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Trade down. Pick your poison.


Which offer would you choose?   

39 members have voted

  1. 1. Which offer would you choose?

    • Broncos
      6
    • Jets
      7
    • Cardinals
      7
    • Bills
      15
    • Jaguars
      4


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Trade down. Pick your poison! 

Disclaimer. I'm assuming we get no. 3 in the draft and I'm assuming the team trading up is doing it to get a QB, thus it's possible some of those offers to be slight overpays in a similar way Philly overpaid for Wentz, Rams overpaid for Goff, Chicago overpaid for Trubisky, etc. I will try to include different scenarios with different incentives spread throughout several years or focused specifically on this year. So here we go... Draft day is coming and somewhat of a bidding war is brewing for the Colts pick. Here are the offers we get:

 

The Broncos want a QB and are offering:

-2018 #6 pick(Broncos first round pick)

-2018 #39 pick(Broncos second round pick)

-2019 third round pick

 

The Jets want a QB and are offering:

-2018 #7 pick(Jets first round pick)

-2018 #51 pick(Seattle's second round pick)

-2019 second round pick

 

The Cardinals want to draft their QB of the future:

-2018 #13 pick(Cardinals first round pick)

-2018 #77 pick(Cardinals third round pick)

-2019 first round pick

 

The Bills want a QB and are offering:

-2018 #17(Bills first round pick)

-2018 #25(Chiefs first round pick)

-2018 #49(Bills second round pick)

-2018 #123 pick(Bills fourth round pick)

-2019 third round pick. 

 

Jaguars really like one of the QBs and want him desperately to replace Bortles:

-2018 #26(Jaguars first round pick)

-2018 #90(Jaguars third round pick)

-2019 first round pick

-2020 first round pick 

 

What offer do you choose and why? Who would you be targeting with the acquired picks? 

 

 

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Nice Post! I'm going with the Bills. I would love to see what Ballard could do with 2 firsts and 2 second round picks this year. Get the best available O-line player with pick #17 and maybe roquan Smith with # 25. that would take care of two major needs. I wouldn't want to trade with Jags bc they are in our division and will most likely be late first round picks the next few years.

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1 hour ago, Reidm said:

Nice Post! I'm going with the Bills. I would love to see what Ballard could do with 2 firsts and 2 second round picks this year. Get the best available O-line player with pick #17 and maybe roquan Smith with # 25. that would take care of two major needs. I wouldn't want to trade with Jags bc they are in our division and will most likely be late first round picks the next few years.

 

I'm in agreement here for similar reasons.  I would take the Bills offer first.  

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, stitches said:

Trade down. Pick your poison! 

Disclaimer. I'm assuming we get no. 3 in the draft and I'm assuming the team trading up is doing it to get a QB, thus it's possible some of those offers to be slight overpays in a similar way Philly overpaid for Wentz, Rams overpaid for Goff, Chicago overpaid for Trubisky, etc. I will try to include different scenarios with different incentives spread throughout several years or focused specifically on this year. So here we go... Draft day is coming and somewhat of a bidding war is brewing for the Colts pick. Here are the offers we get:

 

The Broncos want a QB and are offering:

-2018 #6 pick(Broncos first round pick)

-2018 #39 pick(Broncos second round pick)

-2019 third round pick

 

The Jets want a QB and are offering:

-2018 #7 pick(Jets first round pick)

-2018 #51 pick(Seattle's second round pick)

-2019 second round pick

 

The Cardinals want to draft their QB of the future:

-2018 #13 pick(Cardinals first round pick)

-2018 #77 pick(Cardinals third round pick)

-2019 first round pick

 

The Bills want a QB and are offering:

-2018 #17(Bills first round pick)

-2018 #25(Chiefs first round pick)

-2018 #49(Bills second round pick)

-2018 #123 pick(Bills fourth round pick)

-2019 third round pick. 

 

Jaguars really like one of the QBs and want him desperately to replace Bortles:

-2018 #26(Jaguars first round pick)

-2018 #90(Jaguars third round pick)

-2019 first round pick

-2020 first round pick 

 

What offer do you choose and why? Who would you be targeting with the acquired picks? 

 

 

 

I'm trading back as little as I have to.    So I'll take the Denver offer.

 

This allows me to get a top-70 pick this draft and a top-80-90 pick in 19...

 

PLUS....

 

From the 6th spot I can still trade down again if I want and collect MORE draft picks from another team.     

 

I dont see a down-side to this...

 

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31 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

Are these value chart realistic?

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

 

Somewhat realistic with some projection(for example projecting that Jax will be picking late for the next several years) and some decline of value for future picks. Also, usually the teams that trade up in the draft for a QB have to overpay a bit by that chart. 

