I Think I Know Exactly What's Going On In The Draft

[masnerj]

So here it is: I think I know exactly what is going to happen in this upcoming draft based on my own theories formed by connecting the dots with what has happened so far...

 

Setting the stage:

Irsay mentions Edgarrin James earlier in the year when talking about Andrew Luck and the need to pair him up with a guy similar to James who can set up a strong tandem. This made headlines everywhere and most people assumed that this meant heavy interest in a guy like Barkley, considered a generational talent at the RB position who can truly do it all and might perform similar/more than some stellar RBs drafted in recent years. 

 

Ballard in a few conversations about the draft pick has talked about how high it is, it being extremely rare to be in a position like this, not trying to be in a position like this again, lots of talents players found in the top 5 that a franchise might never have a chance at, etc. All this points towards him talking about a guy or two that he feels is extremely worth the 3rd overall pick which is what we have. 

 

Now moving on to the draft and the prospects, here are the teams at the top and their general needs:

 

Browns: 1st, 4th overall. Needs at QB, RB and reports suggest that they would ideally want to come out of those top two picks with a stellar tandem of RB and QB.

Giants: 2nd overall. Needs at QB cause of uncertainties with Manning and the future. A new coach, guy like Shurmer, knows that they won't have a chance to pick this high again so they probably will want a guy out of Rosen, Darnold, Allen. 

Colts: 3rd overall. Assuming Luck is healthy and coming back (and at this moment all things point towards this). Needs at RB, Pass-Rush, OL, etc.

 

What I think is happening here is that Ballard + Irsay are creating the notion that the Colts are extremely interested in a guy like Barkley and want to pair him up with Luck for the next 5-10 years. This scares the Browns because they pick just before us. The Browns, knowing that they can't draft Rosen cause he doesn't want to play for them, are stuck between Allen and Darnold. If they feel that there is not much difference between the two and that neither one is worth the #1 pick, they might just go ahead and select Barkley to make sure that they get him and that we don't mess up their plans with our 3rd overall pick. Then the giants select Rosen, and then all of a sudden there is a huge market for the the 3rd overall picks and we can drop down to 5 or 6 and still get Chubb who I would think would be a great fit in a 4-3 defense (Ballard has mentioned that the draft is a good place to draft players for schematic changes). 

 

Ballard might be trying to force Cleveland into thinking that at the very least we are interested in Barkley and at the very max that we love the guy and thus making them strongly consider drafting Barkley #1 overall.

 

Bottom line is that Cleveland drafting Barkley #1 overall is the best thing that can happen to us and I believe that that is exactly what will happen. And knowing Ballard, he already has an idea of what the minimum trade offers would be for a team like Denver so they can jump past the Browns and get their pick of Darnold or Allen. 

[BProland85]

Or we could force the Browns to trade up 1 spot from their 4th pick to select Barkley if they’re worried we’ll take him at 3. 

[Jaredfor3]

Why would the Browns do that when they can draft Barkley at one and draft a QB at 4. 

 

 

[ColtJ82]

I think it's January, we haven't filled holes via free agency, and even Ballard isn't sure how things will shake out at this point. 

[BOTT]

3 months until the draft.....

[crazycolt1]

I have said all along that the Browns will take Barkley at #1. They have 12 picks in this draft and can afford to trade and deal in numerous ways. If they want Barkley they would take him at #1 maybe thinking the Giants will take him at #2 if they didn't pull the trigger. Then if there was a QB at #3 they might deal with the Colts for that pick?

[ColtsBlitz]

If Cleveland is smart they take Barkley and get their choice of Rosen or Darnold at #4 knowing well we don’t need a QB, but guys, this is the Browns. They’ll find some way to * it up. 

[Clem-Dog]

1 minute ago, ColtsBlitz said:

If Cleveland is smart they take Barkley and get their choice of Rosen or Darnold at #4 knowing well we don’t need a QB, but guys, this is the Browns. They’ll find some way to * it up. 

 

Cleveland can't guarantee that Denver or the Jets won't trade up for our 3rd.  They should know to expect the unexpected as there are no guarantees.  

[Coltsman1788]

I no longer think the Colts will have a chance at Barkley.  Browns will likely take him at 1 and the Colts will either take Chubb at 3 or trade down if they feel they can still get him a little lower. 

