Who do you think our sleeper pick is?

[Stephen]

On 5/17/2017 at 7:51 PM, ColtsFanMikeC said:

 

You have alluded to Gore being cut this year.  You have alluded to him slowing down and not producing at a high level.  Both are wrong.

 

Since the initial question defined a sleeper as someone who would come in and make immediate impact, you are suggesting Mack is going to play a major role in the offense as a rookie. This is highly unlikely.  I am sure he'll have a role in the offense.  However, for him to be a very impactful player immediately would only happen if Gore was not healthy. 

 

 

That is true. Gore could be healthy the whole year and mack can still have a big impact. Think rhodes addai in 06

[ColtsFanMikeC]

36 minutes ago, Stephen said:

That is true. Gore could be healthy the whole year and mack can still have a big impact. Think rhodes addai in 06

 

Dominic Rhodes was an average back who was a product of his system.  Joseph Addai was a first-round draft pick from a major D1 powerhouse.

 

Frank Gore is a future (likely first-ballot if he has over 660 yards this season) HOFer.  Marlon Mack is a fourth-round pick from a school who was held to 42 yards and <4 yards per carry against the only top 25 team he played against last year.

 

There's a major difference.  I want Mack to succeed just as much as the next Colts' fan.  I just really don't see him coming in and playing a major role if Gore is healthy.

 

He's got a lot of potential, but also some flaws in his game which he needs to fix if he wants to succeed at the NFL level.  Gore is almost a perfect back for him to learn from, and I expect him to play a role in the offense.  

 

I just don't expect him to have 40 carries more than Gore over the course of the season.  Mack is still going to have to beat Turbin out to be the main back-up this year.

 

 

[LockeDown]

46 minutes ago, ColtsFanMikeC said:

 

Dominic Rhodes was an average back who was a product of his system.  Joseph Addai was a first-round draft pick from a major D1 powerhouse.

 

Frank Gore is a future (likely first-ballot if he has over 660 yards this season) HOFer.  Marlon Mack is a fourth-round pick from a school who was held to 42 yards and <4 yards per carry against the only top 25 team he played against last year.

 

There's a major difference.  I want Mack to succeed just as much as the next Colts' fan.  I just really don't see him coming in and playing a major role if Gore is healthy.

 

He's got a lot of potential, but also some flaws in his game which he needs to fix if he wants to succeed at the NFL level.  Gore is almost a perfect back for him to learn from, and I expect him to play a role in the offense.  

 

I just don't expect him to have 40 carries more than Gore over the course of the season.  Mack is still going to have to beat Turbin out to be the main back-up this year.

 

 

Adldai was an SEC backup.  Polian saw potential in him, plus he liked the fact there wasn't much wear and tear. Great guy, great blocker, but Rhodes hit the hole harder and faster while Adlai had that studder step that never worked.  

[ColtsFanMikeC]

18 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

Adldai was an SEC backup.  Polian saw potential in him, plus he liked the fact there wasn't much wear and tear. Great guy, great blocker, but Rhodes hit the hole harder and faster while Adlai had that studder step that never worked.  

 

Addai was LSU's primary back in his senior year and had >700 yards more than their next best (Justin Vincent).  As a junior, Vincent had more carries (121 to 101) but less yards (488 to 680) than Addai.

 

As a rookie (2006, like Stephen said), Addai had 226 carries and 1081 yards compared to Rhodes' 187 carries and 641 yards. 

 

In 2015, Gore had 260 carries, compared to the next RB who had 31 carries (Ahmad Bradshaw).  In 2016, Gore had 263 carries, compared to the next RB who had 47 carries (Turbin).  Both years he was behind sub-par OLs and he managed to put up 967 and 1,025 yards.

 

I highly doubt we'll see Gore lose out to total carries to a rookie.  I can see his carries dropping closer to 200 or so, but I don't see Mack coming in and a) surpassing Gore in carries or b) surpassing Gore in yards.

 

I think Gore is still going to have 230+ carries, with Mack and Turbin each in the 30-50 carry range.