 

 

The Colts pick has 2200 value... 

 

The Broncos want a QB and are offering:

-2018 #6 pick(Broncos first round pick) 1600

-2018 #39 pick(Broncos second round pick) 510

-2019 third round pick 190->(this one is usually valued lower due to the fact that it's a future pick)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

2300

 

The Jets want a QB and are offering:

-2018 #7 pick(Jets first round pick) 1500

-2018 #51 pick(Seattle's second round pick) 390

-2019 second round pick  420->(this one will usually be valued lower due to the fact that it's a future pick)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2310

 

The Cardinals want to draft their QB of the future:

-2018 #13 pick(Cardinals first round pick) 1150

-2018 #77 pick(Cardinals third round pick) 205

-2019 first round pick 1000 ->(this one will usually be valued lower due to the fact that it's a future pick)

-------------------------------------------------------------------

2355

 

The Bills want a QB and are offering:

-2018 #17(Bills first round pick) 950

-2018 #25(Chiefs first round pick) 720

-2018 #49(Bills second round pick) 410

-2018 #123 pick(Bills fourth round pick) 49

-2019 third round pick. 190->(this one is usually valued lower due to the fact that it's a future pick)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

2319

 

Jaguars really like one of the QBs and want him desperately to replace Bortles:

-2018 #26(Jaguars first round pick) 700

-2018 #90(Jaguars third round pick) 140

-2019 first round pick 700(I'm assuming this one won't be better than their current pick + future pick devaluing)

-2020 first round pick  700(I'm assuming this one won't be better than their current pick + future pick devaluing)

---------------------------------------------------------------

2240

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Jets and Cardinals offers seem like worse versions of the Broncos offer, so I'm scratching them. 

 

Broncos offer only sacrifices three spots. It's the best offer if you really like one of the top 3 non-QB prospects. As of right now, I'm not in love with any of them. So I'm not that excited by moving to #6, but like adding #39.

 

The Bills offer loads me up in 2018, which is great, and it leaves me with options to move back up in the first round. It also increases the likelihood that I wind up carrying an extra four rookies on my active roster, which might hurt my win/loss record in 2018.

 

The Jaguars pick is intriguing if you're not in love with the 2018 class and expect 2019 to be better. That future first from a team that has historically been bad, doesn't have an established QB or a great head coach (IMO), and is more likely to pick top 10 than bottom 10 (again, IMO), is attractive. But moving all the way down to #26 and only coming away with an extra late 3rd in 2018 isn't rich enough for me.

 

I think I'd take the Bills offer, and keep working the phones. I think I could get back into the top 10 and still have #25, coming away with two first round picks in a draft class that, outside of QBs, doesn't seem to be very top heavy. 

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

The Jaguars pick is intriguing if you're not in love with the 2018 class and expect 2019 to be better. That future first from a team that has historically been bad, doesn't have an established QB or a great head coach (IMO), and is more likely to pick top 10 than bottom 10 (again, IMO), is attractive. But moving all the way down to #26 and only coming away with an extra late 3rd in 2018 isn't rich enough for me.

 

Yea...long term....this is intriguing. 

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2 hours ago, stitches said:

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

 

Somewhat realistic with some projection(for example projecting that Jax will be picking late for the next several years) and some decline of value for future picks. Also, usually the teams that trade up in the draft for a QB have to overpay a bit by that chart. 

 

 

The Colts pick has 2200 value... 

 

The Broncos want a QB and are offering:

-2018 #6 pick(Broncos first round pick) 1600

-2018 #39 pick(Broncos second round pick) 510

-2019 third round pick 190->(this one is usually valued lower due to the fact that it's a future pick)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

2300

 

The Jets want a QB and are offering:

-2018 #7 pick(Jets first round pick) 1500

-2018 #51 pick(Seattle's second round pick) 390

-2019 second round pick  420->(this one will usually be valued lower due to the fact that it's a future pick)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2310

 

The Cardinals want to draft their QB of the future:

-2018 #13 pick(Cardinals first round pick) 1150

-2018 #77 pick(Cardinals third round pick) 205

-2019 first round pick 1000 ->(this one will usually be valued lower due to the fact that it's a future pick)

-------------------------------------------------------------------

2355

 

The Bills want a QB and are offering:

-2018 #17(Bills first round pick) 950

-2018 #25(Chiefs first round pick) 720

-2018 #49(Bills second round pick) 410

-2018 #123 pick(Bills fourth round pick) 49

-2019 third round pick. 190->(this one is usually valued lower due to the fact that it's a future pick)

--------------------------------------------------------------------

2319

 

Jaguars really like one of the QBs and want him desperately to replace Bortles:

-2018 #26(Jaguars first round pick) 700

-2018 #90(Jaguars third round pick) 140

-2019 first round pick 700(I'm assuming this one won't be better than their current pick + future pick devaluing)

-2020 first round pick  700(I'm assuming this one won't be better than their current pick + future pick devaluing)

---------------------------------------------------------------

2240

Where are you getting the values for the future picks? I think they are worth a lot less than what you are giving them credit for. A pick this year is much more valuable than a pick next year while you value them close to the same. 

