Be prepared to overpay for OL

[Crunked]

Watching the senior bowl this last week, and finally the game yesterday I was paying attention to O and D line play looking for guys I might want the Colts to target and it got me thinking about the recent dirth in talent in the O-Line dept. league wide lately. So I looked up team needs for all 32 teams. 24 of the 32 teams list O-line as a need in this off season, some teams needs obviously are greater than others, but still...most of the league needs something.

 

Then looking over the top 50 draft prospects, and its early I know, but only 8 players are graded in the top 50 for O-line right now.

 

Taking into account many teams finding good O-line play at the 'developmental level" or "diamond in the rough" level of the draft lately....I came to the conclusion, teams probably realize even if a guy is rated top 50 its far from a guarantee he will perform top 50 , at least more so than many positions in the draft. So if you are like the Colts and your need is larger than the average NFL team (IE you need more than one O-line guy to fix your problem, you are probably going to want to be a player in the FA market) of those 24 teams, 13 fit that category, and although none of us know precisely how many quality proven guys will hit the FA market, I think its safe to say the number will be around 5 or fewer. Out of those teams that have more than one need there is at least 10 teams that could be players.....so It tends to reason, a kings ransom MAY have to be paid to get your guy in FA.......the alternative is to dedicate a couple of draft picks to the problem, and hope your scouts are good enough to hit on them all, and be patient and hope Luck doesn't get killed again until they develop.

 

I want O-line as much as the next Colt fan, but there is a financial line in the sand where I don't want my top two cap eaters are QB and O-line......

 

For those who don't like to read: Synopsis

"There is more demand than supply."

[stitches]

I fully expect 5/60+ for Norwell. I'm not sure we will get a OT FA, though... There really isn't much quality OL this year in FA. We probably should have gone for some of the high end OLs available last year. 

[Crunked]

I would say you are about spot on with Norwell......I am torn, because I am in the camp sign O-line in FA draft skill positions in the draft (at least with the first few rounds) but I am worried if that thinking (the quicker fix theoretically) would hamstring the cap situation in a few years down the road......maybe this is a situation of moderation, sign a guy to big $ in FA, then get some FA filler after that, and draft developmental future starters and hope for the best.

[Dark Superman]

At this point, we need to do whatever it takes to bring lineman to Indy.

It's been six years since we drafted Luck and failed to protect him.

I don't care about price tags this offseason, Ballard needs to deliver.

[Andrew Luck fan club]

Just overpay Norwell. Have 80 million. 

[throwing BBZ]

3 hours ago, crunked said:

Watching the senior bowl this last week, and finally the game yesterday I was paying attention to O and D line play looking for guys I might want the Colts to target and it got me thinking about the recent dirth in talent in the O-Line dept. league wide lately. So I looked up team needs for all 32 teams. 24 of the 32 teams list O-line as a need in this off season, some teams needs obviously are greater than others, but still...most of the league needs something.

 

Then looking over the top 50 draft prospects, and its early I know, but only 8 players are graded in the top 50 for O-line right now.

 

Taking into account many teams finding good O-line play at the 'developmental level" or "diamond in the rough" level of the draft lately....I came to the conclusion, teams probably realize even if a guy is rated top 50 its far from a guarantee he will perform top 50 , at least more so than many positions in the draft. So if you are like the Colts and your need is larger than the average NFL team (IE you need more than one O-line guy to fix your problem, you are probably going to want to be a player in the FA market) of those 24 teams, 13 fit that category, and although none of us know precisely how many quality proven guys will hit the FA market, I think its safe to say the number will be around 5 or fewer. Out of those teams that have more than one need there is at least 10 teams that could be players.....so It tends to reason, a kings ransom MAY have to be paid to get your guy in FA.......the alternative is to dedicate a couple of draft picks to the problem, and hope your scouts are good enough to hit on them all, and be patient and hope Luck doesn't get killed again until they develop.

 

I want O-line as much as the next Colt fan, but there is a financial line in the sand where I don't want my top two cap eaters are QB and O-line......

