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Who do you think our sleeper pick is?


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59 minutes ago, ColtsFanMikeC said:

 

Our OL often 'holds their own' in run blocking, but they haven't been road-graders for Gore and our offensive attack has been pretty predictable and Gore was one of only 12 RBs in the league last year to break 1,000 -- that's a pretty high level (roughly top 1/3rd in the league). 

 

Very few RBs could have done what Gore's done here over the past 2 years given his surrounding cast.  He is still a starting caliber RB in this league, and I assure you a 5th rounder with some major holes in his game isn't going to come in an undue that as a rookie.

 

In terms of Luck's development, we at least know Gore is still producing very solidly as a blocking RB.  Unless Mack picks that up very quickly, I think keeping Luck off the turf is doing more for his development than assuming a guy that played at a small school against sub-par NCAA competition is going to come in and break off major 'homerun' plays as a rookie.

 

Mack was the 2nd or 3rd top graded pass-blocking RB in this year's draft, which we all know was a very deep class. He's also a 4th rounder, not a 5th. And I'm not worried about the small school thing, Clayton Geathers went to UCF, TY went to FIU, and both of those guys made an impact in their rookie seasons.

 

Gore can be a great mentor for Mack, but it's just not realistic to think he's going to be doing all of that "learning" while standing on the sideline watching Gore carry the ball in 3.5 yard increments. Gore's already been on a pitch count both seasons that he's been here, so one can only assume that they'll be even more conservative with his touches this year, since having him healthy down the stretch will be crucial.

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3 hours ago, OffensivelyPC said:

I'm actually kind of excited about the Hairston pick - but I'm with you on the wait.  I think he could break out as early as next year, but I really doubt he'll see much time this year other than sub packages (and that might have to wait until midseason).

 

Honestly,  the more I thought about it,  the more I think Hairston come thru in 2018 and not 2019 as I originally posted.      I think waiting two years might be one year too long.

 

He might hit next year along with Stewart and Banner....

 

 

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Our depth is almost all at the WILL spot. Yes Morrison played Mike last year, but at 5'11 230 he's not a true MLB. Our only real Mike is Jon Bostic. That being said, I still think Anthony Walker Jr. starts at the WILL over Speance and Jackson.

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Pay attention to what the coaches keep saying about Walker commanding the defense and making all the calls. I think they will play him at Mike, not Will.  The Mike is the one who makes all the calls.

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2 hours ago, Tmoney said:

Our depth is almost all at the WILL spot. Yes Morrison played Mike last year, but at 5'11 230 he's not a true MLB. Our only real Mike is Jon Bostic. That being said, I still think Anthony Walker Jr. starts at the WILL over Speance and Jackson.

Walker will be the mike they will prob swith between him and morrison. Spence and jackson at will

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14 hours ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

Mack was the 2nd or 3rd top graded pass-blocking RB in this year's draft, which we all know was a very deep class. He's also a 4th rounder, not a 5th. And I'm not worried about the small school thing, Clayton Geathers went to UCF, TY went to FIU, and both of those guys made an impact in their rookie seasons.

 

Gore can be a great mentor for Mack, but it's just not realistic to think he's going to be doing all of that "learning" while standing on the sideline watching Gore carry the ball in 3.5 yard increments. Gore's already been on a pitch count both seasons that he's been here, so one can only assume that they'll be even more conservative with his touches this year, since having him healthy down the stretch will be crucial.

 

TY came in and did well as a rookie, but he also had future HOFer Reggie Wayne taking most of the attention away from him and TY happens to have world-class speed at WR.  Mack has average/above-average speed and pretty good size, but picking up a block on guys like JJ Watt, Clowney, Von Miller, etc.. in the NFL isn't comparable to the talent he was facing.  Not saying he can't do it, he just hasn't proven it at this level.