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I kinda like the Arizona offer if I thought Quenton Nelson or Connor Williams would be available at the 13th pick. Having a potentially high 1st rounder from AZ in 2019 would be huge. 

 

But I'd also highly consider the Broncos offer. I wouldn't wanna trade down past the AZ offer though. 

 

 

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Maybe I'm just crazy, but I would honestly go for the Jags offer. Going all the way down to 26 stings no doubt, but if you play your cards right, you could build a contender for a long time with all that capital.

 

It gives Indy 2 firsts for the next two drafts. Like superman said, if you think the 19 and 20 drafts are going to be better (or you just don't think the top of the 18 draft is as good), you'll be in a lot of luck. Plus it gives you more ammunition to pull off similar trades in future drafts. 

 

A major con though is you'd have to bet on yourself to not only beat the jags, but finish higher than them in the standings so those picks aren't just more late firsts. Giving em an opportunity at a franchise QB isn't exactly helping that.

 

It also harms you short term, but if you're a smart Gm, you can find a way to build a competitive team with Luck at QB, and  without needing a Bradley Chubb or Quenton Nelson  for 2018.

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I went with the Jets. The #7 pick would give us a shot at a great addition prospect (we may have a choice of Clelin Ferrell, Quenton Nelson, or Roquan Smith). Adding the extra second rounders both this year and next could make a big difference, seeing how many needs we have. 

 

Edit: The more I look at it, the more I kind of like the Jags one though...

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6 hours ago, Luck 4 president said:

Where are you getting the values for the future picks? I think they are worth a lot less than what you are giving them credit for. A pick this year is much more valuable than a pick next year while you value them close to the same. 

I'm projecting most to have the mean value for the round. For example, for future 1st it's 1000 points(16th pick)...

 

I haven't deducted points for those being future picks, but you can assume the difference since most of the trades return about a 100 points more than we give up with the 3d pick. 

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@SupermanIMO the league undervaluing future picks is a SERIOUS inefficiency to be exploited. The reason GMs are not doing it is because of job security(they want the players that can help them now, rather than in the future when they might have lost their job). So if you give the GM job security and he knows for sure he won't be fired in the next 5-6-7 years there is no reason a future pick should be worth less than the same pick in the present for the team(considering generic drafts, i.e. the current draft is not considered much stronger than the next one for example). Over the long haul you will get better picks and better players when picking higher in the draft. If teams value future 3d rounders like current year 4th rounders or future 1sts like current year seconds etc IMO it's no brainier to stack up on future picks. This is especially true for a team that's in rebuild and is not expected to be contender in the next year or two. 

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7 hours ago, stitches said:

@SupermanIMO the league undervaluing future picks is a SERIOUS inefficiency to be exploited. The reason GMs are not doing it is because of job security(they want the players that can help them now, rather than in the future when they might have lost their job). So if you give the GM job security and he knows for sure he won't be fired in the next 5-6-7 years there is no reason a future pick should be worth less than the same pick in the present for the team(considering generic drafts, i.e. the current draft is not considered much stronger than the next one for example). Over the long haul you will get better picks and better players when picking higher in the draft. If teams value future 3d rounders like current year 4th rounders or future 1sts like current year seconds etc IMO it's no brainier to stack up on future picks. This is especially true for a team that's in rebuild and is not expected to be contender in the next year or two. 

 

I agree with all of this, I just think you're giving away what might your only chance to pick in the top ten, and only getting back a 2018 3rd. You've significantly weakened your 2018 draft class, and while you're absolutely right that adding future firsts is tremendously valuable, it's still important to start building your foundation right now.

 

The flip side is that those future firsts are still assets that you could use to move back up in this year's draft, if you wanted. Either getting back up into the 15-ish range, or adding a couple of 2nd rounders. Or you could jump up in the 2019 draft, using the extra firsts you have.

 

It's definitely not a bad option.

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I take the Broncos offer, but I make them give me a 2019 second round pick instead of a third rounder. That's just the price of doing business for a top QB. The value chart gets violated a tad, but it won't be the first time. The Colts then find themselves in position to have four of the top 40 players in the draft, which will give them a shot at filling several key needs on the D and the O. 

