ESPN's Bill Barnwell grades every team's entire offseason - Colts get an A-

[bababooey]

 

Link for AFC South article, you can click on the right side to see the other divisions as well (not all are finished, they will be wrapped up by Wednesday 5/24)

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwell2017GradesAFCSouth/bill-barnwell-2017-nfl-offseason-report-card-free-agency-draft-afc-south-houston-texans-indianapolis-colts-jacksonville-jaguars-tennessee-titans#IND

 

Indianapolis Colts

What went right

Jim Irsay fired Ryan Grigson and replaced him with Chris Ballard. It's hard to think of an NFL general manager who did less with more than Grigson, who had Andrew Luck fall into his lap with the first pick in his first draft and spent most of the next five years putting obstacles in the QB's way. Grigson had a solid 2012 draft after Luck, but then struggled mightily in the years to come while mostly striking out in free agency. With an ailing Luck missing time in 2015 and 2016, the Colts fell far enough for Grigson to lose his job.

 

Ballard, his replacement, spent time in a pair of successful organizations by working with the Brian Urlacher-era Bears before joining John Dorsey as he revitalized Kansas City's roster. That alone isn't enough to prove Ballard will succeed -- Grigson, after all, won a Super Bowl as a scout in St. Louis before enjoying years of success with the Eagles -- but Ballard's first offseason with the team has been very promising, both in terms of attacking weaknesses and identifying value within the market.

 

Ballard bought in bulk to shore up the defense. After years of neglect and poor drafting, the Colts sadly aren't one star player away from turning things around. They gave tons of snaps to replacement-level talent during the past few years, a combination of mid-to-late round picks forced into meaningful roles along with big-name free agents who failed to live up to expectations.

 

In his first offseason with the team, Ballard rightfully took the quantity approach to shoring up the league's fourth-worst defense per DVOA from a year ago. He targeted useful rotation players from other teams and came away with shockingly good deals, especially given how desperate teams were to acquire pass-rushers and defensive pieces.

 

Take Jabaal Sheard, who was a three-year starter in Cleveland before playing as a solid rotation end for the Patriots after Chandler Jones left last year. Sheard recorded 13 sacks in two seasons with the Pats and picked up a three-year, $25 million deal to join Indy. Compare his deal to the three-year, $27 million contract handed out to Miami's Andre Branch, who spent four years as a relatively anonymous piece in Jacksonville before putting together a competent half-season playing alongside two superstars in Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake last year. The last time Sheard hit the market (2015), the Patriots thought he was worth $5.5 million per year. The last time Branch hit the market, the league thought he was worth half that.

 

Of course, there's more to the deal than the average annual numbers. Sheard's deal has $9.9 million in real guarantees, all of which comes in 2017; if Sheard disappoints away from the halo of Bill Belichick, the Colts have the flexibility to get out. Branch, meanwhile, has nearly twice as much -- $16.8 million -- guaranteed in his deal, despite a much shorter track record as a pro. Indy ended up with the better player and more flexibility at a fraction of the cost. That's the difference between a well-run organization and one throwing money at flashes in the pan who it hopes are multiyear solutions.

 

Sheard isn't the only one. John Simon, who was very effective as a third edge rusher in Houston, came on board for a three-year deal with just $5.5 million in guarantees, again all in Year 1. Barkevious Mingo and Sean Spence are linebackers who could be useful if spotted in modest roles while contributing on special teams. Even Johnathan Hankins, the team's biggest free-agent signing, is on a three-year, $27 million deal with $10 million guaranteed, all coming this year.

 

The Colts have brought in a ton of young, short-term defensive help with upside in what will be an evaluation year. Grigson made some moves like this early in his tenure with Indy, targeting players like Greg Toler and Ricky Jean-Francois, but they were on far larger deals and expected to be long-term starters at their positions. With the sort of contracts Ballard is handing out, the guys who stick will be under contract for a couple of more seasons, while the ones who don't will be giving way to a more sustainable defensive model.

 

The emphasis on defense was even stronger during the draft. The Colts added extra fourth- and fifth-round picks by dealing Dwayne Allen (and a sixth-round pick) before trading down with the 49ers during the draft. Indy ended up with eight selections, all of which came among the top 161 picks. Outside of the pick haul Grigson inherited before his first season on the job, his four previous drafts produced a total of just 17 selections among those top 161 picks. There's no specific meaning to having a top-161 pick, but the point still stands: Ballard added picks that weren't meaningless seventh-rounders.

 

Using Chase Stuart's draft chart and including the draft picks traded for Trent Richardson and Vontae Davis, Grigson used nearly twice as much of his draft capital on offense (141.6 points) as he did on defense (73.2 points). Even if you take out Luck, it's still 107 points on offense to 73.2 points of defense. Grigson invested in free-agent defenders, but it's still a problem.

