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Sucking it up, Colts batting order update (Week 15 edition)

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10 minutes ago, MasterCrief said:

To be fair (and I may have read your comment wrong and this is the point you were trying to make), no one was asking for Hooker like no one was asking for us to take Fournette or Garrett. It wasn't that people didn't want him, it was that no one thought he would possibly be there when we picked.

fournette was brought up quite a bit though, and so were some others that were not really expected to be there

 

as for barkley, he would not be my first pick but i could live with it.  id like to see us go defense 

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1 minute ago, aaron11 said:

fournette was brought up quite a bit though, and so were some others that were not really expected to be there

 

as for barkley, he would not be my first pick but i could live with it.  id like to see us go defense 

I would be happy with Nelson

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1 minute ago, aaron11 said:

fournette was brought up quite a bit though, and so were some others that were not really expected to be there

 

as for barkley, he would not be my first pick but i could live with it.  id like to see us go defense 

Why do you want defense?   You like watching us get asked 50+ times a yr?

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I would be happy with Nelson

id be fine with that.  third sounds a bit high for a guard but we have given up way too many sacks obviously and we need to protect luck when he gets back

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2 minutes ago, Coltfreak said:

Why do you want defense?   You like watching us get asked 50+ times a yr?

the defense needs a good player too, and i think we will go after Oline in free agency

 

we have a lot of money to spend, i would over pay if thats what it takes

 

in general i try not to pigeon hole positions in any draft because that usually leads to disappointment.  

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3 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

id be fine with that.  third sounds a bit high for a guard but we have given up way too many sacks obviously and we need to protect luck when he gets back

Yeah I am sick of the sacks. I think the combo of Kelly and Nelson would be sweet.

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The Giants matriculated the ball down the field, and the attempted field goal was blocked.

 

With 11 minutes and 26 seconds to go, Giants trail the Eagles 29 to 31. 

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2 hours ago, csmopar said:

Problem is..... you gotta find a partner to trade with and really, there's not many players if any worth trading up for. 

The Bears traded up for Trubisky... so anything’s possible. 

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I think "realistically" the Colts are picking anywhere from #2 to #5. 

 

I do think the Giants will win another game, so if we lose out then I believe we will be awarded the #2 pick. 

 

If we beat Houston in the finale, then I believe we have the #5 pick. 

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The Eagles add another field goal and increase their lead, 34 to 29 over the Giants.

 

Three minutes and 56 seconds left to go in the game.

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Well, Maybe the Giants can win one of their last two.  At least there playing hard.  Looks like the Texans have mailed it in which means we could very well win the last game anyway and we are back with the 3rd. pick.

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If we picked 5th, taking Nelson at 5 makes much sense IMO. I would imagine Barkley will go Top 4 and 1 of the QB's will be gone anyway. Assuming Luck comes back 100%, Nelson just adds to building a wall up front with Kelly.

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We are at the two-minute warning and the Giants have moved the ball to the Eagles 22 yard line.

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The Giants have the ball, second and goal from the 11 yard line with 58 seconds left to play.

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This game is going to come down to the final play. It's fourth-down on the 6 yard line.

 

Edit: False start giants.

 

It's now forth and goal from the 11 yard line.

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Giants lose on a fourth-down incomplete pass. Add to insult, unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yard penalty.

 

The Giants are who we thought they were! :D 

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2 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

Giants lose on a fourth-down incomplete pass. Add to insult, unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yard penalty.

 

The Giants are who we thought they were! :D 

No biggy, we will take Nelson at #5 and build the wall with he and Kelly.

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22 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

No biggy, we will take Nelson at #5 and build the wall with he and Kelly.

 

I believe at worst the Colts are picking number five overall, and I think that's if we win our final game. If we lose out, then we will either pick second or third. I think the Giants could win another game.

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Staying in the 3 spot is sitting pretty for trades.....it's well known that the Giants and Browns will take a QB so for every other QB thirsty team out there will want our spot.....

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Now that Titans have lost.....If I am not mistaken If Jacksonville beats SF next week they clinch division.

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A loss at Baltimore assures us of pick 1.3. We get to 1.2 if Giants beat AZ and we lose to Houston. 

 

That said , very likely we beat Houston and Pick at number 3. We win the tiebreaker vs SF , Chic , TB and Houston. The only win it looks like those 4 teams could have is Houston vs Us or Chicago could beat Cleveland. If They all finish at 4-12 , we would pick 7th in round 2 and I "think" 6th in round 3. 

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3 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I believe at worst the Colts are picking number five overall, and I think that's if we win our final game. If we lose out, then we will either pick second or third. I think the Giants could win another game.

 

 

Loss at Balt clinches picking no lower than 3rd.

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6 hours ago, Smonroe said:

 

You didn’t answer my question.  Why would a team worry about us taking a QB, assuming we had the 2.   

lucks status is uncertain

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7 minutes ago, dw49 said:

 

 

Loss at Balt clinches picking no lower than 3rd.

 

The unexpected 49ers win in the late afternoon window changed a lot of things. That game had just started when I wrote my reply 3 hours ago. 

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23 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

The unexpected 49ers win in the late afternoon window changed a lot of things. That game had just started when I wrote my reply 3 hours ago. 