 

For those who don't like to read: Synopsis

"There is more demand than supply."

 

 Thank goodness there will be several good guards available in the 3rd and 4th rd.

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, crunked said:

 

I want O-line as much as the next Colt fan, but there is a financial line in the sand where I don't want my top two cap eaters are QB and O-line......

 

For those who don't like to read: Synopsis

"There is more demand than supply."

 

Good thoughtful post.   Nicely done.   Much to agree with.   But, working from my phone I've deleted most of the post to focus on something you wrote that seemed....   curious?    Maybe you didn't mean to write this way?

 

You DON'T want your QB and OL to be your biggest cap eaters?     Huh?

 

You DON'T want Luck and Castanzo to be the top cap eaters? 

 

Aren't the QB and LT typically two of the top cap guys on most teams?

 

Now...   if you're trying to say there's a limit for what you're willing to spend on a guy like Norwell, that's another story.   If you don't want to make Norwell the highest paid guard that's another story.  

 

I'm just trying to make sure I understand your meaning.....

 

[Indy Fan]

A new OC will also help our o-line. A guard in the second or third (e.g. Will Hernandez, Isaiah Wynn) will be great value added to the line. There isn't any quality tackles in FA so that leaves you with the draft but are you willing to drop multiple picks on the o-line when our D needs some playmakers?

[SuperJoe33]

I'll give Andrew 5 years 42 million. I'd say that's pretty good money for a guard.

[esmort]

11 minutes ago, SuperJoe33 said:

I'll give Andrew 5 years 42 million. I'd say that's pretty good money for a guard.

 

5/42 won't get him... that number might be where bidding starts... I would be happy if we got him on a 5/60 contract. 

[Defjamz26]

Or if Barkley and Chubb are gone at our pick we could trade down for extra picks. Take Quenton Nelson in the first and Will Hernandez in the 2nd. FA isn’t the only way to add quality OL. 

[BProland85]

I’d look for Ballard to hopefully look at signing RT Cameron Fleming from NE and OG Zach Fulton from KC as reasonable contracts that aren’t too costly. 

[Crunked]

2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Good thoughtful post.   Nicely done.   Much to agree with.   But, working from my phone I've deleted most of the post to focus on something you wrote that seemed....   curious?    Maybe you didn't mean to write this way?

 

You DON'T want your QB and OL to be your biggest cap eaters?     Huh?

 

You DON'T want Luck and Castanzo to be the top cap eaters? 

 

Aren't the QB and LT typically two of the top cap guys on most teams?

 

Now...   if you're trying to say there's a limit for what you're willing to spend on a guy like Norwell, that's another story.   If you don't want to make Norwell the highest paid guard that's another story.  

 

I'm just trying to make sure I understand your meaning.....

 

I guess to clarify, I don't want to be on year 4 of the rebuild, one SB under our belt set to play in the 2nd one next week (insert optimism here) and looking at losing TY/Saquon Barkley/ and other stars or the right side of the offensive line....in an either or scenario.....I want it all, I want it now....and the line Freddy forgot, "at a perpetually cap friendly price"

 

Short read: I don't want to chose down the road between O-lineman vs. skill guy cause both have killer cap hits.

 

So I guess I am in the over pay for 1 guy (NORWELL IF YOU MUST) , fill in the rest of the O-line blanks as best as you can with reasonable FA, and mid round draft picks.....don't fill all the holes with checks you cant sign 2-3-4 years down the road...

[richard pallo]

I am ready to overpay for OL in FA.  We just have to find better players.  I am all in on Norwell.  Hopefully we get him.  But I think we need two regardless.  Norwell, Pugh, Hurst and Fulton.  Need to score two out of four IMO.  All of them are upgrades.  

[masnerj]

9 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Or if Barkley and Chubb are gone at our pick we could trade down for extra picks. Take Quenton Nelson in the first and Will Hernandez in the 2nd. FA isn’t the only way to add quality OL. 

 

I don't know how I feel about that. Asking two drafted OL to play above-average immediately no matter how high they were drafted is pretty unreasonable. Nelson will most likely easily start off as an above-average guard. But I don't know about Hernandez's ability to come in without any real struggles. 

