ColtsBlueFL

Competitive imbalance in the NFL?

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For years, the NFL has been the champion of competitive balance. 

 

" Commissioner Pete Rozelle created the Competition Committee in 1968, two years after the announcement that the NFL and the AFL would merge before the 1970 season. It replaced the Rules Committee, which was formed in 1932 to help develop the professional game’s playing rules as it moved away from the college rulebook, which was used in the league’s earliest days."

 

The committee has the responsibility of reviewing a survey 32 NFL clubs fill out, answering questions about player protection, officiating, competitive balance and technology.

 

" After the combine, the committee reconvenes to review video, draft rule proposals and positions, discuss proposals submitted by clubs and prepare its report of supporting statistics for the membership to discuss and vote on at the league’s annual meeting. "

 

The owners vote on proposed rule changes, etc..  and it must garner 75% (24 clubs) acceptance to pass.  So even if 8 teams reject it, it still becomes rule.  And over time, the rules in place and those added seem to have tried to restore or maintain competitive balance in the NFL (draft rules, salary cap, etc...).

 

What got me to revisit this, was a comment made by BOTT in the NFL ratings thread; about the number of mediocre teams.  It resonated with me to a degree, so I looked into it some.  What I found was surprising... (yet maybe not so much either).

 

Unlike any other year in memory, there are currently 8 NFL clubs that have yet to win a game. They are 0 - 2 (of which our Colts happens to be one).  There is one club, that is 0 - 3!!  That is, 28% or the NFL teams have yet to win a game.  More than 1/4th, nearly 1/3rd !!.  By the same token, there are 7 teams with 2 - 0 records.  22%, or nearly 1/4th the teams.  And the rest crammed in the middle.  What is scary, there could be potentially 8 teams standing at 0 - 3 after this weeks games (not likely, but still possible).  At least the Colts - Browns game will have one club at 1 - 2 while the other goes to 0 - 3.  I think I saw a stat where an 0 - 2 team has about a 10% chance of making the playoffs.  An 0 - 3 team has about 1%.  This tells me about 1/4 of the league is nearly out of the playoff hunt already only 2 games in to the 16 game season.

 

I cannot remember a time where there were so many teams grouped at the bottom of the barrel. I guess I am still not sure what this imbalance in competition will do to game attendance, TV viewership, and potentially, advertisement dollars...  etc...

 

I guess we will have to see how this plays out, and is 2017 an outlier, or a new trend?

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2 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

Unlike any other year in memory, there are currently 8 NFL clubs that have yet to win a game.

 

2 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

I cannot remember a time where there were so many teams grouped at the bottom of the barrel.

 

2016.  Last year.  Eight teams started 0-2.  Four of those teams went 0-3.  Browns went 0-14...

 

I didn't go back farther than that.  I'll let you check 2015 and beyond.

 

Every year, we see about 1/4 of the league at the bottom, 1/4 at the top, with the remaining 1/2 being in the middle (mediocre).  I don't see how 2017 is different than any other year, much less an outlier...

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I think, with the greatest respect, is only scraping the surface if we want to really analyse this. We'd need to examine back over a number of seasons certainly to at least get an idea of the baseline before we cry that this season is out the ordinary. 

 

I think too we must remember that, IMO anyway, parity tends to be a season to season affair on the whole, how often do we see a team go from 4th to 1st over 2 seasons? 

 

Now if you were to say teams were mediocre because of the performance on the field rather than their win% I think there's more of an argument that the standard is dropping due to the changes in practice regulations. 

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19 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

 

2016.  Last year.  Eight teams started 0-2.  Four of those teams went 0-3.  Browns went 0-14...

 

I didn't go back farther than that.  I'll let you check 2015 and beyond.

 

Every year, we see about 1/4 of the league at the bottom, 1/4 at the top, with the remaining 1/2 being in the middle (mediocre).  I don't see how 2017 is different than any other year, much less an outlier...

 

Yeah,  guess I haven't paid attention. and the Colts always are 0 - 2 recently it seems...

 

2015  nine 0 -2 teams

2014  seven 0 - 2 teams

2013  eight 0 - 2 teams

2012  six 0 - 2 teams

2011  seven 0 - 2 teams

 

Could go on and on...That means a lot of fan bases are disappointed very fast each year.  Stat's to go with these, is 0 - 2 team make playoffs  < or = 10%, ( 1 in 10) and 0 - 3 teams make it one time out of 100...  Average W-L record of 0 - 3 teams?  4.5 wins.

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4 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Yeah,  guess I haven't paid attention. and the Colts always are 0 - 2 recently it seems...

 

2015  nine 0 -2 teams

2014  seven 0 - 2 teams

2013  eight 0 - 2 teams

2012  six 0 - 2 teams

2011  seven 0 - 2 teams

 

Could go on and on...That means a lot of fan bases are disappointed very fast each year.  Stat's to go with these, is 0 - 2 team make playoffs <or = 10%, ( 1 in 10) and 0 -3 teams make it one time out of 100...  Average W-L record of 0 - 3 trams?  4.5 wins.

Interesting stats.

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16 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

For years, the NFL has been the champion of competitive balance. 

 

" Commissioner Pete Rozelle created the Competition Committee in 1968, two years after the announcement that the NFL and the AFL would merge before the 1970 season. It replaced the Rules Committee, which was formed in 1932 to help develop the professional game’s playing rules as it moved away from the college rulebook, which was used in the league’s earliest days."

 

The committee has the responsibility of reviewing a survey 32 NFL clubs fill out, answering questions about player protection, officiating, competitive balance and technology.