[LockeDown]

Dorsey is probably better than what they are used to.  He knows you have to have a QB in this league and wont make a bad decision.  If his team doesn't think any of these QB prospects are the one, he will take Cousins or whomever.  He can then take Barkley if he wants, but if he wants o e of these QBs in the draft, you can't mess around.  You take them first.  Worry about 4 th pick later where you could get Barkley or Chubb or someone great. .  We didn't listen to trade deals seriously for Luck did we? No. It's all about free agency, imo.

[crazycolt1]

1 minute ago, ColtsBlitz said:

If Cleveland is smart they take Barkley and get their choice of Rosen or Darnold at #4 knowing well we don’t need a QB, but guys, this is the Browns. They’ll find some way to * it up. 

Don't be so quick thinking the Browns will screw this up. They have 12 draft picks (5 in the first 2 rounds) and over 100 million in cap space.

John Dorsey the GM of the Browns was the director of football operations for the Packers before he moved on to be the GM of the Chiefs. He does know what he is doing.

[lance_m8]

Nobody knows anything about how the draft will work out until the first pick is called in plus we haven't even hit free agency yet focus on that first 

[TdungyW/12]

Browns take Barkley @ 1, giants draft a QB ( Rosen ) for the future to sit behind manning 1-2 years. Colts trade down to 5/6 so Denver/jets ( I think ) get darnold/Allen ... we get Chubb and a couple more picks in the 2nd and 3rd end. 

 

 

 

[1959Colts]

Besides Barkley there are several other top tier running backs in this years draft.

 

Jeremiah's latest top 50 lists:

4 RBs in first round

2 RBs in second round

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000909727/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2018-nfl-draft?campaign=tw-articleshare

[BOTT]

57 minutes ago, ColtsBlitz said:

If Cleveland is smart they take Barkley and get their choice of Rosen or Darnold at #4 knowing well we don’t need a QB, but guys, this is the Browns. They’ll find some way to * it up. 

So the Browns are willing to gamble on missing out on a franchise QB so the can be certain the can get a franchise RB?  They would do this in 2018?  Not sure I buy that.

[Pelt]

1 hour ago, BOTT said:

3 months until the draft.....

Yep...

 

[dw49]

1 hour ago, masnerj said:

So here it is: I think I know exactly what is going to happen in this upcoming draft based on my own theories formed by connecting the dots with what has happened so far...

 

Setting the stage:

Irsay mentions Edgarrin James earlier in the year when talking about Andrew Luck and the need to pair him up with a guy similar to James who can set up a strong tandem. This made headlines everywhere and most people assumed that this meant heavy interest in a guy like Barkley, considered a generational talent at the RB position who can truly do it all and might perform similar/more than some stellar RBs drafted in recent years. 

 

Ballard in a few conversations about the draft pick has talked about how high it is, it being extremely rare to be in a position like this, not trying to be in a position like this again, lots of talents players found in the top 5 that a franchise might never have a chance at, etc. All this points towards him talking about a guy or two that he feels is extremely worth the 3rd overall pick which is what we have. 

 

Now moving on to the draft and the prospects, here are the teams at the top and their general needs:

 

Browns: 1st, 4th overall. Needs at QB, RB and reports suggest that they would ideally want to come out of those top two picks with a stellar tandem of RB and QB.

Giants: 2nd overall. Needs at QB cause of uncertainties with Manning and the future. A new coach, guy like Shurmer, knows that they won't have a chance to pick this high again so they probably will want a guy out of Rosen, Darnold, Allen. 

Colts: 3rd overall. Assuming Luck is healthy and coming back (and at this moment all things point towards this). Needs at RB, Pass-Rush, OL, etc.

 

What I think is happening here is that Ballard + Irsay are creating the notion that the Colts are extremely interested in a guy like Barkley and want to pair him up with Luck for the next 5-10 years. This scares the Browns because they pick just before us. The Browns, knowing that they can't draft Rosen cause he doesn't want to play for them, are stuck between Allen and Darnold. If they feel that there is not much difference between the two and that neither one is worth the #1 pick, they might just go ahead and select Barkley to make sure that they get him and that we don't mess up their plans with our 3rd overall pick. Then the giants select Rosen, and then all of a sudden there is a huge market for the the 3rd overall picks and we can drop down to 5 or 6 and still get Chubb who I would think would be a great fit in a 4-3 defense (Ballard has mentioned that the draft is a good place to draft players for schematic changes). 

 

Ballard might be trying to force Cleveland into thinking that at the very least we are interested in Barkley and at the very max that we love the guy and thus making them strongly consider drafting Barkley #1 overall.