 

The best case scenario is a we draft a high-upside guy in the first couple of rounds AND sign a guy like Norwell. Another option is, if we lose out on the Norwell bidding, then we sign a couple of veteran SOLID O-lineman from the FA  and then approach the draft with an intention to trade down and draft a guy like Nelson. 

 

Either way, we absolutely need to sign some veteran offensive lineman. One of Grigson's biggest mistakes are certainly that he realized too late that he needed to fix the O-Line. But an underrated mistake is his inability to fix it once he realized so. He tried to fix it by drafting a bunch of offensive lineman and hoping that they would come in and fix it right away without any developmental time, regardless of how high they were drafted. 

[Str8himalaya]

Norwell will help a lot with stabilizing the middle of our OL. I still think we have some decent depth if we are able to grab him and then draft/sign another G or RT. Then let the last position be a battle. We can't expect to have 5 pro bowl players on our OL. Kelly is pro bowl caliber when healthy and AC isn't nearly as bad as some people tend to think. I would even say sign Norwell (overpay if needed) and then bring back Mewhort if he is healthy and feeling better on a cheap deal. Then you maybe able to grab some mid round talent to for depth. Good, Haeg, and Bond are all decent depth, and I think Good could play well at RT with some decent support around him.

[The Peytonator]

I don’t have the time, energy, or care to look into this, but I am fairly certain every team that has a need at guard has Andrew Norwell being mocked to them by just about every single mock offseason their fans do. He will be one of the most sought after free agents of the class, and that’s if Carolina lets him leave, which I highly doubt. 

[Four2itus]

23 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Or if Barkley and Chubb are gone at our pick we could trade down for extra picks. Take Quenton Nelson in the first and Will Hernandez in the 2nd. FA isn’t the only way to add quality OL. 

I think there is likely a .01% chance that no QB will be taken in the first two picks. 

[Four2itus]

On 1/28/2018 at 6:21 AM, crunked said:

I want O-line as much as the next Colt fan, but there is a financial line in the sand where I don't want my top two cap eaters are QB and O-line......

For me, I hope that no position other than QB has one player with a contract in the stratosphere, that has not earned one for THIS team yet. 

 

I like it when guys bust their hind end and get huge contracts for what they have become along side of their fellow players. I cringe at contracts that are 2-3 times the value of the player/contract at the same position on the team, when they are not 2-3 times the player, and have not fought alongside these guys. It's that locker room message Mr. Ballard talks about. 

[Crunked]

3 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

For me, I hope that no position other than QB has one player with a contract in the stratosphere, that has not earned one for THIS team yet. 

 

I like it when guys bust their hind end and get huge contracts for what they have become along side of their fellow players. I cringe at contracts that are 2-3 times the value of the player/contract at the same position on the team, when they are not 2-3 times the player, and have not fought alongside these guys. It's that locker room message Mr. Ballard talks about. 

That is a very valid point about Ballard.....if we had an avg. guard (we don't ) he might make 3-4 mil a year, if we sign Norwell....he will command about 2.5 X 3 times more than that......it will be a good test of Ballard's resolve on his stance of locker room "message". If he truly believes that with conviction, we may never sniff Norwell, we will be signing journeymen O-Linemen........if his stance was a "just for instance" point with no substance, we will drop some coin on O-line....

[Dark Superman]

We have the money to spend and are also in a position to land some talented offensive lineman in the draft.

I'm pumped!

[Superman]

On 1/28/2018 at 12:18 PM, esmort said:

 

5/42 won't get him... that number might be where bidding starts... I would be happy if we got him on a 5/60 contract. 

 

The market for All Pro guards has been set at $12m/year. If you don't want to pay that for Norwell, don't waste your time submitting an offer. Might as well not even pick up the phone.

 

To paraphrase a line from Mr. and Mrs. Smith, 'he doesn't get out of bed for less than $60m.' 

 

My offer is five years, $65m. Just get it done.

