Pro Football Outsiders: New Metric predicts RB success

[NewColtsFan]

 

So,  the outside the box thinking website unveiled this new metric for running backs last year and they say they've tweaked it some...      next week they say they'll explain more about that...

 

But they use some formula including body weight at the combine with testing measurements at the combine:   40,  Vertical,  Broad and so on....

 

Here's how they rate the top 7...

 

1.    Fournette     his score is 142 but I don't know what that means.

2.    Cook            his score is 136

3.    Mixon           his score is 115

4.    Brian Hill      his score is 84

5.    Marlon Mack    his score is 80

6.   Christian McCaffrey   his score is 76.   

7.   Samme Perine       his score is 72

 

Listed as potential bust is the popular around here Alvin Kamara with a score of negative 30.

 

For predictive purposes,  I'd like to see how these scores would hold up using them on RB classes of the last 15 years.    If the formula holds,  then you should be able to plug in combine info for all the backs and see if this formula works or not.     Without seeing that,  I'm reluctant to endorse it.

 

But, I'd say this....    if we see Kamara falling and Hill and Mack going sooner than we might expect,  then that might suggest that NFL teams are buying into this....

 

Just food for thought....

 

[OffensivelyPC]

Actually, body type isnt terribly off the mark. I did a WR research on the BMI of top 10 WRs, and the great majority of them had roughly the same BMI (body mass index). I mean, like within a few tenths of each other.

 

Go back 10 years of the top 10 and take the BMI of each. Itll be close to 26.8. I think thats the number anyway. I forget the exact number, I just rounded and use 27 when analyzing.

 

RB had a similar trend,  but it was less exact.

[Track Guy]

I'm guessing it's not based on the combine numbers. Because Kamara fared really well at the combine, and Mixon didn't even compete so I can't see how they can score him based on that. 

 

I'm guessing these numbers come from their college stats, and penalize a guy like Kamara because he had a  much smaller share of total yardage than normal for a top prospect. He was never given the volume that these other guys were, and any metric that likes a RB who has racked up most of his team's yardage or taken lots of carries won't like Kamara. 

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Track Guy said:

I'm guessing it's not based on the combine numbers. Because Kamara fared really well at the combine, and Mixon didn't even compete so I can't see how they can score him based on that. 

 

I'm guessing these numbers come from their college stats, and penalize a guy like Kamara because he had a  much smaller share of total yardage than normal for a top prospect. He was never given the volume that these other guys were, and any metric that likes a RB who has racked up most of his team's yardage or taken lots of carries won't like Kamara. 

 

Tamara did well in two categories at the combine,  the Vert and the Broad jump.     But the other categories he did not do very well in.        Here's his combine profile:

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/alvin-kamara?id=2558019

 

And I'm cutting and pasting the profile on Kamara plus below that is an explanation of their formula.     I'm dong this because you're the guy who really put Kamara on the map here..... 

 

 

Potential bust alert

Alvin Kamara, Tennessee

BackCAST score: -30.4 percent
Type of back: Receiving
Similar historical prospects: Julius Jones, Montario Hardesty

Kamara is not a hopeless case, but it is unusual for a player with this many holes in his BackCAST projection to be rated as a second-round pick by scouts. Kamara had trouble getting carries for the Volunteers. It would be one thing if Kamara had been stuck behind a particularly talented teammate, but the available evidence does not suggest he was permanently locked in some sort of Thurman Thomas/Barry Sanders situation (both played for Oklahoma State at the same time).

Kamara was the clear second running back behind Jalen Hurd as a sophomore (though, in fairness, Hurd was considered a possible future high-round draft pick at the time). During Kamara's junior year, Hurd battled injuries and his production cratered, resulting in an abrupt decision to transfer from Tennessee. Even with Hurd out of the picture, Kamara barely edged out sophomore running back and former three-star recruit John Kelly for carries.

