Small trade down in first round with Jets pays big dividends

[Hoose]

I like the scenario where the Jets trade up with the Colts to get their QB of the future. 

I know the draft trade value chart won't completely agree with my assumptions here, but when it comes to trading up to the 3rd overall pick, you pay more. 

Jets trade pick 6 in round 1; pick 37 in round 2; and pick 72 in round 3. 

Colts get lucky: Chubb is still there.

 

Rd. 1 pick 6;   Bradley Chubb, OLB/DE

Rd. 2 pick 36: Tremaine Edmunds, ILB

Rd. 2, pick 37: Billy Price, G/C

Rd. 3, pick 67: Simmie Cobbs, WR

Rd. 3, pick 72: Rashaad Perry, RB

 

This assumes that the Colts pick up several key pieces in free agency. I'd like Norwell at G; Allen Robinson at WR; and hopefully a solid ILB that can cover. 

Not a bad haul. 

[BleedBlu8792]

9 minutes ago, Hoose said:

I like the scenario where the Jets trade up with the Colts to get their QB of the future. 

I know the draft trade value chart won't completely agree with my assumptions here, but when it comes to trading up to the 3rd overall pick, you pay more. 

Jets trade pick 6 in round 1; pick 37 in round 2; and pick 72 in round 3. 

Colts get lucky: Chubb is still there.

 

Rd. 1 pick 6;   Bradley Chubb, OLB/DE

Rd. 2 pick 36: Tremaine Edmunds, ILB

Rd. 2, pick 37: Billy Price, G/C

Rd. 3, pick 67: Simmie Cobbs, WR

Rd. 3, pick 72: Rashaad Perry, RB

 

This assumes that the Colts pick up several key pieces in free agency. I'd like Norwell at G; Allen Robinson at WR; and hopefully a solid ILB that can cover. 

Not a bad haul. 

 

If Edmunds lasts until then, that would be fantastic, but there's a pretty good chance he's going to test very well and he's going to make his way into the first round. That kid is legit, but damn would we hit the lottery with those 2 picks if it were to happen this way.

[reidaj1812]

would be a good trade but I doubt Chubb will be there at 6. I think we should keep #3 and do some work in FA especially with the OL. I also think we should sign Gore for

one more year and worry about rb next year. if we can

fix the OL and ILB with FA we should use the draft for

1: ER

2: CB

3: WR

[RealityIsLuck]

 I’d even argue if one of the two top quarterbacks still available a bidding war may break out between Denver and New York in which we would have leverage to demand to second round picks as New York has two and that trade be truly amazing 

[Colts_Fan12]

1 hour ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

If Edmunds lasts until then, that would be fantastic, but there's a pretty good chance he's going to test very well and he's going to make his way into the first round. That kid is legit, but damn would we hit the lottery with those 2 picks if it were to happen this way.

I agree some mocks have him as the 1st ILB off the board 

[boo2202]

Edmunds falling to 2nd round ain't gonna happen. 

[BProland85]

2 hours ago, Hoose said:

I like the scenario where the Jets trade up with the Colts to get their QB of the future. 

I know the draft trade value chart won't completely agree with my assumptions here, but when it comes to trading up to the 3rd overall pick, you pay more. 

Jets trade pick 6 in round 1; pick 37 in round 2; and pick 72 in round 3. 

Colts get lucky: Chubb is still there.

 

Rd. 1 pick 6;   Bradley Chubb, OLB/DE

Rd. 2 pick 36: Tremaine Edmunds, ILB

Rd. 2, pick 37: Billy Price, G/C

Rd. 3, pick 67: Simmie Cobbs, WR

Rd. 3, pick 72: Rashaad Perry, RB

 

This assumes that the Colts pick up several key pieces in free agency. I'd like Norwell at G; Allen Robinson at WR; and hopefully a solid ILB that can cover. 

Not a bad haul. 

 

I do believe Chubb would still be there at 6 overall. 

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, Hoose said:

I like the scenario where the Jets trade up with the Colts to get their QB of the future. 

I know the draft trade value chart won't completely agree with my assumptions here, but when it comes to trading up to the 3rd overall pick, you pay more. 

Jets trade pick 6 in round 1; pick 37 in round 2; and pick 72 in round 3. 

Colts get lucky: Chubb is still there.

 

Rd. 1 pick 6;   Bradley Chubb, OLB/DE

Rd. 2 pick 36: Tremaine Edmunds, ILB

Rd. 2, pick 37: Billy Price, G/C

Rd. 3, pick 67: Simmie Cobbs, WR

Rd. 3, pick 72: Rashaad Perry, RB

 

This assumes that the Colts pick up several key pieces in free agency. I'd like Norwell at G; Allen Robinson at WR; and hopefully a solid ILB that can cover. 

