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Luck perhaps a LONG way off....


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3 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

When did he really start understanding it a high level? Maybe when he was 13? So that gives him 5 extra years ahead of others to understand the business. However, I would still bet he didn't get a coaching gig of some kind until he was 18, maybe in the college level. You can only start so early, and the advantage is really minimal, even with family bloodlines. 

 

Family ties into the game are still a huge leg up in terms of introductions and getting access to the sausage factory process that most “armchair” fans wouldn’t get initially.

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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

I’d love to hear about these strategies if your talking about playing house games, there’s literally one (legal) viable strategy and even this is being slowly taken out the equation. 

 

As for the rest of this back and forth.. if you’re going to make big bold statements along the lines of being as good a talent evaluator as some active GMs you have to be prepared to defend that statement with some proof, not just acting insulted because someone has questioned it.

 

In the nicest way, you get hung up on things sometimes. Take a breath, re-examine the comments, and try explaining with examples. 

 

 

Mostly blackjack and texas hold em, card counting for one, people for the most part don't know what they're doing and just randomly play. The other is using the tight is right philosophy in texas hold em. That will absolutely get you killed in today's poker world unless you have incredible luck with your starting hands in the fact that's there's enough playable hands where you can positively build up your stack. This is tournament poker, of course, but if you are too tight these days, you become readable, and you will get bluffed repeatedly off hands until you adjust. Cash games, a tight game will work better, but if you can't force people to fold, then you will get outdrawn by straights and flushes a lot and lose a lot of money, so you have to mix some suited cards, connected cards, and suited connector cards in as well to stay balanced and remain unpredictable.

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6 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Family ties into the game are still a huge leg up in terms of introductions and getting access to the sausage factory process that most “armchair” fans wouldn’t get initially.

I agree it'll allow him to coach earlier than an armchair GM, but it doesn't mean armchair GM's can't make it, it simply means they have a harder road and have to prove themselves more before getting that opportunity to make it, so best case scenario, someone like me who is 18 could become a coach or GM when they are 35.

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Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

Mostly blackjack and texas hold em, card counting for one, people for the most part don't know what they're doing and just randomly play. The other is using the tight is right philosophy in texas hold em. That will absolutely get you killed in today's poker world unless you have incredible luck with your starting hands in the fact that's there's enough playable hands where you can positively build up your stack. This is tournament poker, of course, but if you are too tight these days, you become readable, and you will get bluffed repeatedly off hands until you adjust. Cash games, a tight game will work better, but if you can't force people to fold, then you will get outdrawn by straights and flushes a lot and lose a lot of money, so you have to mix some suited cards, connected cards, and suited connector cards in as well to stay balanced and remain unpredictable.

 

Poker is not a “casino” game really and yes there are a myriad of strategies for playing that over time will prove more effective. The point is you’re playing people not the house 

 

Card counting on BJ solo.. is dumb. You stand out a mile with sudden raises/drops in bet sizes, especially when the dealer knows the count himself. Of course this lead to the creation of the team play idea but even that has limited shelf life and shuffling machines are killing that too. 

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Just now, SteelCityColt said:

 

Poker is not a “casino” game really and yes there are a myriad of strategies for playing that over time will prove more effective. The point is you’re playing people not the house 

 

Card counting on BJ solo.. is dumb. You stand out a mile with sudden raises/drops in bet sizes, especially when the dealer knows the count himself. Of course this lead to the creation of the team play idea but even that has limited shelf life and shuffling machines are killing that too. 

Card counting solo is only stupid if you get greedy. If your bet ranges go from $5-$100, you'll immediately stand out. If you use a very simple system like betting $5-$10 depending on the count or even $5-$15, you won't get caught. I make a $100-$200 playing blackjack every time I go to the casino and use it to fund poker. You just have to not make it obvious and have patience to build up your bankroll slowly. You also have to be able to chat with people and not make it obvious you're doing it.

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On 10/7/2017 at 8:32 PM, Jared Cisneros said:

I don't necessarily think my opinion is better than yours, but I think it holds more water when talking about the draft. I do my due diligence every year to study who we should take. I've hit on more picks than Grigson has gotten close too, and I have far less technology than him. That's why I think armchair GM's can be successful, if they have the opportunity and the technology. Unfortunately, most don't get that. 

 

how do you know the people you're talking to on here haven't done the same amount of due diligence that you have?  Sorry to burst your bubble, but you are the only one who believes that your opinion holds more water than anyone else's on here.

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8 minutes ago, J@son said:

 

how do you know the people you're talking to on here haven't done the same amount of due diligence that you have?  Sorry to burst your bubble, but you are the only one who believes that your opinion holds more water than anyone else's on here.

I can tell who puts in work by who posts on the draft here. There's no reason not to participate in the draft discussion if you are knowledgeable about it, and I don't believe someone on the Colts forum puts in a lot of work, but doesn't want to discuss it with us. That goes against logic. Even fans with basic knowledge of the players ask questions and try to learn, so someone who is as good as me isn't going to just sit on the sidelines. They'll discuss it at the very least.

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33 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Card counting solo is only stupid if you get greedy. If your bet ranges go from $5-$100, you'll immediately stand out. If you use a very simple system like betting $5-$10 depending on the count or even $5-$15, you won't get caught. I make a $100-$200 playing blackjack every time I go to the casino and use it to fund poker. You just have to not make it obvious and have patience to build up your bankroll slowly. You also have to be able to chat with people and not make it obvious you're doing it.

