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Weekly 2018 NFL draft order


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After Week 9

 

Teams 0-9 
#1  SF     0.5573  NYG

 

Teams 0-8    
#2  CLE   0.5000  DET
                
Teams 1-7
#3  NYG   0.5338  SF
                
Teams 2-6
#4  TB    0.5540  NYJ
                
Teams 3-6
#5  IND   0.4769  PITT
                
Teams 3-5    
#6  CIN   0.4604  TENN
#7  HOU   0.4962  LAR
#8  LAC   0.5075  JAX
#9  CHI   0.5076  GB
#10 DEN   0.5111  NE
                
Teams 4-5
#11 BAL   0.4538  BYE
#12 OAK   0.5263  BYE
#13 NYJ   0.5267  TB

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After week 10  (through Sunday afternoon games)


Key games I was watching this week along with Colts.
- LAC had JAX beat and blew it.  LAC win would have helped Colts a lot (all W/L, SoS, and DIV)
- CIN had TEN down to the final minutes.  CIN win would have helped Colts a lot (all W/L, SoS, and DIV)
- TB beat NYJ  TB leap-frogged many teams in draft order due to SoS

 

Key games I'm following next week.
CIN over DEN. (CIN would likly leap frog Colts with lose, but DEN is close too)
LAC over BUF. (LAC could leap frog Colts with loss.  SoS would be close)
CLE over JAX. (Any AFC South lose helps Colts in SoS)
BAL over GB (BAL only 1 game up, SoS is better than Colts)
TB  over MIA (Need to get some distance between Colts and TB).
CHI over DET (Need to get some distance between Colts and CHI).
NYG over KC (Eh, aint gonna happen).

HOU vs ARI -- either way could help Colts. HOU win probably helps more draftwise.


Teams 0-9
#1 CLE   0.5000  JAX

 

Teams 1-9
#2 SF    0.5448  BYE
        
Teams 1-8
#3 NYG   0.5278  KC
        
Teams 3-7
#4 IND   0.4861  BYE
        
Teams 3-6
#5 CIN   0.4641  DEN
#6 LAC   0.4894  BUF
#7 HOU   0.5068  ARI
#8 CHI   0.5379  DET
#9 TB    0.5563  MIA

 

Teams 3-5
#10 DEN   0.4792  CIN (play Sunday Night)
        
Teams 4-6    
#11 NYJ   0.5252  BYE
        
Teams 4-5
#12 BAL   0.4583  GB
#13 ARI   0.4898  HOU
#14 OAK   0.5035  NE
#15 WSH   0.5278  NO
 

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4 hours ago, ponyboy said:

After week 10  (through Sunday afternoon games)


Key games I was watching this week along with Colts.
- LAC had JAX beat and blew it.  LAC win would have helped Colts a lot (all W/L, SoS, and DIV)
- CIN had TEN down to the final minutes.  CIN win would have helped Colts a lot (all W/L, SoS, and DIV)
- TB beat NYJ  TB leap-frogged many teams in draft order due to SoS

 

Key games I'm following next week.
CIN over DEN. (CIN would likly leap frog Colts with lose, but DEN is close too)
LAC over BUF. (LAC could leap frog Colts with loss.  SoS would be close)
CLE over JAX. (Any AFC South lose helps Colts in SoS)
BAL over GB (BAL only 1 game up, SoS is better than Colts)
TB  over MIA (Need to get some distance between Colts and TB).
CHI over DET (Need to get some distance between Colts and CHI).
NYG over KC (Eh, aint gonna happen).

HOU vs ARI -- either way could help Colts. HOU win probably helps more draftwise.


Teams 0-9
#1 CLE   0.5000  JAX

 

Teams 1-9
#2 SF    0.5448  BYE
        
Teams 1-8
#3 NYG   0.5278  KC
        
Teams 3-7
#4 IND   0.4861  BYE
        
Teams 3-6
#5 CIN   0.4641  DEN
#6 LAC   0.4894  BUF
#7 HOU   0.5068  ARI
#8 CHI   0.5379  DET
#9 TB    0.5563  MIA

 

Teams 3-5
#10 DEN   0.4792  CIN (play Sunday Night)
        
Teams 4-6    
#11 NYJ   0.5252  BYE
        
Teams 4-5
#12 BAL   0.4583  GB
#13 ARI   0.4898  HOU
#14 OAK   0.5035  NE
#15 WSH   0.5278  NO
 

Couple of questions since you seem to be a numbers guy?

