The benefits of drafting Quenton Nelson

[boo2202]

Just thinking about some positives about drafting Nelson in the 1st would have for us

 

1. We wouldn't have to be a part of the bidding war for Norwell. There's 7-8 teams that will be trying to land him. I expect him to get 14-15 mil per year. So drafting Nelson would save us a lot of money while we have him 4 years on his rookie deal. That would allow us to use that 14mil in other areas in FA. Still pickup another guard (Fulton) , allows us to pickup some needed linebackers (hitchens), resigning Melvin easier, and using the big chunk we save for adding one stud ( Robinson or whoever Ballard sees).

 

2. We can probably make a slight trade down to get him ( jets at 5 preferably) which say would add a 2nd and 3rd. That would allow us to add more talent at other positions. Having two 2nds in the top end of the second round and third round is a nice thing to have. We can attack many different areas of weakness.

 

3. In my mind and many others your getting the best player in the draft at an area of need. I think there's no bust potential with Nelson. He's a day one starter with a super high ceiling. Others might be productive but when drafting Nelson, you know what your getting.

 

I believe Nelson will be at the top of many draft boards but teams will shy away from him because of the position he plays. I don't think we should be one of those teams. 

 

just my thoughts

[Valpo2004]

A slight trade down and drafting Nelson is honestly what I'm hoping the Colts do.  

[DaColts85]

4 minutes ago, boo2202 said:

1. We wouldn't have to be a part of the bidding war for Norwell. There's 7-8 teams that will be trying to land him. I expect him to get 14-15 mil per year. So drafting Nelson would save us a lot of money while we have him 4 years on his rookie deal. That would allow us to use that 14mil in other areas in FA. Still pickup another guard (Fulton) , allows us to pickup some needed linebackers (hitchens), resigning Melvin easier, and using the big chunk we save for adding one stud ( Robinson or whoever Ballard sees).

This would not be possible.  The draft is a month after the start of Free Agency.  Norwell will more than likely be signed within the first 3 days on FA.  We will likely have had a majority of the Free Agency signings done going into the draft. 

 

I am hoping that right away Ballard signs Fulton and Hurst.  While every team is fixated on Norwell we grab these two for way better deals (money wise).  Then we can go after some other guys like you mentioned, Hitchens, and maybe a WR and others.  This allows the draft to start with us grabbing a BPA type player if we trade down or not.

[stitches]

Are we sure 15M of capspace money is harder resource to come by than a no. 3 pick? Because I might be more willing to give Norwell 15M and use the top 3 pick on a more valuable position where the top talent never hits free agency... unlike guards who are available on the market every year, sometime multiple of them. 

[DraftMaster]

If we don't land Norwell or someone else who would be a starter day 1 in FA, then I say we go trade-back for Nelson.

[boo2202]

It would be possible if you go into FA knowing that your probally not going to get norwell. You make a quick call to norwell's agent then move onto plan B. The money has to be spent. That would lead us to Fulton and  others

[BProland85]

I think there are more potential rising players at pass rush on this team as opposed to OL-men. With switching to a 4-3, I believe Basham will be better in his natural position, and Sheard is a good starter. I would expect Ballard will add pass rush somewhere, either in the draft, or free agency. 

 

The way I view Quenton Nelson is I fully believe he is the most sure thing in this draft, and a future All-Pro OG, possibly immediately. He would dramatically change the perception of this OL, adding some nasty mentality which would rub off of all the other OL-men on this team. He would make Costanzo and Kelly MUCH better considering he'd be playing next to them. Not to mention he would help keep our QB upright, and open big holes for Mack and whoever else we bring in at RB.  

[Andrew Luck fan club]

A guard is not going top 5. 

[Defjamz26]

The only way they should trade down and get him is if Chubb and Barkley come off the board before our pick.

[Valpo2004]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

Are we sure 15M of capspace money is harder resource to come by than a no. 3 pick? Because I might be more willing to give Norwell 15M and use the top 3 pick on a more valuable position where the top talent never hits free agency... unlike guards who are available on the market every year, sometime multiple of them. 