 

In his first draft, Ballard invested nearly four times as much of his draft capital in defenders (24.5 points) as he did on offensive players (6.3 points). Indianapolis' top three picks were all defenders, led by safety Malik Hooker, who fell to the Colts at 15 after most mock drafts had him going in the top 10. Six of Indy's eight selections were on the defensive side, and the other two were at positions of need along the offensive line and at running back.

 

No draft strategy is foolproof. These guys may not work out. Chuck Pagano hasn't done a great job of bringing along young defensive talent in Indy, and this new batch of defenders could fall victim to the same fate. As a coherent plan, though, what Indianapolis did this offseason made a ton of sense.

 

What went wrong

The offensive line still needs work. I'm not just cutting and pasting this from years past, although I could have done so. Outside of signing Titans backup Brian Schwenke and drafting 6-foot-8 Southern California behemoth Zach Banner as a run-blocking project in the fourth round, the Colts are running things back with the same offensive line. That group hasn't been very effective, although it's still a young line. This wasn't a great draft for offensive linemen, and the cost of signing linemen in free agency was exorbitant this offseason, but the Colts may regret not making one big splash to upgrade the right side in front of Luck.

 

What's next?

Look into help at inside linebacker. The Colts are still pretty thin on the interior, where undrafted free agent Edwin Jackson was thrust into the lineup last year. Sean Spence could figure into a starting role, but there are possibilities still available in the free-agent market. Daryl Smith hasn't slipped all that much and started 11 games as a strong-side linebacker for the Bucs last year. DeAndre Levy was a superstar two years ago, but injuries have kept him off the field; he could shift inside in a 3-4. Daryl Washington has spent the past three years suspended, but he was reinstated in April before being released by the Cardinals. Stability or upside, Indy has options.

 

Grade: A-

[bababooey]

Also should be known that he gave us the highest grade in the AFC South (Texans C+, Jags B+, Titans B) and we have the highest grade in the NFL right now with NFC South/West and AFC West coming out later this week, no other team currently is above B+ except us.

 

Edit 5/23: NFC South is out, we still have the best grade and only A-

[Myles]

This seems pretty accurate.   All could change, but I like it on paper.   

[ColtsFanMikeC]

Based on the way Clark played in the last 2 games of these season and how Haeg and Good developed over the course of the season, I actually feel pretty comfortable with our OL.

 

Kelly was very solid as a rookie and should only improve -- Haeg, I thought, was solid though he needed to add some strength this offseason (which there isn't really reason to believe he couldn't have done that) and showed that he could play both G and T. 

 

Schwenke has also started in this league and can play G or C.

 

There's always room for improvement, but IMO, this is the best line Luck will have had to date in his NFL Career (that's not really saying much, but I am more optimistic about the OL going into this season than I have been in a long time). 

[NewColtsFan]

 

Around the NFL, there is still great concern about our OL.

 

The reason why I don't share that concern to the same level is one man.....    Joe Philbin.

 

I think Philbin has told Ballard the pieces are here,  they just need time and experience.   

 

So,  in Philbin I trust and I'm impressed that Ballard,  in his first year,  trusted Philbin to this extent.   I like Banner very much and believe he'll be part of our starting OL in the years to come.

 

But all in all,  Philbin is the guy who makes this go.....

 

 

[lollygagger8]

 

[bababooey]

17 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Around the NFL, there is still great concern about our OL.

 

The reason why I don't share that concern to the same level is one man.....    Joe Philbin.

 

I think Philbin has told Ballard the pieces are here,  they just need time and experience.   

 

So,  in Philbin I trust and I'm impressed that Ballard,  in his first year,  trusted Philbin to this extent.   I like Banner very much and believe he'll be part of our starting OL in the years to come.

 

But all in all,  Philbin is the guy who makes this go.....

 

 

I know we are biased but I agree, we see it more granular than they do. 3/5ths of the OL could start on any team. The right side is coming along, but was good enough to win 8 games, and if our defense moves from 30th to even 25 then that is the difference between winning and losing games against Detroit in week 1, Texans on SNF, and Jags in London.

 

Until the Jags aren't picking in the top 5, I do not care how much people are in love with them. Until the Titans can beat us (it's been years), I do not care how much people are in love with them. Until the Texans win a playoff game against a team with an actual QB that we didn't have to take out for them, I do not care how much people are in love with them. 

 

We had what it took to win the division last year and blew it, we had as good of an offseason as you can have on paper, let's hope things start to come together.

 

 

[BR-549]

13 minutes ago, bababooey said:

I know we are biased but I agree, we see it more granular than they do. 3/5ths of the OL could start on any team. The right side is coming along, but was good enough to win 8 games, and if our defense moves from 30th to even 25 then that is the difference between winning and losing games against Detroit in week 1, Texans on SNF, and Jags in London.