 

1. What all has to happen for the Colts to be completely eliminated from playoff contention?

 

2. Based on SOS what are the chances the Colts land a top 5 pick? And what are the chances they land a top 10 pick.

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5 hours ago, ponyboy said:

After week 10  (through Sunday afternoon games)


Key games I was watching this week along with Colts.
- LAC had JAX beat and blew it.  LAC win would have helped Colts a lot (all W/L, SoS, and DIV)
- CIN had TEN down to the final minutes.  CIN win would have helped Colts a lot (all W/L, SoS, and DIV)
- TB beat NYJ  TB leap-frogged many teams in draft order due to SoS

 

Key games I'm following next week.
CIN over DEN. (CIN would likly leap frog Colts with lose, but DEN is close too)
LAC over BUF. (LAC could leap frog Colts with loss.  SoS would be close)
CLE over JAX. (Any AFC South lose helps Colts in SoS)
BAL over GB (BAL only 1 game up, SoS is better than Colts)
TB  over MIA (Need to get some distance between Colts and TB).
CHI over DET (Need to get some distance between Colts and CHI).
NYG over KC (Eh, aint gonna happen).

HOU vs ARI -- either way could help Colts. HOU win probably helps more draftwise.


Teams 0-9
#1 CLE   0.5000  JAX

 

Teams 1-9
#2 SF    0.5448  BYE
        
Teams 1-8
#3 NYG   0.5278  KC
        
Teams 3-7
#4 IND   0.4861  BYE
        
Teams 3-6
#5 CIN   0.4641  DEN
#6 LAC   0.4894  BUF
#7 HOU   0.5068  ARI
#8 CHI   0.5379  DET
#9 TB    0.5563  MIA

 

Teams 3-5
#10 DEN   0.4792  CIN (play Sunday Night)
        
Teams 4-6    
#11 NYJ   0.5252  BYE
        
Teams 4-5
#12 BAL   0.4583  GB
#13 ARI   0.4898  HOU
#14 OAK   0.5035  NE
#15 WSH   0.5278  NO
 

 

Week after week you deliver good information!

 

And as an information guy,  I deeply appreciate it.      I know a few others here do too.

 

So,  thanks and keep on bringing it!        :thmup:

 

 

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18 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Couple of questions since you seem to be a numbers guy?

 

1. What all has to happen for the Colts to be completely eliminated from playoff contention?

Not the OP but I will try to lighten the load and field this one for him. 

 

To eliminate us from the division we need 2 losses to the Colts and at least 1 of the following: 

- 5 HOU wins

- TEN beating us week 12 and winning 1 other game OR TEN winning 3 games not against us

- JAX beating us week 13 and winning 1 other game OR JAX winning 3 games not against us. 

Every loss after 2 that the Colts get will decrease the games needed by 1. 

 

To eliminate us from the Wild Card we need 1 Colts loss and 2 of the following (that arent exempt due to them winning their respective divisions):

- 2 wins by PIT or NE (probably div winners so they wont count)

- 3 wins by JAX, TEN, or KC (2/3 are probably div winners so they wont count)

- 4 wins by BUF

- 5 Wins by MIA, BAL, or OAK

- 6 Wins by HOU, LAC, CIN, DEN, or NYJ

Every loss by IND after the next loss will decrease the amount of wins by all these teams by 1. 

 

So as it stands the earliest the Colts can be eliminated from playoffs completely is after our week 13 game vs JAX ( 2 IND Losses, 3 wins by JAX/TEN/BUF, 2 wins by NE). 

 

Hope that makes enough sense. 

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On 11/13/2017 at 12:09 AM, Defjamz26 said:

Couple of questions since you seem to be a numbers guy?

 

2. Based on SOS what are the chances the Colts land a top 5 pick? And what are the chances they land a top 10 pick.

 

It'll be easier to do some analysis in a couple weeks.

 

Colts have favorable SoS against ties with any of TB, CHI, CLE, SF, NYG (and many others).

