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Weekly 2018 NFL draft order


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After week 4

Drop a like if you're interested in seeing this list updated weekly.  If there's no interest I'll let the thread die.

 

Until all bye weeks are done in week 11, it'll be difficult to show the current order with some teams having played 1 less game than others, but I think it's still interesting to see where things stand week to week with the bottom teams.  I'm calculating the strength of schedule by including the records of future opponents in addition to the completed opponents.  The calculations are my own and it's possible I made a mistake. 

 

Teams 0-4

CLE  0.4688
SF    0.5079
LAC  0.5500
NYG 0.5667
 

Teams 1-3
IND   0.4833
CIN   0.4853
CHI   0.5556

 

*WAS, KC, TB, MIA have only played 3 games so far.  MIA is the only one of these teams with 2 loses

 

I still hope the Colts can make a run for the AFC South, but I use this list to root for the teams that are behind us to keep pace (or leap frog us) in draft position in case thing aren't working out in the division.

 

Week 5 matchups

NYJ at CLE (go Browns!, although NYJ will likely be in top 10 draft position at year end.. so another win by Jets not too bad here)

SF at IND (go Colts!)

LAC at NYG (one will get a first win, one will remain winless)

BUF at CIN (go Bengals!  Although another BUF win not too bad here as far as draft positions go)

MIN at CHI (go Bears!)

TEN at MIA (go Fins!, for AFC South loss and bumping MIA up in draft position)

 

JAC at PIT (go PIT, for AFC South loss)

KC at HOU (go KC, for AFC South loss)

NE at TB (go TB, just because it's the Pats)

 

 

 

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I want all the QB needy teams to finish bad. The Jets, 49ers, Cardinals, and others should finish in the top 5. Hopefully there's a sweepstakes's for Darnold, Rosen, and whatever other QB (Allen, Rudolph) gets a round 1 grade. Colts need help across the board at every position except QB and P/K.

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Ballard deserves to start fresh with this team by bringing in a bunch of his own guys via the draft so I hope he gets that chance by landing a top 5 pick, and getting a kings ransom from a QB needy team wanting to trade up. Then watch Ballard do his magic and really turn this team around with a little help from his new and hopefully much improved coaching staff. 

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21 hours ago, BProland85 said:

Ballard deserves to start fresh with this team by bringing in a bunch of his own guys via the draft so I hope he gets that chance by landing a top 5 pick, and getting a kings ransom from a QB needy team wanting to trade up. Then watch Ballard do his magic and really turn this team around with a little help from his new and hopefully much improved coaching staff. 

 

I hate to tank the season but you might be right.  With all the QB's in the draft, getting a top 5 pick and trading it away for more picks might be the best thing in the long run.  

 

But I will say that the Colts have a ton of cap space (the most in the NFL) after this season and only Mewhort is really a must re-sign.  So Ballard will be able to put a big stamp on the team via free agency.  

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5 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

I hate to tank the season but you might be right.  With all the QB's in the draft, getting a top 5 pick and trading it away for more picks might be the best thing in the long run.  

 

But I will say that the Colts have a ton of cap space (the most in the NFL) after this season and only Mewhort is really a must re-sign.  So Ballard will be able to put a big stamp on the team via free agency.  

This isn't the year to have a top 5 pick unless you need a QB or Barkley. The Colts could do fine picking on between 8-15. There isn't a Myles Garett or Joey Bosa on defense this year. Think about it, who else is a top 5, can't miss player besides Rosen, Darnold, Williams, and Barkley? 

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12 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

This isn't the year to have a top 5 pick unless you need a QB or Barkley. The Colts could do fine picking on between 8-15. There isn't a Myles Garett or Joey Bosa on defense this year. Think about it, who else is a top 5, can't miss player besides Rosen, Darnold, Williams, and Barkley? 

 

But if you need a lot of help -- and the Colts do -- then having a top-5 pick would be good.

 

We could trade back and collect more picks.     That's a good thing.

 

We might even trade back more than once.      That's a good thing too.

 

I agree this year's draft is not nearly as good as last year's....    but I think we're showing that the Colts have lots and lots of needs.

