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ESPN Power Index Predicts Colts Win the AFC South....


NewColtsFan

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....   by a very narrow margin.       Using ESPN analytics,  they ran 10,000 simulations on our 2017 schedule and predict that the Colts will win 8.5 games.     They give the Colts a 36% chance of winning.      They give us a narrow margin of winning the division over Tennessee who they have with 8.3 wins and a 30 percent chance of winning.

 

I'm cutting and pasting a small part of the overall article....     they did breakdowns for every division,  I'm only showing the AFC South....

 

 

2017 AFC South Projections

 

TEAM          WINS       LOSSES       WIN DIVISION

Colts              8.5              7.4                36.0%

Titans            8.3              7.7                30.6%

Texans          7.8              8.2                22.5%

Jaguars         6.8              9.2               10.9% 

 

 

The AFC South might end up being the NFL's most competitive division in 2017. All four teams have at least a 10 percent chance of winning the title, and none of FPI's predicted division winners has a worse chance to win than the Colts at 36 percent. Part of the reason each team has a chance to compete is the relatively easy schedule each team faces (at least based on what we know about these teams three months before the start of the season). FPI has four of the nine easiest schedules in the league belonging to the members of the AFC South.

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22 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

....   by a very narrow margin.       Using ESPN analytics,  they ran 10,000 simulations on our 2017 schedule and predict that the Colts will win 8.5 games.     They give the Colts a 36% chance of winning.      They give us a narrow margin of winning the division over Tennessee who they have with 8.3 wins and a 30 percent chance of winning.

 

I'm cutting and pasting a small part of the overall article....     they did breakdowns for every division,  I'm only showing the AFC South....

 

 

2017 AFC South Projections

 

TEAM          WINS       LOSSES       WIN DIVISION

Colts              8.5              7.4                36.0%

Titans            8.3              7.7                30.6%

Texans          7.8              8.2                22.5%

Jaguars         6.8              9.2               10.9% 

 

 

The AFC South might end up being the NFL's most competitive division in 2017. All four teams have at least a 10 percent chance of winning the title, and none of FPI's predicted division winners has a worse chance to win than the Colts at 36 percent. Part of the reason each team has a chance to compete is the relatively easy schedule each team faces (at least based on what we know about these teams three months before the start of the season). FPI has four of the nine easiest schedules in the league belonging to the members of the AFC South.

I think we get it at 10-6, Texans 9-7, Titans 9-7, Jags 6-10. My early projections.

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33 minutes ago, TKnight24 said:

Until the Jaguars actually put together a winning season I'll never take them seriously. Always win on paper, then go and win 3 games 

 

Blake Bortles has more pick 6's than career wins I do believe 

You do make a valid point TK. My only reservation now is 2 words: Tom Coughlin. They won under him before [playoffs I mean] & while he's not patrolling the sidelines again; he knows what winning football looks like, sounds like, feels like, & requires. 

 

I won't predict a reversal of fortune here & now, but I'd be lying if I didn't admit that I was a little nervous. 

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Quote

I really don't put too much thought into pre season rankings.

Every season there are around 6 teams who do a lot better than ranked just as there are about 6 teams who fall and fall fast.

Injuries can play a huge part with the loss of a QB or a couple of key players on any one given team.

 

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2 hours ago, southwest1 said:

You do make a valid point TK. My only reservation now is 2 words: Tom Coughlin. They won under him before [playoffs I mean] & while he's not patrolling the sidelines again; he knows what winning football looks like, sounds like, feels like, & requires. 

 

I won't predict a reversal of fortune here & now, but I'd be lying if I didn't admit that I was a little nervous. 

 

I think they have a decent amount of talent on the defensive side of the ball and it's not like Coughlin hasn't had success overcoming a pick happy QB with a strong defense. 

 

If Fournette can catch fire they could be dangerous.

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1 hour ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

I think they have a decent amount of talent on the defensive side of the ball and it's not like Coughlin hasn't had success overcoming a pick happy QB with a strong defense. 

 

If Fournette can catch fire they could be dangerous.

I'm not worried about the Jags at all. 

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I like what the Jags have on defense and offense honestly.  They could wind up making a jump this year.  I don't think the Jacksonville game is a game you can look at and just automatically check the win box anymore.  With that being said I still don't have any big concerns about us coming out worse than them.  

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6 hours ago, TKnight24 said:

Until the Jaguars actually put together a winning season I'll never take them seriously. Always win on paper, then go and win 3 games 

 

Blake Bortles has more pick 6's than career wins I do believe 

I'd take Bortles over Savage any day. 

 

Savage is close to 100 attempts with zero touchdowns.

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I said that before. The Texans have recently been the division contender rival, ever since 2011 when Peyton went down.

 

2011-2012 Texans, 2013-2014 Colts, 2015-2016 Texans, and now it is time for the Colts. :) 

 

Jags and Titans, when the Jags win enough against the rest of the league and the Titans at least split with us, I will take both of them seriously.

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Jags have one nasty defense, at least on paper. Good coach could coach that unit to a top 5 D IMO.

 

I guess their season depends on how much or little Bortles screws up.