 

But the real question is how many wins will the Colts end up with.  Based on their performance the past two weeks, and the remaining schedule, I could see the Colts winning 2, 3, or 4 more games -- if Brissett stays healthy.

 

But let's look at the remaining schedules of the teams with the worst records.  If the Colts lose out they are almost a lock for a top 4 pick.  Even if they win up to 2 more games, something in the #5-#9 range I would think.

 

Key remaining schedules:
CIN:   @DEN, CLE,  PIT,  CHI, @MIN, DET,  @BAL
DEN:  CIN,  @OAK, @MIA, NYJ, @IND, @WAS, KC
LAC:   BUF,  @DAL, CLE,  WAS, KC,   NYJ,  OAK
SF:    BYE,  SEA,  @CHI, @HOU, TEN, JAX,  @LAR
NYG:  KC,   @WAS, @OAK, DAL, PHI,  @ARI, WAS
CLE:  JAX,  @CIN, @LAC, GB,  BAL,  @CHI, @PIT
IND:   BYE,  TEN,  @JAX, @BUF, DEN, @BAL, HOU
TB:    @MIA, @ATL, @GB,  DET, ATL,  @CAR, NO
CHI:   DET,  @PHI, SF,   @CIN, @DET, CLE, @MIN

 

Let me start by saying I think the Colts will win 2 or 3 more games, if Brissett stays health.
Possible IND wins: TEN, BUF, DEN, BAL, HOU

 

But let's look at three possible outcomes for Colts: 3-13, 4-12, and 5-11.

 

Colts 3-13 (#1-#5 possible; #3-#4 most likely)
Colts #1: CLE wins 3 AND  SF wins 2 more AND NYG wins 2 more.  SoS stays in Colts favor (unlikely).
Colts #2: SF wins 2 more AND  NYG win 2 more.  SoS stays in Colts favor (slight)
Colts #3: SF OR NYG win 2 more.  SoS stays in Colts favor. (maybe, SF could win 2 more IMO)

 

Possile CLE wins: 3 of CIN, LAC, GB, BAL, CHI (probably not)
Possible SF wins: 2 of SEA, CHI, HOU, TEN (maybe)
Possible NYG wins: 2 of WAS, WAS, ARI, DAL (not too crazy)
Colts could easily have SoS advantage over all three.

 

Colts #4: None of above scenarios pan out.  Colts likely here because:

 

If Colts have 3 wins: only CHI, TB, LAC, CIN could also be as low as 3 wins. But,
- LAC will likely win at least one more.  Possible CLE, CHI, BUF.
- CHI will likely win at least one more game or lose to Colts on SoS.  Possible CLE, SF, CIN, DET, DET
- TB  may not win anymore, but would likely lose to Colts on SoS.
- CIN will hopefully win one more.  SoS will be close between IND/CIN.  Possible win CLE, DEN, CHI.

 

Colts 4-12

To be continued after week 10 or 11.

 

Colts 5-11

To be continued after week 10 or 11.

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After week 11

 

Teams 0-10
#1 CLE   0.5250   CIN

 

Teams 1-9
#2 SF    0.5250   SEA
        
Teams 2-8
#3 NYG   0.5063   WAS
        
Teams 3-7
#4 DEN   0.4750   OAK
#5 IND   0.4813   TENN
#6 CHI   0.5625      PHI
        
Teams 4-6
#7 LAC   0.4625   DAL
#8 CIN   0.4750   CLE
#9 ARI   0.4875   JAX
#10 OAK   0.4875  DEN
#11 HOU   0.5063  BAL
#12 NYJ   0.5188  CAR
#13 WAS   0.5188  NYG
#14 MIA   0.5438  NE
#15 TB    0.5688  ATL
        
Teams 5-5
#16 BAL   0.4625  HOU
#17 DAL   0.4750  LAC
#18 BUF   0.5063  KC
#19 GB    0.5438  PITT

 

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After week 12 (before Monday night outcome)

I'm too tired to stay up for the end of tonight's game, so here's an update without the final from HOU/BAL.

 

Observations

- In the top 9, Colts have decent SoS advantage over all but DEN so far.

- If OAK, LAC, KC could start winning more, DEN SoS would pop enough to pass Colts.