 

Geathers had 27 solo tackles as a rookie and I'm pretty sure the vast majority came on STs.  He had 2 starts on D and was pretty much learning the D as a rookie behind Lowery and Adams.  He came on and played well last year other than missing roughly half the season due to injury.

 

In 2016, Gore had 263 carries out of 334 from Colts RBs (79%).  In 2015, he had 260 of 338 carries from Colts RBs (77%).  Last year's rushing leader, Ezekiel Elliot only accounted for 74% of Dallas' carries from their RBs.  DeMarco Murray for 72% of Tennessee's carries by RBs.  Jordan Howard only for 72% of Chicago's carries by RBs.  I could go on and on.  Gore is a bellcow.

 

Gore hasn't been on a 'pitch count'.  He's running for a higher percentage of carries per RB than almost (maybe all) other backs in the league.  Gore almost never runs for losses, which is a big knock on Mack (i.e., he dances around in the backfield and is indecisive when picking holes).  If Mack had to run behind last years line, it is highly likely he wouldn't have been picking up 3.9 (not 3.5) yard increments but taking a lot of carries for loss.  Mack, as of now, isn't Barry Sanders where for every 2-3 plays he takes a loss he busts out a homerun.  Until he proves he can do that in this league, I'd rather be picking up 3.9 yards a carry (do that every play and you don't see 4th down) than losing yards, watching Luck get killed trying to do too much on 2nd and 3rd and longs and crossing our fingers that we might see a long run.

 

Gore has shown no signs of slowing down and Mack has shown nothing in the NFL so far.  You can keep dreaming, but there's little chance Mack is going to put a significant dent into Gore's workload unless Gore is hurt.

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On 5/14/2017 at 0:14 AM, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

We're a lot better off at MLB than we've been in a long time, but that's not really saying much.

Except for the Freeman-DJax duo. Wasn't an intimidating group, but they got a whole lotta tackles

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2 hours ago, ColtsFanMikeC said:

Gore has shown no signs of slowing down and Mack has shown nothing in the NFL so far.  You can keep dreaming, but there's little chance Mack is going to put a significant dent into Gore's workload unless Gore is hurt.

 

I think you're literally the only person on this forum who thinks Gore hasn't shown signs of slowing down. And I don't know if you've been paying attention to Ballard's moves or not, but keeping 34 year old players around that he didn't sign isn't exactly his "thing."

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14 hours ago, krunk said:

Pay attention to what the coaches keep saying about Walker commanding the defense and making all the calls. I think they will play him at Mike, not Will.  The Mike is the one who makes all the calls.

Walker was the Mike at NW. The son of a coach turned coach on field. He has all the intangibles you look for at Mike. I never thought he was drafted to be anything but the Mike. He isn't the athlete I want at Will even at 238lbs. I think we go with guys who can move at both spots. 

 

I think Walker is the day 3 guy most likely to make an early splash in part because he has an open path to the field. Hairston is a guy who could earn early time. The slot is wide open. I think he's more ready than his 2 years experience would lead you to believe. I'm not anxious to see Butler back in that role. I'm not sure what his role will be after adding Hooker.   

 

Mack and Stewart I expect to contribute but they are looking at being part of a rotation. I hope that Clark is far enough along to hold down RT. That would mean Banner comes a long slow taking time to reshape his body. 

 

Simon isn't a draft pick but I think he's looking at a break out season. He hits double digits and leads the team in sacks.

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33 minutes ago, akcolt said:

Walker was the Mike at NW. The son of a coach turned coach on field. He has all the intangibles you look for at Mike. I never thought he was drafted to be anything but the Mike. He isn't the athlete I want at Will even at 238lbs. I think we go with guys who can move at both spots. 

 

I think Walker is the day 3 guy most likely to make an early splash in part because he has an open path to the field. Hairston is a guy who could earn early time. The slot is wide open. I think he's more ready than his 2 years experience would lead you to believe. I'm not anxious to see Butler back in that role. I'm not sure what his role will be after adding Hooker.   