Not a bad haul. 

 

At this stage of the process,  I think there's a good chance that both Edmunds and Price will be gone in the first round.

 

That could change between now and then...    and if both are gone there will be other very good players available.   It just may not be these two.

 

 

 

[Fluke_33]

8 hours ago, Hoose said:

I like the scenario where the Jets trade up with the Colts to get their QB of the future. 

I know the draft trade value chart won't completely agree with my assumptions here, but when it comes to trading up to the 3rd overall pick, you pay more. 

Jets trade pick 6 in round 1; pick 37 in round 2; and pick 72 in round 3. 

Colts get lucky: Chubb is still there.

 

Rd. 1 pick 6;   Bradley Chubb, OLB/DE

Rd. 2 pick 36: Tremaine Edmunds, ILB

Rd. 2, pick 37: Billy Price, G/C

Rd. 3, pick 67: Simmie Cobbs, WR

Rd. 3, pick 72: Rashaad Perry, RB

 

This assumes that the Colts pick up several key pieces in free agency. I'd like Norwell at G; Allen Robinson at WR; and hopefully a solid ILB that can cover. 

Not a bad haul. 

How about Jamal Adams instead of their first plus their second and third.  

[loudnproudcolt]

I think you can almost throw the draft value chart out when you are trading up in the top 3 to get what a team sees as its next franchise QB. You can't totally, but we have seen time and again, when a team falls in love with a QB, and needs a franchise QB, you can really do well trading down, and demanding more than the trade chart.

 

Just look at Robert Griffin III I think only traded up one spot if I remember, from third to second, maybe two, but look at what they gave up. It was a goldmine of picks for LA (St. Louis at the time), which far exceeded the chart. There are plenty of other examples over the years. Point is, in the top 5-10 especially, if a team wants a player, and falls in love, it becomes a game of a good GM understanding his leverage.

[loudnproudcolt]

I just posted Jeremiah's first draft, plus all the talk I have heard, has Edmunds going in the first, and very high. He has a higher ceiling than Roquan Smith due to his size, and I think will test really well. As I said above, even that small move, I would probably try to get more.

 

When Kiper was doing his draft the other night, and Polian was speaking, he said something interesting. He said you so rarely pick in the top 3, and if there is a play maker you like, unless you get another 1st in addition to other picks, he would never move out of the spot. So as I said, I don't know about a future 1st, plus the second, etc. but it has happened before. Possible elite QB's make the draft so much more interesting. Look at last year's QB class and the trades, and none of them were considered elite coming into the draft.

[DraftMaster]

15 hours ago, reidaj1812 said:

would be a good trade but I doubt Chubb will be there at 6. I think we should keep #3 and do some work in FA especially with the OL. I also think we should sign Gore for

one more year and worry about rb next year. if we can

fix the OL and ILB with FA we should use the draft for

1: ER

2: CB

3: WR

Chubb most likely will be there at 6. Tampa is the only other team that needs a DE and they are 7.

@Hoose one of the best mock drafts I've seen this offseason. Good job!

 

1. Barkley

2.Rosen

3.Darnold (NYJ)

4. Allen

5. Williams/Mayfield

6.Chubb (IND)

[Hoose]

Thanks. One of the reasons I picked the Jets as the trade partner is that I believe Denver will go for a seasoned QB  in free agency rather than pick a rookie in the draft. They've tried that and failed. Their Defense is still decent, absent injuries, and they should be in win now mode. 

 

There is a better than decent chance that Chubb will be there at the 6th pick, given the needs of the first 5. Denver still has a great defense, and really, really needs some players on offense, including QB, O-line, RB, and WR. 

 

 

[IndyScribe]

Really good mock draft. Nice job!

[akcolt]

22 hours ago, Hoose said:

I like the scenario where the Jets trade up with the Colts to get their QB of the future. 

I know the draft trade value chart won't completely agree with my assumptions here, but when it comes to trading up to the 3rd overall pick, you pay more. 

Jets trade pick 6 in round 1; pick 37 in round 2; and pick 72 in round 3. 

Colts get lucky: Chubb is still there.

 

Rd. 1 pick 6;   Bradley Chubb, OLB/DE

Rd. 2 pick 36: Tremaine Edmunds, ILB

Rd. 2, pick 37: Billy Price, G/C

Rd. 3, pick 67: Simmie Cobbs, WR

Rd. 3, pick 72: Rashaad Perry, RB

 

This assumes that the Colts pick up several key pieces in free agency. I'd like Norwell at G; Allen Robinson at WR; and hopefully a solid ILB that can cover. 