- I see Colts ceiling at 5-11.  More likely outcome 4-12.

- If Colts stay at 5 for fewer wins, teams at 6 wins pick after Colts and many 5 win teams would pick after too.

- I think there is a reasonable chance both SF and NYG end up with at least 3 wins.

- At 3-13, Colts would be picking #2, #3, or #4.

- At 4-12, Colts likely picking #4 or #5.

- At 5-11, Colts still likely somewhere between #4-#9.


Notable match-ups week 13 (draft-wise)

 

SF at CHI
- SF win narrows gap with Colts.  Colts likely to maintain SoS advantage over SF throughout.
- CHI win puts space between CHI and Colts.  Minor help to Colts SoS.

 

TB at GB
- I would like to see TB get to 5 wins.  Colts will likely maintain SoS with TB throughout.

 

HOU at TEN
- HOU win widens gap between HOU/IND.

 

AFC West matchups
DEN at MIA, CLE at LAC, KC at NYJ, NYG at OAK
- NYG could leap frog Colts with a win.
- DEN could leap frog Colts with a win.  But a MIA win at least widens gap with MIA/IND.
- NYJ could widen the gap with Colts with a win.
- CLE could... ah never mind.  CLE is picking #1. Might as well root for CLE to lose out at this point.
- Even if DEN loses and all other AFC West win, DEN would have 7-0 SoS bump from these 4 games alone

    - possibly leap frogging the Colts even in loss due to SoS.  Certainly narrowing the gap.


Teams 0-11
#1 CLE    0.5260   LAC

 

Teams 1-10
#2 SF     0.5371   CHI
                
Teams 2-9
#3 NYG    0.5114   OAK
                
Teams 3-8
#4 DEN    0.4830   MIA
#5 IND    0.4913   JAX
#6 CHI    0.5543   SF
                                
Teams 4-7
#7 NYJ    0.5170   KC
#8 MIA    0.5486   DEN
#9 TB     0.5625   GB
                
Teams 4-6
#10 HOU    0.5086   TEN
                
Teams 5-6
#11 LAC    0.4545   CLE
#12 CIN    0.4682   PIT
#13 ARI    0.4857   LAR
#14 OAK    0.4857   NYG
#15 DAL    0.4886   WAS
#16 WSH    0.5170   DAL
#17 GB     0.5371   TB
                
Teams 5-5
#18 BAL    0.4629   DET

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For whatever it's worth.....

 

ESPN's computer models predict that we will not do well down the stretch and that we will end up with the 3rd overall pick in the draft.

 

Please do not use this as an example of how ESPN hates the Colts....     this is a computer that's doing the predictions, not people....  

 

Here's your link....

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/story/_/id/21579860/projected-2018-nfl-draft-order-top-10-cleveland-browns-inch-closer-first-overall-pick

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5 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

For whatever it's worth.....

 

ESPN's computer models predict that we will not do well down the stretch and that we will end up with the 3rd overall pick in the draft.

 

Please do not use this as an example of how ESPN hates the Colts....     this is a computer that's doing the predictions, not people....  

 

Here's your link....

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/story/_/id/21579860/projected-2018-nfl-draft-order-top-10-cleveland-browns-inch-closer-first-overall-pick

I hope the computer is right.

1. Browns pick QB(Rosen, Darnold, Lamar, Baker)

2. 49ers pick Barkley

3. Colts open the bidding war for the QB hungry teams... possible offers:

- Broncos no. 5 + early second round pick

- Jets no. 6 + early second round pick + fourth round pick

- Cardinals no. 9 + future first + third round pick

- Bills no. 17 + no. 24(via Chiefs) + mid second rounder + third rounder

 

Which one would you choose from those? 

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2 hours ago, stitches said:

I hope the computer is right.

1. Browns pick QB(Rosen, Darnold, Lamar, Baker)

2. 49ers pick Barkley

3. Colts open the bidding war for the QB hungry teams... possible offers:

- Broncos no. 5 + early second round pick

- Jets no. 6 + early second round pick + fourth round pick

- Cardinals no. 9 + future first + third round pick

- Bills no. 17 + no. 24(via Chiefs) + mid second rounder + third rounder

 

Which one would you choose from those? 

