Why I'm beefing with the Colts passing offense -- Part 2

[Superman]

http://forums.colts.com/topic/49818-why-im-beefing-with-the-colts-passing-offense/

 

This is prompted by the ongoing conversation about the Colts passing attack in multiple threads, and a followup to my previous thread which I've been meaning to get around to anyway. Again, pardon my rudimentary screenshots and diagrams, but I am adding some all-22 looks to this breakdown. I'm going to focus on the deciding possession against the Texans in Week 14, when the season was basically on the line. Yes, the Texans were one of the best defenses in the league last year, but these plays illustrate how it's more a function of the offense hurting itself than it is being stopped, even by a good defense.

 

#1: 4th quarter, 2:11 remaining, down 22-17 at home, it's 1st and 10 on your own 49 yard line. The Colts are in 11 personnel, lined up in shotgun with one receiver on the left,  two WRs and a TE on the right, and the single back to the QB's left (where Clowney is lined up across from Castonzo). You can see that the DBs are playing a reasonable depth off of the receivers, about 5 yards, and the Texans have 6 defenders in the box, showing a pressure look with single high coverage and a likely spy/zone across the middle from the weakside safety.

 

Now, it's late in the game, the Colts need a TD, and they have no timeouts, so you can't go super conservative, but you're up against the two minute warning here and wherever you go with the ball, the clock is going to stop without costing you a lot of time, so the middle of the field is in play. You have a loose bunch at the top of the screen, and the safety being over the top of your 3 man grouping suggests a double team. The weak spot, especially against a pressure look, is the open area in front of the weakside safety, who is 14-15 yards off the LOS when the ball is snapped.

 

 

After the snap, the loose bunch runs an inside/out combo, but that side of the field is flooded with an extra defender, so no one comes free right away. The middle receiver runs a deep corner, which is doubled; the outside receiver runs an 8 yard comeback, and the TE runs a 5 yard out, which is covered. The comeback comes open, but only after the area is cleared by the other two routes.

 

On the single receiver side, Rogers runs 10 yards and simply turns around. The DB never flips and turns, so he's in position to break on the "comeback" route (Rogers never really comes back, and Luck double clutches while looking in his direction). You can see the short middle is still open, even though the safety is crashing down and a linebacker is zoning across the middle.

 

 

By the time Luck double clutches, he's being pressured, and can't come back to the open short comeback at the top of the screen. The deep receiver is doubled, the TE is covered, and Luck is being hit. The ball flails as Luck gets it away, and it falls incomplete in the flat.

 

Here's the end zone angle, from behind the play:

 

You can see from this angle that Luck has good enough protection. It takes 2+ seconds before he's under pressure, and he double clutches before getting hit and throwing the ball.

 

This is a 'take what they give you' situation. The play is well covered from the time the ball is snapped, because the Texans have disguised their coverage pretty well, and they're taking away the deep receiver. Bringing one of the bunch receivers to the other side of the formation would have exposed the coverage, or opened up a better hot opportunity. But even the way the offense lined up, Rogers could have run a quick slant to give Luck a throwing window before the safety was in position to defend the pass. Rogers could have run an actual comeback instead of just turning around and then drifting toward the sideline, giving Luck no window to throw. 

 

The open receiver wound up being none other than Phillip Dorsett, who ran the short comeback on the right side. If Luck throws the ball at the height of his drop, rather than coming back to the left side, Dorsett is open just behind the linebacker, the outside defender is covering the TE out, and the other corner is turning to run with Hilton. 

 

This is a first and 10 play call, around midfield, with the game on the line and no real time constraints to be concerned with. Not only do we play right into the strength of the defense, ignoring the part of the field that looks like it will be open presnap, but the receiver who 'never gets any separation' came open right on time, but didn't get targeted.

[Superman]

#2: 2nd and 10, 2:06 to play, still on your own 49. You can see that the Texans are playing 6-10 yards off now across the board, showing a nickel zone look presnap, and the Colts are still in their 11 personnel, 3x1 alignment, but the receivers at the top of the screen are in more traditional splits. 

 

Soft zone look, you go to one of your staple zone beaters, right? The Colts do this:

 

First of all, Luck has enough protection on this play, again. Houston sends four, and we keep the back in to block initially, though he drifts into the left flat after he sees the Texans drop back. Three of our four receivers run ten yard patterns, including Doyle, our slowest receiver, who runs a 15 yard deep cross. None of this is relevant, because these are all clear-out routes to get the ball to Hilton underneath.