[Superman]

28 minutes ago, crunked said:

That is a very valid point about Ballard.....if we had an avg. guard (we don't ) he might make 3-4 mil a year, if we sign Norwell....he will command about 2.5 X 3 times more than that......it will be a good test of Ballard's resolve on his stance of locker room "message". If he truly believes that with conviction, we may never sniff Norwell, we will be signing journeymen O-Linemen........if his stance was a "just for instance" point with no substance, we will drop some coin on O-line....

 

Ballard's point, as I took it, was that when you pay big money to bring a guy in, the locker room takes notice. If he's not a good locker room guy, if he's not a hard worker, doesn't take coaching, etc., the locker room knows. I got the impression that they won't go drop major money on a guy that they aren't convinced will fit their standard.

 

To me, Norwell is the prototype for a Ballard big money signing. UDFA, first year starter, hasn't missed a game in two years, earned and kept a starting spot, worked his way into an All Pro, clean off the field... 

 

First thing Ballard did in Indy is pay (slightly overpay, maybe?) Jack Doyle. Similar profile. 

 

When you pay a guy like that, it sends a message. 

[Crunked]

2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Ballard's point, as I took it, was that when you pay big money to bring a guy in, the locker room takes notice. If he's not a good locker room guy, if he's not a hard worker, doesn't take coaching, etc., the locker room knows. I got the impression that they won't go drop major money on a guy that they aren't convinced will fit their standard.

 

To me, Norwell is the prototype for a Ballard big money signing. UDFA, first year starter, hasn't missed a game in two years, earned and kept a starting spot, worked his way into an All Pro, clean off the field... 

 

First thing Ballard did in Indy is pay (slightly overpay, maybe?) Jack Doyle. Similar profile. 

 

When you pay a guy like that, it sends a message. 

You could be quite right, I look at the Doyle example a little different because he was already in house, but I see your point. I don't want to wander too far off the path with the thread though, so I don't know enough about Norwell off the field to know if he is a good locker room guy etc. I know he's a heckuva football player we could use though, and if he is a stand up guy in the locker room and off the field I am okay with over paying him, if we must (and based on league need, we must) . I just don't want to put a kings ransom into the offensive line (generally speaking) just for the sake of rebuilding the line. If we over pay for Norwell, then I would want work-man level FA's and mid round draft picks to fill out the O-line so that money and resources (picks in the draft) can be spent on filling some of the skill position holes we have.....Oiy, this roster is like sailing a hunk of swiss across the atlantic, nothing but icebergs and a lotta holes to fill lol.

 

[BPindy]

I am all for breaking the bank for Norwell (assuming the Panthers don't find a way to keep him), but he's the only one. A couple draft picks for the line, and then let McDaniels go to work constructing the quick-pass offense. We won't need to try and spend all of our resources on the o-line if the offense is actually tailored to take pressure off of them like it should.

[Superman]

1 minute ago, BPindy said:

We won't need to try and spend all of our resources on the o-line if the offense is actually tailored to take pressure off of them like it should.

 

Why not have a good OL and a good scheme?

 

Not to mention the importance of run blocking, especially in short yardage situations.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, crunked said:

You could be quite right, I look at the Doyle example a little different because he was already in house, but I see your point. I don't want to wander too far off the path with the thread though, so I don't know enough about Norwell off the field to know if he is a good locker room guy etc. I know he's a heckuva football player we could use though, and if he is a stand up guy in the locker room and off the field I am okay with over paying him, if we must (and based on league need, we must) . I just don't want to put a kings ransom into the offensive line (generally speaking) just for the sake of rebuilding the line. If we over pay for Norwell, then I would want work-man level FA's and mid round draft picks to fill out the O-line so that money and resources (picks in the draft) can be spent on filling some of the skill position holes we have.....Oiy, this roster is like sailing a hunk of swiss across the atlantic, nothing but icebergs and a lotta holes to fill lol.

 

 

Doyle being homegrown definitely makes him different, but I don't think I believe that Ballard will refuse to drop money on good free agents. 