 

The point is with this idea you can trade down and pick up at least another 2nd round pick and get Nelson.

 

And honestly looking at the board there doesn't seem to be a lot there that's worth a top 5 pick.

 

You have

 

1. Barkley who is an RB.  RB's get hurt often, have short careers, get paid very little in FA (Leonard Fournette is a top 5 back in pay despite being on a rookie contract.) and there are a lot of good RB's available.  So I just don't believe in drafting him.  

 

2. Chubb whom I would draft if we had to stay at 3 but he's considered to just be a good pass rusher and not really "special"

 

3. QB's who we don't need unless Luck isn't comming back.  I believe he is.

 

4. Fitzpatrick who while listed as a CB/S projects better as a safety.  And we already have 3 pretty good safeties.  

 

Now I would say a lot of good guards hit the market on a regular basis, but not really pro-bowl ones.  Not very often anyways.  On top of that the drafting of Nelson is predicated on a trade down which nets us an extra 2nd rounder minimum.

 

To me this seems like the best option simply because there just doesn't seem to be a special player at the top except maybe at RB which I have a long list of reasons why I don't believe in drafting one in the first round.  

[stitches]

2 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

The point is with this idea you can trade down and pick up at least another 2nd round pick and get Nelson.

 

And honestly looking at the board there doesn't seem to be a lot there that's worth a top 5 pick.

 

You have

 

1. Barkley who is an RB.  RB's get hurt often, have short careers, get paid very little in FA (Leonard Fournette is a top 5 back in pay despite being on a rookie contract.) and there are a lot of good RB's available.  So I just don't believe in drafting him.  

 

2. Chubb whom I would draft if we had to stay at 3 but he's considered to just be a good pass rusher and not really "special"

 

3. QB's who we don't need unless Luck isn't comming back.  I believe he is.

 

4. Fitzpatrick who while listed as a CB/S projects better as a safety.  And we already have 3 pretty good safeties.  

 

Now I would say a lot of good guards hit the market on a regular basis, but not really pro-bowl ones.  Not very often anyways.  On top of that the drafting of Nelson is predicated on a trade down which nets us an extra 2nd rounder minimum.

 

To me this seems like the best option simply because there just doesn't seem to be a special player at the top except maybe at RB which I have a long list of reasons why I don't believe in drafting one in the first round.  

It's harder to find a pretty good pass-rusher on the free market than it is to find a pro-bowler guard. As we can see this year by the fact that Norwell will be available in FA, while no pass-rusher that can be called pretty good will likely hit FA. It's very possible Chubb will give us better value even if he turns out to be just a "pretty good passrusher" and not a special one than Nelson would if he turns into a special one. 

 

The point that the other players that are ranked high are not in a particularly high valued positions(or QB which we don't need) is fair, though. That's why I don't want to draft Barkley this high either. IMO Fitzpatrick should play outside corner until he proves he can't cut it there. There is no way I'm drafting Minkah and not putting him at the outside CB day 1. IMO people will be shocked when he tests in Indy next week. He will turn some heads for the size of a player he is. I've been a bit up and down on him, but I'm currently flying pretty high on him. I actually think he can play outside corner. 

 

Tremaine Edmunds and Roquan Smith are other two options, the LB position is another one that is not very highly valued in the league, so your point still stands for them. 

 

I guess... my point is - you have to really not like any of the OTs, Minkah or Chubb to justify drafting Nelson or Barkley. At least that's my opinion. 

 

[NewEra]

I'm on the Nelson bandwagone 

[Valpo2004]

40 minutes ago, stitches said:

It's harder to find a pretty good pass-rusher on the free market than it is to find a pro-bowler guard. As we can see this year by the fact that Norwell will be available in FA, while no pass-rusher that can be called pretty good will likely hit FA. It's very possible Chubb will give us better value even if he turns out to be just a "pretty good passrusher" and not a special one than Nelson would if he turns into a special one. 