 

Mack and Stewart I expect to contribute but they are looking at being part of a rotation. I hope that Clark is far enough along to hold down RT. That would mean Banner comes a long slow taking time to reshape his body. 

 

Simon isn't a draft pick but I think he's looking at a break out season. He hits double digits and leads the team in sacks.

I like Simon and I think he will do well. At least 6 sacks for sure I think. He plays with that Mike Vrabel kind of energy. I'm more sure about him than I am Sheard.

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9 hours ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

I think you're literally the only person on this forum who thinks Gore hasn't shown signs of slowing down. And I don't know if you've been paying attention to Ballard's moves or not, but keeping 34 year old players around that he didn't sign isn't exactly his "thing."

 

Our line played well consistently for about 2 games last year and Gore still managed over 1,000 yards.  He is playing just fine.  Give him some help on the OL, some non-predictable play calling,

 

I highly doubt I'm the only one on this board who thinks Gore is our clear-cut #1 RB this year. 

 

I don't know if you've been reading about Chris Ballard's thoughts on Gore, but if he was going to part ways with Gore, it likely would've happened already. 

 

“He is a unique guy and special. We’re talking about a future Hall-of-Famer for what he’s been able to do in his career,” said Ballard of Gore. “Look, when I walked in the door, one of the first things I did was watch Frank over the 16 game season and I saw a player that still has something left in the tank. He still has speed, still has quickness, still has vision.”

“With his passion and work ethic and what he brings to the locker room and what he brings on Sunday, we’re lucky to have Frank Gore on this team,” said Ballard on Thursday.

 

http://coltswire.usatoday.com/2017/05/11/indianapolis-colts-chris-ballard-indianapolis-colts-frank-gore-unique-guy/

 

You are out of your gourd if you truly believe a rookie is going to come in and take the reigns from one of the GOATs.  I will be shocked to see him surpass Turbin on the depth chart until at least middle of the season.

 

 

 

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35 minutes ago, ColtsFanMikeC said:

 

Our line played well consistently for about 2 games last year and Gore still managed over 1,000 yards.  He is playing just fine.  Give him some help on the OL, some non-predictable play calling,

 

I highly doubt I'm the only one on this board who thinks Gore is our clear-cut #1 RB this year. 

 

I don't know if you've been reading about Chris Ballard's thoughts on Gore, but if he was going to part ways with Gore, it likely would've happened already. 

 

“He is a unique guy and special. We’re talking about a future Hall-of-Famer for what he’s been able to do in his career,” said Ballard of Gore. “Look, when I walked in the door, one of the first things I did was watch Frank over the 16 game season and I saw a player that still has something left in the tank. He still has speed, still has quickness, still has vision.”

“With his passion and work ethic and what he brings to the locker room and what he brings on Sunday, we’re lucky to have Frank Gore on this team,” said Ballard on Thursday.

 

http://coltswire.usatoday.com/2017/05/11/indianapolis-colts-chris-ballard-indianapolis-colts-frank-gore-unique-guy/

 

You are out of your gourd if you truly believe a rookie is going to come in and take the reigns from one of the GOATs.  I will be shocked to see him surpass Turbin on the depth chart until at least middle of the season.

 

 

 

 

This thread is about sleeper picks, not guys who are clearly coming in & starting week 1 like Hooker or Wilson. I never once said Gore wasn't going to be the #1 back to start the season, only that I think as the season wears on Mack could come on & start to carve out more of a role on offense, which is the definition of a sleeper pick. I even used Vick Ballard as an example.

 

Why is that a problem for you?

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My money is on Walker.  That Northwestern defense was pretty stout and Walker was right in the middle of it all.  I think someone in the linebacker core will eventually go down to injury and we will be happy that we picked this guy up.

 

Colts later round running backs usually disappoint so I'm not expecting much from Mack.  Colts hopefully pick up a better back higher in the draft next year.

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On ‎5‎/‎13‎/‎2017 at 9:45 PM, NewColtsFan said:

 

I think the "sleeper" comes this way....