 

Titans haven't improved enough to win the division but they are pretty well set up for the future IMO. Texans have pretty big questionmarks at QB. And oline.

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1 hour ago, That Guy said:

I'd take Bortles over Savage any day. 

 

Savage is close to 100 attempts with zero touchdowns.

 

But there is a good chance that come Week 1, Watson is going to be their QB.  

 

Texans are better then that analysis gives them I think.  

 

Jags. . . They are always the offseason champs but never the on the field champs. 

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This is definitely the worst division in the AFC right now. Not one of these teams should be taken seriously as SB contenders until proven otherwise. The problem with this division is it's so even, that literally any team has a chance to win the division. The Jaguars could sweep the Colts (even though they'll probably go 6-10 this year, two wins will be vs us), Colts will sweep the Titans, and the Texans will sweep the division. I just hope the division doesn't go 3-3 vs each other besides the Texans again and let them make it on the tiebreaker. It seems everyone in the division matches up poorly vs Hou. I think right now it's about developing a team that can compete, and getting Luck 100% healthy. Without those two things, we don't have a chance, and that's not even including the anchor of a coach and coaching staff holding us down. Best case scenario, we win the division and possibly a playoff game with another big draft and FA period next year to fill in the rest of our weaknesses.

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Just now, TheRustonRifle#7 said:

The Macho Man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  He actually was good enough to play pro baseball, just not on the MLB level.

Back when Wrestling was good. Delivered some of the best promos ever. Also loved his slim jim commercials lol.

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4 hours ago, #12. said:

We're winning the division?  Making the leap from 8-8 to 9-7?  

 

Takes balls to predict something like that.

 

3 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

This is definitely the worst division in the AFC right now. Not one of these teams should be taken seriously as SB contenders until proven otherwise. The problem with this division is it's so even, that literally any team has a chance to win the division. The Jaguars could sweep the Colts (even though they'll probably go 6-10 this year, two wins will be vs us), Colts will sweep the Titans, and the Texans will sweep the division. I just hope the division doesn't go 3-3 vs each other besides the Texans again and let them make it on the tiebreaker. It seems everyone in the division matches up poorly vs Hou. I think right now it's about developing a team that can compete, and getting Luck 100% healthy. Without those two things, we don't have a chance, and that's not even including the anchor of a coach and coaching staff holding us down. Best case scenario, we win the division and possibly a playoff game with another big draft and FA period next year to fill in the rest of our weaknesses.

 

2 hours ago, AZColt11 said:

I could make a case for any of the teams winning this division.  I think all of them are very mediocre.

 

18 minutes ago, BOTT said:

Luckily, the afc as a whole is mediocre.

 

What are you Negative Nancies talking about?  The Colts are the best team in the history of any sport in any universe!

 

Image result for storming out gif

 

19-0!  19-0!  19-0!

 

Image result for storming out gif

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2 minutes ago, indyagent17 said:

I'll be pretty upset if a Colts only win nine games this year. We have the easiest schedule in the league and our defense should be at least 10 positions higher or better than it was last season

On paper it's the easiest schedule, but that can change in a year's time. The defense will be much better if our players from the draft and FA hit, but it's not set in stone yet. Also, everyone else participated in the same draft as us, so they improved on paper as well. Luck has to be healthy and we have to fix the mistakes and slow starts from last year or it won't make a difference. A division win is likely, but it'll take a huge jump to get past that this year unless we absolutely nailed the draft and FA, and everyone stays healthy for the most part. I'm cautiously optimistic for now (pending Luck plays the whole year).

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17 hours ago, a06cc said:

We're not the weakest division. It's the AFC North now as of this year. Last season it was us for sure in terms of draft positions. 

We will be one of the most competitive divisions this year. I would put money on it. 

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17 hours ago, a06cc said:

We're not the weakest division. It's the AFC North now as of this year. Last season it was us for sure in terms of draft positions. 

The NFC West is arguably worse too. Seattle is still Good but they aren't the powerhouse they were 2 years ago. The Cards, Rams, and 49ers are a mess. The Cards could win 9 or 10 games (MAYBE?), the other 2 stink.

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Just now, The Peytonator said:

My hunch is that we win, the Jags take second at around 9-7, the Titans are third at 8-8, and the Texans regress to about a 5 win year. I know the Jags always have a "good" offseason, but this is the first time I've believed it in a while. 

 

Switch the Jags and Texans, and you are probably spot-on.  Colts with maybe 12 wins.

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3 hours ago, indyagent17 said:

I'll be pretty upset if a Colts only win nine games this year. We have the easiest schedule in the league and our defense should be at least 10 positions higher or better than it was last season

Why should it be 10 places higher? Just curious.

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4 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah except for 1 problem, the huge elephant being the Patriots are in the room.

 

patience.  At this point I'm not concerned about competing against the elite teams.

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4 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The NFC West is arguably worse too. Seattle is still Good but they aren't the powerhouse they were 2 years ago. The Cards, Rams, and 49ers are a mess. The Cards could win 9 or 10 games (MAYBE?), the other 2 stink.

I wouldn't count on the Rams stinking.  That defense could be quite formidable with Bum Jr in charge.

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