 

The point that the other players that are ranked high are not in a particularly high valued positions(or QB which we don't need) is fair, though. That's why I don't want to draft Barkley this high either. IMO Fitzpatrick should play outside corner until he proves he can't cut it there. There is no way I'm drafting Minkah and not putting him at the outside CB day 1. IMO people will be shocked when he tests in Indy next week. He will turn some heads for the size of a player he is. I've been a bit up and down on him, but I'm currently flying pretty high on him. I actually think he can play outside corner. 

 

Tremaine Edmunds and Roquan Smith are other two options, the LB position is another one that is not very highly valued in the league, so your point still stands for them. 

 

I guess... my point is - you have to really not like any of the OTs, Minkah or Chubb to justify drafting Nelson or Barkley. At least that's my opinion. 

 

 

I don't think any of the OT's are talented enough to go in the top 5.  Minkah to me seems like he projects as a safety and we have no need for a safety, would be happy to land a shutdown corner though.

 

Your point about Chubb is worthwhile.  Although several teams seem to find ways of putting pressure on QB's without top end pass rushers.  So I am sort of interested in what they do.  

[PeterBowman]

why not sign Norwell AND draft Nelson?

[boo2202]

I just think this is the best plan to have. Odds are we're not getting norwell and I'm tired of plugging in guys on the oline hoping they develop. As one the posters said it the best "Nelson will make so many different areas better. He will make kelly better as well as AC. Also Mack and whatever other RB we bring he'll create holes to run through. Who ever is taking snaps won't have to worry about pressure up the middle. Just watch his tape vs Georgia he's a monster. If Reich runs similar offense that he was under in philly, Nelson will be even more worthy of a top 5 or 6 imo. He can pull and is quick on he's feet for a guy 6'5 340lbs. Can you say the same about any other player we can get at 3 or 5? The extra draft picks can be used to fill defense. This is a deep draft for LB's. Pass rushers can be had in the 2nd - 3rd rounds. Lawerence was a thrid rounder if I remember correctly. Ballard needs to hit on as many picks as he can. Nelson is a hit at a need position that will upgrade the whole offense. 

[El Potro]

Quenton Nelson looks amazing, but I'm just a bit concerned with his weight right now. Notre Dame has him listed at 330lbs, I hope that's a bit inflated. Reason I bring this up is the top of the line guards in the NFL average around 10-15lbs lighter. Trai Turner - 320, Zack Martin - 309, Marshall Yanda - 315, La'el Collins - 322, Richie Ingonito - 320 & even going back to a potential H.O.F. guard in Steve Hutchinson - 313. Heck our best guard the last few years has been Jack Mewhort - 305. When we drafted an over weight offensive lineman last year in Zach Banner - 344 that didn't even make the team. Granted he was a giant at 6'9, but he was even lined up at guard and that didn't work. So I'm just a bit skeptical right now. 

[BOTT]

Who cares about saving money? The colts are lean on talent and have money to spend.

[jshipp23]

6 hours ago, Luckuania said:

Quenton Nelson looks amazing, but I'm just a bit concerned with his weight right now. Notre Dame has him listed at 330lbs, I hope that's a bit inflated. Reason I bring this up is the top of the line guards in the NFL average around 10-15lbs lighter. Trai Turner - 320, Zack Martin - 309, Marshall Yanda - 315, La'el Collins - 322, Richie Ingonito - 320 & even going back to a potential H.O.F. guard in Steve Hutchinson - 313. Heck our best guard the last few years has been Jack Mewhort - 305. When we drafted an over weight offensive lineman last year in Zach Banner - 344 that didn't even make the team. Granted he was a giant at 6'9, but he was even lined up at guard and that didn't work. So I'm just a bit skeptical right now. 

Could just move Kelly to Guard and use Bond at Center.. I think he looked decent when he played, or get a guy like Billy Price in 3rd round without wasting a top 3 pick on a Guard..

[RealityIsLuck]

I'm not trying to take Nelson unless Chubb and Barkley are off the board. And even at that point I'd have him in strict competition with Minkah Fitzpatrick and Tremaine Edmunds. 

 

My best case Nelson scenario would be:

- Trade back with Jets to 6 (acquire 2 2nds)

- Trade back with 9ers/Raiders to 10 (acquire a 2nd and a 3rd)

 

At 10 take Nelson, then draft well with our now 4 2nds and 2 3rds. 