 

Until the Jags aren't picking in the top 5, I do not care how much people are in love with them. Until the Titans can beat us (it's been years), I do not care how much people are in love with them. Until the Texans win a playoff game against a team with an actual QB that we didn't have to take out for them, I do not care how much people are in love with them. 

 

We had what it took to win the division last year and blew it, we had as good of an offseason as you can have on paper, let's hope things start to come together.

 

 

And ...

FWIW, I get the feeling players are buying in now, mostly because they see real leadership and decision making in our GM.

No source, just a gut feeling.

[bababooey]

6 minutes ago, BR-549 said:

And ...

FWIW, I get the feeling players are buying in now, mostly because they see real leadership and decision making in our GM.

No source, just a gut feeling.

When you bring in guys from good defensive teams like Hankins, Sheard, and Simon, in addition to Ballard from Kansas City and then have a strong draft and a rejuvenated group of guys that are all Grigson era guys you may see us take a 2015 Carolina/Denver or 2016 Atlanta like step and exceed expectations similar to 2012.

[BR-549]

5 minutes ago, bababooey said:

When you bring in guys from good defensive teams like Hankins, Sheard, and Simon, in addition to Ballard from Kansas City and then have a strong draft and a rejuvenated group of guys that are all Grigson era guys you may see us take a 2015 Carolina/Denver or 2016 Atlanta like step and exceed expectations similar to 2012.

That would be awesome.

[masnerj]

1 hour ago, bababooey said:

I know we are biased but I agree, we see it more granular than they do. 3/5ths of the OL could start on any team. The right side is coming along, but was good enough to win 8 games, and if our defense moves from 30th to even 25 then that is the difference between winning and losing games against Detroit in week 1, Texans on SNF, and Jags in London.

 

Until the Jags aren't picking in the top 5, I do not care how much people are in love with them. Until the Titans can beat us (it's been years), I do not care how much people are in love with them. Until the Texans win a playoff game against a team with an actual QB that we didn't have to take out for them, I do not care how much people are in love with them. 

 

We had what it took to win the division last year and blew it, we had as good of an offseason as you can have on paper, let's hope things start to come together.

 

 

 

Well said. This is exactly how I feel. I am not too concerned about the AFC South to be completely honest. Yes we blew it against the Texans both times but I think that coming into this year with an improved defense (its impossible to get worse than what we had last year) and improvement along the offensive line, I am feeling good.  The Titans and Jags never scare me too much and as long as Watson in Houston doesn't come out the gate like a Pro-Bowler, we will be fine. We won 8 games last year with a lackluster offensive line and an atrocious defense. Imagine how many we can win with a healthy Luck, an improved O-Line, and a mediocre defense. 

[tikyle]

Now it's time to start focusing on Chuck and his staff.  They need to develop young talent.  We have potentially 3 pro bowl caliber safeties on our roster.  I need to see them develop into that.  I also need to see the DC come up with a scheme to have all those guys on the field on most passing downs if healthy.

 

The bodies (when healthy) are there, the flexibility is there, the athleticism is there, it's just time for the coaching and coaching up to be there as well.

[BR-549]

3 hours ago, lollygagger8 said:

 

I knew it wouldn't be long... 

 

Looks like me when my wife says she gets overtime this week

[bleevit]

In all the years I have been watching football (more than I like to admit), I consider this off season for Chris Ballard among the best I have seen for filling needs with quality impact players. I can see scenarios where each of the eight draft picks could make significant contributions. The DBs will make or break the defense IMHO. I am worried about the O-line being young but the offense still scored pretty well. I just want to see Monachino and Pagano do their defensive coaching thing. If so, the Colts just might be pretty good.

[southwest1]

I'm just amazed that anybody at ESPN gave our draft & acquisitions an A. Usually, their writers heap all the praise on Luck, slam our owner, & claim we can't win against playoff caliber teams. 

 

This temporary 'love fest' for INDY is just a byproduct of unloading Grigson. They'll be back to ignoring us once the regular season starts. LOL! I like being under estimated. It lowers expectations & makes other squads dismiss us at their own peril. Keep doing it reporters. I prefer the element of surprise anyway. 

[a06cc]

We have to beat the stealers. I would call that success to the offseason. Am I holding a personal grudge against them. Yes I am. I'll PO'd is we lose to them, I hate them lol 

[bababooey]

11 hours ago, southwest1 said:

I'm just amazed that anybody at ESPN gave our draft & acquisitions an A. Usually, their writers heap all the praise on Luck, slam our owner, & claim we can't win against playoff caliber teams. 

 

This temporary 'love fest' for INDY is just a byproduct of unloading Grigson. They'll be back to ignoring us once the regular season starts. LOL! I like being under estimated. It lowers expectations & makes other squads dismiss us at their own peril. Keep doing it reporters. I prefer the element of surprise anyway. 