 

2017:   Mack

2018:   Stewart, Banner

2019:   Hairston

 

I think there's a lot of talent taken in this draft by the Colts.....

 

Perfect. I'd add Basham to 2019 too. I think a couple years of learning some techniques he could break out too. Mack is the only later pick that I feel confident will get enough time this year to contribute. I do think by next year Stewart and Banner the gigantic duo could be nfl ready and make contributions....then the more raw picks like Hairston and Basham later on hopefully will turn into something special. I like this draft from top to bottom. I think we got upside everywhere.

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On 5/15/2017 at 5:56 PM, Tmoney said:

Our depth is almost all at the WILL spot. Yes Morrison played Mike last year, but at 5'11 230 he's not a true MLB. Our only real Mike is Jon Bostic. That being said, I still think Anthony Walker Jr. starts at the WILL over Speance and Jackson.

 

Morrison is most definitely a Mike rather than a Will.  Same with Walker.  And Bostic is a Will.

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On 5/16/2017 at 6:57 AM, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

I think you're literally the only person on this forum who thinks Gore hasn't shown signs of slowing down. And I don't know if you've been paying attention to Ballard's moves or not, but keeping 34 year old players around that he didn't sign isn't exactly his "thing."

Add me to that.  Yes, Gore's 34 but guys like you seem to make that the sole criteria for your opinion that Gore has slowed down.  You cannot tell me you can see from the "eyeball test."  On the flea flicker play last year against the Titans Gore showed he still had 4.6 speed, which is all he has ever had.  20+ yard runs is a poor indicator for power backs, because they don't outrun defenses, they push through them or use blocks to spring big gains.  For all the progress the OL made last year, the downfield blocking is still atrocious.  I invite you to go look at Gore's highlights last year and watch what he faces once he pops through the line. You'll see he is often facing 3-4 unblocked defenders.  Guys like McCoy might be able to run around the defenders in those situations, but runners like Gore, Blount, Lacy, Lynch, etc., who cannot outrun safeties all need blockers that they can cut off of.   Gore hasn't had that.  Will he slow down this year?  Maybe...but there is no basis to say he has slowed down based on what happened last year.

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4 hours ago, A8bil said:

Add me to that.  Yes, Gore's 34 but guys like you seem to make that the sole criteria for your opinion that Gore has slowed down.  You cannot tell me you can see from the "eyeball test."  On the flea flicker play last year against the Titans Gore showed he still had 4.6 speed, which is all he has ever had.  20+ yard runs is a poor indicator for power backs, because they don't outrun defenses, they push through them or use blocks to spring big gains.  For all the progress the OL made last year, the downfield blocking is still atrocious.  I invite you to go look at Gore's highlights last year and watch what he faces once he pops through the line. You'll see he is often facing 3-4 unblocked defenders.  Guys like McCoy might be able to run around the defenders in those situations, but runners like Gore, Blount, Lacy, Lynch, etc., who cannot outrun safeties all need blockers that they can cut off of.   Gore hasn't had that.  Will he slow down this year?  Maybe...but there is no basis to say he has slowed down based on what happened last year.

 

I'll tell you what I told the other dude that got all bent out of shape about it: this thread isn't called "What's your opinion about Frank Gore as a player?" It's called "Who do you think our sleeper pick is?"

 

My answer, like several other people, was Marlon Mack. For some reason, that rubbed a couple people the wrong way. Did Gore look awesome in the trick play vs Tennessee that started out with Luck lined up at WR? Ok, sure, I'll give you that. Does he face stacked boxes and get in hit in the backfield a lot? I'll give you that too. I don't understand why it's such a big deal that I think Mack can come in and start to work out a role for himself at some point this season.

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23 hours ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

This thread is about sleeper picks, not guys who are clearly coming in & starting week 1 like Hooker or Wilson. I never once said Gore wasn't going to be the #1 back to start the season, only that I think as the season wears on Mack could come on & start to carve out more of a role on offense, which is the definition of a sleeper pick. I even used Vick Ballard as an example.