 

 

Look at what Luck sees directly in front of him at the top of his drop. There's no pressure, and if he wants, he can take off and run once that backside linebacker chases the back into the flat. He's getting ready to fire it to Hilton for the underneath route. But you can see the only receiver in the frame is Doyle, and right above him is the strongside safety, sitting on his slow, long developing in route that has no chance.

 

 

The result, Luck throws the ball relatively quickly to Hilton on his hitch route, Hilton tries to break a tackle and gives up a yard or two in the process. Three yard gain, and the Texans were never in trouble. Everyone is well covered, and we've again made it easy for them by not requiring them to cover the middle of the field.

 

So, I said earlier sometimes you have to take what you can get, and now I'm complaining about a quick pitch and catch that gained positive yardage. Why am I never satisfied?

 

I would like to stress that this is a dead ball situation. The offense took the field with almost three minutes remaining, needing to go 75 yards for a TD. This play is right after an incompletion, and you're getting ready to hit the two minute warning. This is not a hurry-up, no-huddle play call. This is what the OC, who sits up in the booth and has full view of the field, is calling. With the game on the line. Every offense has go-to zone beaters. On the most important possession of the game -- of the year, to that point, really -- the OC calls 3 verticals against 2 deep zone coverage, and we gain 3 yards.

[Superman]

#3: 3rd and 7, from the +48, 1:57 remaining, dead ball. The Texans appear to be in 2 deep nickel against our 11 personnel, this time in a 2x2 alignment. Then we bring Hilton in motion from the right side to the left.

 

So I said earlier that when you use motion, you can identify the coverage. This is one of the primary uses of motion. Two things happen here: 1) We can see that the defender lined up over Hilton comes with him across the field, showing himself to be in man coverage, and 2) the defender lined up over Doyle on the left side in the box comes down into the gap showing blitz. So not only is it man coverage, they're also bringing extra pressure. With the safeties both still 10+ yards back, you'll have room to work underneath, but you need 7 yards to get the first down. The corner is also playing back on the outside receiver to the left.

 

 

The Texans send the DB up the middle, and they send the weakside safety. This winds up being zero coverage, single on the outside, no help over the top, with a zone LB over the middle. The line picks up the blitz initially, despite being a good pressure scheme which would eventually affect the play. This is actually a pretty good two-man concept with Hilton and Doyle, despite the absolutely useless routes being run by both outside receivers (which is something the Colts do quite a lot, as Doug Farrar found out: https://twitter.com/BR_DougFarrar/status/878390118708465665)

 

 

 

Hilton winds up stacked directly behind Doyle, giving him a free release, and the DB and LB are slightly out of position at the snap. Hilton runs a hitch under the DB, and Doyle runs a 7 yard in across the middle, getting picked up by the safety.

 

 

 

Let's pause here and consider the timing of the play. This is out of the two minute warning. It's 3rd down. Biggest play of the game. On first down, they doubled Hilton. On second down, they gave him an underneath catch, but everyone in the secondary broke toward him as soon as Luck wound up to throw the ball. Every time Luck looks toward Hilton, the coverage reacts.

 

And the situation: this is a Bill O'Brien team, and the defense is coached by Romeo Crennel. We can trust that the scouting report says two things: 1) Keep Luck contained, and 2) don't let #13 beat you. On the previous drive, the Colts TD drive that brought them within 2 points, Hilton beat the defense over the top and scored a long TD on a play on which he was even interfered with. Prior to the defense taking the field on this drive, they were told "don't let Hilton beat you!" On the first play of this drive, Luck throws toward Hilton, the ball gets tipped into the air, and Hilton amazingly dives under it to make a 14 yard catch. During the two minute warning, they were told again "DON'T LET HILTON BEAT YOU!" 

 

All Luck had to do here is flinch toward Hilton, then target Doyle across the middle once the LB bites. This is easy to say with the benefit of hindsight, but it would have resulted in a first down. Great coaching would have taken advantage of Hilton's gravity and made Luck aware of the potential to get the defense out of position.

 

 

But go back to the two end zone view shots. At the top of Luck's drop, the single safety and the zoned LB are focused on Hilton's route. As soon as Luck throws, they break on him. He catches it and probably could have dived forward for the first down, but he tries to get around the linebacker and gets tackled a yard short of the marker.

 

Meanwhile, Dorsett and Rogers are trotting aimlessly down the sidelines, not stressing the defense in any way, despite single coverage. And again, there's opportunity to run a slant on either side.

 

Fourth and 1.

 

[Superman]

I won't diagram the 4th down play. It's just too bad. I say that the Colts don't enough screens, and I mean that, but the likely reason we don't run them is because we suck at them.