 

 

 

 

 

[krunk]

1 hour ago, ColtsFanMikeC said:

 

Dominic Rhodes was an average back who was a product of his system.  Joseph Addai was a first-round draft pick from a major D1 powerhouse.

 

Frank Gore is a future (likely first-ballot if he has over 660 yards this season) HOFer.  Marlon Mack is a fourth-round pick from a school who was held to 42 yards and <4 yards per carry against the only top 25 team he played against last year.

 

There's a major difference.  I want Mack to succeed just as much as the next Colts' fan.  I just really don't see him coming in and playing a major role if Gore is healthy.

 

He's got a lot of potential, but also some flaws in his game which he needs to fix if he wants to succeed at the NFL level.  Gore is almost a perfect back for him to learn from, and I expect him to play a role in the offense.  

 

I just don't expect him to have 40 carries more than Gore over the course of the season.  Mack is still going to have to beat Turbin out to be the main back-up this year.

 

 

You really keep exacerbating that little Florida State thing bro. Its ridiculous. Every back that got drafted was shut down at least once against some team. Stop trying to sell that as a career defining moment. Its as if he was supposed to be He Man and bulldoze through their entire defense by himself. Its a team game and there were a lot of mediocre players on that S. Florida team. You fully expect that to happen going against Fl. State. I'm still trying to figure out how every time Fournett faced an elite defense he was shut down. I saw Mcaffrey struggle against Notre Dame as well. I dont let that keep me from seeing that a guy can play the position. Its obvious they all have ability Theres more than one factor that lays into the outcome. You're really laying into this thing.

[ColtsFanMikeC]

4 minutes ago, krunk said:

You really keep exacerbating that little Florida State thing bro. Its ridiculous. Every back that got drafted was shut down at least once against some team. Stop trying to sell that as a career defining moment. Its as if he was supposed to be He Man and bulldoze through their entire defense by himself. Its a team game and there were a lot of mediocre players on that S. Florida team. You fully expect that to happen going against Fl. State. I'm still trying to figure out how every time Fournett faced an elite defense he was shut down. I saw Mcaffrey struggle against Notre Dame as well. I dont let that keep me from seeing that a guy can play the position. Its obvious they all have ability Theres more than one factor that lays into the outcome. You're really laying into this thing.

 

I said that one time.  I see your point that USF was outmatched by FSU, but it is the one game over the past 2 years where he was going against top 25 talent and he wasn't anything spectacular.

 

I get it, I watch Wyoming football and think the Falcons got a good player in Brian Hill, a RB who put up some monster games and also was shut down from time to time against prime teams.  It happens to everyone.

 

My point is, as an SEC Back, Addai was playing against elite competition week in and week out. 

 

In no way am I trying to 'sell that as a career defining moment.'  My point is, when @Stephen says think of the Addai/Rhodes year of 2006, I don't think we can (1) Compare a 5th round pick from a small school who plays against decent competition to a 1st round pick from an SEC school who played against elite teams almost every week and (2) compare a first-ballot HOFer in Gore to a journeyman who rushed for 1000+ yards once in his career (as an undrafted free agent rookie, after Edge got hurt and he fell into a good role in the best offense in the league) and didn't every really do anything else (one other season over 600 yards). 

 

A major knock on Mack is he dances around in the back-field and isn't decisive choosing holes.  That is something he may have been able to get away with against sub-par competition at the college level.  It won't work in the NFL (especially considering our line still has major room for improvement).  One of Gore's major strengths is he almost never takes negative yards and hits holes even when they barely even exist.  Gore will be a great RB for Mack to learn from.

 

 

[krunk]

26 minutes ago, ColtsFanMikeC said:

 

I said that one time.  I see your point that USF was outmatched by FSU, but it is the one game over the past 2 years where he was going against top 25 talent and he wasn't anything spectacular.

 

I get it, I watch Wyoming football and think the Falcons got a good player in Brian Hill, a RB who put up some monster games and also was shut down from time to time against prime teams.  It happens to everyone.

 

My point is, as an SEC Back, Addai was playing against elite competition week in and week out. 