I am trading with the Bills all day long if that was possible.  Have 2 first, second, and third rounders.  This would allow us to get some great talent and make an impact plus Free Agency.... best case for sure.  I am sure many would freak out dropping this far back though.  

 

Within just the first 4 rounds you would be looking at 7 picks... yes please!

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7 hours ago, stitches said:

I hope the computer is right.

1. Browns pick QB(Rosen, Darnold, Lamar, Baker)

2. 49ers pick Barkley

3. Colts open the bidding war for the QB hungry teams... possible offers:

- Broncos no. 5 + early second round pick

- Jets no. 6 + early second round pick + fourth round pick

- Cardinals no. 9 + future first + third round pick

- Bills no. 17 + no. 24(via Chiefs) + mid second rounder + third rounder

 

Which one would you choose from those? 

 

Why would San Francisco pick Barkley when they traded for Garoppolo?

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12 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

For whatever it's worth.....

 

ESPN's computer models predict that we will not do well down the stretch and that we will end up with the 3rd overall pick in the draft.

 

Please do not use this as an example of how ESPN hates the Colts....     this is a computer that's doing the predictions, not people....  

 

Here's your link....

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/story/_/id/21579860/projected-2018-nfl-draft-order-top-10-cleveland-browns-inch-closer-first-overall-pick

If we get the 3rd pick in the Draft, hard telling what Ballard will do with it? I think we get Top 5 at worse. I see us 5-11 at best now.

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3 hours ago, tweezy32 said:

If we get top 4 and dont trade down I will be very upset.. If other teams can some how manage to get so many picks from other teams I think we should be able too since there are a lot of teams that need a qb. I'

 

I know what you're saying, but let me remind all that it's too soon to know what the Colts will be doing.

 

Why?    Andrew Luck.

 

If he announces in January that he is not healing properly and needs another operation then the Colts might need to draft a QB and we might have to trade UP to do so.

 

i think we will know about Luck's future by the end of January and maybe earlier in the month.   Perhaps right around the first week of January when we will likely clean house of the coaching staff.   Ballard may be making a lot of headline news in January.

 

This is going to be a fascinating off-season to watch unfold...

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6 hours ago, stitches said:

In order to pair up Barkley with Garoppolo and give him a stud of a back? 

 

I could see the 49ers picking a Qb in a later round, but unlikely with their first pick.  In your/espn’s scenario the 49ers would then be in the best position to get extra draft picks from teams in need of a Qb.  The Colts should still be able to trade down and get extra picks, if that is what they want to do.

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26 minutes ago, Cynjin said:

 

I could see the 49ers picking a Qb in a later round, but unlikely with their first pick.  In your/espn’s scenario the 49ers would then be in the best position to get extra draft picks from teams in need of a Qb.  The Colts should still be able to trade down and get extra picks, if that is what they want to do.

Barkley is a running back, not a QB. You are probably mistaking him for somebody else. 

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4 hours ago, LockeDown said:

If I'm the 49ers, I take a QB.  Just like Seattle did the year they drafted Wilson.  They just traded for Green Bay's backup and everyone thought he was the starter.  You can't assume JG will be great. 

They are starting him this weekend so he will finish out the year.  Plus in 3 plays last week he was 2 for 2 and a TD.  Not saying this guy is great but they will have some time to get eyes on him versus drafting a potential guy with 0 NFL experience.  My guess is they sign or Franchise Jimmy and either keep Beathard, who is an alright backup, or draft someone late.

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8 hours ago, DaColts85 said:

They are starting him this weekend so he will finish out the year.  Plus in 3 plays last week he was 2 for 2 and a TD.  Not saying this guy is great but they will have some time to get eyes on him versus drafting a potential guy with 0 NFL experience.  My guess is they sign or Franchise Jimmy and either keep Beathard, who is an alright backup, or draft someone late.

Matt Cassell, Jimmy G. And Jacoby B.  All looked great in the Pats system.  It's a locked tight system that BB has nailed to a T.  They will never look as good in someone else's system as they do in the Pats.  You grab a Top QB and let them compete.  Wentz and Goff are lighting it up.  Both top picks.  Jimmy has been riding the pine for a while and that never really speaks well for a supposed franchise QB.  If he were great, something would have happened for him before now.  Exceptions occur, but not the rule.