 

But that doesn't stop us from trying to run a screen pass on the biggest 4th down of the season, with the division hanging in the balance.

 

Go to the 9:35 mark: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QrKjZQICrU

 

This is the series of plays that essentially cost us the playoffs last season. This is what we ran when on the deciding possession of a huge divisional rival matchup, late in the season. You see weird, ineffective routes being run on the outside. Missed open receivers. Play calls that send receivers into the strength of the defense, but rarely into the open areas of the field. No hot routes. A complete inability to run a screen pass, which has become a staple play for most modern offenses (even college teams live on bubble screens, although they send their linemen too far down the field most of the time). There's an over reliance on Hilton, and a failure to capitalize when defenses zero in on him. 

 

And yet, our offense is top ten in yards/game, points, 3rd down percentage, top half in yards/play, our passing game is top ten in multiple categories, including yards, TDs, yards/play, first down percentage, and 20+ yard plays. The offense is already dynamic, especially the passing game. At times, it's downright lethal. 

 

I think it would be that much better if we ran better route combinations, made better use of short areas, let the receivers try to gain YAC, and for goodness sake, learned to run a proper screen pass. 

[coltsfeva]

Spot on Superman. As you stated, we do have the benefit of hindsight but one thing is clear: play calling has to be better this year (along with improved protection from the Oline and better decisions from Andrew). I'm interested to see if there are schematic changes, to take advantage of WR speed/quickness and to help protect Andrew. Improvements in the run game can only help. I would like to think these things were/are being looked at and adjustments made. 

[ColtsBlitz]

This series is where a speed back would have changed the drive. We didn't have one then obviously (although I think Jordan Todman should've seen more reps as one) but now with Mack that will be different. I agree the play calling is questionable sometimes in key moments, but Chud should only get better with experience with our offense and if not, he will have to go. A lot is on the coaches this year, especially O coaches since Luck still hasn't thrown. 

[ColtsBlitz]

Also, screen passes with an experienced MLB like Cushing most likely covering the RB was another reason it was stupid on 4th and 1. Just run a quick pass, rollout pass, pitch play, etc. Screens on short distance are *ic since the one catching is already behind the line of scrimmage. On top of that, the defense is planning on a short pass, so they are either going to blitz up the middle or man up. I really hope we can beat the Texans because tbh, I'm tired of losing to them. 

[jameszeigler834]

9 hours ago, Superman said:

http://forums.colts.com/topic/49818-why-im-beefing-with-the-colts-passing-offense/

 

This is prompted by the ongoing conversation about the Colts passing attack in multiple threads, and a followup to my previous thread which I've been meaning to get around to anyway. Again, pardon my rudimentary screenshots and diagrams, but I am adding some all-22 looks to this breakdown. I'm going to focus on the deciding possession against the Texans in Week 14, when the season was basically on the line. Yes, the Texans were one of the best defenses in the league last year, but these plays illustrate how it's more a function of the offense hurting itself than it is being stopped, even by a good defense.

 

#1: 4th quarter, 2:11 remaining, down 22-17 at home, it's 1st and 10 on your own 49 yard line. The Colts are in 11 personnel, lined up in shotgun with one receiver on the left,  two WRs and a TE on the right, and the single back to the QB's left (where Clowney is lined up across from Castonzo). You can see that the DBs are playing a reasonable depth off of the receivers, about 5 yards, and the Texans have 6 defenders in the box, showing a pressure look with single high coverage and a likely spy/zone across the middle from the weakside safety.

 

Now, it's late in the game, the Colts need a TD, and they have no timeouts, so you can't go super conservative, but you're up against the two minute warning here and wherever you go with the ball, the clock is going to stop without costing you a lot of time, so the middle of the field is in play. You have a loose bunch at the top of the screen, and the safety being over the top of your 3 man grouping suggests a double team. The weak spot, especially against a pressure look, is the open area in front of the weakside safety, who is 14-15 yards off the LOS when the ball is snapped.

 

 

After the snap, the loose bunch runs an inside/out combo, but that side of the field is flooded with an extra defender, so no one comes free right away. The middle receiver runs a deep corner, which is doubled; the outside receiver runs an 8 yard comeback, and the TE runs a 5 yard out, which is covered. The comeback comes open, but only after the area is cleared by the other two routes.

 

On the single receiver side, Rogers runs 10 yards and simply turns around. The DB never flips and turns, so he's in position to break on the "comeback" route (Rogers never really comes back, and Luck double clutches while looking in his direction). You can see the short middle is still open, even though the safety is crashing down and a linebacker is zoning across the middle.