It certainly could be the case that Tennessee's coaches failed to realize what they had in Kamara and that his NFL career will prove them wrong for failing to give him the ball enough times to star on the field. However, Kelly was actually more productive than Kamara on a per-carry basis, so Tennessee's coaches were not clearly wrong to platoon their backs.     KEEP SCROLLING DOWN!    GAP DUE TO FORMATTING!!!

Other signs that Kamara could be a transcendent talent stuck in a bad situation are just not there. He ran a 4.56-second 40-yard dash at 214 pounds, which are firmly average numbers. Kamara averaged more than 6 yards per carry, which is good, but not unusual for a back with relatively few attempts, nor is it a number that makes Kamara stand out among the top prospects at the position.

Kamara has strong receiving numbers, but that should get him only so far. Would teams spend a second-round pick on a player who was going to be the next Travaris Cadet?

---

How BackCAST works

BackCAST is based on a statistical analysis of all of the Division I halfbacks drafted in the years 1998-2015, and measures the following:

• The prospect's weight at the NFL combine.

• The prospect's 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. If he did not run at the combine, BackCAST uses his pro day time.

• The prospect's yards per attempt with an adjustment for running backs who had fewer career carries than an average drafted running back.

• The prospect's AOEPS, which measures how much, on average, the prospect's team used him in the running game during his career relative to the usage of an average drafted running back during the same year of eligibility.

• The prospect's receiving yards per game in his college career.

 

 

[AZColt11]

Hmmmmm....vely intelesting.

[Smonroe]

Yeah, I'd love to see the metrics.  If they're using weight/speed, etc., you would think Mixon would score better than Cook.  You can't calculate desire, vision, play calling either.  

 

Like @NewColtsFan said, it would be very interesting to see how RBs in the last couple years scored.  Like TRich.

[Fisticuffs111]

I've been skeptical of Kamara, not that I trust this rating completely but yeah, interesting to see this.

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Smonroe said:

Yeah, I'd love to see the metrics.  If they're using weight/speed, etc., you would think Mixon would score better than Cook.  You can't calculate desire, vision, play calling either.  

 

Like @NewColtsFan said, it would be very interesting to see how RBs in the last couple years scored.  Like TRich.

 

 

Hey, don't know if you saw it....    but if you scroll up two posts from YOUR post, you'll see the review of Kamara and the listed metrics to show how they came to their conclusions.      I'm not sure it will have all that you and I would like to see,  but it will give you some idea at least...

 

[Smonroe]

55 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

 

Hey, don't know if you saw it....    but if you scroll up two posts from YOUR post, you'll see the review of Kamara and the listed metrics to show how they came to their conclusions.      I'm not sure it will have all that you and I would like to see,  but it will give you some idea at least...

 

 

There has to be more to it.  How could CM score so low?  He's about the same size as Mack with better stats and better metrics.  

 

I know it's just a another website, but they really should take into account the conference/competition.   

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Smonroe said:

 

There has to be more to it.  How could CM score so low?  He's about the same size as Mack with better stats and better metrics.  

 

I know it's just a another website, but they really should take into account the conference/competition.   

 

CMac is 11 pounds smaller than Mack....    and at 5'11" and 202,   there aren't a lot of good comps out there.

 

That's the only number that is so low, so that has to be the key factor.

 

By the way,   I'm NOT defending it,  only attempting to explain it --- if I can?!?

 

[Track Guy]

17 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

• The prospect's yards per attempt with an adjustment for running backs who had fewer career carries than an average drafted running back.

• The prospect's AOEPS, which measures how much, on average, the prospect's team used him in the running game during his career relative to the usage of an average drafted running back during the same year of eligibility.

