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Mel Kiper says the Patriots had one of the best drafts.


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http://draftwire.usatoday.com/2017/04/30/espns-mel-kiper-patriots-chargers-earn-top-grades-in-2017-nfl-draft/

 

I think it's absurd for a team who barely had any draft picks at all to have the best draft. Signing players in the offseason by trading away draft picks doesn't count as a draft.

 

This is just more trash attesting to sports writers love of jumping on the Patriots bandwagon. The Patriots could have traded away all their picks and sports writers would have said the Patriots are brilliant.

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Yeah, taking into account the amount of picks they had, they did OK.  Nothing earth-shattering, but OK.  I think we stole one of theirs in Basham.  I think they liked him, just from what I've heard.  I think they took Rivers as a back-up option.  Of course people lie around draft time so who knows?  Antonio Garcia, Deatrich Wise, and Connor McDermott are all decent picks but nothing special IMHO.  Of course people will include the trades they did prior to the draft since it included draft picks, fair or not.

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I think it's fair to say their first and second round picks are represented by the low paid Cooks and Ealy, and in that respect, they had a good return for their draft picks. They only came away from the weekend with three other picks, so I don't think they had a great return, at all. And the fact that Cooks and Ealy will hit free agency over the next two years detracts from their return, also.

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

I think it's fair to say their first and second round picks are represented by the low paid Cooks and Ealy, and in that respect, they had a good return for their draft picks. They only came away from the weekend with three other picks, so I don't think they had a great return, at all. And the fact that Cooks and Ealy will hit free agency over the next two years detracts from their return, also.

 

 

They will pay Cooks 8.4 mill in 2018. IMO it's really hard to equate a year of Cooks at around 2 mill and then the next at 8.4 compared to pick 1.32. No doubt the Pats are smart enough to know Brady has to start declining in his 40's. So this makes sense for them but Kiper saying they had one of the best drafts is just nonsense. He has no more idea of how to value this strategy than you or I.

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19 minutes ago, dw49 said:

They will pay Cooks 8.4 mill in 2018. IMO it's really hard to equate a year of Cooks at around 2 mill and then the next at 8.4 compared to pick 1.32. No doubt the Pats are smart enough to know Brady has to start declining in his 40's. So this makes sense for them but Kiper saying they had one of the best drafts is just nonsense. He has no more idea of how to value this strategy than you or I.

 

I forgot about Cooks' roster bonus. I thought they were paying him $800k, it's actually $1.6m. Still, not expensive, relatively. The question is what he does for their receiving corps. If he's an ace, then having him for two years at around $10m total, for their team, is a win. Ealy is the one that will get expensive quickly, as he's a 2nd rounder with no fifth year option, so they'll have to pay him or tag him.

 

For both of them, if they don't play well, they will represent blown picks. But still, the risk is lower with established 4th year players than with rookies, and both have a solid history of production. The Pats kind of pushed all in to stay at the top of the league for the next couple years.

 

I don't think it's that hard to value the strategy. It's all about how well those players play, which is typical for traded players. I do think saying they had one of the best drafts is nonsense. I'm not a huge fan of anyone they actually drafted, and they have quick decision points on the players they traded for. 

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31 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I forgot about Cooks' roster bonus. I thought they were paying him $800k, it's actually $1.6m. Still, not expensive, relatively. The question is what he does for their receiving corps. If he's an ace, then having him for two years at around $10m total, for their team, is a win. Ealy is the one that will get expensive quickly, as he's a 2nd rounder with no fifth year option, so they'll have to pay him or tag him.

 

For both of them, if they don't play well, they will represent blown picks. But still, the risk is lower with established 4th year players than with rookies, and both have a solid history of production. The Pats kind of pushed all in to stay at the top of the league for the next couple years.

 

I don't think it's that hard to value the strategy. It's all about how well those players play, which is typical for traded players. I do think saying they had one of the best drafts is nonsense. I'm not a huge fan of anyone they actually drafted, and they have quick decision points on the players they traded for. 

 

 

By no idea of how to "value" the strategy , I mean it's pretty difficult to compare their draft to say Tennessee's . I think it was no doubt smart by NE , I'm just saying that it's pretty stupid to make the statement that they had one of the best drafts.

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Bill B must not have been a fan of this draft. The Pats are doing something strange, almost like a "win now" mode in desperation which is so unlike them. It's as if they know Brady and Bill B don't have much time left and they are trying to repeat as quickly as possible (yeah, I know, Brady says he can play 5-6 more years, but I highly doubt it. Brady is one bad game like Favre in the NFCCG from facing an injury IMO.) 