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14 hours ago, LockeDown said:

Matt Cassell, Jimmy G. And Jacoby B.  All looked great in the Pats system.  It's a locked tight system that BB has nailed to a T.  They will never look as good in someone else's system as they do in the Pats.  You grab a Top QB and let them compete.  Wentz and Goff are lighting it up.  Both top picks.  Jimmy has been riding the pine for a while and that never really speaks well for a supposed franchise QB.  If he were great, something would have happened for him before now.  Exceptions occur, but not the rule.

Brissett looks good in our system and it is very different.  Is he an all-pro, no, but he was a mid round prospect.  Matt Cassell is a good example of that system shining for anyone, but I do not keep him and Jimmy G in the same light at all.  Jimmy has shown far more potential and likely has the best opportunity out of all the backups behind Brady.  

 

That being said the 49ers also are not going to give up the potential 2nd pick in the 2nd round of a draft for a QB and then that same draft grab a QB with a top pick.  That would be an incredibly stupid move on John Lynch.  

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2 hours ago, DaColts85 said:

Brissett looks good in our system and it is very different.  Is he an all-pro, no, but he was a mid round prospect.  Matt Cassell is a good example of that system shining for anyone, but I do not keep him and Jimmy G in the same light at all.  Jimmy has shown far more potential and likely has the best opportunity out of all the backups behind Brady.  

 

That being said the 49ers also are not going to give up the potential 2nd pick in the 2nd round of a draft for a QB and then that same draft grab a QB with a top pick.  That would be an incredibly stupid move on John Lynch.  

 

Here's what ESPN's Adam Shefter said yesterday...   

 

He thinks SF will get a deal done with JG...

 

BUT....

 

1.    IF the 49ers would prefer someone like Kirk Cousins,  and Wash would like to start over with JG...   then the two teams do a QB swap..    JG to Wash and KC to SF.

 

OR....

 

2.    SF loves one of the college QBs and takes that player either 2nd overall pick and then trades JG to another team who will pay and start him and give SF a number one and then some In a deal.

 

What Shefter didn't say, but you'd have to assume is that in either scenario, the 49ers have re-signed JG to a deal so they control his rights.

 

Those are the two possible scenarios for SF to move JG.     Now Shefter doesn't see either happening, and sees JG staying in SF,   Shefter was only saying that it could happen.

 

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  Jimmy looked good where?  In New England.  I said you can’t trust that.  Jacoby looked better with NEw England than with us.  Very few backups become great starters and I’m on record saying B.B. wouldn’t had let him go if he were a starter.  His upside is Matt whatshisname from Houston 

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After week 13

 

Notes

- Colts would have moved to #4 had PHI beat SEA in week 13.

- I've bolded the remaining games between team in the bottom 12.

- I've shown the number of oppnent's wins next to SoS percentage.

- Colts could theoretically move to #2 next week with

    - NYG over DAL

    - SF over HOU

    - BUF over Colts

    - 1 game SoS improvement with DEN

    - no more then 2 game SoS loss with NYG 

- Colts likely still in top-8 even if they end up at 5-11

 

Teams 0-12
#1 CLE   0.5365    [103 wins]   GB, BAL, CHI, PIT
                                
Teams 2-10     
#2 NYG   0.5052    [ 97 wins]    DAL, PHI, ARI, WSH
#3 SF      0.5260    [101 wins]   HOU, TEN, JAX, LAR
                                
Teams 3-9
#4 DEN   0.4896    [ 94 wins]   NYJ, IND, WSH, KC
#5 IND    0.4948    [ 95 wins]    BUF, DEN, BAL, HOU
#6 CHI    0.5521    [106 wins]   CIN, DET, CLE, MIN
                                
Teams 4-8
#7 HOU   0.5208    [100 wins]   SF, JAX, PIT, IND
#8 TB      0.5521    [106 wins]   DET, ATL, CAR, NO
                                
Teams 5-7
#9 ARI      0.4896   [ 94 wins]   TEN, WSH, NYG, SEA
#10 NYJ   0.5156   [ 99 wins]    DEN, NO, LAC, NE
#11 WSH  0.5208   [100 wins]   LAC, ARI, DEN, NYG
#12 MIA    0.5521   [106 wins]   NE, BUF, KC, BUF

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40 minutes ago, ponyboy said:

After week 13

 

Notes

- Colts would have moved to #4 had PHI beat SEA in week 13.