 

The old adage is that anyone who hits free agency is flawed in one way or the other, but there's an exception to every rule. Norwell is the kind of guy a team should be excited to reward with a big contract, and the only reason he might hit free agency is because the Panthers just paid a different guard $11m/year. I think he fits the mold, top to bottom. JMO

 

As for the rest of the roster, Ballard has his work cut out for him. I've spent a year wanting Trumaine Johnson at basically whatever cost, and I think he fits the mold also, but I've decided I'd rather have Norwell, all things considered. I think we have more going on at CB than OL, and I think it's more important to drop coin on the OL right now and develop the young DBs we have.

 

I also think Melvin fits the 'pay that guy' mold -- similar to Jack Doyle -- and I see the Colts keeping him. 

 

Last thing, we can't fill all our holes in FA this year, even though we have $90m in cap space. Bottom line, we just have too many holes. I'd rather start as close to the ball as possible, improve the team up the middle on both sides of the ball, and see how that takes pressure off of the skill guys, especially on the perimeter.

[BPindy]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Why not have a good OL and a good scheme?

 

Not to mention the importance of run blocking, especially in short yardage situations.

 

Oh I'm all for both! I was mainly speaking to the people I've seen/talked to that think we need to spend all of our money and draft capital on the O-line. Like throw money at Norwell, Pugh, and spend 2 of our first 3 picks on it. Bringing in Norwell would be huge, and then with some decent upgrades this offense would thrive. Luck being back and with a better scheme will do just as much for running lanes as FA acquisitions will. 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, BPindy said:

 

Oh I'm all for both! I was mainly speaking to the people I've seen/talked to that think we need to spend all of our money and draft capital on the O-line. Like throw money at Norwell, Pugh, and spend 2 of our first 3 picks on it. Bringing in Norwell would be huge, and then with some decent upgrades this offense would thrive. Luck being back and with a better scheme will do just as much for running lanes as FA acquisitions will. 

 

Yeah, I'm with you there. But I do think we need three new starters, and I don't want to continue relying on Clark, Haeg, Vuj, Good in any meaningful capacity.

[BPindy]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

Yeah, I'm with you there. But I do think we need three new starters, and I don't want to continue relying on Clark, Haeg, Vuj, Good in any meaningful capacity.

 

We've suffered enough, I agree! If Vuj even makes the roster I'll be pretty disappointed. 

[Crunked]

I'm curious if Deshawn Bond can return to pre injury form and if he could be plugged in at L-or-RG. That could (if you buy into the Norwell signing)  Castano, Bond, Kelly Norwell, (player to be signed or drafted) ....Good, Haeg, Vuj, Clark as back ups......(draft /FA sign a player or two to push for these spots)

[richard pallo]

12 minutes ago, crunked said:

I'm curious if Deshawn Bond can return to pre injury form and if he could be plugged in at L-or-RG. That could (if you buy into the Norwell signing)  Castano, Bond, Kelly Norwell, (player to be signed or drafted) ....Good, Haeg, Vuj, Clark as back ups......

Good is the only one who I think could turn out to be a legitimate starter.  It wouldn't surprise me if Clark, Haag and Vuj are gone when the dust settles.  

[Crunked]

Just now, richard pallo said:

Good is the only one who I think could turn out to be a legitimate starter.  It wouldn't surprise me if Clark, Haag and Vuj are gone when the dust settles.  Bond and Pierson stay. 

Agreed I was editing in to draft mid round or sign journeymen FA or two to push those guys....push them either up or out if you know what I mean

[esmort]

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

The market for All Pro guards has been set at $12m/year. If you don't want to pay that for Norwell, don't waste your time submitting an offer. Might as well not even pick up the phone.

 

To paraphrase a line from Mr. and Mrs. Smith, 'he doesn't get out of bed for less than $60m.' 

 

My offer is five years, $65m. Just get it done.

 

I agree, Zeitler set the scale; that's why I would be happy if we did manage to get him for 5/60, but I wouldn't have a problem going up a little to lock it up.

