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Warren Sharp: Some amazing statistics about the 2017 Colts and their 4th Q collapses


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Warren Sharp is currently posting some disgusting stats on the Colts 2017 season that perfectly explain how we lost so many 4th quarter leads. Those include personnel groupings, personnel on the field, playcalling etc. Some of those are jawdropping. Here's the start of the thread, I recommend you go and read all of them:

 

 

I will be posting some of the more eye-popping stats here:

 

 

 

 

 

^This is amazing! EVERY SINGLE TIME we lined up with less than 3 WRs we ran the ball. EVERY SINGLE ONE!! This is the no-surprise predictable offense we fielded last year! A team could probably guess what we are doing just by the personnel we had out there. 

 

 

 

Here's some more predictable behaviors by our playcallers:

 

 

INSANE! 100% run again with less than 3WRs. This is actually infuriating to read! I knew we were predictable watching the games, but I didn't know we were THIS predictable.

 

 

:angry:

 

 

:angry: :angry: :angry: 

 

 

:angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: 

 

 

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Wow. That's actually gross.

 

I understand with a new QB who had just come in, they had to simplify the offense. But jeez I didn't realize it was that bad.

 

I expected vanilla offense when Brissett first got here. But I thought that eventually they'd transition into more diverse looks and concepts as he got comfortable. It just seems like they kept that vanilla scheme and conservative style throughout the whole season. 

 

Oh well. Moot point now. But still mind boggling. For such a bad team, the 4-12 Colts could have been so much better.

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3 minutes ago, dw49 said:

Brissett did make some boneheaded plays throughout the year. What's above is more that issue than lack of imagination in the game plan. They just plain and simply did not trust him.

when an offense is that predictable, it is more than just lacking trust in your QB. You can run out of many formations and personnel combinations. When you telegraph so heavily that you are looking at run vs. pass or vice versa, the defense can adjust personnel, shoot gaps, etc.  It's really a problem.

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Absolute incompetence last year, high school level coaching..None of those coaches should ever find NFL employment again...How Irsay didn't see how terrible Pagano was and fire him 3 years ago I don't understand...I guess he felt sorry for him is only explanation..

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2 minutes ago, A8bil said:

when an offense is that predictable, it is more than just lacking trust in your QB. You can run out of many formations and personnel combinations. When you telegraph so heavily that you are looking at run vs. pass or vice versa, the defense can adjust personnel, shoot gaps, etc.  It's really a problem.

 

good point

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Pagano was a 1980's coach trying to lead a team in 2017. Him being replaced with a more creative offensive mind is really going to show that this team is not as bad as the record indicated. Add in a healthy Luck and I truly believe we have a shot at the AFC. Our offensive ineptitude, largely due to play calling, really hampered our tired out defense as well. Our first half defense was always seemingly pretty solid. Then when the offense goes ultra conservative and we have three-and-out after three-and-out, they'd start breaking down too. It was a domino effect from poor decisions made by the guys at the top. 

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17 minutes ago, The Peytonator said:

Pagano was a 1980's coach trying to lead a team in 2017. Him being replaced with a more creative offensive mind is really going to show that this team is not as bad as the record indicated. Add in a healthy Luck and I truly believe we have a shot at the AFC. Our offensive ineptitude, largely due to play calling, really hampered our tired out defense as well. Our first half defense was always seemingly pretty solid. Then when the offense goes ultra conservative and we have three-and-out after three-and-out, they'd start breaking down too. It was a domino effect from poor decisions made by the guys at the top. 

Well said...

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11 minutes ago, Horse Shoe Heaven said:

These are the numbers I am sure, but they are skewed due to the fact A we had a QB who was essentially a rookie who didn't know the playbook, & B a real cruddy defense. The staff was trying to burn clock, & run the ball like Riech has talked about. Impose our will on them. It didn't work they were to conservative. 

 

We went conservative. why go away from the plays that were working and got you the 4th quarter lead to began with.

 

"The Colts were extremely successful when passing using 2 or fewer WRs with a lead in the first 3 quarters, recording an incredibly strong 58% success rate on those passes.  That rate was 8% better than the NFL average."

 

I don't think it has anything to do with Brissett rather just Conservative play calling. We were calling plays to try not to lose, rather than calling plays to win.

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15 minutes ago, Horse Shoe Heaven said:

These are the numbers I am sure, but they are skewed due to the fact A we had a QB who was essentially a rookie who didn't know the playbook, & B a real cruddy defense. The staff was trying to burn clock, & run the ball like Riech has talked about. Impose our will on them. It didn't work they were to conservative. 

Agree in large part. We CLEARLY didn't trust our qb and OL to protect him so we played it way to close to the vest. This is why most teams employ analytics to help the team (not that we didn't I don't know). We clearly were not aggressive enough and that is largely a reflection of the HC. Pagano doesn't call plays but clearly his leadership filters down to every aspect of the organization....heck its why even when we try a fake punt or that crazy punt return pass against SF we don't execute very well. It is just so out of character for the team they clearly aren't comfortable in those situations. Heck...we never even run a reverse let alone do anything out of the norm. I know I was on the game day threads many times and people were posting here comes another first down run etc...if we knew it was coming you can be sure the opponent did too.

 

I will throw this caveat out there.....it was likely some poor play calling obviously...but perhaps it was just some brilliant tanking without people knowing! If it wasn't for the staff all losing their job one might think they were purposely tipping their hand to lose but do it without alerting anyone it was purposely lol.

