Colts to pick #2 or #3 (even with a win week 17)

[ponyboy]

With this loss to BAL, IND is now almost guaranteed to be drafting either #2 or #3, even if we beat HOU next week.

 

I say almost because #4 is still possible if SF jumps us for #3, but the scenario for that is almost impossible (see SF scenario below).

 

Colts 3-13
#2 if NYG beat either ARI or WSH
#3 otherwise

 

Colts 4-12
#2 if NYG beat both ARI and WSH
#3 virtually a lock if NYG loses one
#4 almost impossible, but mathematically possible (if my analysis regarding SF SoS is right, see below)

 

 

SF scenario
- Niners lose both remaining games finishing 4-12.
- Going into Week 16 SF has a +5 gap in opponents wins over IND [109 vs 114].
- In the final 2 weeks SF is guaranteed to pick up +2 gap due to schedule.
- Of the remaining games that can impact the gap, the only possible way to close the 7 win gap is for these 11 games to fall just right for SF.
- If all 11 fall this way, then we end in a SoS tie with SF.

 

Week 16:
CIN beats DET (+1 IND)
BUF beats NE  (+1 IND)
CLE beats CHI (+1 IND)
TB  beats CAR (+0 SF)
DEN beats WSH (+1 IND)
TEN beats LAR (+1 IND)
OAK beats PHI (+0 SF)

 

Week 17:
BUF beats MIA (+1 IND)
CHI beats MIN (+0 SF)
ATL beats CAR (+0 SF)
DEN beats KC  (+1 IND)

 

HOU scenario
It is impossible for HOU to end at 4-12 and have a lower SoS than IND.  Here's why.
- HOU will have a +6 opponent win gap with IND entering week 16 (IND win in week 17).
- HOU can only close the win gap by 4 with IND.  Here's why.
- HOU and IND have almost identical opponents, except
    - In AFC West, IND played DEN and HOU played KC
    - In AFC East, IND played BUF and HOU Played NE in AFC East
    - So, IND could only potentially gain 4 wins on HOU (if DEN/BUF win out, NE/KC lose out).

 

CHI and TB scenarios
- Impossible for these two to win SoS against Colts.  The opponent win% gaps are 16 and 17 respectively.

[Defjamz26]

Hopefully Ballard is doing his work on the elite prospects of this draft, because we are going to be in perfect position to draft one

[Andrew Luck fan club]

1 hour ago, ponyboy said:

 

Week 16:
CIN beats DET (+1 IND)
BUF beats NE  (+1 IND)
CLE beats CHI (+1 IND)
TB  beats CAR (+0 SF)
DEN beats WSH (+1 IND)
TEN beats LAR (+1 IND)
OAK beats PHI (+0 SF)

 

Week 17:
BUF beats MIA (+1 IND)
CHI beats MIN (+0 SF)
ATL beats CAR (+0 SF)
DEN beats KC  (+1 IND)

 

 

So all of this has to happen for the 49ers to pick in front of us?

[Clem-Dog]

Nice analysis Ponyboy.  Stay golden.

[BOTT]

6 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Hopefully Ballard is doing his work on the elite prospects of this draft, because we are going to be in perfect position to draft one

Nah, he will probably be chilling in Cabo till draft day.

[Hoose]

The Colts are locked in at #3. For the first round. If they win next week they will drop down into a rotation of teams with similar records from the second round on down the line. Lose and they are guaranteed no worse than the third pick in each round. 

[dgambill]

This means we should have our pick of the best of any non qb in the draft...huge decision for Ballard. One can only hope at this point we get the #2 and get a huge haul for trading back because we have way way more needs then a rb or pass rusher or OL will fix...we need all three of those minimum.

[ColtsBlitz]

This draft will tell us more about Ballard than last year. With a top 3 pick guaranteed, he can do a number of things and what he does will play into our record. Hopefully Lucks status will be clear by then, if he isn’t already confident of his return since a 2nd surgery won’t be required.

I’m mixed on what we should do at 3. 

Trade back or take Chubb or Barkley are my 3 paths as of right now. 

 

I’m eager to see a healthy Colts team on the field with Luck and a few offseason upgrades. 

[ColtsBlitz]

14 hours ago, BOTT said:

Nah, he will probably be chilling in Cabo till draft day.

One day I want to see a photo of Ballard drinking orange juice in a skybox during the combine. 

[tweezy32]

3 hours ago, ColtsBlitz said:

This draft will tell us more about Ballard than last year. With a top 3 pick guaranteed, he can do a number of things and what he does will play into our record. Hopefully Lucks status will be clear by then, if he isn’t already confident of his return since a 2nd surgery won’t be required.

I’m mixed on what we should do at 3. 

Trade back or take Chubb or Barkley are my 3 paths as of right now. 

 

I’m eager to see a healthy Colts team on the field with Luck and a few offseason upgrades. 

Id try to trade down now matter what depending on the offer of course