 

 

By the time Luck double clutches, he's being pressured, and can't come back to the open short comeback at the top of the screen. The deep receiver is doubled, the TE is covered, and Luck is being hit. The ball flails as Luck gets it away, and it falls incomplete in the flat.

 

Here's the end zone angle, from behind the play:

 

You can see from this angle that Luck has good enough protection. It takes 2+ seconds before he's under pressure, and he double clutches before getting hit and throwing the ball.

 

This is a 'take what they give you' situation. The play is well covered from the time the ball is snapped, because the Texans have disguised their coverage pretty well, and they're taking away the deep receiver. Bringing one of the bunch receivers to the other side of the formation would have exposed the coverage, or opened up a better hot opportunity. But even the way the offense lined up, Rogers could have run a quick slant to give Luck a throwing window before the safety was in position to defend the pass. Rogers could have run an actual comeback instead of just turning around and then drifting toward the sideline, giving Luck no window to throw. 

 

The open receiver wound up being none other than Phillip Dorsett, who ran the short comeback on the right side. If Luck throws the ball at the height of his drop, rather than coming back to the left side, Dorsett is open just behind the linebacker, the outside defender is covering the TE out, and the other corner is turning to run with Hilton. 

 

This is a first and 10 play call, around midfield, with the game on the line and no real time constraints to be concerned with. Not only do we play right into the strength of the defense, ignoring the part of the field that looks like it will be open presnap, but the receiver who 'never gets any separation' came open right on time, but didn't get targeted.

That is why I'm most of the time concerned with this receiver group cause in games we desperately need they all disappear and that is how luck gets in so many of those bad turnover situations cause this offense is still very predictable.

[NannyMcafee]

You mean your beef is that this offense has the ability to be number 1 in the league, but shoot themselves in the foot any given drive? 

[Yoshinator]

It's not just bad playcalling (even though that's a big part of it), another problem is the fact that Luck lacks trust in his other receivers. The fact that Hilton had the most receiving yards of any WR last year is a blessing and a curse. It's a blessing because of how talented he is, but it's also a curse because of how dependent Luck is on him. If other teams can take Hilton out of the game effectively, that's game, set and match in a difficult matchup such as the Patriots. Luck needs to gain trust in his other receivers. You can't just throw to Hilton half the time or more. Not only is it predictable, but teams are gameplanning around that already. It seems Luck can't get to his 2nd and 3rd read a lot. However, even when he isn't under pressure, if he can't find anyone open, he'll just fallback to throwing to Hilton a lot anyway (as Superman's example showed). It's a mixture of playbook and Luck on this, but the other receivers need to get involved more. Hopefully at least doyle now he has a new contract, with Moncrief and whoever becomes the no3 WR.

[Mr. Irrelevant]

LOL, somebody needs to send this thread to Ballard ASAP with a "Required Reading" note attached!

 

Great work, Super! 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

30 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

It's not just bad playcalling (even though that's a big part of it), another problem is the fact that Luck lacks trust in his other receivers. The fact that Hilton had the most receiving yards of any WR last year is a blessing and a curse. It's a blessing because of how talented he is, but it's also a curse because of how dependent Luck is on him. If other teams can take Hilton out of the game effectively, that's game, set and match in a difficult matchup such as the Patriots. Luck needs to gain trust in his other receivers. You can't just throw to Hilton half the time or more. Not only is it predictable, but teams are gameplanning around that already. It seems Luck can't get to his 2nd and 3rd read a lot. However, even when he isn't under pressure, if he can't find anyone open, he'll just fallback to throwing to Hilton a lot anyway (as Superman's example showed). It's a mixture of playbook and Luck on this, but the other receivers need to get involved more. Hopefully at least doyle now he has a new contract, with Moncrief and whoever becomes the no3 WR.

 

Exactly, and I think that is the reason Doyle was a Must Resign Deal because I think Luck finally trusted him last season. That alone should increase the short passing game, LOL. 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Come to think of it, Ballard said he had a conversation with Luck when he come aboard. He refused to tell what they had talked about, but if it was a honest conversation, then I think they both got something to think about afterwards. Not sure either of them think that we have gotten the best out of the pieces on offense. 

 

Defense has been the main focus this offseason, but Ballard will keep a keen eye on the offense this year, because it needs some fixing beyond just personal.

