A discussion on the AFC South after Round 1

[Surge89]

So I'd like to discuss the status of what has been one of the worst divisions in football the past couple of years and where the trend is going.  I'm of the opinion that last year was a huge upwards arrow for every team in the division, and this draft is going to continue that trend. 

 

First the Jags:  The Jaguars came into last night with no true offensive identity and a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball.  Drafting Fournette I think helps both phases of the ball for them and gives them a true identity to play off of.  Is Bortles the answer?  No I don't think so, but I also don't think it matters because if the defense can play up to their talent level and the offense can generate even a 10% increase in production off of Fournette they will be immensely better. Longer possessions by the offense means the defense has time and opposing offenses may be more prone to throwing the ball which is great for a back field that has Smith. 

 

Second the Titans:  Let me start with their first pick. They could have done worse in Ross but they could have done so much better.  Mariotta did need a complete receiver to take the top off of someone and possession, but man its hard to justify Davis when Howard is there who I'd say arguably is the most efficient pick for the team. They also had a legit shot at Adams and Lattimore who I'd say starts over any of their mediocre talent they have.  Their second pick on the other hand, is a great one.  They improve the back end of their mediocre secondary with a playmaker.  While doing so they also get a returner who can actually threaten people in the special teams game.  This will be a noticeable improvement for them in not only scoring ability on returns but starting offensive field position. On top of the need for a good corner. 

 

Third the Texans:  Oh boy.  This QB class wasn't much to write home about.  I'm not a fan of Kizer nor Trubisky.  I think Mahomes has definite potential but needed a good learning opportunity (which I think he got btw) but how can anyone not say the Texans absolutely stole the best QB of the draft is beyond me.  They got a guy who, yes he needs work mechanically and the finer points of reading coverage, but is a proven winner with big time game experience against NFL level talent.  Look at the defenses he has played in his college career.  Most of the people he has played against, he will be playing again in the NFL.  This kid needed to go to a team where he wasn't the savior just the last piece.  And that is exactly what he got.  The Texans in my mind are legitimate favorites to win the division and deservedly so. Plus it helps when you are going to be throwing to Hopkins and Fuller 2 explosive guys who can make a QB look better than what he really is. (unless your Osweiler lol sorry Texans fans)

 

Fourth the Colts:  Now for our Colts.  The Texans stole the best QB of the draft and the Colts had to answer.  And you know what?  They did.  Indy stole the best coverage safety in the draft right from under a bunch of panic stricken teams noses. Hooker is exactly what Luck needs on the opposite side of the ball.  We scored a ton of points per game last year, the issue was we couldn't stop anyone from doing the same back.  Hooker immediately changes that.  If people wanna shootout with Luck they have to go through Hooker first and just ask Watson how scary it is to throw over the seams against Hooker.  It isn't fun. I'm so happy that the future of Indy looks so incredibly bright especially since the future of our division opponents looks just as good.  Btw the signings of the new OLB we got in the offseason fit so well with out first.  2 great edge containment guys who may not rush the passer at an elite level but can control the run game of opposing teams.  Which of course means more people are gonna have to pass on our defense which seems a lot less desirable than it did 24 hours ago...

 

Loving this draft.  I hope it keeps going great!

[SkyBane]

Anyone who loves what the Texans did last night is kidding themselves. Leveraging your entire next year draft on a reach for a QB prospect is a massive gamble. If this doesn't result in championships really quick, then Rick Smith has done goofed, as they have no resources in the future to maintain the current roster. This feels like a move made out of fear because of the run on QB's that started with San Fran absolutely duping Chicago.

 

Then the kicker comes out today with BoB making proclamations like this:

 

 

This is dangerous territory, and you can't go screwing around like this when you've leveraged your entire future on this kid. This whole thing feels like a panic move that's being mismanaged. The game is early, and there's no saying things won't work out, but in the moment this feels like a panic move with immediate buyers regret.

[Surge89]

57 minutes ago, SkyBane said:

Anyone who loves what the Texans did last night is kidding themselves. Leveraging your entire next year draft on a reach for a QB prospect is a massive gamble. If this doesn't result in championships really quick, then Rick Smith has done goofed, as they have no resources in the future to maintain the current roster. This feels like a move made out of fear because of the run on QB's that started with San Fran absolutely duping Chicago.

 

Then the kicker comes out today with BoB making proclamations like this:

 

 

This is dangerous territory, and you can't go screwing around like this when you've leveraged your entire future on this kid. This whole thing feels like a panic move that's being mismanaged. The game is early, and there's no saying things won't work out, but in the moment this feels like a panic move with immediate buyers regret.