 

How long exactly does it take to make your $100-$200 dollars on that bet size variance? 

 

 

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1 minute ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

How long exactly does it take to make your $100-$200 dollars on that bet size variance? 

 

 

2 to 3 hours. There's also something called the "bust bonus" on our table though where you can make an additional bet that the dealer will bust after you stand on whatever hand you have and see their face up card. If they bust, you get paid 1 to 1 or better, and if it's a suited bust (the dealer busts and it's all the same suit), then you get paid anywhere from 3 to 1 to 50 to 1 (if it's an ace). That tends to speed up the process slightly, especially if the dealer has 2 through 6 a lot. If I hit one suited bust bonus, I'll usually make $200 on the day, without it, I'll make $100-$150. 

 

Of course, if your table is basic, I'd add an hour to that and say probably 3-4 hours. You just have to play extremely safe and keep track of the count. If you ever get up $200 at one point, just walk away. As long as your bets are from the $5-$15 range, you'll be fine. You may have an occasional $30 bet on a double down or split, but that's fine if you have the odds on your side. I've personally only lost twice in 20 months doing this, so it should work well for you. Just know when to walk away, and don't be afraid to walk if a deck has a horrible count and you are up $100. Sometimes, that's better than being at a major disadvantage just to have a seat. Profit is Profit.

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3 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

2 to 3 hours. There's also something called the "bust bonus" on our table though where you can make an additional bet that the dealer will bust after you stand on whatever hand you have and see their face up card. If they bust, you get paid 1 to 1 or better, and if it's a suited bust (the dealer busts and it's all the same suit), then you get paid anywhere from 3 to 1 to 50 to 1 (if it's an ace). That tends to speed up the process slightly, especially if the dealer has 2 through 6 a lot. If I hit one suited bust bonus, I'll usually make $200 on the day, without it, I'll make $100-$150. 

 

Of course, if your table is basic, I'd add an hour to that and say probably 3-4 hours. You just have to play extremely safe and keep track of the count. If you ever get up $200 at one point, just walk away. As long as your bets are from the $5-$15 range, you'll be fine. You may have an occasional $30 bet on a double down or split, but that's fine if you have the odds on your side. I've personally only lost twice in 20 months doing this, so it should work well for you. Just know when to walk away, and don't be afraid to walk if a deck has a horrible count and you are up $100. Sometimes, that's better than being at a major disadvantage just to have a seat. Profit is Profit.

 

Just out of interest do you know the mathematical advantage of card counting? As in the edge it gives the player?

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20 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Just out of interest do you know the mathematical advantage of card counting? As in the edge it gives the player?

Perfect Basic Strategy lowers the house edge to 1/2 of 1%. Card Counting will give you a slight advantage, but it varies by the rules of the table (for example, does the dealer hit or stand on soft 17, can you surrender? etc...). Team play can put the advantage in the players favor because of the larger bets, but you're likely to get kicked out over time. You'll never get kicked out my way. Just make sure to know basic strategy 100% and you'll be fine. Also, watch out for the automatic shuffling machines, you can't count against them. It'll also take a long time before consistent results come in, you can lose over the short term, but you'll win in the long term over hundreds of hours. Hopefully you get good, consistent results.

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9 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Perfect Basic Strategy lowers the house edge to 1/2 of 1%. Card Counting will give you a slight advantage, but it varies by the rules of the table (for example, does the dealer hit or stand on 17, can you surrender? etc...). Team play can put the advantage in the players favor because of the larger bets, but you're likely to get kicked out over time. You'll never get kicked out my way. Just make sure to know basic strategy 100% and you'll be fine. Also, watch out for the automatic shuffling machines, you can't count against them. It'll also take a long time before consistent results come in, you can lose over the short term, but you'll win in the long term over hundreds of hours. Hopefully you get good, consistent results.

 

Card counting moves you to around 1% on your favour... why I questioned your ROI/hourly rate. 

 

I’m well aware you can’t count against auto shufflers, why I referenced them becoming more prevalent in the industry.

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3 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Card counting moves you to around 1% on your favour... why I questioned your ROI/hourly rate. 

 

I’m well aware you can’t count against auto shufflers, why I referenced them becoming more prevalent in the industry.

Yeah, the bust bonus at my table gives me more chance at a profit because of the huge gains you can make with one hand, and that'll probably shave an hour off how long I have to play on average. There's no guarantees though, and at a basic table, It's more of a grind. One mistake can cost you major money. 

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1 hour ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I can tell who puts in work by who posts on the draft here. There's no reason not to participate in the draft discussion if you are knowledgeable about it, and I don't believe someone on the Colts forum puts in a lot of work, but doesn't want to discuss it with us. That goes against logic. Even fans with basic knowledge of the players ask questions and try to learn, so someone who is as good as me isn't going to just sit on the sidelines. They'll discuss it at the very least.

 

that's an incorrect assumption on your part.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 10/6/2017 at 11:32 AM, Pacergeek said:

There are other ways to give your team the best chance of losing games besides telling your players to quit. One is by having a bad head coach continuing to coach the team.

Like not challenging a fumble and touchback on Jax first drive of the game? lol, sorry but i stick with what I saw, receiver went to reach for goal line fumbled in the process, ball went over pylon and out of bounds which should have been a touch back, Jax knew it was which is why they hurried up, and pagano just stood there. but whatever i guess......he will be gone after the season I'm sure. 

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