 

Why is that a problem for you?

 

The initial post says someone we may not expect who can come in and 'make an immediate impact.' 

 

For Mack to make an immediate impact, Gore would likely have to get hurt.  I don't want that to happen, and therefore I don't want to see Mack to make immediate impacts.

 

It would be nice if he could contribute positively to the team, but I don't think we're going to see much impact from Mack this year tbh.  Gore still has some left in the tank.

 

Comparing Mack to Ballard in year one isn't really fair.  Ballard was competing against an injured Donnie Brown for the starting job.  Mack is competing against a first-ballot HOFer, coming off a very solid year.

 

I, like I'm sure all Colts fans do, hope Mack turns into a special player for us.  For him to be making immediate impacts would likely mean injury to Gore, which I hope all Colts fans do not want to see.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

I'll tell you what I told the other dude that got all bent out of shape about it: this thread isn't called "What's your opinion about Frank Gore as a player?" It's called "Who do you think our sleeper pick is?"

 

My answer, like several other people, was Marlon Mack. For some reason, that rubbed a couple people the wrong way. Did Gore look awesome in the trick play vs Tennessee that started out with Luck lined up at WR? Ok, sure, I'll give you that. Does he face stacked boxes and get in hit in the backfield a lot? I'll give you that too. I don't understand why it's such a big deal that I think Mack can come in and start to work out a role for himself at some point this season.

 

You have alluded to Gore being cut this year.  You have alluded to him slowing down and not producing at a high level.  Both are wrong.

 

Since the initial question defined a sleeper as someone who would come in and make immediate impact, you are suggesting Mack is going to play a major role in the offense as a rookie. This is highly unlikely.  I am sure he'll have a role in the offense.  However, for him to be a very impactful player immediately would only happen if Gore was not healthy. 

 

 

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44 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

I'll tell you what I told the other dude that got all bent out of shape about it: this thread isn't called "What's your opinion about Frank Gore as a player?" It's called "Who do you think our sleeper pick is?"

 

My answer, like several other people, was Marlon Mack. For some reason, that rubbed a couple people the wrong way. Did Gore look awesome in the trick play vs Tennessee that started out with Luck lined up at WR? Ok, sure, I'll give you that. Does he face stacked boxes and get in hit in the backfield a lot? I'll give you that too. I don't understand why it's such a big deal that I think Mack can come in and start to work out a role for himself at some point this season.

Sorry, yes, my post extended an already off topic discussion.  Re Mack, I think he can be a sleeper pick.  He's got speed, and he's got quickness.  Whether he can harness that raw talent into a being a consistent back who can block and hold on to the ball remains to be seen, but he's got the tools and a great mentor ahead of him.  So, as to Mack, no disagreement.

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15 minutes ago, A8bil said:

Sorry, yes, my post extended an already off topic discussion.  Re Mack, I think he can be a sleeper pick.  He's got speed, and he's got quickness.  Whether he can harness that raw talent into a being a consistent back who can block and hold on to the ball remains to be seen, but he's got the tools and a great mentor ahead of him.  So, as to Mack, no disagreement.

 

It's no big deal, I like Frank Gore a lot, I liked him in San Fran & I was psyched when Indy signed him. I think it's very realistic that he ends up 3rd or 4th on the all-time rushing by the end of this season.

 

However, Mack brings an element of homerun speed to the offense that we haven't seen in a long time, and can potentially make this offense VERY explosive. I'm excited about it, that's all.

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45 minutes ago, ColtsFanMikeC said:

 

You have alluded to Gore being cut this year.  You have alluded to him slowing down and not producing at a high level.  Both are wrong.