[NagelHausForge]

This is a great analysis of what many of us had been saying last season.  The play calling was suspect in a lot of the crucial downs.  Add onto that that it seemed Luck had a serious lack of trust in any receiver not named Hilton or Doyle and you basically were playing with 2 receivers.  Add to that Luck's apparent distrust of the O line and the willingness of our OC to abandon the run in crucial situations and its like shooting fish in a barrel for a defense. 

 

I really hope we see more creativity with the O this year and the proper use of the WRs and RBs we have.

[lester]

I appreciate posts like this.

[TKnight24]

[life long]

Keep these coming Superman! Your breakdowns are always spot on. Sometimes I feel some die hard fans know more than some current NFL coaches and staffers. Spending your whole life loving your hobby can nearly turn you into an expert. Case in point, Superman. As well as many of our moderators. 

[DougDew]

How does an OC know how the defense will line up when he calls the play?  

 

Aren't most of these problems the result of Luck not recognizing where the open receiver will be based upon his presnap read and how the WR patterns fit into the defense that's presented?  If all patterns will be covered, change the play at the LOS  to one that will have a open receiver in the coverage the defense is showing.

 

I know Luck isn't Manning, but the issues aren't all on the OC are they?

[21isSuperman]

CC: Rob Chudzinksi, Chuck Pagano

[pgt_rob]

I often wonder where people find the time to create heavily detailed posts like this one. It's good information, not digging at you Superman because it's an intelligent post and provides great insight. You must be bored at work.

[jseg18]

That 1st down play bugs me the most. How do we not run on first down, with that much time. Like Superman says, that single side could have gotten us in a manageable situation if he runs a slant. He could've ran that comeback to the outside that 88 & 87 used to move the chains on.

 

 

*

[JRoss1997]

Thanks Superman!

I suspect that some of this was covered in the Irsay-Gruden meetings in Houston.  Even though most think that Irsay went in an attempt to talk Gruden into coaching, I believe they talked about ways the Colts must improve.  Gruden loves to illustrate with game tape and they spent nearly nine hours reviewing.  Hopefully points such as this was included. 

[Superman]

5 hours ago, jameszeigler834 said:

That is why I'm most of the time concerned with this receiver group cause in games we desperately need they all disappear and that is how luck gets in so many of those bad turnover situations cause this offense is still very predictable.

 

Look at the routes they're being instructed to run. It's hard for me to fault the receivers here.

[Steamboat_Shaun]

13 hours ago, Superman said:

This is a 'take what they give you' situation. The play is well covered from the time the ball is snapped, because the Texans have disguised their coverage pretty well, and they're taking away the deep receiver. Bringing one of the bunch receivers to the other side of the formation would have exposed the coverage, or opened up a better hot opportunity. But even the way the offense lined up, Rogers could have run a quick slant to give Luck a throwing window before the safety was in position to defend the pass. Rogers could have run an actual comeback instead of just turning around and then drifting toward the sideline, giving Luck no window to throw.

 

This might be the Colts' offense biggest weakness: they're very bad at identifying what the defense is willing to give, and instead usually play right into their hands by calling the worst possible play at the worst possible time.

[Superman]

4 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Luck needs to gain trust in his other receivers. You can't just throw to Hilton half the time or more. Not only is it predictable, but teams are gameplanning around that already.

 

It comes back to coaching. I'm fine with putting some of the blame on Luck, but when you come out of the two minute warning and you don't drill into the QB that the defense is keying in on WR1 every down, you're missing an opportunity to coach well. If they're restricting his ability to adjust routes before the snap -- which I have no way of knowing -- then that's on coaching. If they're not instructing him to adjust routes, especially against off coverage, that's on coaching.  They have to drill these adjustments into him. 

 

That's why I was talking about how the Texans likely instructed their secondary not to let Hilton beat them. It's what Belichick does -- try not to get destroyed by the other team's best players, and live with the results if someone else steps up. Those bracket coverages are textbook Belichick. But we keep forcing the ball to Hilton, rather than catching the defense overpursuing and hitting a big first down conversion.

[Superman]

4 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Defense has been the main focus this offseason, but Ballard will keep a keen eye on the offense this year, because it needs some fixing beyond just personal.

 

I think the offensive personnel is fine. I think the play calling must improve, and Luck's execution and awareness can be tightened up as well. 

[Superman]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

How does an OC know how the defense will line up when he calls the play?  

 

Aren't most of these problems the result of Luck not recognizing where the open receiver will be based upon his presnap read and how the WR patterns fit into the defense that's presented?  If all patterns will be covered, change the play at the LOS  to one that will have a open receiver in the coverage the defense is showing.