 

Bottom line is that Cleveland drafting Barkley #1 overall is the best thing that can happen to us and I believe that that is exactly what will happen. And knowing Ballard, he already has an idea of what the minimum trade offers would be for a team like Denver so they can jump past the Browns and get their pick of Darnold or Allen. 

 

Naa.. won't happen unless maybe Cleveland signs Cousins which is very doubtful. The other scenario would be they have 3 QB's all rated around the same. If they go Barkley , Giants go for a QB at 2 , the Colts are almost a lock to trade the pick to Denver or the Jets . So Cleveland ends u with the 3rd QB taken. A way (IMO) more likely scenario would be the Browns and Giants go QB with picks 1 and 2. If the Browns want Barkly they give the colts like a 3rd for moving down a spot. Or the Colts could draft Barkly and trade to Cleveland if they didn't "trust" Cleve to pick Barkley. Way , way better route for Cleveland to go than taking the RB first. 

 

BTW... there was some talk in rotoworld about Cleveland and Mayfield being a fit. Not that I agree but here it is......

 

Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson reports there's "a fit developing" between the Browns and Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield.

"A lot of what he is as a player fits with John Dorsey," a league source told Robinson. "Just his makeup, John believes in building around those kinds of guys. I think he’s a strong candidate for the top pick after this week." Mayfield has been the best quarterback in Senior Bowl practices, outshining Wyoming's Josh Allen. His draft stock continues to trend up coming off a Heisman winning season. Despite size concerns, it won't be surprising if Mayfield ultimately lands in Cleveland with the first-overall pick.

[oldunclemark]

You cannot predict the NFL draft...

[Smonroe]

36 minutes ago, BOTT said:

So the Browns are willing to gamble on missing out on a franchise QB so the can be certain the can get a franchise RB?  They would do this in 2018?  Not sure I buy that.

 

They won’t.  First of all, assuming Rosen is the #1 prospect after all the analysis, he doesn’t get to chose who he’ll play for.  Dorsey has already addressed that.  If they like him, they’ll take him. 

 

Secondly, don’t assume the Giants are taking a QB.  They could easily wait and pick up a guy to sit behind Eli for two or three years.  He’s far from done. 

 

Ultimately, like everyone else has said, no one has a clue how the draft will play out.  Just look at last year for a good example of how everyone got it wrong.  

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, 1959Colts said:

Besides Barkley there are several other top tier running backs in this years draft.

 

Jeremiah's latest top 50 lists:

4 RBs in first round

2 RBs in second round

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000909727/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2018-nfl-draft?campaign=tw-articleshare

 

Not to pick a nit....    but Jeremiah's list is just a top-50.    It is NOT a mock.   

 

He is not predicting four RBs in the first and two more in the second.   He's only saying that, for right now, these are the 50 best players in his judgement.

 

 A list of top players and a mock draft are TOTALLY different.

 

Just wanted to make sure we're all discussing the same thing and clarify matters. 

 

 

[csmopar]

Gonna be funny to watch this forum implode when the Browns take Barkley and the Giants take Chubb...

[Smonroe]

1 minute ago, csmopar said:

Gonna be funny to watch this forum implode when the Browns take Barkley and the Giants take Chubb...

 

Or the Giants steal our thunder and trade their pick.  I really think people are overestimating how bad they want a QB.  

[NewColtsFan]

21 hours ago, csmopar said:

Gonna be funny to watch this forum implode when the Browns take Barkley and the Giants take Chubb...

 

Great post!      

 

People are forgetting just how much the Giants LOVE getting pass rush.   They're one of the franchises that has always leaned heavily toward more pass rush.

 

It would not surprise me at all if that happens.   It's my fear.  But, if that happens the Colts can still be in great shape...  depending on who the Browns take first overall, the Colts could still trade back a little to let Cleve or Denver or the Jets come and get a QB or another player.

 

We might still be sitting very pretty...

 

 

[superrep1967]

3 hours ago, ColtsBlitz said:

If Cleveland is smart they take Barkley and get their choice of Rosen or Darnold at #4 knowing well we don’t need a QB, but guys, this is the Browns. They’ll find some way to * it up. 

True, but they now have John Dorsey a very good football guy. They'll be smart with there picks. 

[BProland85]

2 hours ago, dw49 said:

 

Naa.. won't happen unless maybe Cleveland signs Cousins which is very doubtful. The other scenario would be they have 3 QB's all rated around the same. If they go Barkley , Giants go for a QB at 2 , the Colts are almost a lock to trade the pick to Denver or the Jets . So Cleveland ends u with the 3rd QB taken. A way (IMO) more likely scenario would be the Browns and Giants go QB with picks 1 and 2. If the Browns want Barkly they give the colts like a 3rd for moving down a spot. Or the Colts could draft Barkly and trade to Cleveland if they didn't "trust" Cleve to pick Barkley. Way , way better route for Cleveland to go than taking the RB first. 