 

Since the initial question defined a sleeper as someone who would come in and make immediate impact, you are suggesting Mack is going to play a major role in the offense as a rookie. This is highly unlikely.  I am sure he'll have a role in the offense.  However, for him to be a very impactful player immediately would only happen if Gore was not healthy. 

 

 

 

Yes, at one time prior to free agency, I thought Gore may be a casualty of Ballard's youth movement. It's not that far fetched to think about, considering, he's 34, his guaranteed money is paid in full, & cutting him would open up $3.5mil of salary cap. Yes I thought there was a chance he'd be cut. Yes, I personally think he's lost a step. Doesn't mean he can't be productive, clearly he can, but he's not keeping defensive coordinators awake at night either.

 

As far making an immediate impact goes, any rookie that comes in & has a productive season is IMO making an immediate impact, whether it's from the first offensive possesion of the regular season, or if he starts getting his reps in week 7.

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3 hours ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

Yes, at one time prior to free agency, I thought Gore may be a casualty of Ballard's youth movement. It's not that far fetched to think about, considering, he's 34, his guaranteed money is paid in full, & cutting him would open up $3.5mil of salary cap. Yes I thought there was a chance he'd be cut. Yes, I personally think he's lost a step. Doesn't mean he can't be productive, clearly he can, but he's not keeping defensive coordinators awake at night either.

 

As far making an immediate impact goes, any rookie that comes in & has a productive season is IMO making an immediate impact, whether it's from the first offensive possesion of the regular season, or if he starts getting his reps in week 7.

You made your quote about Gore getting cut within the past 48 hours.

 

Let's stop this convo, you're undereducated on the subject.

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On 5/15/2017 at 6:31 PM, Stephen said:

Walker will be the mike they will prob swith between him and morrison. Spence and jackson at will

A Walk is not a Mike. He doesn't shed blocks well enough to play strong side and he's not ideal size. His playing weight should be around 235. Let him be a Will where he's more natural and where he can use his athletic ability to evade blocks and flow backside instead of taking on guards inside the hole. Not a big fan of Morrison, he's ganna have to earn his spot this off season Bostic is also here. 

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11 hours ago, MacDee1975 said:

 

Morrison is most definitely a Mike rather than a Will.  Same with Walker.  And Bostic is a Will.

Morrison is a Mike but like I said he's 5'11 230. He's a Mike in a Wills body. What makes ppl think A Walk is a MLB I dont get it? Have you watched his film? He's very suspect at the POA, doesn't shed blocks well, and he's undersized for the middle. He's better playing at 235 and using his athletic ability instead of keeping all that bulk when he doesn't even play physical. And he's a plus in coverage, he's got Will written all over him

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9 minutes ago, Tmoney said:

Morrison is a Mike but like I said he's 5'11 230. He's a Mike in a Wills body. What makes ppl think A Walk is a MLB I dont get it? Have you watched his film? He's very suspect at the POA, doesn't shed blocks well, and he's undersized for the middle. He's better playing at 235 and using his athletic ability instead of keeping all that bulk when he doesn't even play physical. And he's a plus in coverage, he's got Will written all over him

 

I'm not sure where these measurements for Morrison are coming from,  but here's the numbers from the 2016 combine...

 

He's 6'0" and 3/4.   So, just a fraction under 6'1"     And he weighed 233.

 

The Colts listed him at 6'1" and 235.       He was a MIKE in college and he's one in the NFL.

 

Here's his profile page with the stats....

 

http://insider.espn.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/49877

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On 5/15/2017 at 4:15 PM, krunk said:

Pay attention to what the coaches keep saying about Walker commanding the defense and making all the calls. I think they will play him at Mike, not Will.  The Mike is the one who makes all the calls.

 

On 5/16/2017 at 7:58 AM, akcolt said:

Walker was the Mike at NW. The son of a coach turned coach on field. He has all the intangibles you look for at Mike. I never thought he was drafted to be anything but the Mike. He isn't the athlete I want at Will even at 238lbs. I think we go with guys who can move at both spots. 