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I didn’t know it was this bad. But it goes to show that even with all the injuries across this team, we were able to get and hold leads (to an extent). The coaching incompetence is truly amazing and the fact that we became that predictable would allow anyone to tee off against us. 

 

I fully expect this offense to do a 180 for next season. 

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This is exactly the stuff that Tony Romo was talking about during games. Teams study these tendencies to gain knowledge of what defenses teams run on certain downs and distances...what plays they like to run...percentages of runs vs pass in redzone etc etc. He also said why Patriots are so great is because Bill knows teams look at the numbers and will purposely line up differently sometimes then they would normally if the score wasn't a factor just to skew the numbers. Next level thinking right there. Clearly the Colts had to have these numbers...obviously didn't matter and maybe they still thought running with Gore mostly was the best chance to win after watching Brissett throw some late ints.

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9 minutes ago, Reidm said:

 

We went conservative. why go away from the plays that were working and got you the 4th quarter lead to began with.

 

"The Colts were extremely successful when passing using 2 or fewer WRs with a lead in the first 3 quarters, recording an incredibly strong 58% success rate on those passes.  That rate was 8% better than the NFL average."

 

I don't think it has anything to do with Brissett rather just Conservative play calling. We were calling plays to try not to lose, rather than calling plays to win.

Your right, but they didn't trust Brissett! Also Pagano wanted and always stated that he wanted a smash mouth type of team. Whats more smash mouth than running down the other teams throat, when you have the lead and they know its coming! Problem the Colts weren't good enough to do it & close games out like that and its hard to do this is the NFL.

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Just now, 21isSuperman said:

He was just that bad of a coach

 

 

as much as I hate to agree with you on this, you're right. He was just not cut out to be a head coach. really good defensive coordinator, but even defensively he failed to turn the colts defense around. I was hoping it would have been the strength of the team. 

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1 hour ago, jshipp23 said:

Absolute incompetence last year, high school level coaching..None of those coaches should ever find NFL employment again...How Irsay didn't see how terrible Pagano was and fire him 3 years ago I don't understand...I guess he felt sorry for him is only explanation..

I actually thought Chud should have been the first to go a couple years ago. Pags a close second.

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43 minutes ago, Deadpool said:

 

 

as much as I hate to agree with you on this, you're right. He was just not cut out to be a head coach. really good defensive coordinator, but even defensively he failed to turn the colts defense around. I was hoping it would have been the strength of the team. 

I wouldn't even say he was a good defensive coordinator.  He was just in the right place at the right time by being in Baltimore during the Ray Lewis years.  The defense we had here under his watch was awful

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1 hour ago, Reidm said:

I don't think it has anything to do with Brissett rather just Conservative play calling. We were calling plays to try not to lose, rather than calling plays to win.

 

A huge part of the overall conservative play calling was Brissett, and that's understandable, to a degree.

 

But you can rein in the QB without being completely predictable. Just because you want to pass doesn't mean you have to use a 3WR set, for instance. Why not play action out of your 12 personnel? 

 

This emphasizes to me that -- despite how bad we were last year, and despite the injuries, and the patchwork roster, and the awful defense -- with better coaching on the offensive side, we could have been a .500 team, without Andrew Luck. And in 2016, we could have won another 3-4 games. 

 

The roster still needs a lot of work, and while everyone seems encouraged by Frank Reich, we don't know what we have in a coaching staff (still don't know the whole coaching staff). But if he manages to do half of what he's talked about so far, just on offense, this team will be much better off. Everyone is so doom and gloom, but I think a few common sense improvements will make a huge different right away.

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Wow!!!  This is absolutely maddening. How we didn't know that teams would do their due dilligance and scout our tendencies and basically be able to predict our offense in the 4th quarter better than mrs Cleo could have is beyond me and more than my simple human mind can comprehend. My main question is who gets the blame?  I'm not sure how much pagano meddled in the offensive game plan but I guess even if it was chuds fault pags should of told him to knock it off and be less predictable.  Running it 100% of the time in any formation is just inexcusable. My Daugther playing madden (she's 6) could call a better game and make it less predictable than that by randomly hitting buttons on the play selection screen and I'm not lying. Literally Chud pulling plays out of a hat would of been better and less predictable than this madness. Wow!!! Wow!!

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The last team that succeeded with so little imagination on offense was the 83 Redskins with the Hogs and Riggins.  YOu have to be able to impose your will on a defense to be able to succeed telegraphing your plays...it's not a winning formula in today's NFL. 

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Bruce Arians, sometimes, there was no method to his madness. He would just run 10 times in a row for no reason, all the plays would go through his RB, I don't blame him when David Johnson was healthy. But then, it could be 10 passes in a row. He was like a mad scientist out there sometimes.

 

We don't necessarily need mad scientist stuff but we don't need ultra-predictable either, just a sprinkle of some mad scientist with the average in the middle with regards to predictability, would prop our win column up, no doubt. :) 

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4 hours ago, A8bil said:

when an offense is that predictable, it is more than just lacking trust in your QB. You can run out of many formations and personnel combinations. When you telegraph so heavily that you are looking at run vs. pass or vice versa, the defense can adjust personnel, shoot gaps, etc.  It's really a problem.

I'd wager that this level of predictability went back farther than last year.  This can't be explained by using a term that embeds a certain level of competence like "lack of innovation" . 

 

What we're talking about is a lack of professional-level awareness.

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12 minutes ago, BOTT said:

Chuck probably looks at those numbers and got "Chuck face".....total confusion.  This guy and all his fancy learnin'.

Hey these are grown men out there and we will continue to chop wood in the 4th quarter no matter if it works or not.

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