 

In no way am I trying to 'sell that as a career defining moment.'  My point is, when @Stephen says think of the Addai/Rhodes year of 2006, I don't think we can (1) Compare a 5th round pick from a small school who plays against decent competition to a 1st round pick from an SEC school who played against elite teams almost every week and (2) compare a first-ballot HOFer in Gore to a journeyman who rushed for 1000+ yards once in his career (as an undrafted free agent rookie, after Edge got hurt and he fell into a good role in the best offense in the league) and didn't every really do anything else (one other season over 600 yards). 

 

A major knock on Mack is he dances around in the back-field and isn't decisive choosing holes.  That is something he may have been able to get away with against sub-par competition at the college level.  It won't work in the NFL (especially considering our line still has major room for improvement).  One of Gore's major strengths is he almost never takes negative yards and hits holes even when they barely even exist.  Gore will be a great RB for Mack to learn from.

 

 

I think every back has to make adjustments to how they did things in College versus the pros. Mack really doesnt do too much dancing around in the backfield any way. Some of the runs ive seen him bounce there wasn't really a hole there to begin with but somebody has to write something. We really dont have much to go off of until the games get played to say what his impact will be. I think he's talented enough to do really well. I dont think he will immediately be sending Gore to the bench, but like Stephen said it could end p being a Rhodes\Addai like Tandem as the season moves along if Mack shows what a lot of us think he has. I honestly think all 3 backs will make consistent contribution. However it wouldn't shock me if Mack performed to level that took snaps from Turbin.

[A8bil]

8 minutes ago, krunk said:

I think every back has to make adjustments to how they did things in College versus the pros. Mack really doesnt do too much dancing around in the backfield any way. Some of the runs ive seen him bounce there wasn't really a hole there to begin with but somebody has to write something. We really dont have much to go off of until the games get played to say what his impact will be. I think he's talented enough to do really well. I dont think he will immediately be sending Gore to the bench, but like Stephen said it could end p being a Rhodes\Addai like Tandem as the season moves along if Mack shows what a lot of us think he has. I honestly think all 3 backs will make consistent contribution. However it wouldn't shock me if Mack performed to level that took snaps from Turbin.

You could be right, but one of my bigger concerns with Mack is his upright running style and ball security.  Those are habits/traits that are difficult to change.  Upright RBs get killed and lose the ball...often.  He wont get on the field if that happens.

 

Here's the bigger conundrum:  Gore thrives in a power run game.  He's less effective in other schemes.  I don't think Mack will excel in a power run game....his skills are different.  Do the colts start implementing a different run scheme to play to mack's strengths?  If they do, gore's production will go down.

[ColtsFanMikeC]

19 minutes ago, krunk said:

I think every back has to make adjustments to how they did things in College versus the pros. Mack really doesnt do too much dancing around in the backfield any way. Some of the runs ive seen him bounce there wasn't really a hole there to begin with but somebody has to write something. We really dont have much to go off of until the games get played to say what his impact will be. I think he's talented enough to do really well. I dont think he will immediately be sending Gore to the bench, but like Stephen said it could end p being a Rhodes\Addai like Tandem as the season moves along if Mack shows what a lot of us think he has. I honestly think all 3 backs will make consistent contribution. However it wouldn't shock me if Mack performed to level that took snaps from Turbin.

 

The Rhodes/Addai tandem saw Rhodes start 16 games, but have 40 fewer carries and 440 fewer yards than the rookie Addai.  I doubt anything remotely close to this happens w/ Gore and Mack this season.

 

 

3 minutes ago, A8bil said:

You could be right, but one of my bigger concerns with Mack is his upright running style and ball security.  Those are habits/traits that are difficult to change.  Upright RBs get killed and lose the ball...often.  He wont get on the field if that happens.

 

Here's the bigger conundrum:  Gore thrives in a power run game.  He's less effective in other schemes.  I don't think Mack will excel in a power run game....his skills are different.  Do the colts start implementing a different run scheme to play to mack's strengths?  If they do, gore's production will go down.