 

 

Yeah I was getting at the above points there, these are what would sink Kamara rather than his combine. While his 40 time wasn't incredible for a player his size (it shows on tape, he's got elite make you miss ability but his breakaway speed is average) his Sparq ranking put his athleticism at the 79.2% for NFL RBs... While a guy like Dalvin Cook clocked in around the 7th percentile.  Leonard Fournette would've scored way worse than Kamara too if he'd completed all of the drills. Where they destroy him is that their usage was good, where as Kamara played the complimentary role for most of his college career. 

[Rackeen305]

22 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

So,  the outside the box thinking website unveiled this new metric for running backs last year and they say they've tweaked it some...      next week they say they'll explain more about that...

 

But they use some formula including body weight at the combine with testing measurements at the combine:   40,  Vertical,  Broad and so on....

 

Here's how they rate the top 7...

 

1.    Fournette     his score is 142 but I don't know what that means.

2.    Cook            his score is 136

3.    Mixon           his score is 115

4.    Brian Hill      his score is 84

5.    Marlon Mack    his score is 80

6.   Christian McCaffrey   his score is 76.   

7.   Samme Perine       his score is 72

 

Listed as potential bust is the popular around here Alvin Kamara with a score of negative 30.

 

For predictive purposes,  I'd like to see how these scores would hold up using them on RB classes of the last 15 years.    If the formula holds,  then you should be able to plug in combine info for all the backs and see if this formula works or not.     Without seeing that,  I'm reluctant to endorse it.

 

But, I'd say this....    if we see Kamara falling and Hill and Mack going sooner than we might expect,  then that might suggest that NFL teams are buying into this....

 

Just food for thought....

 

I've only been a big fan of that Cook player.

[Tmoney]

On 4/21/2017 at 7:15 PM, NewColtsFan said:

 

So,  the outside the box thinking website unveiled this new metric for running backs last year and they say they've tweaked it some...      next week they say they'll explain more about that...

 

But they use some formula including body weight at the combine with testing measurements at the combine:   40,  Vertical,  Broad and so on....

 

Here's how they rate the top 7...

 

1.    Fournette     his score is 142 but I don't know what that means.

2.    Cook            his score is 136

3.    Mixon           his score is 115

4.    Brian Hill      his score is 84

5.    Marlon Mack    his score is 80

6.   Christian McCaffrey   his score is 76.   

7.   Samme Perine       his score is 72

 

Listed as potential bust is the popular around here Alvin Kamara with a score of negative 30.

 

For predictive purposes,  I'd like to see how these scores would hold up using them on RB classes of the last 15 years.    If the formula holds,  then you should be able to plug in combine info for all the backs and see if this formula works or not.     Without seeing that,  I'm reluctant to endorse it.

 

But, I'd say this....    if we see Kamara falling and Hill and Mack going sooner than we might expect,  then that might suggest that NFL teams are buying into this....

 

Just food for thought....

 

Where was Jeremy McNichols and Kareem Hunt and that list? Thanks man

[NewColtsFan]

27 minutes ago, Tmoney said:

Where was Jeremy McNichols and Kareem Hunt and that list? Thanks man

 

Honestly,   I have no idea,  and I'd love to know because I like them both.    I'd be happy if we drafted either.

 

The names I listed were all the names that were mentioned in the story....

 

Sorry,   wish I had more.     If I find more,  I'll be happy to pass it along....

 

[Qcolts]

Kamara reminds me of Lamar Miller. Good initial burst, but not much wiggle in the open field and goes down easily on contact.

[Tmoney]

15 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Honestly,   I have no idea,  and I'd love to know because I like them both.    I'd be happy if we drafted either.

 

The names I listed were all the names that were mentioned in the story....

 

Sorry,   wish I had more.     If I find more,  I'll be happy to pass it along....

 

My two favorite 4th round backs. They could very easily go late round 3 but let's hope at least one slides to one of our 4ths

[Happy2BeHere]

Are there some kind of metrics that tell us if they will turn out to be D-bags down the road like Adrian Petersen, Ray Rice, Aaron Hernandez, etc etc....that's what we really need.