On the flip side, Peter King and the MMQB have us at 24 while Tennessee is at 4.

[NewColtsFan]

 

By the way.....

 

Our A- grade was the HIGHEST in the division.

 

 

[bababooey]

2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

By the way.....

 

Our A- grade was the HIGHEST in the division.

 

 

I mentioned that in my quote underneath my original post, we currently have the only A- in the entire NFL, with two more division write ups to be published tomorrow and Thursday.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

On 5/22/2017 at 9:59 AM, Myles said:

This seems pretty accurate.   All could change, but I like it on paper.   

 

4 hours ago, bababooey said:

I mentioned that in my quote underneath my original post, we currently have the only A- in the entire NFL, with two more division write ups to be published tomorrow and Thursday.

 

Let the Paper Tiger roar!

 

I joke, but this team looks much better on paper.  I just hope it translates to on-field success.

 

If Pagano can't get this team over the hump in the next year or two, he may be following Grigson.  And if Pagano follows Grigson, what does that say about Irsay and his decisions in 2011/2012?  Besides the obvious "Hey new GM guy, draft Luck, or else..."  has he done anything that Carlie couldn't have done better?

 

[Finball]

10 hours ago, bababooey said:

I mentioned that in my quote underneath my original post, we currently have the only A- in the entire NFL, with two more division write ups to be published tomorrow and Thursday.

 

No one from AFC west should get A- but from NFC west, 49ers have pretty strong case.

[bababooey]

5 hours ago, Finball said:

 

No one from AFC west should get A- but from NFC west, 49ers have pretty strong case.

True, the only thing they were missing was trading for Cousins.

[bababooey]

AFC West is in, we still have the best grade. Raiders, Chiefs, Chargers all got C+ and Denver got a B.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

14 minutes ago, bababooey said:

AFC West is in, we still have the best grade. Raiders, Chiefs, Chargers all got C+ and Denver got a B.

 

I'm trying to temper my optimism, but I think this has been the best off-season in Colts history.

 

I can't wait to see the results!

 

But we could still end up 8-8 and miss the playoffs.  Again.

[Coffeedrinker]

Woo hoo the Colts are off season winners.  Next stop Superbowl.

[Defjamz26]

A- sounds about right. And Barnwell seems to be one of the few analysts who actually has a clear understanding of the Colts as he understands how Grigson set us back and how it's his fault Luck hasn't reached his potential. I think an A- is accurate. The Colts took the most strides on defense in one Ballard offseason than they took all 5 years of Grigson's reign. He also got rid of a very bad contract with Allen and got a 4th in return. He also completely changed the culture by cutting under achieving veterans like Jackson, Cole, and Jones while also bringing in a bunch of young competition. He avoided bringing in old guys past their prime, which was a big issue. IMO it's easily the 2nd best offseason of any team in the NFL. They didn't just get new players, they got better as an organization.

 

Ballard was the best offseason acquisition IMO

 

 

*

[bababooey]

On 5/24/2017 at 3:58 AM, Finball said:

 

No one from AFC west should get A- but from NFC west, 49ers have pretty strong case.

Niners got a B-, nobody got an A- except us so there's that...

[jskinnz]

21 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Woo hoo the Colts are off season winners.  Next stop Superbowl.

 

My sarcasm senses are all tingly right now.

[theanarchist]

On ‎5‎/‎24‎/‎2017 at 4:33 PM, Coffeedrinker said:

Woo hoo the Colts are off season winners.  Next stop Superbowl.

[ColtsFanMikeC]

On 5/22/2017 at 0:35 PM, tikyle said:

Now it's time to start focusing on Chuck and his staff.  They need to develop young talent.  We have potentially 3 pro bowl caliber safeties on our roster.  I need to see them develop into that.  I also need to see the DC come up with a scheme to have all those guys on the field on most passing downs if healthy.

 

The bodies (when healthy) are there, the flexibility is there, the athleticism is there, it's just time for the coaching and coaching up to be there as well.

 

TBH, I am a bit concerned about Geathers' neck.  Regardless, with a healthy Hooker I think we can be OK there as Butler and Green should be able to at least have positive contributions (ideally, I'd like to see Butler back in the slot with Hooker as a true FS and Green/Geathers acting as hybrids).

 

What we really need to help the secondary is a pass rush.  There is not much for me to believe we can possibly be worse than last year and the additions of Hankins (to eat up blockers) as well as Sheard, Basham, Simon, and the return to form of Anderson (and hopefully Langford) ought to really bode well for us compared to last year.  If we're not at least putting fear into opposing QBs and they are getting all day to go through progressions and get the ball out clean, it won't matter much who is in the secondary.