- I've bolded the remaining games between team in the bottom 12.

- I've shown the number of oppnent's wins next to SoS percentage.

- Colts could theoretically move to #2 next week with

    - NYG over DAL

    - SF over HOU

    - BUF over Colts

    - 1 game SoS improvement with DEN

    - no more then 2 game SoS loss with NYG 

- Colts likely still in top-8 even if they end up at 5-11

 

Teams 0-12
#1 CLE   0.5365    [103 wins]   GB, BAL, CHI, PIT
                                
Teams 2-10     
#2 NYG   0.5052    [ 97 wins]    DAL, PHI, ARI, WSH
#3 SF      0.5260    [101 wins]   HOU, TEN, JAX, LAR
                                
Teams 3-9
#4 DEN   0.4896    [ 94 wins]   NYJ, IND, WSH, KC
#5 IND    0.4948    [ 95 wins]    BUF, DEN, BAL, HOU
#6 CHI    0.5521    [106 wins]   CIN, DET, CLE, MIN
                                
Teams 4-8
#7 HOU   0.5208    [100 wins]   SF, JAX, PIT, IND
#8 TB      0.5521    [106 wins]   DET, ATL, CAR, NO
                                
Teams 5-7
#9 ARI      0.4896   [ 94 wins]   TEN, WSH, NYG, SEA
#10 NYJ   0.5156   [ 99 wins]    DEN, NO, LAC, NE
#11 WSH  0.5208   [100 wins]   LAC, ARI, DEN, NYG
#12 MIA    0.5521   [106 wins]   NE, BUF, KC, BUF

 

Honest question:     Are you by chance a CPA or some other profession involving math and strict formulas of how to use it?

 

Inquiring minds and all that....

 

Sincerly yours....

 

Your Fan Club.      :thmup:

 

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After week 13 (with one correction)

I thought CIN had beat PIT 20-10 in week 13.. but in fact PIT won 23-20.  I was following the game on NFL Gamecast and pulling for CIN, but went to bed in the 3rd quarter.  In the morning the Gamecast said 20-10 and I would swear it said FINAL.  But the browser must of just needed a refresh.

 

Here's an update with that correction.  It puts CIN back into the set of 5-7 teams (and the best SoS, too).  It improves DEN SoS by 1 game.  

 

Teams 0-12
#1 CLE   0.5365    [103 wins]   GB, BAL, CHI, PIT
                                
Teams 2-10     
#2 NYG   0.5052    [ 97 wins]    DAL, PHI, ARI, WSH
#3 SF      0.5260    [101 wins]   HOU, TEN, JAX, LAR
                                
Teams 3-9
#4 DEN   0.4844    [ 93 wins]   NYJ, IND, WSH, KC
#5 IND    0.4948    [ 95 wins]    BUF, DEN, BAL, HOU
#6 CHI    0.5521    [106 wins]   CIN, DET, CLE, MIN
                                
Teams 4-8
#7 HOU   0.5208    [100 wins]   SF, JAX, PIT, IND
#8 TB      0.5521    [106 wins]   DET, ATL, CAR, NO
                                
Teams 5-7
#9   CIN    0,4740   [ 91 wins]   CHI, MIN, DET, BAL

#10 ARI    0.4896   [ 94 wins]   TEN, WSH, NYG, SEA
#11 NYJ   0.5156   [ 99 wins]    DEN, NO, LAC, NE
#12 WSH  0.5208   [100 wins]   LAC, ARI, DEN, NYG
#13 MIA    0.5521   [106 wins]   NE, BUF, KC, BUF

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On 12/6/2017 at 1:00 AM, NewColtsFan said:

 

Honest question:     Are you by chance a CPA or some other profession involving math and strict formulas of how to use it?

 

Inquiring minds and all that....

 

Sincerly yours....

 

Your Fan Club.      :thmup:

 

 

I'm a software engineer.  An early-mid 80s Purdue computer science guy.