 

BTW... there was some talk in rotoworld about Cleveland and Mayfield being a fit. Not that I agree but here it is......

 

Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson reports there's "a fit developing" between the Browns and Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield.

"A lot of what he is as a player fits with John Dorsey," a league source told Robinson. "Just his makeup, John believes in building around those kinds of guys. I think he’s a strong candidate for the top pick after this week." Mayfield has been the best quarterback in Senior Bowl practices, outshining Wyoming's Josh Allen. His draft stock continues to trend up coming off a Heisman winning season. Despite size concerns, it won't be surprising if Mayfield ultimately lands in Cleveland with the first-overall pick.

 

This would do wonders for the value of the 3rd overall pick. 

[BProland85]

1 hour ago, csmopar said:

Gonna be funny to watch this forum implode when the Browns take Barkley and the Giants take Chubb...

 

With the huge needs at QB for those 2 teams they’d be pretty dumb to do so. I can’t see the Browns passing on the guy they want at QB 1st overall.

[Hoo-Hoo-Hoo-Hoosiers]

Random thought here, my perception is Darnold and Rosen seemed to be much more hyped by nfl and college pundits prior to the start of the college season than they are presently.  Is it possible that each has played himself out of being drafted 1 and/or 2?  I am not suggesting that this year’s QB class is as bad as 2013’s class, but what is the chance that no QB is taken until well after the Colts pick?

[ColtsBlitz]

2 hours ago, BOTT said:

So the Browns are willing to gamble on missing out on a franchise QB so the can be certain the can get a franchise RB?  They would do this in 2018?  Not sure I buy that.

If they’re worried about not getting a QB they could always trade up with us. They have the ammunition. Getting the #1 running back and #1-2 QB isn’t so bad after all. 

[HectorRoberts]

Coming in to the draft the Browns will  have their heart set on one of the available qbs, I doubt they pass on him at number 1 to take Barkley, especially if they think that we have our heart set on Barkley and if they take him we would most likely trade down to a qb needy team that may possibly take their number 1 qb prospects before they have a chance to pick at #4

[HectorRoberts]

39 minutes ago, Hoo-Hoo-Hoo-Hoosiers said:

Random thought here, my perception is Darnold and Rosen seemed to be much more hyped by nfl and college pundits prior to the start of the college season than they are presently.  Is it possible that each has played himself out of being drafted 1 and/or 2?  I am not suggesting that this year’s QB class is as bad as 2013’s class, but what is the chance that no QB is taken until well after the Colts pick?

Probably not very good, this is supposed to be the best quarterback class in years

[Hoo-Hoo-Hoo-Hoosiers]

2 minutes ago, HectorRoberts said:

43 minutes ago, Hoo-Hoo-Hoo-Hoosiers said:

Random thought here, my perception is Darnold and Rosen seemed to be much more hyped by nfl and college pundits prior to the start of the college season than they are presently.  Is it possible that each has played himself out of being drafted 1 and/or 2?  I am not suggesting that this year’s QB class is as bad as 2013’s class, but what is the chance that no QB is taken until well after the Colts pick?

Probably not very good, this is supposed to be the best quarterback class in years

I was just thinking that if I were a fan of an organization that had to hang my hat on one of these two i would be bracing for a bumpy next few years.  But Either of these two QBs is probably a better option what is currently available to several teams.  Perhaps, I am just a spoiled colts fan who has had an elite QB on my team for the better part of the last 2 decades  

[Four2itus]

1 hour ago, Hoo-Hoo-Hoo-Hoosiers said:

Random thought here, my perception is Darnold and Rosen seemed to be much more hyped by nfl and college pundits prior to the start of the college season than they are presently.  Is it possible that each has played himself out of being drafted 1 and/or 2?  I am not suggesting that this year’s QB class is as bad as 2013’s class, but what is the chance that no QB is taken until well after the Colts pick?

No way does the first QB choice reach #4. 

[MacDee1975]

5 hours ago, masnerj said:

So here it is: I think I know exactly what is going to happen in this upcoming draft based on my own theories formed by connecting the dots with what has happened so far...

