said:

There's more stats needs here. He said if in 12/13 personnel on x down, we ran. Ok that's all fine and dandy, but how often were we in those groupings for each down. If we were in them less than we weren't, then predictability goes down. Only predictable when in that grouping, but doesn't state how often we use that grouping. 

 

Need to state it in a manner like:

 

64% 11 personnel on x down, 36% 12/13 personnel. Gives more context.

 

Furthermore, he contradicts himself. He first says we ran 34/40 times with 2 WR o the field for first and second downs. But the very next tweet says we ran 100% of the time with fewer than 3 WR on the field on early downs.... So which is it, 85% or 100%?

 

I'm not sure you could handle more stats.....just saying

[lollygagger8]

[Narcosys]

6 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

I'm not sure you could handle more stats.....just saying

 

You're a troll and you're ignored.

[Scott Pennock]

Here you go NDColt....revived frim the dead just for you!