 

I see your point and it is valid.  But I implore you to see the counter argument which I think is stronger. The Texans literally need one piece.  They know it and so does the world.  If during the whole process they believed Watson is the best QB in the class (which is entirely plausible) then when they see him slip out of the top 10 they have an opportunity to get take care of the biggest and most important piece they can fix.  They've given up one year for a QB who might make them a legitimate super bowl contender.  If this works out I'd sacrifice that all day every day.   This isn't comparable to the redskins who mortgaged their entire future for a QB.  This is literally just one year.  Your exaggeration on the cost is what doesn't make sense to me.  If it doesn't work they are where they were anyways and can rebuild after the project is done.  

[SkyBane]

5 minutes ago, Surge89 said:

 

I see your point and it is valid.  But I implore you to see the counter argument which I think is stronger. The Texans literally need one piece.  They know it and so does the world.  If during the whole process they believed Watson is the best QB in the class (which is entirely plausible) then when they see him slip out of the top 10 they have an opportunity to get take care of the biggest and most important piece they can fix.  They've given up one year for a QB who might make them a legitimate super bowl contender.  If this works out I'd sacrifice that all day every day.   This isn't comparable to the redskins who mortgaged their entire future for a QB.  This is literally just one year.  Your exaggeration on the cost is what doesn't make sense to me.  If it doesn't work they are where they were anyways and can rebuild after the project is done.  

It's no exaggeration. They are in borderline cap hell and are already shedding defensive players to stay under the cap. They don't have a first or second round pick next year, which means they will have extremely limited influx of young talent to replace those expensive dudes they can't pay for. If Watson isn't THE guy, then the entire roster has to be blown up and you start from scratch, as it's reaching the point where the window is shutting quick due to age, money, and no draft picks to supplement either.

 

They've traded Ossweiler, 2 1st rounders, and a 2nd rounder for Watson. They've bet the farm on him. This is essentially Rick Smith's final gambit.

[ColtsBlueFL]

31 minutes ago, SkyBane said:

It's no exaggeration. They are in borderline cap hell and are already shedding defensive players to stay under the cap. They don't have a first or second round pick next year, which means they will have extremely limited influx of young talent to replace those expensive dudes they can't pay for. If Watson isn't THE guy, then the entire roster has to be blown up and you start from scratch, as it's reaching the point where the window is shutting quick due to age, money, and no draft picks to supplement either.

 

They've traded Ossweiler, 2 1st rounders, and a 2nd rounder for Watson. They've bet the farm on him. This is essentially Rick Smith's final gambit.

 

The cap will grow the next few years, so who do they have to fork out big money on in the next two years?  They have Watson for 5 (taking year 5 option). They can add depth with 3-7th rounders next year if cap increase allows them to keep the ir team intact.

 

Rookie contract salary, through 4 years for Watson-

 

Total contract            Signing bonus

$13,868,013

$9,311,37

[Mr.Scarface]

2 hours ago, SkyBane said:

It's no exaggeration. They are in borderline cap hell and are already shedding defensive players to stay under the cap. They don't have a first or second round pick next year, which means they will have extremely limited influx of young talent to replace those expensive dudes they can't pay for. If Watson isn't THE guy, then the entire roster has to be blown up and you start from scratch, as it's reaching the point where the window is shutting quick due to age, money, and no draft picks to supplement either.

 

They've traded Ossweiler, 2 1st rounders, and a 2nd rounder for Watson. They've bet the farm on him. This is essentially Rick Smith's final gambit.

 

The Texans are not in cap hell.  Currently, the are about $30 million under the cap....before rookie signings.   They have money to sign Hopkins to a long term deal and sign some Free agents.   They also will now have money to sign Clowney next season.   Getting rid of Brock did WONDERS for their cap flexibility.  Now....they will have a QB under his rookie contract for 5 years.

 

They felt Bouye wasn't worth more that $12.5 million a year.  So they let him go........

[BR-549]

Chris Carter said he thinks they will be in the SB this year... if that means anything to anyone.  I like him, but he isn't the know all end all.  

 

... I know they (Texans) are solid, but 9-7 and barely beating our crap roster last year??  They didn't, as usual, make any noise in the playoffs.... someone from our division had to go and it probably should have been Tenn.  They might even have given NE a game... who knows.

 

It is my feeling that the division is way more competitive now, including JX, and I like that.  It makes winning it more valuable and hopefully all the crap talk that it is the weakest division (and I don't think it is or was last year even) will end.