 

 

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I don't think it's terribly complicated... really just two factors:

 

  1. Belichick obviously didn't like this draft quite as much as most of the analysts. Like any team, the Patriots evaluate players based on how they would fit within their system. This creates some divergence between what we hear from Mel Kiper and his colleagues and what individual teams may think of prospects. There is also a possibility that he's seen the team's average age trend younger... last year they were somewhere around 10th or 12th in that category I think, even with a 39-year-old quarterback. He may want to even that out a bit and keep the team more in the middle of the pack in that area. Experience is important. 
  2. There is a fairly obvious "win now" mentality going on that is inevitably tied to the twilight of Brady's career and, perhaps, Belichick's. No one except Bob Kraft knows for sure about BB, but it certainly seems like they're loading up with proven players more than they have in the past. 
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9 hours ago, GoPats said:

 

I don't think it's terribly complicated... really just two factors:

 

  1. Belichick obviously didn't like this draft quite as much as most of the analysts. Like any team, the Patriots evaluate players based on how they would fit within their system. This creates some divergence between what we hear from Mel Kiper and his colleagues and what individual teams may think of prospects. There is also a possibility that he's seen the team's average age trend younger... last year they were somewhere around 10th or 12th in that category I think, even with a 39-year-old quarterback. He may want to even that out a bit and keep the team more in the middle of the pack in that area. Experience is important. 
  2. There is a fairly obvious "win now" mentality going on that is inevitably tied to the twilight of Brady's career and, perhaps, Belichick's. No one except Bob Kraft knows for sure about BB, but it certainly seems like they're loading up with proven players more than they have in the past. 

 

I think it's far more #2 than #1. The bolded is a good point, but probably an auxiliary factor. They're in "win now" mode, and they had a bunch of cap space, and can still roll forward $10-15m next year, to go with the $30m they'll have already, all of which is unfortunate for the rest of the league.

 

I think maybe Belichick realized how popular this draft class is, and realized his early picks were a little more valuable this year than they typically are, so he flipped them for vets, knowing they had the cap space to retain them.

 

It's no coincidence that his deals were with teams that have serious cap considerations. The Panthers had to pay Kawann Short, so it was going to be hard to keep Ealy. They have some other FAs as well. The Saints seem to be the worst team in the league at managing the cap (which is especially ironic since they haven't even gone .500 in three consecutive seasons), but they keep spending money. And while the Colts are fine cap wise, they didn't want to pay two average-ish TEs a total of $14m. 

 

Good timing for the Pats. I just don't necessarily think it was an indication that Belichick didn't like this draft class as much as other teams. I think he just decided to maximize the value of his draft picks on the basis of how good this draft is, which is probably going to work out well for his team, given their current makeup. 

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In terms of their actual draft picks, Derek Rivers is the only one who I could see becoming a productive starter in the future. Conor McDermott and Antonio Garcia are below average. 

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Yeah, I'll value the strategy: it's moronic and short sighted.  Getting Brandon Cooks and this Ealy guy for one year is in no way better than getting a first rounder for five years and a second rounder for four years.  Any other team and the "experts" w/b deriding the short-term gain as running the team into the ground.  As for the Pats' actual picks, none were really personal faves of mine.  Rivers had gotten ridiculously over-hyped, but they ended up taking him about where he deserved to go (or maybe a little too high imo).  They did okay, but a fairly poor draft in all even after factoring getting Cooks and Ealy for the short term...

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On 5/1/2017 at 4:36 AM, AZColt11 said:

Yeah, taking into account the amount of picks they had, they did OK.  Nothing earth-shattering, but OK.  I think we stole one of theirs in Basham.  I think they liked him, just from what I've heard.  I think they took Rivers as a back-up option.  Of course people lie around draft time so who knows?  Antonio Garcia, Deatrich Wise, and Connor McDermott are all decent picks but nothing special IMHO.  Of course people will include the trades they did prior to the draft since it included draft picks, fair or not.

Initially they may look like nothing special, but what can make them special is that the Patriots know how to develop thier players and use them according to thier strengths. With the way they know how to develop and effectively use players, a 4th round pick for them can be as good as 1st rounder for majority of other teams. 