 

1 Browns - Barkley 

2 Giants - Rosen

3 Jets - Darnold

4 Browns - Allen

5 Broncos - Mayfield 

6 49ers - Fitzpatrick

7 Bucs - Chubb

8 Bears - Ridley

9 Raiders - Edmunds

10 Colts - Nelson

[Superman]

55 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

Could just move Kelly to Guard and use Bond at Center.. I think he looked decent when he played, or get a guy

like Billy Price in 3rd round without wasting a top 3 pick on a Guard..

 

Billy Price is more likely to go in the first than in the third, IMO.

[hoosierhawk]

Nelson is the most sure thing in this draft and is in an area of most need for the Colts. We need many players to upgrade this team and to get possible a lower first ( Nelson ) and a couple 2nds would be a coup. You could be talking three impact players vs 1.

[Maniac]

1 hour ago, RealityIsLuck said:

I'm not trying to take Nelson unless Chubb and Barkley are off the board. And even at that point I'd have him in strict competition with Minkah Fitzpatrick and Tremaine Edmunds. 

 

My best case Nelson scenario would be:

- Trade back with Jets to 6 (acquire 2 2nds)

- Trade back with 9ers/Raiders to 10 (acquire a 2nd and a 3rd)

 

At 10 take Nelson, then draft well with our now 4 2nds and 2 3rds. 

 

1 Browns - Barkley 

2 Giants - Rosen

3 Jets - Darnold

4 Browns - Allen

5 Broncos - Mayfield 

6 49ers - Fitzpatrick

7 Bucs - Chubb

8 Bears - Ridley

9 Raiders - Edmunds

10 Colts - Nelson

 

I'm all for this.

 

Gotta consider if the Bears take Ridley and if the Broncos or Jets end up with Cousins.

[boo2202]

Price and Wynn are probally gone by the time we pick in the second. So if your going to invest in guards Ballard better find a way in rd 1. Add that to the possibility of being out bidded for Norwell and we enter training camp again hoping the oline gels with some of the same faces we had last year. Now if we sign Norwell all this changes. I just don't see it happening imo. I've been wrong many times before tho. Some will say well we can get Hernandez or Braden. Neither are the type of talent Nelson present. You would just be throwing names at the roster hoping something sticks. 

[NewColtsFan]

10 hours ago, Andrew Luck fan club said:

A guard is not going top 5. 

 

The OP said that...

 

Trade back and then take Nelson.    It's option number 2 on his list.

 

[jshipp23]

7 minutes ago, boo2202 said:

Price and Wynn are probally gone by the time we pick in the second. So if your going to invest in guards Ballard better find a way in rd 1. Add that to the possibility of being out bidded for Norwell and we enter training camp again hoping the oline gels with some of the same faces we had last year. Now if we sign Norwell all this changes. I just don't see it happening imo. I've been wrong many times before tho. Some will say well we can get Hernandez or Braden. Neither are the type of talent Nelson present. You would just be throwing names at the roster hoping something sticks. 

One of them will be there in 2nd...Hopefully we just solve that issue in free agency...Nelson is fine by me if we pickup two 2nds in trade back...If not, there will still be a good guard in 2nd or 3rd if we go that route...Historically speaking Guards never go top 5 for a reason...

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, RealityIsLuck said:

I'm not trying to take Nelson unless Chubb and Barkley are off the board. And even at that point I'd have him in strict competition with Minkah Fitzpatrick and Tremaine Edmunds. 

 

My best case Nelson scenario would be:

- Trade back with Jets to 6 (acquire 2 2nds)

- Trade back with 9ers/Raiders to 10 (acquire a 2nd and a 3rd)

 

At 10 take Nelson, then draft well with our now 4 2nds and 2 3rds. 