 

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29 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

But if you need a lot of help -- and the Colts do -- then having a top-5 pick would be good.

 

We could trade back and collect more picks.     That's a good thing.

 

We might even trade back more than once.      That's a good thing too.

 

I agree this year's draft is not nearly as good as last year's....    but I think we're showing that the Colts have lots and lots of needs.

 

That's a good point. Everyone criticized the Browns for the strategy, but if you can be good at nailing picks, trading down has its benefits. Especially when you have needs across the board. I wouldn't have trusted Grigson to do it, but Ballard is a guy who I trust to maximize picks. 

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16 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

That's a good point. Everyone criticized the Browns for the strategy, but if you can be good at nailing picks, trading down has its benefits. Especially when you have needs across the board. I wouldn't have trusted Grigson to do it, but Ballard is a guy who I trust to maximize picks. 

 

That was my entire point was we could trade it away for more picks.  Both for 2018 and 2019 drafts.

 

And also the reason people have been critical of the Browns for this strategy is that they've done it despite the fact that they don't have a QB.  

 

For example in the 2016 draft they traded away the #2 pick.  The Eagles took Carson Wentz with the #2 pick.  So far he's looked a decent QB.

 

In 2017 they traded away the #12 pick which Houston used to take Watson.  With a limited sample size Watson has looked good.

 

So the criticism of the Browns is legitimate, but that same criticism couldn't and wouldn't be leveled at the Colts since we already have Luck and just need to build talent around him.  

 

**Also I think there is a pass rusher by the name of Arden Key.  Given the severity at which the Colts need a high level pass rusher, it might actually be wiser to take him if available.**  

 

 

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23 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

That was my entire point was we could trade it away for more picks.  Both for 2018 and 2019 drafts.

 

And also the reason people have been critical of the Browns for this strategy is that they've done it despite the fact that they don't have a QB.  

 

For example in the 2016 draft they traded away the #2 pick.  The Eagles took Carson Wentz with the #2 pick.  So far he's looked a decent QB.

 

In 2017 they traded away the #12 pick which Houston used to take Watson.  With a limited sample size Watson has looked good.

 

So the criticism of the Browns is legitimate, but that same criticism couldn't and wouldn't be leveled at the Colts since we already have Luck and just need to build talent around him.  

 

**Also I think there is a pass rusher by the name of Arden Key.  Given the severity at which the Colts need a high level pass rusher, it might actually be wiser to take him if available.**  

 

 

 

I'm not as high on Arden Key as others. I like Harold Landry much more. If we took a pass rusher round 1, I would hope it would be Landry. My top 2 choices would be Landry or Connor Williams round 1, preferably after a trade down to acquire more draft picks. 

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On 10/4/2017 at 11:01 AM, Valpo2004 said:

 

That was my entire point was we could trade it away for more picks.  Both for 2018 and 2019 drafts.

 

And also the reason people have been critical of the Browns for this strategy is that they've done it despite the fact that they don't have a QB.  

 

For example in the 2016 draft they traded away the #2 pick.  The Eagles took Carson Wentz with the #2 pick.  So far he's looked a decent QB.

 

In 2017 they traded away the #12 pick which Houston used to take Watson.  With a limited sample size Watson has looked good.

 

So the criticism of the Browns is legitimate, but that same criticism couldn't and wouldn't be leveled at the Colts since we already have Luck and just need to build talent around him.  

 

**Also I think there is a pass rusher by the name of Arden Key.  Given the severity at which the Colts need a high level pass rusher, it might actually be wiser to take him if available.**  

 

 

Arden Key has disappointed this season so far. I also think Landry is way better.

 

 I think Williams will be long gone before we pick. The only guy I'm taking and not trading down for is Derwin James. I think Geathers is done, and while Farley has been a pleasant surprise, James is more versatile with higher upside.

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9 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Arden Key has disappointed this season so far. I also think Landry is way better.

 

 I think Williams will be long gone before we pick. The only guy I'm taking and not trading down for is Derwin James. I think Geathers is done, and while Farley has been a pleasant surprise, James is more versatile with higher upside.

 

I like James, but I feel there are much bigger needs than S right now. Farley is at least serviceable and having Hooker back there will only make him better. 