 

I know Luck isn't Manning, but the issues aren't all on the OC are they?

 

No, they aren't all on the OC. Two of those plays are on Luck, as receivers came open but didn't get the ball (Dorsett on 1st down, Doyle on 3rd down).

 

But what Luck does on the field is at least partly a reflection of coaching. And even though Luck missed an open receiver on 1st down, I still hate the "route" the left side receiver is running, and our outside receivers do that a lot. It's a glaring example of a lack of hot routes in our passing game, especially against off coverage. (Both outside receivers did the same thing on 3rd down; this is Chud's play call out of the two minute warning.) The open man on 1st down was at best the third progression, so if pressure is coming, you might not even get there; meanwhile, the left side receiver is running directly toward the defender, then just turns around in front of him. This isn't a route, and it doesn't belong in our offense. 

[Superman]

2 hours ago, pgt_rob said:

I often wonder where people find the time to create heavily detailed posts like this one. It's good information, not digging at you Superman because it's an intelligent post and provides great insight. You must be bored at work.

 

I'm itching for football this time of year. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

9 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm itching for football this time of year. 

Me too, luckily I at least have Baseball being a huge Cubs fan. Some people find Baseball boring and aren't into it much like I am not with Hockey but it will carry me until we take the field in Pre-Season. Great stuff by the way with this Thread, that is some detailed stuff!

[Mr. Irrelevant]

27 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think the offensive personnel is fine. I think the play calling must improve, and Luck's execution and awareness can be tightened up as well. 

 

Yeah, this quote from Schottenheimer on colts.com got my attention:

 

• “We say this all the time, ‘Andrew should not be a double-digit interception guy.’ Like that’s the phrase that we use. He’s just too good of a player. So again, if he can eliminate some of those decision-interceptions – I think there are five or six of them – those numbers drop significantly. You’re going to throw interceptions. It just happens. Normally they’re bad throws that cause those, but the decisions, if we can eliminate those, that’ll obviously help him drop down. That’s kind of the number we’ve been using. He should throw seven, eight, something like that. He had 13 (interceptions) last year.” — Colts quarterbacks coach Brian Schottenheimer, on if he believed the mistakes made by Luck last season were due to decision-making or mechanics

 

10-Quotes-Colts’-Coordinators-Position-Coaches-Talk

[chad72]

13 hours ago, Superman said:

I won't diagram the 4th down play. It's just too bad. I say that the Colts don't enough screens, and I mean that, but the likely reason we don't run them is because we suck at them.

 

But that doesn't stop us from trying to run a screen pass on the biggest 4th down of the season, with the division hanging in the balance.

 

Go to the 9:35 mark: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QrKjZQICrU

 

This is the series of plays that essentially cost us the playoffs last season. This is what we ran when on the deciding possession of a huge divisional rival matchup, late in the season. You see weird, ineffective routes being run on the outside. Missed open receivers. Play calls that send receivers into the strength of the defense, but rarely into the open areas of the field. No hot routes. A complete inability to run a screen pass, which has become a staple play for most modern offenses (even college teams live on bubble screens, although they send their linemen too far down the field most of the time). There's an over reliance on Hilton, and a failure to capitalize when defenses zero in on him. 

 

And yet, our offense is top ten in yards/game, points, 3rd down percentage, top half in yards/play, our passing game is top ten in multiple categories, including yards, TDs, yards/play, first down percentage, and 20+ yard plays. The offense is already dynamic, especially the passing game. At times, it's downright lethal. 

 

I think it would be that much better if we ran better route combinations, made better use of short areas, let the receivers try to gain YAC, and for goodness sake, learned to run a proper screen pass. 

 

That is why I feel a new WR coach was hired as well. Fight for the ball, fight against the defender in man coverage, identify your zones quickly and provide a quick target for your QB, and be spatially aware of where everyone else is on the play (assuming everyone does the right thing on a play called). All these are overlooked aspects of the WR skill position that we took so much for granted because of Peyton, Marvin, and Reggie being around. 

[DougDew]

16 hours ago, Superman said:

 

No, they aren't all on the OC. Two of those plays are on Luck, as receivers came open but didn't get the ball (Dorsett on 1st down, Doyle on 3rd down).

 

But what Luck does on the field is at least partly a reflection of coaching. And even though Luck missed an open receiver on 1st down, I still hate the "route" the left side receiver is running, and our outside receivers do that a lot. It's a glaring example of a lack of hot routes in our passing game, especially against off coverage. (Both outside receivers did the same thing on 3rd down; this is Chud's play call out of the two minute warning.) The open man on 1st down was at best the third progression, so if pressure is coming, you might not even get there; meanwhile, the left side receiver is running directly toward the defender, then just turns around in front of him. This isn't a route, and it doesn't belong in our offense. 