 

I doubt that D. Watson will play much next year until at a minimum later in the year (game 10 or later) and then he will be making his rookie mistakes.  DB's in the NFL appear out of nowhere and he won't be used to that.  I just don't see it.  

 

I think the resurgence of the Colts is on its way, perhaps not this year- but soon.  Hope....It is why we are fans.

[King Colt]

Listening to 610AM in Houston today all personalities agreed all four teams did very well on their picks and one called Hooker "scary". Should be a very close race in the AFC South. Bring it on.

[Nesjan3]

Watson is not the best QB in the draft by any means, some including myself consider him not even top 3. None of the quarterbacks in this draft are starters, the qb merry go round i bet will continue this season, between Savage and Watson/

[jradMT]

10 hours ago, SkyBane said:

It's no exaggeration. They are in borderline cap hell and are already shedding defensive players to stay under the cap. They don't have a first or second round pick next year, which means they will have extremely limited influx of young talent to replace those expensive dudes they can't pay for. If Watson isn't THE guy, then the entire roster has to be blown up and you start from scratch, as it's reaching the point where the window is shutting quick due to age, money, and no draft picks to supplement either.

 

They've traded Ossweiler, 2 1st rounders, and a 2nd rounder for Watson. They've bet the farm on him. This is essentially Rick Smith's final gambit.

 

The Texans have 70 Mil in cap space for 2018, and with some obvious cuts (Cushing) they will have 80+ next year.  They gave up next year's first to get Watson, not sure how that is a huge gamble, the pick will probably be in the late teens -20s.  Next year's 2nd brought in another 16M from OS, easily enough to sign a starter or two and a completely different transaction not part of Watson trade.  In fact if you look at the value chart they gave up little.  They aren't shedding defensive players, they aren't overpaying for a fourth corner or signing a 32 year old safety to a 6M or a oft injured OLB to a big deal.  Because they let the players walk, they'll be getting multiple compensatory picks in 2018 including a 3rd for Bouye.

 

All in all the Texans are poised to sign Hopkins and Clowney and still be able to make a big run at multiple FA next year and have enough comp picks to help fill in the gap between losing the 1 and 2.  They are in very good shape going forward cap and personnel wise.

[BOTT]

It's telling when the best thing you can say about a rookie QB is "he's a proven winner".  

 

Still can't believe the Titans passed on all the available defensive talent to select a WR.  God bless you Tennessee.

 

I would never select a RB with 4th pick of the draft, but I like the direction the jags are headed. Going to be a physical team.

 

[Surge89]

14 hours ago, BOTT said:

It's telling when the best thing you can say about a rookie QB is "he's a proven winner".  

 

Still can't believe the Titans passed on all the available defensive talent to select a WR.  God bless you Tennessee.

 

I would never select a RB with 4th pick of the draft, but I like the direction the jags are headed. Going to be a physical team.

 

 

Its true Watson does have flaws but I feel like his performances under the lights hold at least a little weight :-)

 

Yea Tenn first pick is really underwhelming.  But then again he may be the key to unlocking Marriotta so who knows?

 

Agree on the RB but gotta admit Leonard is a way better offensive pick than the QBs that were available and he actually compliments the rest of the team.  

[coltsfanatic24]

The AFC south has improved significantly. There should be two playoff teams this year from the the division. 

[Chucklez]

On 4/30/2017 at 4:41 PM, coltsfanatic24 said:

The AFC south has improved significantly. There should be two playoff teams this year from the the division. 

Let's not get toooo ahead of ourselves...

 

You really think that whoever comes second in our division will also come above one of the following teams for the 5th or 6 seed?

Steelers / Ravens / Bengals / Raiders / Chiefs / Broncos

 

It's possible but I wouldnt bet the farm on it....

 

[chad72]

Unless Corey Davis is the second coming of Antonio Brown, I don't know the Titans' needed him more than they needed D and I don't know if they did enough defensively in this draft to catch up with us.

 

Jaguars - unless Bortles can show me he can play with a high enough floor, they may even split their series with us but I can't take them seriously as division contenders because of their offensive inconsistency.

 

Texans - they are the true threat, IMO, because I respect their coaching more than any other team's in the division, especially Romeo Crennel. However, if their O does not hold its end of the bargain, any D that is on the field longer than its due share will wear down as the season goes on.

 

A good year on Luck's part was buried in an 8-8 record despite bad play calling and dropsies from his pass catchers, IMO. With an increased room for error, with even a middle of the road D, I expect the Colts to win the division.