 

OT and pass rush are BY FAR the biggest needs on this team right now in my opinion. Then if Davis is not brought back at corner, CB becomes a need also. And I would even throw WR as a potential need with Hilton as the only proven WR that can stay somewhat healthy. Hopefully Rogers shows something soon. 

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On 10/4/2017 at 12:43 AM, NewColtsFan said:

 

But if you need a lot of help -- and the Colts do -- then having a top-5 pick would be good.

 

We could trade back and collect more picks.     That's a good thing.

 

We might even trade back more than once.      That's a good thing too.

 

I agree this year's draft is not nearly as good as last year's....    but I think we're showing that the Colts have lots and lots of needs.

 

In a weird way it again is good at some positions we need help - OT/OG and RB. There are some nice safeties too... I've been a bit disappointed by the passrushers that came into the year as favorites to go in the top 10(Harold Landry and Arden Key). At this point I think it's very possible neither of them goes anywhere close to top 10. I wonder where the elite pass-rushers will come from... Okoronkwo from Oklahoma is pretty good IMO, not sure he's top 10 level. Same with Bradley Chubb and Dorance Armstrong Jr. Can some of the Georgia guys(Bellamy or Lorenzo Carter) jump through amazing combine performance? I'm not sure... I guess... I don't have an EDGE guy i'm in love with right now to the point where I'd want to draft him top 10.

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Just now, stitches said:

In a weird way it again is good at some positions we need help - OT/OG and RB. There are some nice safeties too... I've been a bit disappointed by the passrushers that came into the year as favorites to go in the top 10(Harold Landry and Arden Key). At this point I think it's very possible neither of them goes anywhere close to top 10. I wonder where the elite pass-rushers will come from... Okoronkwo from Oklahoma is pretty good IMO, not sure he's top 10 level. Same with Bradley Chubb and Dorance Armstrong Jr. Can some of the Georgia guys(Bellamy or Lorenzo Carter) jump through amazing combine performance? I'm not sure... I guess... I don't have an EDGE guy i'm in love with right now to the point where I'd want to draft him top 10.

 

The strength of the draft appears to be offense.      QB, RB and WR.    The O-line appears to be good,  but I wouldn't call it great by any stretch.     It's certainly a better O-line crop than last year,  but that's not hard to do.

 

The defensive talent appears to be no better than average.    A few good positions, and a few not so great.    I'm concerned about depth.     I don't think there will be much beyond R3.     That's disappointing because the Colts will need more defense for 2-3 more drafts.

 

We have lots and lots and lots of building still to do....    the Grigson years set us back badly.

 

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54 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

The strength of the draft appears to be offense.      QB, RB and WR.    The O-line appears to be good,  but I wouldn't call it great by any stretch.     It's certainly a better O-line crop than last year,  but that's not hard to do.

 

The defensive talent appears to be no better than average.    A few good positions, and a few not so great.    I'm concerned about depth.     I don't think there will be much beyond R3.     That's disappointing because the Colts will need more defense for 2-3 more drafts.

 

We have lots and lots and lots of building still to do....    the Grigson years set us back badly.

 

The one deep position on defense is LB. I'm not sure how many first rounders I see though. With the emergence of Hairston, Wilson, and Melvin, we should look to FA for CB help. We should looks at LB in the draft. Just like this past draft was the year to get a CB, this is the one to finally get a LB.

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2 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

The one deep position on defense is LB. I'm not sure how many first rounders I see though. With the emergence of Hairston, Wilson, and Melvin, we should look to FA for CB help. We should looks at LB in the draft. Just like this past draft was the year to get a CB, this is the one to finally get a LB.

 

Or a dominant OT. Indy desperately needs help there also. But I wouldn't be upset if Landry was ultimately the Colts 1st round pick. 

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9 hours ago, stitches said:

I don't have an EDGE guy i'm in love with right now to the point where I'd want to draft him top 10.

 

I feel the same way.  Sucks because we really need one.  If we ran a 4-3 I'd have no problem with Chubb though,

 

I'm actually not in love with any of the top tackle prospects either.  If we go OL I wouldn't mind Quenton Nelson one bit (if we're picking in the 10-15 range like I expect).  Our interior would be looking really good with him in the mix.