 

It changed I believe just one thing. If SF losses it last 2 and good chance they will , they finish with 4 wins instead of 3. If we lose at Baltimore it would mean we finish with 3 or 4 wins. In either event , we pick ahead of SF. I'm pretty sure that's the only thin it changed. Coming into today , we could pick no lower than 4th as long as we lost to Balt. 

 

Believe it or not , it wasn't so unexpected. Vegas had SF favored by 1.5.

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9 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

Updated to reflect the results of the early games.

 

The Indianapolis Colts will finish week 15 batting 3rd in the 2018 NFL Draft.

 

Unfortunately, a 5-11 record is the best the Colts can boast in 2017. Therefore, the worst draft pick the Colts can finish with is #10 (changed from #11 after Redskins win). The Colts are out-of-the-running for the #1 overall pick. Cleveland's loss today eliminated the Colts from any chance of picking first in 2018. However, it's still very possible for the Colts to end up with the #2 overall pick.

 

Indianapolis Colts:

Week 16: Colts at Ravens

Week 17 Texans at Colts

 

New York Giants:

Week 16: Giants at Cardinals

Week 17: Redskins at Giants

 

Cleveland Browns:

Week 16: Browns at Bears

Week 17: Browns at Steelers

 

If the Colts split the last two games, and finish the season at 4-12, then the worst draft pick the Colts could end up with is #7. That said, if the Colts finish with a 4-12 record then realistically they would earn the #5 pick.

 

UPDATE: Giants lose to Eagles 29 to 34, and retain the #2 overall pick. 

Only 1 game can possibly influence the Colts draft status in week 15. The New York Giants are hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. While it’s not likely the Giants will pull off the upset, last week the Eagles lost their starting quarterback for the season. The Eagles also have the division wrapped up, so as the game goes on then maybe they decide to sit players, and get their backups some work. This is also the NFC East we are talking about, and those divisional games are never a given. These dynamics strengthen the possibility of a Giants win from “not a snowballs chance” to “anything is possible”.

 

As we all know our Colts have already lost this week (on Thursday) to the Denver Broncos. There is no danger of any (week 15) outcome costing the Colts the #3 draft spot. San Francisco (the only other 3-win team), will finish the day with a better strength of schedule than the Colts (.493). The 49ers play the 8-5 Tennessee Titans. Consequently, the 49ers (.514) strength of schedule is going to become stronger (not weaker).

 

Games of note for Week 15:

Ravens at Browns

Eagles at Giants

Titans at 49ers

Texans at Jaguars

Falcons at Buccaneers (Monday)

Bengals at Vikings

Jets at Saints

Cardinals at Redskins

 

Current Sucking It Up Standings:

 
PICK TEAM WINS LOSSES GAMES WIN% SOS
1
Cleveland
0 14 14 0.000 0.520
2
NY Giants
2 12 14 0.143 0.525
3
Indianapolis
3 11 14 0.214 0.491
4
San Francisco
3 10 13 0.231 0.514
5
Houston (CLE)
4 10 14 0.286 0.507
6
Chicago
4 10 14 0.286 0.559
7
Tampa Bay
4 9 13 0.308 0.557
8
Cincinnati
5 9 14 0.357 0.480
9
Denver
5 9 14 0.357 0.482
10
NY Jets
5 9 14 0.357 0.530

 

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You did a nice job of research but I don't think you realized that there is no way the Colts can lose the SOS tiebreaker with ANY of the teams with 4 or less wins. 

 

So when you wrote this , the lowest we could pick with a loss at Balt was 4th and not 7th.

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50 minutes ago, dw49 said:

You did a nice job of research but I don't think you realized that there is no way the Colts can lose the SOS tiebreaker with ANY of the teams with 4 or less wins. 

 

So when you wrote this , the lowest we could pick with a loss at Balt was 4th and not 7th.

 

Thanks. 

 

I post the SOS in all my threads about draft picks. 

 

It is (was) possible (not likey) that every team that played these 4-win teams could lose out (or close to it), and the teams we have played could win out (or close to it), and drastically change the SOS. With 1 more week in the books and only 2 more to go, it gets less possible. 

 

When I wrote the thread, it was accurate. A lot changes in a football Sunday. 

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47 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Thanks. 

 

It it is (was) possible (not likey) that every team that played these 4-win teams could lose out (or close to it), and the teams we have played could win out (or close to it), and drastically change the SOS. With 1 more week in the books and only 2 more to go, it gets less possible. 

 

When I wrote the thread, it was accurate. A lot changes in a football Sunday. 

 

Not so make a huge issue but it could have never happened. SF and Houston would for sure have been mathematically impossible .

 

I'd say the same for TB and Chicago also as their SOS is way , way higher than our .559 to .487. Plus you have teams playing each other . Tenn vs Jack . Pitt vs Houston  Jack vs SF .   Things like Chicago losing to Minn just makes it impossible for the  SOS to change that drastically.

 

Your original thread really wasn't accurate as you said we could finish as low as 7th with 4 losses and that  was not mathematically possible. 

 

Actually Im wrong on SF as they could have ended the season with 3 wins as you posted before they won, So my bad on SF.

 

 

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