 

1 Browns - Barkley 

2 Giants - Rosen

3 Jets - Darnold

4 Browns - Allen

5 Broncos - Mayfield 

6 49ers - Fitzpatrick

7 Bucs - Chubb

8 Bears - Ridley

9 Raiders - Edmunds

10 Colts - Nelson

 

Don't be surprised if we trade back to 10 if Nelson is already taken by the time our pick comes up.    He might not go top-5, but he might go 6-9...    still before us in this scenario.

 

Things are going to get scrambled if a QB like Cousins lands in Denver or the Jets.    Then those teams are free are free to go in any direction other than QB.

 

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, jshipp23 said:

Could just move Kelly to Guard and use Bond at Center.. I think he looked decent when he played, or get a guy like Billy Price in 3rd round without wasting a top 3 pick on a Guard..

 

No.    

 

You think we spent a FIRST round pick on a center so we could move him to guard because Bond looked DECENT?!?

 

Why do you do this?   Besides Person graded out even better than Bond.

 

 

[jshipp23]

Guards usually get drafted in 1st much more than Centers...If we think we got a guy or draft a guy who is a good center but doesn't look good as a Guard we can move Kelly to Guard..I don't see why that would be an issue..Kelly looks like he could play Guard at a high level..Just an option I would think about..Not option 1 for me whatsoever...Price looks good , I didn't think he was a 1st rounder but guess I'm wrong...Ive seen him in 2nd and 3rd, but  he is moving up it looks like..

[jshipp23]

16 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

No.    

 

You think we spent a FIRST round pick on a center so we could move him to guard because Bind looked DECENT?!?

 

Why do you do this?   Besides Person graded out even better than Bond.

 

 

Bond looked good to me the little time he had, he held is own...

[NewColtsFan]

10 hours ago, stitches said:

It's harder to find a pretty good pass-rusher on the free market than it is to find a pro-bowler guard. As we can see this year by the fact that Norwell will be available in FA, while no pass-rusher that can be called pretty good will likely hit FA. It's very possible Chubb will give us better value even if he turns out to be just a "pretty good passrusher" and not a special one than Nelson would if he turns into a special one. 

 

The point that the other players that are ranked high are not in a particularly high valued positions(or QB which we don't need) is fair, though. That's why I don't want to draft Barkley this high either. IMO Fitzpatrick should play outside corner until he proves he can't cut it there. There is no way I'm drafting Minkah and not putting him at the outside CB day 1. IMO people will be shocked when he tests in Indy next week. He will turn some heads for the size of a player he is. I've been a bit up and down on him, but I'm currently flying pretty high on him. I actually think he can play outside corner. 

 

Tremaine Edmunds and Roquan Smith are other two options, the LB position is another one that is not very highly valued in the league, so your point still stands for them. 

 

I guess... my point is - you have to really not like any of the OTs, Minkah or Chubb to justify drafting Nelson or Barkley. At least that's my opinion. 

 

 

I guess one thing is...    how do you define "special" when it comes to pass rush.   Must everyone agrees he's not Garrett.  OK,  but even Garrett only had 5.5 sacks his rookie year.    Now I expect Garrett to be a double-digit sack guy for most of his career.

 

I don't see Chubb getting double digits his rookie year, but most of what I read is that he should be a double digit guy for most of his career.    But even if BC gets 10-12 per season and Garrett gets 12-15 is that really so bad?    I'm trying to post realistic numbers and not be overly optimistic.    Even if Chubb is an 8-10 sack guy, is that so terrible?

 

Because Chubb has graded out better against the run than the pass I see too many who are down grading him as a pass rusher...   almost as if it's a weakness.   (Not you, but others here)

 

I'm not sure Chubb will be there if we trade back...   this will be a fascinating first round.

[Goatface Killah]

We cant afford to play these games with the OL again. 

 

Take Nelson. He can help protect luck and improve our run blocking tremendously. Dont overthink it. And certainly dont go into next year with Bond starting. Please.

[Andrew Luck fan club]

40 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

The OP said that...

 

Trade back and then take Nelson.    It's option number 2 on his list.

 

He said trade back to 5( to the jets which is incorrect btw) I don’t see a guard going top 5 lol. 