 

If the Colts do this, they probably give up the ability to get a pass rush specialist in Chubb. Instead you have to think they are going to take a player like Quentin Nelson, which would be a good consolation prize. 

 

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It's interesting to note about trading back to the Jets and Bronco's positions. There is still a decent chance Chubb might be available at either the #6 or #7 overall pick. Need to watch out for Tampa and what they want, a pass rusher like Chubb will be right close to the top of their board. So thinking of it

 

1. Cleveland: Will want a QB.

2. Giants: Likely a QB

3. Broncos/Jets: QB

4. Houston: Not likely to select Chubb or Barkley here because they have good players in the positions. I think Fitzpatick or Oline.

5. Tampa: If Barkley is still here they make take him over Chubb but probably still Chubb. They have some decent players never the less on their dline, and Noah Spence has shown some promise. Doug Martin has played terrible this year too.

6. Broncos/Colts: Bronco's have glaring other needs than pass rush obviously.

7: Jets/Colts: Chubb could still be on the board here. But maybe an outside chance.

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7 hours ago, Colt Overseas said:

 

4. Houston: Not likely to select Chubb or Barkley here because they have good players in the positions. I think Fitzpatick or Oline.

 

Houston's pick goes to the Browns because of last year's trade for Watson's pick. So at no. 4 Browns very well might select Barkley. 

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Broncos. I may miss out on Barkley, but I could still land Nelson. Plus an extra early 2nd rounder. You could grab another OL with that extra pick, use the other for defense. They’d have to sweeten the deal a little though. Throw in a 4th/5th rounder or give us Lattimore.

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I also choose the Bills option.  I do wish I had the direct insight of Superman and agree with his analysis.  Look at both the Browns and 49ers in recent years loading up on draft picks with young unproven talent and still continue to be bottom dwellers in the league.  After rookie contacts expire see who moves on and who stays.  Our Colts have too many holes on both the offense and defense we need to best leverage our options in this draft.  Build a young team capable of playing together for many years.

 

As far a Chubb I am personally not that high on him and would fill our roster with other areas of major need.  I would prefer to have a 2019 first round pick and target Nick Bosa.  

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2 hours ago, OhioColt said:

I also choose the Bills option.  I do wish I had the direct insight of Superman and agree with his analysis.  Look at both the Browns and 49ers in recent years loading up on draft picks with young unproven talent and still continue to be bottom dwellers in the league.  After rookie contacts expire see who moves on and who stays.  Our Colts have too many holes on both the offense and defense we need to best leverage our options in this draft.  Build a young team capable of playing together for many years.

 

As far a Chubb I am personally not that high on him and would fill our roster with other areas of major need.  I would prefer to have a 2019 first round pick and target Nick Bosa.  

Don't agree.   Chubb is every bit as good as Bosa if not better

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Basically, the less down the ladder the Colts trade, the more it makes sense. I still think that Denver is the pigeon that comes to our roost. Their QB situation is killing them. With their window slowly closing, this is the team that needs to win now and should provide the best offer, IMO. 

 

If no team in the top 12 offers enough, keep the doggone pick and get a game changer. Chubb, if he pans out in testing, looks like that guy. 

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Hard to say what is more likely since free agency will see a qb carousel obviously. I think there will be plenty of action at the top with us and Cleveland at 4 with teams trying to get that 3rd qb. If I trade back it’s going to cost a premium because I am giving up the best non-qb in the draft. I have to assume Cleveland takes Barkley and Tampa takes Chubb so the big name players I would take if I stayed at 3 probably won’t be there if we trade back. So if u trade back I’m going to ask for a premium. I want a future first for moving back in this draft. So it might be too rich for some teams but anyone outside of top 8-10 better back up the truck and unload picks to me. I want first this year plus next and additional pick this year....if I’m going all the way back to Buffalo I don’t care what the value chart is....I’m getting 3 first round picks. Two this year and one next. Sure I miss out on the pass rusher likely but I take the best lineman available Nelson, Mcglintey, Brown or say Smith at LB if he fell that far...then in the mid 20s there are some pass rushers that might be available in that area. Then we still have pick at top of round 2. So many needs you have to address I think you trade back if you can get multiple firsts. If not it just isn’t worth what we will give up to me.

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Usually I love the option of trading down but only if you're getting multiple 1st round picks.

 

I'd love to see the 'success rate' of trades when teams move down in the 1st and just pick up more 2nd/3rd round picks.

 

From the 3rd spot I'm not a fan though. We could potentially be in a position to pick up the best non-quarterback available and when you already have a franchise QB that should be a place to exploit rather than pass up.

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