[NewColtsFan]

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Ballard's point, as I took it, was that when you pay big money to bring a guy in, the locker room takes notice. If he's not a good locker room guy, if he's not a hard worker, doesn't take coaching, etc., the locker room knows. I got the impression that they won't go drop major money on a guy that they aren't convinced will fit their standard.

 

To me, Norwell is the prototype for a Ballard big money signing. UDFA, first year starter, hasn't missed a game in two years, earned and kept a starting spot, worked his way into an All Pro, clean off the field... 

 

First thing Ballard did in Indy is pay (slightly overpay, maybe?) Jack Doyle. Similar profile. 

 

When you pay a guy like that, it sends a message. 

 

Thank you.    I think this is an important point.

 

And to that end,  I'd like to float this idea, which may, or may not be as popular...

 

I'd like to reward AC for playing his best ball.    In late December,  on this website,  Ballard stated Castanzo is playing the best ball of his career.     So, I'd like to send a message,  and just throw him a sweetner.    A 1-year extension with some more guaranteed money.     Just enough to get the attention of those in the locker-room that hard work and improvement will lead to being rewarded.    Nothing earth shaking or nothing that might screw-up our available money for FA.     At least,  I hope not.

 

Your thoughts?

 

[Dark Superman]

I'm hoping Ballard can bring in two guys in FA who are proven starters and still in their youth. We need to bring in guys who are going to be here for at least a few years. Ballard preaches about locker room continuity and building chemistry. I'm confident no matter what happens in the draft that we will have a solid chance at grabbing a day one starter in the early rounds of the draft. Someone will slip and fall to us, but it will be up to Ballard to pull the trigger.

[richard pallo]

7 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Thank you.    I think this is an important point.

 

And to that end,  I'd like to float this idea, which may, or may not be as popular...

 

I'd like to reward AC for playing his best ball.    In late December,  on this website,  Ballard stated Castanzo is playing the best ball of his career.     So, I'd like to send a message,  and just throw him a sweetner.    A 1-year extension with some more guaranteed money.     Just enough to get the attention of those in the locker-room that hard work and improvement will lead to being rewarded.    Nothing earth shaking or nothing that might screw-up our available money for FA.     At least,  I hope not.

 

Your thoughts?

 

I could get behind an extension for AC.  I don't know when his contract is up but I think you have to be careful.  His agent might take it as a signal to go for it.  I wouldn't want it to have the opposite effect if arrangements couldn't be worked out.  That said It might be a good time to get an extra year if he would go for it. 

[Crunked]

Meanwhile in New England, they are enlarging the font on their locker room mantra, "Just do your job"

[The Peytonator]

Am I correct in thinking that if Carolina franchise tags Norwell it takes the average of the top five linemen? Not just guards but ALL linemen? If so that might make it marginally more likely he actually hits free agency. I just hope we get to the point where he is able to test free agency and we make a play. 

[dw49]

On 1/29/2018 at 1:04 PM, Superman said:

 

The market for All Pro guards has been set at $12m/year. If you don't want to pay that for Norwell, don't waste your time submitting an offer. Might as well not even pick up the phone.

 

To paraphrase a line from Mr. and Mrs. Smith, 'he doesn't get out of bed for less than $60m.' 

 

My offer is five years, $65m. Just get it done.

 

 

I posted a while back that it would be very tough for Carolina to keep Norwell considering the money they already had tied up in their OL. In some thread I mentioned about the only way they would make it happen without blowing their cap apart was to cut  Ryan Kalil . It would save them 7 mill and cost 3 mill in dead cap. If they know he's for sure gone in 2019 , maybe they could think about keeping Norwell ?

 

Panthers C Ryan Kalil plans to retire following the 2018 season.

Kalil's 2016 season was cut short because of a shoulder injury, and he was limited to six games last year because of a serious neck injury. Those injuries likely played a role in this decision, but Kalil says he has been cleared and is excited to have a healthy offseason. A second-round pick by the Panthers in 2007, Kalil is entering his 12th season in the league.

Source: Charlotte Observer 

Jan 30 - 12:43 PM