Not a bad haul. 

Hitchens maybe the FA ILB lot of talk about him coming with the DC. As a few others have said unless something significant happens we aren't getting Edmunds at 36 Kiper has Cinny taking him at 12 to give you an idea of his value. 

 

Have you looked at Pettis from Washington? I like Cobbs don't get me wrong but a day 2 WR I want Pettis 6'1 185lbs solid route runner and he broke the record for punt return touchdowns in a career this year.. I can't remember the last time we were dangerous returning punts. 

 

I like the trade down and extra picks. Where do the Bills pick? They have 2 first rounders. The draft position of a lot of players will change between now and the combine 

[loudnproudcolt]

Pettis would be perfect in McDaniel's system as a slot receiver. His system uses that position with someone who is really quick, and a good possession receiver. Pettis is not only quick, but he is fast. We have some other slot receivers, but Pettis could play slot, and also tall enough to move out wide.

[shasta519]

On 1/21/2018 at 8:53 AM, Fluke_33 said:

How about Jamal Adams instead of their first plus their second and third.  

 

Jets aren't trading Adams. But I think Ballard might just consider that deal (especially if he had Adams ranked higher than Minkah).

[Colts_Fan12]

On 1/21/2018 at 8:53 AM, Fluke_33 said:

How about Jamal Adams instead of their first plus their second and third.  

Yeah right if they offer that you take it him and Hooker would be amazing 

[dgambill]

On ‎1‎/‎21‎/‎2018 at 1:50 PM, loudnproudcolt said:

I just posted Jeremiah's first draft, plus all the talk I have heard, has Edmunds going in the first, and very high. He has a higher ceiling than Roquan Smith due to his size, and I think will test really well. As I said above, even that small move, I would probably try to get more.

 

When Kiper was doing his draft the other night, and Polian was speaking, he said something interesting. He said you so rarely pick in the top 3, and if there is a play maker you like, unless you get another 1st in addition to other picks, he would never move out of the spot. So as I said, I don't know about a future 1st, plus the second, etc. but it has happened before. Possible elite QB's make the draft so much more interesting. Look at last year's QB class and the trades, and none of them were considered elite coming into the draft.

Agree with Polian. I don't trade back unless I get multiple firsts. Don't get me wrong...I love instant gratification of a second this year but long term the potential upside of future first greatly outweighs what a second gets us. Very likely a team moving up for a rookie qb is going to go through some growing pains and that first might be a top 10 next year. Otherwise I sit tight because someone will offer better or I take my guy.

[Dark Superman]

Can't see the Jets giving up both their second and third round picks to move up three spots.

[Dark Superman]

I mean, I would take this all day. The Jets obviously would love to jump in front of Denver at 5 and if the Giants end up drafting Barkley, I could really see the Jets trying to move up to 3.

[esmort]

12 hours ago, dgambill said:

Agree with Polian. I don't trade back unless I get multiple firsts. Don't get me wrong...I love instant gratification of a second this year but long term the potential upside of future first greatly outweighs what a second gets us. Very likely a team moving up for a rookie qb is going to go through some growing pains and that first might be a top 10 next year. Otherwise I sit tight because someone will offer better or I take my guy.

 

You wouldn't trade back to 6 with the Jets for their two 2nd round picks?

[Dark Superman]

2 hours ago, esmort said:

 

You wouldn't trade back to 6 with the Jets for their two 2nd round picks?

I would. Can't see the Jets giving up their 6th overall and two second-round picks just to move up three spots unless there's a QB on the board they see as their guy for the next 10-15 years.

[NewColtsFan]

 

I think we'd all trade back for a 1 and two 2's.

 

The question is....    would the Jets make that payment.     I'm not sure they would.

 

I believe they'd do it for their 1, 2, and 3.      But the subbing out of the 3 for the 2nd 2 would likely be a deal breaker IMO.

 

[Colt Overseas]

4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I think we'd all trade back for a 1 and two 2's.

 

The question is....    would the Jets make that payment.     I'm not sure they would.

 

I believe they'd do it for their 1, 2, and 3.      But the subbing out of the 3 for the 2nd 2 would likely be a deal breaker IMO.

 

 

Agreed. The only way I think we get 2 2nd round picks from the Jets if that a bidding war develops between them and Denver. If Rosen or Darnold fall to us at #3, that could very well happen. It would require though, something like the Giants giving Eli another year or the Browns to sign a QB or take Barkley. 

[rockywoj]

Our first for Jets’ 1st rndr & 2nd rndr this year, and their 1st rndr next year.   That would be my price.

[Shadow_Creek]

i heard the jets might be trying to trade with the giants for there pick. If that's the case there definitely not playing around this year.