 

I think Walker is the day 3 guy most likely to make an early splash in part because he has an open path to the field. Hairston is a guy who could earn early time. The slot is wide open. I think he's more ready than his 2 years experience would lead you to believe. I'm not anxious to see Butler back in that role. I'm not sure what his role will be after adding Hooker.   

 

Mack and Stewart I expect to contribute but they are looking at being part of a rotation. I hope that Clark is far enough along to hold down RT. That would mean Banner comes a long slow taking time to reshape his body. 

 

Simon isn't a draft pick but I think he's looking at a break out season. He hits double digits and leads the team in sacks.

I just don't see it, I think I'm the only one here but watching his 2016 tape I can't see him being a Mike. Even with that extra weight and muscle he still struggled to shed blocks and be a physical presence over the middle. I think he's a much better player at a lower weight flowing backside using the athletic ability he didnt show in 16 but did in 15. If I had to guess I'd say he was playing at 240-245 last year and he didnt look good on the field. 

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4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I'm not sure where these measurements for Morrison are coming from,  but here's the numbers from the 2016 combine...

 

He's 6'0" and 3/4.   So, just a fraction under 6'1"     And he weighed 233.

 

The Colts listed him at 6'1" and 235.       He was a MIKE in college and he's one in the NFL.

 

Here's his profile page with the stats....

 

http://insider.espn.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/49877

I guess he just looks shorter next to everyone else on game day.

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11 hours ago, ColtsFanMikeC said:

You made your quote about Gore getting cut within the past 48 hours.

 

Let's stop this convo, you're undereducated on the subject.

 

That just might be a 2-way street, because I read this story last month and it opened up my eyes a bit, gave me a new perspective of Gore. Maybe you should read it too.

 

http://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/4/7/15223594/how-frank-gore-became-a-liability-for-the-colts

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Here's the problem with that article critical of Gore.  The author wrote:

 

"The Colts offensive line (especially the interior) is one of the better, if not the best, run blocking units in the league. In fact FO’s full metric, Adjusted Line Yards (ALY), ranked the Colts as tied for the third-best in the NFL, and they were first in the NFL in ALY on runs up the middle. Their ALY of runs up the middle of 4.95 was 0.51 better than the second place Dallas Cowboys (4.44)."

 

The problem with that article is that leaps to one conclusion, without searching for other explanations or establishing a correlation between the statistics and the conclusion.  In other words, the statistics supporting the argument are weak at best.

 

The analysis does not account for the fact that Gore is one of if not the best in the league at getting positive yardage on a play.  In fact, if you look at the top rushers in the league over the time that Gore has been with the Colts he is the second best in the league (of RBs with at least 400 carries and at 3.5 ypc) at avoiding negative runs, and keeping the negative yardage to a minimum.  He has had negative plays on only 8.22% of his carries.  Matt Forte has been the best at 8.03%.  Guys like DeMarco and McCoy are in the 12-15% range.  And, Gore typically has the least avg. loss on negative plays. 

 

You can try to attribute this to the offensive line, but this is what Gore has been doing since he came into the league.  It is his style.  He looks for openings at the line and if a crease or lane does not form, he darts forward trying to at least get back to the line.  It's not going to result in Gore being sprung for big yards, but it limits negative plays for the offensive in general and makes the OL look better than it is.  

 

So, an equal or more probable interpretation of the cited stats is that Gore remains good at avoiding negative plays and getting hard fought yards between the tackles, even where the line was not able to open holes, but the line still has problems springing the RBs, including Gore, for big gains.  My review of games tells me this is by far the more probable explanation.

 

The funny part to me, however, is the pining people have for "homerun" hitting backs.  They only produce two or three long runs per season, but the trade off is a lot of negative runs that stall drives.  There is a reason why the Hall of Fame is filled with guys around the 4 ypc mark (Emmitt - 4.2; Martin 4.0; LT - 4.3; Bettis -- 3.9; Dorsett -- 4.3; Allen - 4.1; Harris -- 4.1; Thomas -- 4.2),, most of whom had multiple seasons under 4 ypc -- games are won by controlling the clock and moving the yardsticks, not by the occasional "homerun" highlight.  The homerun type runs are great for fantasy football, but they're far less important in real games. 