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11 hours ago, Archer said:

Yeah, I'll value the strategy: it's moronic and short sighted.  Getting Brandon Cooks and this Ealy guy for one year is in no way better than getting a first rounder for five years and a second rounder for four years.  Any other team and the "experts" w/b deriding the short-term gain as running the team into the ground.  As for the Pats' actual picks, none were really personal faves of mine.  Rivers had gotten ridiculously over-hyped, but they ended up taking him about where he deserved to go (or maybe a little too high imo).  They did okay, but a fairly poor draft in all even after factoring getting Cooks and Ealy for the short term...

 

Not exactly Archer, time will tell. 

 

Regarding Ealy and Cooks, I have a few points.

 

First, Ealy was in a trade in which the Pats gave Carolina its 2nd round pick in exchange for Ealy and Carolina's 3rd round pick.  In the end the Pats dropped only 8 spots in the draft, from 64th to 72nd overall, in exchange for getting Ealy.   As they eventually traded down that 72nd pick is an indication that there was likely no one at this point in the draft they wanted anyways.  So is not as big a loss as one may think, bottom line 8 spots for Ealy in the end and in an area one may not be drafting anyways. 

 

Second, regarding Cooks, things are a little different agreed,  True Pats gave up a 32nd 5 year pick for the last two years of a 20th pick.  As sometimes rookies can struggle in their first year, that can be kind of a waste based on their potential.  So the Pats are getting the two best years of a first round pick.  As Edelman and Amendola are in their early 30s, one or both, will likely not be here three years hence.  The Pats will then have the option to keep Cooks (at a price of course), and Mitchell and Hogan.   Also, BB is not the best at drafting high talent WRs, so to get a known quantity that could be resigned when other WRs retire, I am not too worried about the other two years or so we might loose.  In the end Cooks is a know quantity and who knows what a 32nd WR might bring given BB's draft history on WRs

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I guess is comes down to whether one considers the “draft” as only being what you draft on draft day, or what you get for your draft picks in a given year.  If one views the latter, then the Pats had a solid “draft.” 

 

A quick look at the players obtained via trade or draft with the Pats draft picks from 2017.

 

Rnd 1. traded for Brandon Cooks

As I mentioned to Archer, Cooks is a known quantity, have him for two years, can resign him if either Amendola or Edelman are not here in two years.  As BB is not the best at drafting WR top talent, I am happy with a known quantity in his last two seasons of his rookie contract.

 
Rnd 2. traded for Kony Ealy
In the end, we dropped only 8 spots in the draft to get one year of Ealy at DL.  I will take a one year rental for 8 spots in the draft.  He brings depth to the DL and was solid in SB 50.  And we were not drafting in that spot in the draft, indeed, we traded down.

 

Rnd 3. drafted Derek Rivers

I like this guy’s measurables and helped his team get to the Div 1 championship game.  Also as depth to the Des, had great senior season.


Rnd 3. drafted Tony Garcia

Given the age and health of Solder, nice to have some depth at tackle.  Although this guy did not go to a major school, he did not allow a sack in his senior season which was a great season for him. 


Rnd 4. traded for Dwayne Allen
With the departure of Bennett, TE depth is important and Allen should be able to fill this roll nicely.

 

Rnd 4. drafted for Deatrich Wise

As with Garcia, I like this guy’s measurables, from the SEC and as depth to the DEs


Rnd 5. traded for James O'Shaughnessy
Not sure about this guy, but TE depth is nice to have.  Also, it only cost the Pats 33 spots at the bottom of the draft.

 

Rnd 5. signed RFA Mike Gillislee

With likely the departure of Blount, nice to have a younger replacement for Blount on the team.  Two years for Gillislee for a 5th rounder.


Rnd 6. drafted Conor McDermott

6’8”, 305 tackle late in the draft, I take it.

 

In the end the Pats filled holes in their roster.  They added Cooks who will add to the already strong WR core and has future potential.  With our concerns at tackle we have some draftees that could fill the void.  And the same with DEs. 

 

The Pats are not against one year rentals and I love the Ealy trade for a spot in the draft we were not going to draft anyways. 

 

And nice to see we have some TE depth.

 

All in all, I think it was a solid draft for the Pats.

 

As for the “win now” component, I do not buy that the Pats are doing this as the Pats have let a lot of “named” talent leave in the past few years, Bennett, Jones, Collins, Ryan, etc (and why we have so much cap space btw).  If they wanted to win now, they would have kept some of those players.  Essentially there is short term and long term reasons for most of the pats moves and why I do not think they are trying to win now imo.   