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12 hours ago, BProland85 said:

 

Or a dominant OT. Indy desperately needs help there also. But I wouldn't be upset if Landry was ultimately the Colts 1st round pick. 

OT/OG can come later. Only lineman I think anyone is in love with is Williams and he'll be gone unless we get a top 5 pick. 

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9 hours ago, bananabucket said:

 

I feel the same way.  Sucks because we really need one.  If we ran a 4-3 I'd have no problem with Chubb though,

 

I'm actually not in love with any of the top tackle prospects either.  If we go OL I wouldn't mind Quenton Nelson one bit (if we're picking in the 10-15 range like I expect).  Our interior would be looking really good with him in the mix.

I just watched a full game of Bradley Chubb for the first time... we might have something there. I don't know if you've seen him. He came into this season as a more of a run stopper EDGE defender, but he seems to be developing a very good pass-rush game. He seems explosive and quick and he has nasty bend... Here's example from the game vs Louisville:

 

 

They were dropping him in coverage and he did well there, He also covered a split RB on a WR route which was very impressive. He also blocked a kick... He just kept making play after play after play. He does it all and does most of it very well...

 

I'm still not sure he's top 10 and will have to watch more of him, but he's probably been the most impressive one I've seen this year. 

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3 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

OT/OG can come later. Only lineman I think anyone is in love with is Williams and he'll be gone unless we get a top 5 pick. 

I love Williams as LT and Quenton Nelson as a guard. I wouldn't mind drafting either with a first round pick. That should tell you how impressive I thought Nelson was in the two games I watched because I'm usually not too keen on drafting interior O-linemen in the first.

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1 hour ago, stitches said:

I love Williams as LT and Quenton Nelson as a guard. I wouldn't mind drafting either with a first round pick. That should tell you how impressive I thought Nelson was in the two games I watched because I'm usually not too keen on drafting interior O-linemen in the first.

I wouldn't take a guard in the first round unless we're drafting in the 20s. Much like Lamp last year, he may be the best guard in this class, but I think he'll be there in round 2. Round 1, I'm going OT

 

3 hours ago, BProland85 said:

 

I feel like McGlinchey from Notre Dame will be drafted before Williams at OT. 

Perhaps due to injury. They might both go high. I'd love if one fell to us. I actually forgot about McGlinchey. He could've been a 1st rounder last year. I heard one of Georgia's LBs beat him with a speed rush in their game though. Hope that's not a consistent thing.

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On 10/6/2017 at 1:05 PM, Defjamz26 said:

I wouldn't take a guard in the first round unless we're drafting in the 20s. Much like Lamp last year, he may be the best guard in this class, but I think he'll be there in round 2. Round 1, I'm going OT

Cowboys are often looked at for their line.  Starters include, Tyron Smith 1st round LT, Travis Frederick 1st round C, Zach Martin 1st round G, La'el Collins UDFA but undoubtedly was a 1st round prospect!  Drafting any line position in the 1st is very worth while regardless of position.  Kelly is our proof of this.  We have a bad line so why refrain from drafting this spot if the guy is rated in the draft slot?

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On 10/6/2017 at 10:23 AM, stitches said:

I love Williams as LT and Quenton Nelson as a guard. I wouldn't mind drafting either with a first round pick. That should tell you how impressive I thought Nelson was in the two games I watched because I'm usually not too keen on drafting interior O-linemen in the first.

 

Man, I would love it if Ballard was able to draft Connor Williams round 1, then somehow land Nelson early round 2 since OGs usually don't go round 1 unless they are absolutely elite. Talk about fortifying your OL immediately and possibly making them into one of the league's better units. 

 

I do see Ballard really focusing in on the OL in the offseason though. Kelly, Haeg, and Mewhort (if he can stay healthy) are the only guys I like up front. I think Connor Williams is best suited at RT so could a potential longterm LT also be found or would Ballard stick with Castonzo for another season there?