[ty4atd]

54 minutes ago, boo2202 said:

Price and Wynn are probally gone by the time we pick in the second. So if your going to invest in guards Ballard better find a way in rd 1. Add that to the possibility of being out bidded for Norwell and we enter training camp again hoping the oline gels with some of the same faces we had last year. Now if we sign Norwell all this changes. I just don't see it happening imo. I've been wrong many times before tho. Some will say well we can get Hernandez or Braden. Neither are the type of talent Nelson present. You would just be throwing names at the roster hoping something sticks. 

Hernandez is the next best guard and only slightly worse than Nelson IMO and I don't see 4 Gs going in round 1 so we have a very good chance at at least one of them in round 2 and if by chance all of them are gone Williams or a stud defender will have to have fallen and we could happily snatch them up. 

[boo2202]

Yes my bad trading back to #5 would be with Denver. That's why I said maybe we get a extra 2nd and maybe 3rd. If it was a trade down with jets possibly we get 2 extra 2nds depending on who Browns and Giants take. If Browns go Barkley then giants grab darnold, who knows what the offers will be. There's been guards drafted inside the top 10 before. Cooper and warmack come to mind. Of course they didn't pan out very well. The DE that have been drafted in the top 5 over the past few years have been obvious choices. Garrett bosa clowney Miller and so on. Is Chubb in that elite class? Chubb had six games last year where he didn't record a sack. I know the box scores don't tell the whole story but you don't draft A DE with a 3rd pick in the draft because he's a good run stuffer or he "sets the edge". You draft them knowing that they'll be 12 sacks a year kind of player. 

[stitches]

6 hours ago, jshipp23 said:

Could just move Kelly to Guard and use Bond at Center.. I think he looked decent when he played, or get a guy like Billy Price in 3rd round without wasting a top 3 pick on a Guard..

Billy Price is likely going in round 1... or early round 2. IMO you have to take him round 2 if you want to take him. 

 

BTW Bond didn't look good IMO. Person looked better than him. 

[stitches]

4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I guess one thing is...    how do you define "special" when it comes to pass rush.   Must everyone agrees he's not Garrett.  OK,  but even Garrett only had 5.5 sacks his rookie year.    Now I expect Garrett to be a double-digit sack guy for most of his career.

 

I don't see Chubb getting double digits his rookie year, but most of what I read is that he should be a double digit guy for most of his career.    But even if BC gets 10-12 per season and Garrett gets 12-15 is that really so bad?    I'm trying to post realistic numbers and not be overly optimistic.    Even if Chubb is an 8-10 sack guy, is that so terrible?

 

Because Chubb has graded out better against the run than the pass I see too many who are down grading him as a pass rusher...   almost as if it's a weakness.   (Not you, but others here)

 

I'm not sure Chubb will be there if we trade back...   this will be a fascinating first round.

Yeah, I'm having hard time imagining what people think is special and what is pretty good. For example is Cam Jordan type of career special or "pretty good" or somewhere in between? Is Chubb worth a top 3 pick if he has a career like that for us? What about Olivier Vernon? 

 

Or do we need to go into the Von Miller/Khalil Mack range? If you expect any player you draft to be Von Miller/Mack range you are bound to be disappointed IMO. We need to have more reasonable expectations for whoever we draft. We want our guard to be Zach Martin, our RB to be LaDainian Tomlinson, our pass-rushers to be Von Miller and our 3-tech to be Aaron Donald. I mean... nothing bad in hoping but the realities are that the chance of any player we draft to be the very best at his position is not great. We should be expecting more reasonable outcomes for them and if they happen to surpass that, it's a bonus. 

[UKColt13]

I’d rather pay a proven top5 guard $13-14mil than use #3 on a Guard. I like Nelson and if we trade down then fair enough. But not at #3

[boo2202]

Enjoy the benefits colts colts. Nastiness has just entered Indy 

[Bruce MacGillivray]

Totally love the pick

[Peterk2011]

At the moment the best thing in drafting Nelson is that we will not need to draft OL in the second round. I expect a huge OL run in the second half of first round / second round which can result in some WR, CB, RB, LB to fall. And we can grab them there. (Either by trading back to the end of 1st or trading down a bit).