 

The Pats did signed Gilmore, but I look at that as basically a 4 mil upgrade over Ryan (who got 10 ml/3 yrs) and my sense is that Butler may be gone after next year and the Pats wanted some insurance at CB and can use Butler’s and Ryan’s money towards Gilmore.  Also, with Gilmore, only 31 mil is guaranteed with an additional 9 mil which only becomes guaranteed in March 2109, so they can cut him after 3 years and it will be 3 years/13 mil per, so not the end of the world.  My two cents.

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I was unaware that there was only an 8 spot drop for Ealy - I was thinking of it as a whole round.  I overstated when I said "moronic", but I have a hard time believing that one or two years of Cooks is worth the # 32 pick in this draft.  That's missing out on Mixon, or Cam Robinson, or Bowser, or whoever...  And, I'd be very surprised if Allen gave you much...

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what i think is funny is that if some other team had made these exact same moves, they would not be getting a high grade for it now

 

the patriots could have done (almost) literally anything and they would have ranked a top ten draft by some of these analysts

 

 

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im not blown away by the cook trade, there were a lot of good players on the board.  they could use a WR though.  it was a decent move but not an amazing one.  i grade this a B

 

as for the allen trade, i would have taken a fifth or sixth just to dump his contract.  he has/had talent, but hes been hurt a bunch, and to me it seemed like the bigger the moment was, the worse he played.  A for the colts, B minus for the patriots

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1 hour ago, Yehoodi said:

I guess is comes down to whether one considers the “draft” as only being what you draft on draft day, or what you get for your draft picks in a given year.  If one views the latter, then the Pats had a solid “draft.” 

 

A quick look at the players obtained via trade or draft with the Pats draft picks from 2017.

 

Rnd 1. traded for Brandon Cooks

As I mentioned to Archer, Cooks is a known quantity, have him for two years, can resign him if either Amendola or Edelman are not here in two years.  As BB is not the best at drafting WR top talent, I am happy with a known quantity in his last two seasons of his rookie contract.

 
Rnd 2. traded for Kony Ealy
In the end, we dropped only 8 spots in the draft to get one year of Ealy at DL.  I will take a one year rental for 8 spots in the draft.  He brings depth to the DL and was solid in SB 50.  And we were not drafting in that spot in the draft, indeed, we traded down.

 

Rnd 3. drafted Derek Rivers

I like this guy’s measurables and helped his team get to the Div 1 championship game.  Also as depth to the Des, had great senior season.


Rnd 3. drafted Tony Garcia

Given the age and health of Solder, nice to have some depth at tackle.  Although this guy did not go to a major school, he did not allow a sack in his senior season which was a great season for him. 


Rnd 4. traded for Dwayne Allen
With the departure of Bennett, TE depth is important and Allen should be able to fill this roll nicely.

 

Rnd 4. drafted for Deatrich Wise

As with Garcia, I like this guy’s measurables, from the SEC and as depth to the DEs


Rnd 5. traded for James O'Shaughnessy
Not sure about this guy, but TE depth is nice to have.  Also, it only cost the Pats 33 spots at the bottom of the draft.

 

Rnd 5. signed RFA Mike Gillislee

With likely the departure of Blount, nice to have a younger replacement for Blount on the team.  Two years for Gillislee for a 5th rounder.


Rnd 6. drafted Conor McDermott

6’8”, 305 tackle late in the draft, I take it.

 

In the end the Pats filled holes in their roster.  They added Cooks who will add to the already strong WR core and has future potential.  With our concerns at tackle we have some draftees that could fill the void.  And the same with DEs. 

 

The Pats are not against one year rentals and I love the Ealy trade for a spot in the draft we were not going to draft anyways. 

 

And nice to see we have some TE depth.

 

All in all, I think it was a solid draft for the Pats.

 

As for the “win now” component, I do not buy that the Pats are doing this as the Pats have let a lot of “named” talent leave in the past few years, Bennett, Jones, Collins, Ryan, etc (and why we have so much cap space btw).  If they wanted to win now, they would have kept some of those players.  Essentially there is short term and long term reasons for most of the pats moves and why I do not think they are trying to win now imo.   