Ok thanks.  I've followed your posts about the passing offense and agree 100%.  The mention of how the route trees within a particular play don't complement each other, too many vertical or slow developing routes based upon the down and distance or game situation. It also contributes, may be even causes, players like Luck and Dorsett to not develop like they should.  Their options for success are stifled based upon the receiver patterns, possibly even OL/TE blocking combinations not being as complementary as they should.

 

You've mentioned how the passing offense reflects a Norv Turner/Don Coryell basis which has not been modernized enough for defenses in 2016.  I agree but I don't have the technical knowledge to explain it.

 

[Dingus McGirt]

Last season, I posted that it looked like Andrew didn't really read defenses the way Colt's fans had been accustomed to over recent years.  Thanks for the affirmation.  :^)

[chad72]

33 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

Last season, I posted that it looked like Andrew didn't really read defenses the way Colt's fans had been accustomed to over recent years.  Thanks for the affirmation.  :^)

 

Mistakes of the past, it is like deja vu. Peyton never really took as many check downs till probably the year he checked it down to Addai and Rhodes A LOT on our way to winning the SB. I still remember Edge open in the flat on the 3rd down when Peyton was trying to get Vanderjagt closer on the 46 yd FG that he missed WAY WIDE RIGHT in that Steelers playoff game. But Peyton chose to go deep to Reggie Wayne for an incompletion.

 

It is this pride or belief in your ability instead of doing the simple things that are tested in a "heat of the moment" situation that QBs need to master. It was easier for Brady to master it because he was put in early in his career in situations where he didn't have to do much due to the help of his D. Once Brady realized that was a winning formula, he combined it with his increasing QB prowess to become more deadly. But when you start off with not much team support, the tendency for the QB to do a bit more and not take the simplest and easy read creeps in, IMO. I remember year 1 when Arians berated Luck for not checking it down to Donald Brown in the flat for an easy completion and his pass almost picked off in the end zone when he wanted more. I hope Luck learns faster than Peyton on that front, that your role on the team is to take the highest probability play that is the simplest to execute, and not to try to do too much.

 

When a "Top 100 in the NFL" segment aired and it was Brady's prowess that needed to spoken about, the speaker was Ray Lewis. It was very interesting that the first thing Ray Lewis mentioned was Brady checking it down to Kevin Faulk in a SB a couple of yards short of the 1st down on a critical 3rd down trusting his RB to get the remainder of the yardage and not attempting anything complicated in a big moment. Now, after witnessing Peyton and witnessing Luck, I see what Ray saw, the QB coach needs to re-iterate the "don't complicate it philosophy" to Luck till he gets it. It is really that simple. The KISS principle really does work, however smart and talented you are as a QB.  

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

Mistakes of the past, it is like deja vu. Peyton never really took as many check downs till probably the year he checked it down to Addai and Rhodes A LOT on our way to winning the SB. I still remember Edge open in the flat on the 3rd down when Peyton was trying to get Vanderjagt closer on the 46 yd FG that he missed WAY WIDE RIGHT in that Steelers playoff game. But Peyton chose to go deep to Reggie Wayne for an incompletion.

 

I remember year 1 when Arians berated Luck for not checking it down to Donald Brown in the flat for an easy completion and his pass almost picked off in the end zone when he wanted more. I hope Luck learns faster than Peyton on that front, that your role on the team is to take the highest probability play that is the simplest to execute, and not to try to do too much.

 

I watched that game just recently and I thought Peyton's decision making was greatly inferior to how he managed the offense in the ensuing seasons.  He had protection issues but it seemed like his desire to not check down nearly all game played right into the hands of how the Steelers were attacking the O.  That's back when Belicheck also said to ignore the Colts run game because PM couldn't lay off wanting to throw to his receivers down field, and that's how you defend him.

[colt18]

Great post Supes. 

 

 

You should do a breakdown on the other games we lost, like the Jags and Lions games.

[chad72]

21 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I watched that game just recently and I thought Peyton's decision making was greatly inferior to how he managed the offense in the ensuing seasons.  He had protection issues but it seemed like his desire to not check down nearly all game played right into the hands of how the Steelers were attacking the O.  That's back when Belicheck also said to ignore the Colts run game because PM couldn't lay off wanting to throw to his receivers down field, and that's how you defend him.