 

Frankly, I think the author of that article really just doesn't understand football, or he has an outcome he wants to support.  He didn't do it very well.

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On 5/13/2017 at 11:31 PM, Jared Cisneros said:

The biggest sleeper pick for us is Zach Banner. Hooker, Wilson, and Basham should be day 1 starters. Mack isn't a sleeper as he's expected to be good among Colts fans and we drafted him to get a heavy workload very soon. Here's where it gets tricky. Grover Stewart is the definition of a sleeper, but we are also hoping he makes the team and can standout somehow with all the depth and players on the D-Line. He's more of a guy we are hoping hits and makes the 53 man roster 100%. Hairston I see more as depth right now than a sleeper. Anthony Walker is the closest to Banner as he will make the team, should be able to stand out, and will have every opportunity. Just don't know how Ballard and Pagano will fit him in as a starter or as a backup yet and how good he really is. This leaves Banner. He's big, has a definite job, will get playing time at 4 possible positions, and the versatility gives him the best chance at being a sleeper and making an impact for us. I think he could start for us at some point as early as this year, and his mere size gives him a chance to be a solid NFL player if he gets his technique down.

 

On 5/15/2017 at 6:50 AM, krunk said:

One of the things I like about Banner in terms of his personality is he seems to be vocal. When you talk about instilling that pride that we had under the Peyton days its good to get some vocal guys in that group instead of all these quiet types. Obviously he has to do his part as well but I like his upside

 

On 5/18/2017 at 0:07 AM, rockywoj said:

My choice for sleeper pick is ...

 

Round 4, No. 137: Zach Banner, OT, USC

 

A real interesting article about him from the Indy Star ... http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2017/05/13/mammoth-rookie-has-big-personality-bigger-challenge-ahead-him/321281001/

 

I agree.  I think if Banner puts it all together, maybe gets some playing time this year as a backup, he could become an OLine stalwart for the next 10-15 years.  He's got the size, tools, and personality to be a great NFL tackle.  I think he could play in any system, too.  I don't know if we can say that for the other rookies.

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On 5/17/2017 at 11:07 PM, rockywoj said:

My choice for sleeper pick is ...

 

Round 4, No. 137: Zach Banner, OT, USC

 

A real interesting article about him from the Indy Star ... http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2017/05/13/mammoth-rookie-has-big-personality-bigger-challenge-ahead-him/321281001/

It drives me crazy the way Pagano praises players before they even have earned their keep.

He is an eclipse, he takes up the whole locker room, a rolling ball of butcher knives.

It appears certain players are entitled to a roster spot before they even play the

first pre-season game.

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14 hours ago, dodsworth said:

It drives me crazy the way Pagano praises players before they even have earned their keep.

He is an eclipse, he takes up the whole locker room, a rolling ball of butcher knives.

It appears certain players are entitled to a roster spot before they even play the

first pre-season game.

I have five words for you ...

 

Lincoln Kennedy is his Father!

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I didn't know much about Stewart but after reading and hearing Ballard say he could very well be our most athletic DL right now. I'm going to say Grover Stewart! 

We all know Hooker and Wilson are starters. But I think everyone will make some sort of impact before the season is over. 

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As much as I hate to say it, I believe injuries will end up defining who our sleeper pick turns out to be. I think the O-line is close to being set but with injury, Banner may emerge. The D-line has a lot of depth but given injuries and his (hopeful) progression, Grover could be the man. Inside linebacker injuries could bring in Walker. Basham and Mack could get increased reps. The way the NFL seasons go anymore, injuries are a certainty and Ballard drafted some rookies that could step in if they haven't won the job already.

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