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After week 14

 

NOTE: I'm posting this before SUN night game.  I'm projecting a win for BAL over PITT Sun night and NE over MIA Monday night for purposes of SoS.  The outcome of BAL/PITT has no impact in the top #11 (not even SoS).

 

Observations

- I feel NYG have a good shot for one more win in the remaining 3 (ARI or WSH)

- Colts only have DEN close in SoS in the top 8 (and it's only 1 game difference with DEN).

- Colts could beat DEN Thursday and still be at #3 or #4 at end of week 15.  #5 at worst.

- Colts at 3-13: almost a lock for #2 or #3

- Colts at 4-12: almost a lock for #3, #4, or #5 (#2 still possible).

- Colts at 5-11: still likely #6-#8 (#9 worst case).

 

Upcoming key match-ups (draft-wise)

- Week 15 TEN at SF (would like to see SF get 4th win)

- Week 16 CLE at CHI (would like to see CHI get 5th win)

- Week 16 DEN at WSH (would like to see DEN get another win)

- Week 16 NYG at ARI (would like to see NYG get 3rd win)

- Week 16 JAX at SF (would like to see another SF win at home)

- Week 17 NYG at WSH (would like to see NYG get 3rd or 4th win)

 

Teams 0-13
#1 CLE     0.5288  [110 wins]  BAL, @CHI, @PIT
                            
Teams 2-11
#2 NYG     0.5144  [107 wins]  PHI, @ARI, WSH
                            
Teams 3-10
#3 IND     0.4904  [102 wins]  DEN, @BAL, HOU
#4 SF      0.5192  [108 wins]  TEN, JAX, @LAR
                            
Teams 4-9
#5 DEN     0.4856  [101 wins]  @IND, @WSH, KC
#6 HOU     0.5144  [107 wins]  @JAX, PIT, @IND
#7 CHI     0.5529  [115 wins]  @DET, CLE, @MIN
#8 TB      0.5577  [116 wins]  ATL, @CAR, NO
                            
Teams 5-8
#9 CIN     0.4760  [ 99 wins]  @MIN, DET, @BAL
#10 NYJ     0.5240  [109 wins]  @NO, LAC, @NE
#11 WSH     0.5240  [109 wins]  ARI, DEN, @NYG
#12 MIA     0.5577  [116 wins]  @BUF, @KC, BUF
                            
Teams 6-7
#13 ARI     0.4808  [100 wins]  @WSH, NYG, @SEA
#14 OAK     0.5048  [105 wins]  DAL, @PHI, @LAC

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If the 49ers and Giants each win 1 more game than us, we could seriously have the second overall pick... Trade back a few picks to a team that needs a QB, we could stay safely within the top 10 and pick up an extra second rounder and a 2019 1st round pick - maybe even more compensation than that. 

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8 hours ago, Track Guy said:

If the 49ers and Giants each win 1 more game than us, we could seriously have the second overall pick... Trade back a few picks to a team that needs a QB, we could stay safely within the top 10 and pick up an extra second rounder and a 2019 1st round pick - maybe even more compensation than that. 

 

Actually they would just need to win the same number of games as us.  They have a higher strength of schedule which is the tie breaker.  

 

So right now SF is tied with us and is just under us in the draft order with us at #3.  If we lose out and the Giants win one more then we could get to #2.  

 

However the Colts losing out isn't a given.  We have Denver and Houston at home left on the schedule and both of those teams are 4 - 9.  

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17 hours ago, Track Guy said:

If the 49ers and Giants each win 1 more game than us, we could seriously have the second overall pick... Trade back a few picks to a team that needs a QB, we could stay safely within the top 10 and pick up an extra second rounder and a 2019 1st round pick - maybe even more compensation than that. 

 

That sounds great......   but first, we need to know that Luck is alright.

 

Because if he's not,  we may need that 2nd pick overall to take our next QB.

 

Damn!

 

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22 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

That sounds great......   but first, we need to know that Luck is alright.

 

Because if he's not,  we may need that 2nd pick overall to take our next QB.

 

Damn!

 

I sure hope not..... long way off yet, but this may be one of those situations where no news isn't necessarily good news.

 

 

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