 

Setting the stage:

Irsay mentions Edgarrin James earlier in the year when talking about Andrew Luck and the need to pair him up with a guy similar to James who can set up a strong tandem. This made headlines everywhere and most people assumed that this meant heavy interest in a guy like Barkley, considered a generational talent at the RB position who can truly do it all and might perform similar/more than some stellar RBs drafted in recent years. 

 

Ballard in a few conversations about the draft pick has talked about how high it is, it being extremely rare to be in a position like this, not trying to be in a position like this again, lots of talents players found in the top 5 that a franchise might never have a chance at, etc. All this points towards him talking about a guy or two that he feels is extremely worth the 3rd overall pick which is what we have. 

 

Now moving on to the draft and the prospects, here are the teams at the top and their general needs:

 

Browns: 1st, 4th overall. Needs at QB, RB and reports suggest that they would ideally want to come out of those top two picks with a stellar tandem of RB and QB.

Giants: 2nd overall. Needs at QB cause of uncertainties with Manning and the future. A new coach, guy like Shurmer, knows that they won't have a chance to pick this high again so they probably will want a guy out of Rosen, Darnold, Allen. 

Colts: 3rd overall. Assuming Luck is healthy and coming back (and at this moment all things point towards this). Needs at RB, Pass-Rush, OL, etc.

 

What I think is happening here is that Ballard + Irsay are creating the notion that the Colts are extremely interested in a guy like Barkley and want to pair him up with Luck for the next 5-10 years. This scares the Browns because they pick just before us. The Browns, knowing that they can't draft Rosen cause he doesn't want to play for them, are stuck between Allen and Darnold. If they feel that there is not much difference between the two and that neither one is worth the #1 pick, they might just go ahead and select Barkley to make sure that they get him and that we don't mess up their plans with our 3rd overall pick. Then the giants select Rosen, and then all of a sudden there is a huge market for the the 3rd overall picks and we can drop down to 5 or 6 and still get Chubb who I would think would be a great fit in a 4-3 defense (Ballard has mentioned that the draft is a good place to draft players for schematic changes). 

 

Ballard might be trying to force Cleveland into thinking that at the very least we are interested in Barkley and at the very max that we love the guy and thus making them strongly consider drafting Barkley #1 overall.

 

Bottom line is that Cleveland drafting Barkley #1 overall is the best thing that can happen to us and I believe that that is exactly what will happen. And knowing Ballard, he already has an idea of what the minimum trade offers would be for a team like Denver so they can jump past the Browns and get their pick of Darnold or Allen. 

 

I'll go you one further:  the draft is the ONLY place to draft players for schematic changes.

 

[Defjamz26]

7 hours ago, BProland85 said:

Or we could force the Browns to trade up 1 spot from their 4th pick to select Barkley if they’re worried we’ll take him at 3. 

This is exactly what I think will happen. If they take their QB at 1 they’ll trade up for Barkley at 4. If they take Barkley at 1, they will definitely trade up from 4 to 3 knowing the other teams need QBs. With 5 picks in the first 2 rounds, they’ve got more capital than anyone else to move up and not really lose much.

[LockeDown]

4 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

This is exactly what I think will happen. If they take their QB at 1 they’ll trade up for Barkley at 4. If they take Barkley at 1, they will definitely trade up from 4 to 3 knowing the other teams need QBs. With 5 picks in the first 2 rounds, they’ve got more capital than anyone else to move up and not really lose much.

  To have the 1st and 4th picks and that's not good enough?  They should sit tight and get 2 elite players, imo.  That's a home run. 

[BProland85]

11 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

This is exactly what I think will happen. If they take their QB at 1 they’ll trade up for Barkley at 4. If they take Barkley at 1, they will definitely trade up from 4 to 3 knowing the other teams need QBs. With 5 picks in the first 2 rounds, they’ve got more capital than anyone else to move up and not really lose much.

 

I’d love getting their 33rd overall pick just to move down 1 spot!!

[OLD FAN MAN]

8 hours ago, Coltsman1788 said:

I no longer think the Colts will have a chance at Barkley.  Browns will likely take him at 1 and the Colts will either take Chubb at 3 or trade down if they feel they can still get him a little lower. 

the most elite player in the draft will go #1 barkley wont be there when we pick

[King Colt]

Anyone know what the 2021 Ford F150s will look like?

[Dingus McGirt]

14 hours ago, oldunclemark said:

You cannot predict the NFL draft...

Concur.  Last year's version certainly supports your statement.

[csmopar]

6 hours ago, King Colt said:

Anyone know what the 2021 Ford F150s will look like?

Actually yes.