 

I don't really think I would call either of Gore's 2 seasons with the Colts a season where we had a power run game and think both can do just fine with the system we have in place.

[krunk]

15 minutes ago, A8bil said:

You could be right, but one of my bigger concerns with Mack is his upright running style and ball security.  Those are habits/traits that are difficult to change.  Upright RBs get killed and lose the ball...often.  He wont get on the field if that happens.

 

Here's the bigger conundrum:  Gore thrives in a power run game.  He's less effective in other schemes.  I don't think Mack will excel in a power run game....his skills are different.  Do the colts start implementing a different run scheme to play to mack's strengths?  If they do, gore's production will go down.

We run a zone blocking scheme. Chud prefers that. However I dont think we've completely removed the power plays. As a previous poster made in another thread, Mack has played and done well in both schemes. He was in a power scheme before under the previous staff in college until they changed coaches.

[krunk]

1 minute ago, krunk said:

We run a zone blocking scheme. Chud prefers that. However I dont think we've completely removed the power plays. As a previous poster made in another thread, Mack has played and done well in both schemes. He was in a power scheme before under the previous staff in college before they changed coaches.

 

[Stephen]

14 minutes ago, A8bil said:

You could be right, but one of my bigger concerns with Mack is his upright running style and ball security.  Those are habits/traits that are difficult to change.  Upright RBs get killed and lose the ball...often.  He wont get on the field if that happens.

 

Here's the bigger conundrum:  Gore thrives in a power run game.  He's less effective in other schemes.  I don't think Mack will excel in a power run game....his skills are different.  Do the colts start implementing a different run scheme to play to mack's strengths?  If they do, gore's production will go down.

Mack has played in both power and zone schemes and can run between the tackles well. I see a run by comittee approach. Turbin and mack should get more carries to help keep gore fresh for the playoffs. Then during playoffs the back that shined the most will get the most carries.

[krunk]

9 minutes ago, ColtsFanMikeC said:

 

The Rhodes/Addai tandem saw Rhodes start 16 games, but have 40 fewer carries and 440 fewer yards than the rookie Addai.  I doubt anything remotely close to this happens w/ Gore and Mack this season.

 

 

 

I don't really think I would call either of Gore's 2 seasons with the Colts a season where we had a power run game and think both can do just fine with the system we have in place.

I dont think what you're saying is totally what Stephe was implying. I could be wrong.

[Defjamz26]

I'd say Walker. He really should have went a lot higher than what he did. I think most people expect Mack to be good though. I think he might be the Vick Ballard type that Irsay was talking about

 

 

*

[A8bil]

Ok, since my last post I actually went and watched about 10 game films of Mack's.  Not highlights, but game films.  Here are my takeaways:  

 

1. While they ran Mack between the tackles, it is a joke to say he "can" run between the tackles.  My rough estimate based on the games I watched is that he had a net negative yards, and a couple of fumbles, actually running between the tackles.  He sees no lanes, because whenever he runs between the tackles he buries his head. The only good runs he had between the tackles was when he abandoned the plays and ran outside.  

 

2.  He's a decent receiver.  In fact, he runs more like a receiver than a RB.  Could be helpful as a third down back.

 

3.  Almost all of his good runs went outside of the tackles by design.  He's decisive on his cuts when going laterally.

 

4.  He is not decisive running between the tackles.  In fact, he often commits the cardinal sin of taking three steps toward the line and coming to a full stop trying to decide where to take the ball.  In the NFL, unless you are Barry Sanders of AP, that's a sure tackle for loss.   

 

5.  Makes some pretty good open field blocks for Flowers to spring Flowers for big gains.  Not sure the Colts will use that skill, but I like his ability to block downfield.

 

6.  Impossible to tell if he has pass blocking skills.  They rarely kept Mack in pass protection.

 

7.  Not sure he's going to have the speed advantage in the pros that he had in college, but he certainly did have a speed advantage.

 

So, my hope for him to be a "sleeper" is substantially diminished.  he has the raw tools, but he's a long way from being NFL ready IMO.