 

Yep. No wonder the year he trusted his RBs and OL to do the dirty work more, he won the SB with the Colts during the 2006 season, which was a stellar QB season based on his career low INTs thrown and high 3rd down conversion pct rate that carried on to the playoffs. That is why the Patriots also played the LBs at a greater depth to defend the pass vs more up field to worry about the run during those 2003, 2004 playoff games. 

 

With the Broncos, Peyton knew exactly what he had left in his tank which wasn't much, he even waved off a pass play before the half in the SB vs the Panthers, something even Kubiak chuckled about when America's Game aired. 

[Superman]

13 minutes ago, colt18 said:

Great post Supes. 

 

 

You should do a breakdown on the other games we lost, like the Jags and Lions games.

 

I'm going to do some plays from the Chiefs game next. That one was brutal. 

[Lucky Colts Fan]

I know on 1st down the offense has 15 less seconds to run the play, but they have time to plan a 1st-down play on the sidelines before the offense takes the field.  It seems like the offense should be better prepared when they get the ball.

 

You would think they would run a pre-snap movement just to give Luck a heads-up on zone-vs-man coverage every play.  I see that when I play people in Madden, and that's how I know my opponent really knows how to run an offense, they run motion every play to get a feel for man-vs-zone.  It's naive to just trust in your play-call and run it without paying attention to what the defense is doing.

 

Does Luck trust too much in his OC?  Maybe he needs to start running the offense like Manning did.  Run motions and audibles right up until the play clock says :01 so that he can get the offense in the best play.  The offense needs to be able to adapt and take whatever the defense gives them on any given play, whether it's running it up the gut, throwing the ball deep, or being able to complete short passes/screens.

[Superman]

2 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Mistakes of the past, it is like deja vu. Peyton never really took as many check downs till probably the year he checked it down to Addai and Rhodes A LOT on our way to winning the SB. I still remember Edge open in the flat on the 3rd down when Peyton was trying to get Vanderjagt closer on the 46 yd FG that he missed WAY WIDE RIGHT in that Steelers playoff game. But Peyton chose to go deep to Reggie Wayne for an incompletion.

 

It is this pride or belief in your ability instead of doing the simple things that are tested in a "heat of the moment" situation that QBs need to master. It was easier for Brady to master it because he was put in early in his career in situations where he didn't have to do much due to the help of his D. Once Brady realized that was a winning formula, he combined it with his increasing QB prowess to become more deadly. But when you start off with not much team support, the tendency for the QB to do a bit more and not take the simplest and easy read creeps in, IMO. I remember year 1 when Arians berated Luck for not checking it down to Donald Brown in the flat for an easy completion and his pass almost picked off in the end zone when he wanted more. I hope Luck learns faster than Peyton on that front, that your role on the team is to take the highest probability play that is the simplest to execute, and not to try to do too much.

 

When a "Top 100 in the NFL" segment aired and it was Brady's prowess that needed to spoken about, the speaker was Ray Lewis. It was very interesting that the first thing Ray Lewis mentioned was Brady checking it down to Kevin Faulk in a SB a couple of yards short of the 1st down on a critical 3rd down trusting his RB to get the remainder of the yardage and not attempting anything complicated in a big moment. Now, after witnessing Peyton and witnessing Luck, I see what Ray saw, the QB coach needs to re-iterate the "don't complicate it philosophy" to Luck till he gets it. It is really that simple. The KISS principle really does work, however smart and talented you are as a QB.  

 

I agree with all of this, but just want to point out that checkdowns are different than hot routes. A short depth of target doesn't mean the play call was designed to get the ball out quickly. Gore, Turbin and Ferguson combined for 84 catches, which isn't awful (not great either), so dropping it off to the backs isn't necessarily a problem.

 

And Luck showed great awareness on Gore's big catch and run against TN, not forcing it downfield but dumping it off to Gore with no one around him. But one of the things that made that play work and allowed Luck the time to come back down to Gore is that the pass rush couldn't take off to the QB, due to the gimmicky nature of the play. We don't have to call trick plays to slow the pass rush down, but some bootlegs and rollouts would have a similar effect, and we don't call those often enough for my liking. Of course, that's more of a Kubiak thing, which Luck would be a great fit for (he's more like Elway than Manning, IMO). 

 

Where I think we're lacking is in identifying coverages presnap (or recognizing defensive trends and calling plays to counter them) and adjusting a hot route to make sure the QB has a quick outlet if he needs it, or as a drive starter (4 yards on 1st and 10 in that Houston game would have been tremendous; same thing on the Raiders drive that started deep in Colts territory).