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2 hours ago, DaColts85 said:

Cowboys are often looked at for their line.  Starters include, Tyron Smith 1st round LT, Travis Frederick 1st round C, Zach Martin 1st round G, La'el Collins UDFA but undoubtedly was a 1st round prospect!  Drafting any line position in the 1st is very worth while regardless of position.  Kelly is our proof of this.  We have a bad line so why refrain from drafting this spot if the guy is rated in the draft slot?

In the same token though, the Rams drafted Greg Robinson #2 Overall a few years ago and he was terrible for them. Matt Khalil from the 2013 draft underwhelmed for the Vikings. There's also Luke Joekel who was the number 2 overall pick, and hasn't lived up to hype. It's not a guarantee that if you draft an OL in the 1st round, that he'll be good.

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1 minute ago, Defjamz26 said:

In the same token though, the Rams drafted Greg Robinson #2 Overall a few years ago and he was terrible for them. Matt Khalil from the 2013 draft underwhelmed for the Vikings. There's also Luke Joekel who was the number 2 overall pick, and hasn't lived up to hype. It's not a guarantee that if you draft an OL in the 1st round, that he'll be good.

It is not a guarantee for any player or position to that matter.  You are drafting someone with the hopes they are solid so I could say the same as you did about a lot of positions.  Plus, your examples are of guys who had a lot of hype behind them and were top 2 picks.  We would be drafting IMO at #10 at the lowest.  

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2 hours ago, DaColts85 said:

It is not a guarantee for any player or position to that matter.  You are drafting someone with the hopes they are solid so I could say the same as you did about a lot of positions.  Plus, your examples are of guys who had a lot of hype behind them and were top 2 picks.  We would be drafting IMO at #10 at the lowest.  

You could by my point was that you can't just automatically assume that a guy will be good because he's drafted in the 1st round. Sure it worked for the Cowboys but there's teams who have good lines with guys from later rounds. You can find good players in any round but the chances are increased in the 1st round. Still BPA over everything though

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After week 5

 

Teams 0-5

SF     0.4810
CLE   0.5000
NYG  0.5263
 

Teams 1-4
LAC   0.5526
CHI    0.5584
 

Teams 2-3
TEN   0.4304
ARI    0.4359
IND    0.4459
CIN    0.4762
DAL   0.5000
OAK  0.5526

 

*DEN, TB, MIA, NO, ATL, WAS all with 4 total games.  All 2 loses or less.

 

Week 6 matchups

BYE: BUF, CIN, DAL, SEA

 

I'll be rooting for the teams at the top of the draft order to win, and for division rivals to lose.

 

CHI vs. BAL (Go Bears)

CLE vs. HOU (Go Browns)

MIA vs. ATL (Go Fins)

NE vs. NYJ (Go Jets)

SF vs. WAS (Go 49ers)

TB vs ARI (one of these teams stays at 2 wins, one improves to 3)

LAR vs JAX (Go Rams)

IND vs TEN (Go Colts)

LAC vs OAK (Go Chargers)

NYG vs DEN (Go Giants)

 

 

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12 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

You could by my point was that you can't just automatically assume that a guy will be good because he's drafted in the 1st round. Sure it worked for the Cowboys but there's teams who have good lines with guys from later rounds. You can find good players in any round but the chances are increased in the 1st round. Still BPA over everything though

Yea I agree with you and yes BPA is the best method.

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After week 6

 

Teams 0-6

CLE    0.5000
SF      0.5217

 

Teams 1-5
NYG   0.5281

 

Teams 2-4
IND     0.4598
CHI     0.5217
LAC    0.5222
OAK    0.5506

 

Teams 2-3
CIN    0.4646
DAL   0.5165
TB     0.5579

 

Week 7 matchups

BYE: DET, HOU

 

KC vs OAK (Go OAK)

JAC vs IND (Go Colts)

TB vs BUF (either)

NYJ vs MIA (either)

ARI vs LAR (Go ARI)

CAR vs CHI (Go Bears)

NO vs GB (Go Saints)

TEN vs CLE (Go CLE)

DAL vs SF (Go SF)

DEN vs LAC (Go Chargers)

CIN vs PIT (Go CIN)

SEA vs NYG (Go Giants)

 

 

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Hoping they just let Luck continue to rest if it looks like they won't make the playoffs anyhow. It would be nice having a top 5 pick while also allowing Brissett to gain experience. Then in 2018, you have a fully healthy Luck, a backup QB with a year's starting experience, 70 plus million in cap space, and a top 5 pick to possibly dangle for QB needy teams wanting to move up.