 

" After the combine, the committee reconvenes to review video, draft rule proposals and positions, discuss proposals submitted by clubs and prepare its report of supporting statistics for the membership to discuss and vote on at the league’s annual meeting. "

 

The owners vote on proposed rule changes, etc..  and it must garner 75% (24 clubs) acceptance to pass.  So even if 8 teams reject it, it still becomes rule.  And over time, the rules in place and those added seem to have tried to restore or maintain competitive balance in the NFL (draft rules, salary cap, etc...).

 

What got me to revisit this, was a comment made by BOTT in the NFL ratings thread; about the number of mediocre teams.  It resonated with me to a degree, so I looked into it some.  What I found was surprising... (yet maybe not so much either).

 

Unlike any other year in memory, there are currently 8 NFL clubs that have yet to win a game. They are 0 - 2 (of which our Colts happens to be one).  There is one club, that is 0 - 3!!  That is, 28% or the NFL teams have yet to win a game.  More than 1/4th, nearly 1/3rd !!.  By the same token, there are 7 teams with 2 - 0 records.  22%, or nearly 1/4th the teams.  And the rest crammed in the middle.  What is scary, there could be potentially 8 teams standing at 0 - 3 after this weeks games (not likely, but still possible).  At least the Colts - Browns game will have one club at 1 - 2 while the other goes to 0 - 3.  I think I saw a stat where an 0 - 2 team has about a 10% chance of making the playoffs.  An 0 - 3 team has about 1%.  This tells me about 1/4 of the league is nearly out of the playoff hunt already only 2 games in to the 16 game season.

 

I cannot remember a time where there were so many teams grouped at the bottom of the barrel. I guess I am still not sure what this imbalance in competition will do to game attendance, TV viewership, and potentially, advertisement dollars...  etc...

 

I guess we will have to see how this plays out, and is 2017 an outlier, or a new trend?

Good post. Food for thought for sure.

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5 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

Could go on and on...That means a lot of fan bases are disappointed very fast each year.  Stat's to go with these, is 0 - 2 team make playoffs <or = 10%, ( 1 in 10) and 0 -3 teams make it one time out of 100...  Average W-L record of 0 - 3 trams?  4.5 wins.

 

53 minutes ago, Buck Showalter said:

Interesting stats.

 

18 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Good post. Food for thought for sure.

 

This is definitely an interesting topic.  I love math and numbers because I'm a nerd, which makes the Colts a perfect team for me as a fan.  We've had seasons start 13-0 and 0-13.

 

There are a set number of wins and losses every year in the league.  So for every team that stays undefeated or defeated to start a season, those wins and losses are going somewhere.  Are they all bunching up in the middle, or are there teams at the other end of the spectrum "picking up the slack"?

 

Stats and analytics can be very interesting and actually fun if you dive into it, but there's still nothing more exciting than a team that does something that's never been done before.  It sounds weird to say, but I would absolutely love it if the Colts went 0-6, then end up 14-6.  I still love pointing out to people how historically bad our defense, specifically the run-D, was in 2006.  Nobody before 2006 had EVER won a SB with such a bad defense.

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I don't see an issue with teams going 0-2 or 0-3....its when its the same teams year after year that there is something the league needs to look into. That isn't fair to those fan bases or communities. Maybe there should be some ownership changes etc for teams that can go a decade or more while losing almost all its games. Not sure what can really be done but it isn't good for the league to have franchises like the Browns and Jets and others that get run into the ground and never improve year after year despite having every opportunity to draft high talent or sign free agents. Yes teams that start off poorly rarely make the playoffs but we see new teams get in quite regularly. I think its a pretty competitive balance...even when you think a game should be a blowout you will see teams like Chicago or New Orleans upset better teams. I think most organizations can be pretty competitive...it does seem like success is closely tied to having a franchise qb...so if the league could work on improving the quality of that position coming into the league that might help some as well or it could change some rules to try to lessen the importance of the position (given the fans passion for scoring etc I doubt that happens). Overall if I'm a small market fan I feel pretty good that if we get the right coaches in place and we draft a well and have a good qb...we have a shot....where as in other sports your rarely retain your best talent or can't compete monetarily on an even playing field.

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Unfortunately, winning in the NFL has reverted to a simple formula that has tended to make the entire league more boring and uninteresting. 

 

Have an elite QB and keep him healthy.

 

The rest of it is just a bunch of over-athletic players running around performing stunts that don't matter and tend to even out over the course of a season.

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5 hours ago, DougDew said:

Unfortunately, winning in the NFL has reverted to a simple formula that has tended to make the entire league more boring and uninteresting. 

 

Have an elite QB and keep him healthy.

 

The rest of it is just a bunch of over-athletic players running around performing stunts that don't matter and tend to even out over the course of a season.

 

Don't tell Saints, Chargers, Panthers fans that.

Once in a while the bottom franchises will have a decent, good season But usually soon revert back to their losing ways.

 

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32 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher said:

 

Don't tell Saints, Chargers, Panthers fans that.

Once in a while the bottom franchises will have a decent, good season But usually soon revert back to their losing ways.

 

Good point.  Panthers have had good records when Newton was healthy.  Can't figure the other two's perpetual problems.  But I think a healthy elite QB is pretty much essential to any consistent success.

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On 9/23/2017 at 9:05 AM, ColtsBlueFL said:

I cannot remember a time where there were so many teams grouped at the bottom of the barrel.

 

You could be right, now.  It's still about 50/50 as far as winning records vs losing records.

 

But there is only one undefeated team - KC at 5-0

 

While there are three teams - the Giants, Browns, and 49ers all at 0-5 weighing down the bottom of the barrel.

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