 

The Pats did signed Gilmore, but I look at that as basically a 4 mil upgrade over Ryan (who got 10 ml/3 yrs) and my sense is that Butler may be gone after next year and the Pats wanted some insurance at CB and can use Butler’s and Ryan’s money towards Gilmore.  Also, with Gilmore, only 31 mil is guaranteed with an additional 9 mil which only becomes guaranteed in March 2109, so they can cut him after 3 years and it will be 3 years/13 mil per, so not the end of the world.  My two cents.

Draft grades to me are just that - who you drafted.  Trading picks for players is more free agency to me, but if you want to grade it all, just call it an "offseason grade" or something like that.

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3 hours ago, Archer said:

I was unaware that there was only an 8 spot drop for Ealy - I was thinking of it as a whole round.  I overstated when I said "moronic", but I have a hard time believing that one or two years of Cooks is worth the # 32 pick in this draft.  That's missing out on Mixon, or Cam Robinson, or Bowser, or whoever...  And, I'd be very surprised if Allen gave you much...

 

I am not sure yet on Allen, you guys know him better than we Pats fans.  My guess will be he will be a good role player, like a poor man's Bennett.  A compliment to Gronk as opposed to a fill in like Bennett could have and was for Gronk.  Time will tell. 

 

Getting back to Cooks, I can surely understand folks sentiment between 5 yrs vs. 2 yrs.  Once and a while one does not mind paying a little premium for a luxury, like a known quantity.  

 

For the most part I trust BB, he rarely makes a mistake, and Pats do at times will go with paying a little premium for convenience, timing, no other options, etc..  True they will typically go for the value end of things which pans out over the long haul, like 5 yrs to 2 yrs.

 

My guess, and hope, is that BB feels that Cooks fits into our system (which he should as he is a deep threat compliment to the rest of our offense) and that he might keep him for a longer haul than just 2 years.  Perhaps BB did not feel comfortable with what he could get in the draft for WRs at the of the first round.   But yes we will have to wait a bit on Cooks to see how the decision pans out. 

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3 hours ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Draft grades to me are just that - who you drafted.  Trading picks for players is more free agency to me, but if you want to grade it all, just call it an "offseason grade" or something like that.

 

Agreed.  However one wants to qualify the labels.  For the most part I will look at the "draft" as what you draft on draft day.  
 

And I agree that it can be misleading if one does not place a clear qualifier in ones views/articles, that they are including all results from the draft.  

 

I do like your label and it would be better to come at it with a different label as you described, as for the most part folks take draft as what one drafts.  

 

 

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3 hours ago, aaron11 said:

im not blown away by the cook trade, there were a lot of good players on the board.  they could use a WR though.  it was a decent move but not an amazing one.  i grade this a B

 

as for the allen trade, i would have taken a fifth or sixth just to dump his contract.  he has/had talent, but hes been hurt a bunch, and to me it seemed like the bigger the moment was, the worse he played.  A for the colts, B minus for the patriots

 

I hoping that Allen can give us some good touches, maybe 40-60 catches, 400-600 yards and be active in the red zone.  We do like our TEs and am hoping he can get some more touches than he might of gotten in Indy.  

 

Altho Gronk is tough, he is a target of defenders and perhaps is not the most agile person to avoid damaging hits.  I always cringe when he is rumbling down the open field before a low tackle.

 

Would of love to thrown the cash at Bennett but it was not to be.  Am excited about Allen, just hope he can stay healthy.    

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17 hours ago, weslo1812 said:

Initially they may look like nothing special, but what can make them special is that the Patriots know how to develop thier players and use them according to thier strengths. With the way they know how to develop and effectively use players, a 4th round pick for them can be as good as 1st rounder for majority of other teams. 

I would agree with that.  The Pats seem to be able to make about anybody shine like a diamond.  I was just going off of what they got at face value.  It was OK.  Rivers was a good pick.  The rest just OK IMHO.  I'm sure BB will coach them up to their full potential.  Thank goodness they didn't get a guy like Hooker because he would probably have about 20 INT's in that system!

 

What REALLY helped them though was what they did pre-draft.

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30 minutes ago, King Colt said:

How well any team does in any draft can only be judged by how well their players play. Accordingly, the Patriots draft better than any team in history.  

Well being the Patriots are the most fined team in NFL history does that mean they have cheated more than any other team in the NFL?

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For whatever it's worth.....

 

Mel Kiper Jr. is not the only analyst to say the Pats had one of the best drafts....

 

So did both Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks.   

 

Yes,  the used the players acquired in trades (Cooks, Ealy, Allen) to factor in those grades...

 

So, Mel is in good company...

 

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