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After week 7

This is before the Sunday and Monday night games.  Those game will only impact SoS, nothing in the top 6 will change because of the late games.

 

Colts sitting at #4.  I've listed the week 8-10 opponents for the bottom teams.  If Colts lose next week and Luck doesn't return this year, we could be looking at somewhere between #2-#4 pick by years end.  SF and NYG could leap frog Colts (Colts have SoS advantage, NYG vs. SF in week 10).  SF has had some close loses and I don't expect NYG to stay awful all year.  Browns actually played TENN tough today.. #1 not out of the question if the Colts and CLE continue to play like they both did this week.

 

Teams 0-7

CLE   0.5000    MIN, BYE, DET
SF      0.5333    PHI, ARI, NYG

 

Teams 1-6
NYG   0.5300    BYE, LAR, SF
                

Teams 2-5
IND   0.4598    CIN, HOU, PIT
                

Teams 2-4
CIN   0.4649    IND, JAX, TEN
TB    0.5556    CAR, NO,  NYJ
                

Teams 3-4
BAL   0.4579    MIA, TEN, BYE
ARI   0.4660    BYE, SF,  SEA
CHI   0.5000    NO,  BYE, GB
LAC   0.5146    NE,  BYE, JAX
OAK   0.5437    BUF, MIA, BYE
NYJ   0.5446    ATL, BUF, TB

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Didnt want to make a topic about this because I probably wont respond (being honest lol) but buffallo has two picks in the first round thanks to kansas city. If we do get a top four or five pick and both of those teams make the playoffs, which looks likely atm. Would you trade them our really high pick for those two picks and possibly more (a top five pick is at least 1700 points and the two picks might not be enough alone)? 

 

We dont come around this neck of the woods often and honestly i dont want to draft this early for awhile, but we need quantity as well as quality. If we did take the two in the first i would hope we get Quenton Nelson and another steal for a defender.

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A top 3 pick is looking more and more likely, and #1 is still not out of the question with this pathetic group.  The ONLY thing worrying me about the 2018 draft right now is that the QB crop likely coming out looks DEEP.  That is not good news for the Colts' draft leverage.  I'm really hoping one or two guys sorta separate themselves from the pack a little more.  But they could potentially have Brissett and a top QB to play with.

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After week 8

These results are before the Sunday and Monday night games.  The outcome of those games won't change  anything in the top 9 other than some minor SoS values.  DET and DEN could join the ranks of the 3-4 teams depending on the outcome of the late games.

 

Next two opponents are shown  for each team.  SF has both ARI and NYG coming up.  Two winnable games for SF IMO.

 

Note the big SoS advantage Colts have in the top 9 teams --  .4673 vs. next closest at .5000.

 

Teams 0-8
CLE   0.5000  BYE, DET
SF    0.5345  ARI, NYG
                
Teams 1-6
NYG   0.5217  LAR, SF
                
Teams 2-6
IND   0.4673  HOU, PITT
                
Teams 2-5    
TB    0.5645  NO, NYJ
                
Teams 3-5
LAC   0.5086  BYE, JAX
CHI   0.5214  BYE, GB
OAK   0.5431  MIA, BYE
NYJ   0.5470  BUF, TB
                
Teams 3-4
ARI   0.4609  SF, SEA
CIN   0.4677  JAX, TENN
HOU   0.4746  IND, LAR
WASH  0.5299  SEA, MINN
                
Teams 4-4
BAL   0.4444  TENN, BYE

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29 minutes ago, IndyScribe said:

Colts still have the #4 pick. The next stretch of games on the schedule is going to be brutal. They could realistically finish 2-14. Giants will (hopefully) have more wins than the Colts. 49ers and Browns will finish ahead of the Colts. 

Only way I see them winning again is if whoever we play last is locked into the playoffs and resting their starters. The Colts are guaranteed a top 5 pick at this point. Cincinnati was the swing game and they lost it, proving they can only beat winless teams.

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